WI: Vichy Without Petain

Whiteshore

Whiteshore

Historically, Philippe Petain was the leader of the collaborator French State after the Fall of France and the Armistice with Petain, hitherto revered as a war hero, being someone who permanently stained his reputation with his collaboration with Nazi Germany, authoritarian domestic politics, and cooperation in the Holocaust. However, as Petain was 84 years old in 1940, a question I might as well ask would be what the Vichy Government would have looked like without Petain as a result of him dying just after the June 22 Armistice (and before the National Assembly voted to give him full powers) from a stroke or heart attack brought about by old age? Who would have replaced Petain as the leader of the French State, especially as Albert Lebrun was nominally President until July 11 when Petain became Head of State? What would “Vichy without Petain” have looked like compared to OTL’s Vichy Regime?

For starters, regarding the question of how it would affect the war, I’d imagine that this Vichy without Petain would probably be less “legitimate” without having a prestigious war hero as its top leader with how I doubt Laval or Darlan could be able to gather the initial popular support Petain did due to his actions in the Great War.
 
Last edited:
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

Sekhmet_D said:
Would there even BE Vichy without Petain?
Click to expand...
This is basically a “what if Petain died shortly after June 22 Armistice with Germany“ scenario. And well, Vichy does make a good shorthand for the French Government after June 22, even if it wouldn’t technically be accurate.
 

BeardedHoplite

Sekhmet_D said:
Would there even BE Vichy without Petain?
Click to expand...
Oh absolutely. France's defeat in 1940, in a nutshell, was a failure of national will. The collaboration stains the Vichy government, but it was 100% the legitimate successor to the third republic in 1940.

Hell, Free France only got traction since the British supported them to take the French colonies out of the equation. It was only the allies' success, Case Anton and de Gaulle being de Gaulle that built up free France as a legitimate contender.
 

thaddeus

Donor
Whiteshore said:
For starters, regarding the question of how it would affect the war, I’d imagine that this Vichy without Petain would probably be less “legitimate” without having a prestigious war hero as its top leader with how I doubt Laval or Darlan could be able to gather the initial popular support Petain did due to his actions in the Great War.
Click to expand...

think the continued control over the French fleet would, if possible, be even more important and Adm. Darlan would be the leader.
 
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

thaddeus said:
think the continued control over the French fleet would, if possible, be even more important and Adm. Darlan would be the leader.
Click to expand...
On that note, would whoever takes over Vichy had Petain died shortly after the Armistice still become Chief of State or would Albert Lebrun remain as the nominal President during the occupation instead?
 

thaddeus

Donor
thaddeus said:
think the continued control over the French fleet would, if possible, be even more important and Adm. Darlan would be the leader.
Click to expand...

Whiteshore said:
On that note, would whoever takes over Vichy had Petain died shortly after the Armistice still become Chief of State or would Albert Lebrun remain as the nominal President during the occupation instead?
Click to expand...

IDK Lebrun was elected again in 1939, so he might be deemed useful to retain as a figurehead (or fall guy)
 

Lalli

Probably Germnans just would manage to put even weaker puppet ruler. Much wouldn't change beside that Petáin would has much better reputation.
 
Nell_Lucifer

Nell_Lucifer

The Germans at this time could not afford to simply install a puppet, as they rightfully feared antagonizing the French (more than already) would result in the defection of the French Fleet to the British and the continuation of hostilities with the other parts of the Empire. They were extremely concerned about getting cobalt and other minerals from Africa.
 

NoMommsen

... seems an important quation is somewhat forgotten atm in this discussion:
How Petain IOTL actually came into his position and who should have replaced him in that.​

IOTL he was 'asked' to enter the french goverment and did so as Deputy Prime Minister on 18th May.
Well before 'Dunkirk) and 'Case Red' beginning.
With his insistance for seeking armistice even before him being made head of the goverment on 16th June he was rather instrumental for this actually happen - both him becomming Prime Minister and armistice.

With him NOT in place IMHO there are quite good chances, that the french goverment flees and set up itself in exile or in a Bretagne redout or in North Africa become very likely.
If there would than be a French Goverment at Vichy at all ... this time with very much less legitimation and this time a truly 'only puppet' by german making.
 
Nell_Lucifer

Nell_Lucifer

NoMommsen said:
... seems an important quation is somewhat forgotten atm in this discussion:
How Petain IOTL actually came into his position and who should have replaced him in that.​

IOTL he was 'asked' to enter the french goverment and did so as Deputy Prime Minister on 18th May.
Well before 'Dunkirk) and 'Case Red' beginning.
With his insistance for seeking armistice even before him being made head of the goverment on 16th June he was rather instrumental for this actually happen - both him becomming Prime Minister and armistice.

