AHQ: How powerful could an independent Ireland be?

[Count of Crisco]

So lets say the Vikings bring about a unified Irish state sometime in the 9th to 11th century either through their own rule or by causing the Irish to join together to drive them out. However it happens Ireland is an independent kingdom by the time of the Norman conquest of England. Lets then say that later either the Anglo-Normans never invade Ireland due to the butterflies, or if they do they are repulsed and leave Ireland largely alone for lets say a century to allow the kingdom to stabilize.

My question is, however it comes about, how powerful would a late medieval or early modern Irish state be? Could it become a serious counter to the rising English power? Or would it like Scotland eventually crumble against English power. Maybe Ireland allies with Scotland against England, or becomes a key English ally? Maybe they are close to the French? Could Ireland play a role in the exploration and colonization of the new world? Or is it destined to be a backwater, possibly conquered by England?

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Are we allowed personal unions? Because an Irish Scottish union in the early middle ages could be a decently powerful affair, and if it's got a Viking descended ruling class, it's not unlikely that it'd be angling for Iceland. Unless they get Norway as well that's probably the limit until new world discoveries begin.

Personal unions with anyone else would likely result in a monarch whose focus is on his more central properties- Scotlands the only one where I can imagine the monarchs main seat staying on the island of Ireland.

 

[Count of Crisco]

Are we allowed personal unions? Because an Irish Scottish union in the early middle ages could be a decently powerful affair, and if it's got a Viking descended ruling class, it's not unlikely that it'd be angling for Iceland. Unless they get Norway as well that's probably the limit until new world discoveries begin.

Personal unions with anyone else would likely result in a monarch whose focus is on his more central properties- Scotlands the only one where I can imagine the monarchs main seat staying on the island of Ireland.

Works for me. Maybe we see the Gaelic union (?) Ally with France against England in the hundred years war resulting in more limited English power later on.

 

[NotAMyth]

Are we allowed personal unions? Because an Irish Scottish union in the early middle ages could be a decently powerful affair, and if it's got a Viking descended ruling class, it's not unlikely that it'd be angling for Iceland. Unless they get Norway as well that's probably the limit until new world discoveries begin.

Personal unions with anyone else would likely result in a monarch whose focus is on his more central properties- Scotlands the only one where I can imagine the monarchs main seat staying on the island of Ireland.

Going off on a tangent, but I feel PUs never tend to live up to their potential, especially in the early to middle medieval period.

Ireland specifically would need a monarch who is recognized as Irish and lives in the country for any chance of centralization, or else it would just be wasted potential as was otl, with all wannabe high kings just commanding those clans allied to them while the rest pay lip service.

A scottish-Irish union would only be useful if it's a union of states, not just a personal one. And that too only after Ireland has obtained some tradition of centralization.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Works for me. Maybe we see the Gaelic union (?) Ally with France against England in the hundred years war resulting in more limited English power later on.

Gaeldom might be a more suitable nme

 

[Count of Crisco]

Gaeldom might be a more suitable nme

Yeah my GU idea was just something so I didn't have to type Irish-Scottish union out on my phone.

 

[Elfwine]

My question is, however it comes about, how powerful would a late medieval or early modern Irish state be? Could it become a serious counter to the rising English power? Or would it like Scotland eventually crumble against English power. Maybe Ireland allies with Scotland against England, or becomes a key English ally? Maybe they are close to the French? Could Ireland play a role in the exploration and colonization of the new world? Or is it destined to be a backwater, possibly conquered by England?

My suspicions, in order:
1) Probably more like Scotland, although I'm not sure I'd really describe Scotland as entirely "crumbling" here.
2) Probably not really consistently either, in that most alliances of the era don't really reflect "we're allied with these guys always, and never these guys" as much as circumstances.
3) Possible, if unlikely to be much more beneficial to Ireland than the Auld Alliance was to Scotland.
4) Potentially, if possibly not an especially early one. Ireland doesn't have a lot of population looking for new lands to settle in this timeline, I think.
5) Not necessarily a backwater, possibly conquered (or marriage-absorbed) by England.

A united Ireland is probably more of a "an interesting factor in the politics of the isles" than "a major European power", but that still has some interesting potential to be very much not OTL in some ways.

Edited to add:
And a lot of "possibly"s here because little is "the only possible/probable" outcome with a POD this early. One could definitely write a French-Irish alliance in a timeline with this, but whether or not it would be likely depends on the specific events that lead up to it - I don't think it's by any means an obvious choice for France, but it's not by any means unreasonable to have the Irish of this timeline offer one and it may be appealing in the moment they make that offer (like with Scotland), for example.

