If the USSR had successfully reformed in 1991 and made peace with the USA, what events could spark a second cold war in 2005?

[Seaboigium]

In "Project: Vigilant", my alt-history project, the planners of the August Coup all conveniently died in a plane crash and Gorbachev's "New Union Treaty" was successfully signed on August 20th, 1991 between the supportive SSRs. Likewise, in P.V, the name "Union of Soviet Socialist Republics" remains in place instead of Gorbachev's proposed "Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics".

On December 26th, 1991, the USA and USSR sign the "46th Treaty of Paris / Treaty of Paris XLVI" which officially ends the Cold War by ceasing hostilities between the USSR and the USA, however, this peace is not to last.

Following the September 11th, 2001 Attacks, the USSR joins the War on Terror, however, in 2005, some, currently undetermined event or series of events causes the USSR and the USA to resume hostilities with one another after 13 years of peace.

I need ideas and suggestions for what could spark P.V's Second Cold War.

 

[22000 Kevin]

Following the September 11th, 2001 Attacks, the USSR joins the War on Terror, however, in 2005, some, currently undetermined event or series of events causes the USSR and the USA to resume hostilities with one another after 13 years of peace.

I guess the best way to resume hostilities is for the US President to expand NATO into the former Warsaw Pact states in Eastern Europe and have the situation escalate from there.

 

[Dancing Fool]

simmering issue and background — perhaps from the Russian Currency Crisis of Aug. 1998, Russia feels we were part of the problem rather than part of the solution. Fairly or unfairly, that’s the perception [no idea whether this was the perception in real life]

rupture — race quicker to the 2008 near-collapse of major financial institutions. Don’t know if you bring it all the way back to 2005 like you want for your timeline, but you might get close.

 

[jsb]

I guess the best way to resume hostilities is for the US President to expand NATO into the former Warsaw Pact states in Eastern Europe and have the situation escalate from there.

I question if US president is really at fault? Was ex WP (and ex USSR) not scared of Russia coming back from the start, and its behaviour did and has done nothing to change that? Fundamentally, the new nations are free to act as sovereign nations, or they are occupied by Russia? If Russia can't be bothered to act to keep them happy and stop tensions building from its side, then It's equally if not more to blame? Look at the size of the NATO forces in the Baltics or WP for example pre Ukraine war they were tiny like a few hundred light infantry who would last a few hours and just a trip wire compared to the much larger forces Russian kept in say break away regions in Transnistria or its forces in Kaliningrad proper etc?

 

[Mynock]

Iraq maybe, the USSR gets to posture over an illegal invasion and wins back a good position on the world stage?

 

[Crueldwarf]

Same as in our timeline: NATO expansion, cancelation of ABM treaty, equivalents to interventions in Serbia and Iraq.