With him NOT in place IMHO there are quite good chances, that the french goverment flees and set up itself in exile or in a Bretagne redout or in North Africa become very likely.
If there would than be a French Goverment at Vichy at all ... this time with very much less legitimation and this time a truly 'only puppet' by german making.
Click to expand...
The National Convention voted in majority for signing the armistice so without Petain I don't see them wanting to do a 180 when the armistice was just being signed between France and Germany.

It wasn't just Petain who wanted to surrender, it was quite the sentiment throughout all of France.

Edit: A more likely divergence from OTL is Darlan having a free hand in dealing with the British after the Mers el Kebir attack, I am unsure if he actually wanted to go to war against Britain, but most of the actions he would have wanted to take were curtailed by Petain, who did not want to escalate. The only action he got sanctioned to do was the bombing of Gibraltar, which got voted in the Nation Convention to be carried out.
 
Last edited:
Whiteshore

Whiteshore

Nell_Lucifer said:
Edit: A more likely divergence from OTL is Darlan having a free hand in dealing with the British after the Mers el Kebir attack, I am unsure if he actually wanted to go to war against Britain, but most of the actions he would have wanted to take were curtailed by Petain, who did not want to escalate. The only action he got sanctioned to do was the bombing of Gibraltar, which got voted in the Nation Convention to be carried out.
Click to expand...
So, Vichy would be an outright Axis Power ITTL? Would that have resulted in the Collaborationistes being more prominent?
 

Anarch King of Dipsodes

The armistice was signed on 22 June, and took effect on 25 June. On 10 July, the National Assembly ratified the armistice and then voted 569-80 to grant all powers to Pétain, who was then Prime Minister ("President of the Council of Ministers" was the actual title).

If Pétain falls over dead on 30 June - the armistice is a done deal.

Who becomes Prime Minister? The likely candidates are his four top cabinet members:
  • Camille Chautemps (Deputy Prime Minister)
  • Pierre Laval (Foreign Minister)
  • Pierre-Étienne Flandin (can't find his specific position)
  • François Darlan (Minister for the Navy)
Chautemps, Laval, and Flandin had all been Prime Minister in the 1930s; most recently Chautemps in 1938.

I think Chautemps is most likely. Weygand is Minister of War, and objected strenuously to Laval as FM.

The first big knock-on is that neither Chautemps or anyone else will be granted unlimited powers. No one else had Pétain's stature. The politicos will continue to squabble (in Clermont-Ferrand; they moved to Vichy on 1 June).

Another is that Britain will change or at least suspend its current plans till they see who replaces Pétain and what France will do. This may affect CATAPULT (already planned for 3 July). The British will reiterate their demand that French warships move to British ports.

OTL, when the British showed up at Mers-el-Kébir, they gave the French three choices, including moving to the French West Indies. Darlan had told the fleet commander Gensoul that sailing to America was acceptable. But Gensoul did not report that part of the offer to the Vichy government, and Darlan was at his country home incommunicado.

ITTL - with intrigue continuing, Darlan will stay with the government and in charge of the Navy. He may demand to know exactly what the British asked. If he learns that sailing to the West Indies was offered, he will very likely direct Gensoul to comply. That of course radically changes the dynamic throughout the French colonial empire - as does the absence of Pétain as head of the regime.

There is also the question of what the Germans do. OTL it was clear that Pétain wanted France out of the war and was hostile to Britain, and that he was completely in charge. ITTL, it's Chautemps (probably) - but only for the moment. The Germans would prefer Laval, but that won't be popular. If they force Laval on France, that could spur additional French officials to declare for Free France - maybe even Darlan, who didn't like Laval, and might be in trouble for ordering the fleet to the West Indies in compliance with the British demands.
 

NoMommsen

Anarch King of Dipsodes said:
...
Another is that Britain will change or at least suspend its current plans till they see who replaces Pétain and what France will do.
...
Click to expand...
🤔 ... why?
Wouldn't Pétain be seen due to said stature as a 'stronger' leader more capable to control the assets still in hand (the french fleet) than a bunch of unpopular, 'squabbling' politicinas 'used' to the for its instability only too well known 3rd Republíque politicians who were - more-or-less - responsible for the french defeat?
With them at the 'helm' would the danger of the french fleet ending in germna hands not even be bigger?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top