 

[Ivan Lupo]

Depending on how powerful an Irish kingdom becomes, it would likely be participating in a merry-go-round of alliances and political marriages between Scotland and England, depending on the political circumstances. The Isle of Man possibly becomes a flashpoint at various times. The Welsh may end up unifying as a result, or else have their different princes backed by English (or Anglo-Norman), Scottish, and Irish kings.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Geographically Ireland is well suited to be a forerunner in the colonization of America, assuming England doesn't conquer it.

 

[Maeglin]

An England screw would help here - have the Saxon Kingdoms never unify. Maybe go back and stop Pope Gregory I - if you can stop the Gregorian Mission, that means that England's eventual conversion to Christianity likely comes from Ireland, rather than from Rome.

 

[Elfwine]

Geographically Ireland is well suited to be a forerunner in the colonization of America, assuming England doesn't conquer it.

This does raise a question. What's Ireland's supply of ship-building timber (and other materials) like if we go back to around 1500?

 

[DanMcCollum]

This does raise a question. What's Ireland's supply of ship-building timber (and other materials) like if we go back to around 1500?

I found an interesting source. It seems that the wood cover for Ireland in 1600 was roughly 2-12 percent depending on how one reads surviving records. What really was th death knell for the surviving Irish woodland was the need for charcoal. However, I've also read that the forests were definitely used to help build the royal navy as well as for home construction during the 18th and 19th centuries. So it seems like they still had significant enough amounts of timber to help support a navy during the 1500s

A brief history of Ireland's native woodlands - Coillte

They covered 80% of our island following the last Ice Age, but Ireland's primeval ancient forests had all but disappeared by the foundation of the State. How did it happen? In this guest blog, Richard Nairn, ecologist and author of Wildwoods, takes us on a whistle-stop tour of the history of our...

www.coillte.ie

 

[Gloss]

I found an interesting source. It seems that the wood cover for Ireland in 1600 was roughly 2-12 percent depending on how one reads surviving records. What really was th death knell for the surviving Irish woodland was the need for charcoal. However, I've also read that the forests were definitely used to help build the royal navy as well as for home construction during the 18th and 19th centuries. So it seems like they still had significant enough amounts of timber to help support a navy during the 1500s

A brief history of Ireland's native woodlands - Coillte

They covered 80% of our island following the last Ice Age, but Ireland's primeval ancient forests had all but disappeared by the foundation of the State. How did it happen? In this guest blog, Richard Nairn, ecologist and author of Wildwoods, takes us on a whistle-stop tour of the history of our...

www.coillte.ie

Charcoal? Do Irish have accessible coal mines? The exponential increase in the usage of coal in England allowed them to be less dependent on wood and also surpass the ecological limit of their their country(and arguably this probably is one of the factors that started early industrialization)

 

[Arkenfolm]

Charcoal? Do Irish have accessible coal mines? The exponential increase in the usage of coal in England allowed them to be less dependent on wood and also surpass the ecological limit of their their country(and arguably this probably is one of the factors that started early industrialization)

Peat was one of the major fuel sources, IIRC there's not much coal in Ireland which has always limited industrialization.

 

[Clandango]

Peat was one of the major fuel sources, IIRC there's not much coal in Ireland which has always limited industrialization.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Charcoal? Do Irish have accessible coal mines? The exponential increase in the usage of coal in England allowed them to be less dependent on wood and also surpass the ecological limit of their their country(and arguably this probably is one of the factors that started early industrialization)

Not really - the Irish into very modern times, relied heavily on peat (I think it wasn't until the 90s that efforts were taken to really preserve the remaining beat bogs for environmental and cultural purposes). Now, peat is actually a pretty good fuel source, but yeah: very little coal to mention. Now, if our Irish Kingdom manages to take Wales at some point ...

 

[durante]

Not really - the Irish into very modern times, relied heavily on peat (I think it wasn't until the 90s that efforts were taken to really preserve the remaining beat bogs for environmental and cultural purposes). Now, peat is actually a pretty good fuel source, but yeah: very little coal to mention. Now, if our Irish Kingdom manages to take Wales at some point ...

Or Scotland, for that matter.

 

[Gloss]

Or Scotland, for that matter.

At that point they could just conquer all of Britain

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Not really - the Irish into very modern times, relied heavily on peat (I think it wasn't until the 90s that efforts were taken to really preserve the remaining beat bogs for environmental and cultural purposes). Now, peat is actually a pretty good fuel source, but yeah: very little coal to mention. Now, if our Irish Kingdom manages to take Wales at some point ...

If they can colonize North America, they'd have access to plenty of wood and coal.

 

[Clandango]

If they can colonize North America, they'd have access to plenty of wood and coal.

They need the wood for ships to get over then. At which point I am unsure if thy would be shipping coal over the Atlantic. It had a lot of use powering certain ships, but seldom the wooden types.