WI: Stephen Harper resigned before the 2015 election

[CanadianTory]

Me and a friend were discussing this issue recently. I proposed that had Stephen Harper resigned sometime before the 2015 federal election, as was rumoured, than perhaps the party would have had a better shot at winning re-election. My friend, an avid supporter of the NDP, didn't think so, claiming that whoever the Tories had as leader wouldn't have changed the final outcome. She actually claims, oddly enough, that the NDP might have had a better chance at winning without Harper, although she didn't get the chance to elaborate on why.

So what do you all think? Would a different Tory leader and thus Prime Minister change the outcome of the election? Who would the Tories pick? Would Jason Kenney, with a shot at 24 Sussex without the waiting prove too tantalising? If Harper stepped down in 2014 would Jim Prentice make his move? What about the other Cabinet heavy hitters like James Moore or John Baird?

 

[Indicus]

Would Jason Kenney, with a shot at 24 Sussex without the waiting prove too tantalising?

Kenney, I feel, has too much baggage thanks to his role in immigration policy. My immigrant parents, for instance, loathe him with a passion thanks to that. So, if he becomes leader, he likely loses by an even bigger margin.

She actually claims, oddly enough, that the NDP might have had a better chance at winning without Harper, although she didn't get the chance to elaborate on why.

It really depends how long the campaign is. If it's shorter, the NDP wins a minority government. If it's slightly longer, the Conservatives use the Liberal-NDP split to win a minority government. If it's as long as OTL, Trudeau!!!!!

 

[CanadianTory]

Here's a list of some of the most probable candidates by the way

 

[CanadianTory]

Kenney, I feel, has too much baggage thanks to his role in immigration policy. My immigrant parents, for instance, loathe him with a passion thanks to that. So, if he becomes leader, he likely loses by an even bigger margin.

But with Kenney at the helm the party might actually avoid the whole "barbaric culture hotline" and Muslim fear tactics.

 

[Indicus]

But with Kenney at the helm the party might actually avoid the whole "barbaric culture hotline" and Muslim fear tactics.

With the architect of the Harper administration's immigration policy at the helm? I doubt it. Even if we ignore his racist record as immigration minister, he's still a prominent attack dog.

 

[CanadianTory]

With the architect of the Harper administration's immigration policy at the helm? I doubt it. Even if we ignore his racist record as immigration minister, he's still a prominent attack dog.

Well I'll strongly disagree on the racist record notion. In any case we can't assume any of these individuals will run the same campaign as Harper. They may surround themselves with different people.

 

[Indicus]

Well I'll strongly disagree on the racist record notion.

Indeed, but there's also perception at play here. He may be perceived as racist.

In any case we can't assume any of these individuals will run the same campaign as Harper. They may surround themselves with different people.

Perhaps, though I think at its core, the Canadian electorate were sick and tired of the Conservative Party, and the downturn was at play as well. If they'll be returned to power, it'll be with a weak minority. Unless, of course, they choose someone who has little connection to Harper.

 

[Gordian]

Did Jean Charest actually have a chance?

That would be interesting.

 

[EternalCynic]

Did Jean Charest actually have a chance?

That would be interesting.

So the election would be between a Quebec Liberal against a Quebec ex-Liberal, against yet another Quebec ex-Liberal.

Doubt the Conservative base would have been motivated.

 

[CanadianTory]

The only reason I included the likes of Charest is that the chance of automatically becoming Prime Minister would have been a much more attractive situation than waiting four years or eight years.

 

[Pericles]

I think so, Harper's personal unpopularity and that of his style and governance, and a desire for change from Harper, was key. However, there is a precedent of these changes being unsuccessful, see Prentice and John Turner. A clean break with Harper is needed. Mackay would be good, and he could run on the strong Harper record while jettisoning its more divisive aspects. Mackay minority in 2015-Liberals get more votes than NDP but fall behind them in seats. He needs to be elected early 2014 though because otherwise he is unable to build his own brand and record and like Turner gets tied to his predecessor.

 

[CanadianTory]

I think the earliest Harper would leave is mid-to-late 2014 and not a moment sooner.

And is MacKay the inevitable choice?

 

[Great Laxit]

What about Kellie Leitch (before the barbaric cultural practices hotline), did she have a shot?

 

[CanadianTory]

What about Kellie Leitch (before the barbaric cultural practices hotline), did she have a shot?

That's the only reason she has any name recognition. She doesn't have a chance now and she didn't before. She'd still probably run though.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I was puzzled at the time why Harper stayed through the election campaign. The polls were not encouraging and voter fatigue makes it difficult, though not impossible, for governments to stay on as long as the Conservatives were going to if they had won. And presumably he was going to quit anyway in a few years. Why not move up the date and not have to go through with the campaign? He had pretty much accomplished all that he could plausibly have accomplished in his political career. By 2014, he would have been Prime Minister for eight years.

I suspect, despite "Canadian Tory"'s post, the Conservative bench was just not that deep. Harper was trying to avoid a Kim Campbell situation where someone fairly shallow and unprepared, or viewed as such, was trying to defend a government past its sell-by date. There is a long history of these sorts of maneuvers in anglophone parliamentary systems, and they usually fail. Harper staying on at least limited the downside. And they could have won, even a couple weeks away from election day they had a good chance of pulling an upset, its just that everything would have had to line up right.

The NDP friend of the original poster was right. "Harper Derangement Sydrome" has always been worth at least 4% of the vote for the Liberals, and most of that comes out of the Dippers.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

You either have people who are deeply tarred with the Harper brush, many with major gaffes of their own; or provincial politicians; or you have people who aren't from the Reform camp, and probably thus can't win.

While Harper was wildly unpopular with many Canadians, he was pretty darned popular with his base, and most of that base would be less enthusiastic about a replacement.

Resigning during or just before the election gets the Tories the worst of both worlds. They're unlikely to swing back many of the disaffected voters who went Liberal or NDP, AND they're likely to weaken their base.

The only real option I see that might try to steer between Scylla and Charybdis is Brad Wall, since most people hove/had no clue what a disaster he is. (Including most of the people in SK who voted for him.) Him as PM is a really, really scary thought, IMO.

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Long and short of it? I suspect your NDP friend was right.

 

[CanadianTory]

I'm actually a fan of Brad Wall, but I respect your opinion. But if Harper did resign is there a clear successor? I doubt Wall or Charest would go for it really, most likely someone from cabinet.

 

[CanadianTory]

Bump?

 

[Pericles]

How about Harper resigns March 2014, and a convention is held in August. MacKay narrowly beats Kenney and Prentice, and while he only gets a very slim majority in the PV he gets substantially more points due to the party election system. He takes office on September 1, 2014 as Tory leader and PM. What happens next?

 

[CanadianTory]

How about Harper resigns March 2014, and a convention is held in August. MacKay narrowly beats Kenney and Prentice, and while he only gets a very slim majority in the PV he gets substantially more points due to the party election system. He takes office on September 1, 2014 as Tory leader and PM. What happens next?

Whoever becomes leader and PM after Harper will probably implement a string of policies designed to make the government look good. You know, get some of that goodwill back on their side.

Expect more TV interviews for sure. If it is MacKay, he might try and pull off some macho man moments for the cameras like Trudeau.