WI the Philippines joined the British Empire?

[David S Poepoe]

Just came across an excerpt from a Filipino history book, Sonia Zaide's The Philippines: A Unique Nation, that as early as August 1933 Filipino President Quezon was prepared to go to London and ask for admission into the British Commonwealth of Nations. In 1935 secret talks began with the British Government and high level talks between Quezon and Foreign Minister Athony Eden were planned in 1936.

Quezon was moved to suggest such a agreement because of bad relations between the Philippines and the United States. Quezon was especially worried about pressure groups in Washington that lobbied for the US withdrawal from the Philippines and its abandonment in the face of Japanese militarization.

The US learned about the talks in early 1937 and were able to put a stop to them. But what if they didn't?

 

[HueyLong]

Then the British back down later, under US pressure.

They won't just let the Phillippines become a British Commonwealth member, especially not before the war in Europe removes the tensions between the two.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Then the British back down later, under US pressure.

They won't just let the Phillippines become a British Commonwealth member, especially not before the war in Europe removes the tensions between the two.

What exactly does Commonwealth membership entail? I understand that several African nations that were never British colonies joined. What would be the differences if the Phillipines were a Commonwealth member? Why would that spark tensions between Britain and the U.S.?

 

[HueyLong]

The Commonwealth was a bit different back then than now, it was much less loose. Depending on its status, it would be put on economic deals and partial control by the British.

The big thing would be economic. Britain would make the Phillippines a prime place for UK investors, as it was in all Commonwealths. Meanwhile, the US had spent quite a few years establishing good terms for trade and for their investors. Raw materials were exported without tariffs, and American goods were imported free of tariffs. The American corporations and businessmen involved would lose out witha Commonwealth hold on the Phillippines. That would cause tensions.

Also, military issues come into play. In the Pacific and Far East, the Phillipines were a beachead and center of US strategy for quite awhile. Giving it up to the British would cause ire from quite a few.

 

[DoleScum]

Associate member status within the Commonwealth in the 1930s would have essentially made the Phillipines a British protectorate.

After 1932 Britain had also resurected the Imperial Tariff system - something which caused considerable tension with the US and prompted the drafting of the infamous 'War Plan Red'.

Shutting US trade out of a former colony, at a time of global economic depression and robbing the US of a base in the western pacific would certainly have ruffled feathers in Washington.

I doubt that the British would just 'back down'. We're talking about the 1930s not 2006. The US would more than likely bluster about British economic protectionism, but ultimately would be able to do little to make the British change their minds without seriously threatening war.

 

[HueyLong]

They backed down a few years earlier to Hitler. They will certainly back down against a serious threat (the US), and especially when they are the expansionist. It would be political suicide to try and justify pushing tension against the US or expanding the Empire's defense, which were already stretched.

 

[JLCook]

Give the Phillipines to Great Britain with Japan hot for war?

In other words, remove all US interest in the area and saddle Great Britain with yet another major defense obligation just before WWII?

While the US might not see things that way at the time, the obligation to defend the Phillipines against an almost assured Japanese attack (If you couldn't see it coming in 1936, you just weren't looking) and stretching the British beyond the breaking point would make things very interesting,

When war came to the Western Pacific, Japan would drive to the gates of India and the SHores of Australia and the USA might never even become involved.

I am sure that the Phillipinos would be estaticlly happy with the results of joining the commonwealth. They'd be overrun by Japanese within 4-5 years and the British might actually be unable to eventually throw the Japanese out!

 

[kingdobbs]

When war came to the Western Pacific, Japan would drive to the gates of India and the SHores of Australia and the USA might never even become involved.

I doubt that the US would be kept out of the war at all. For one, they still would maintain possession of Guam, Wake Island, and Samoa (more a S. Pacific than W. Pacific possession, but would certainly be a threat if Japan manages to overrun Australia); furthermore, the Aleutians do project out pretty close to Japan, and the US still has the Hawaiians (including Midway).

This doesn't even get into the business of the oil embargo the US held over Japan. Not having the Philippines probably does jack to change this notion.

What it does do, though, and I would say the speculation on this point is correct, is take a major base of operations out of the US hands; where in OTL MacArthur was able to retreat from the Philippines to Australia relatively quickly, this scenario would probably make it so the US has precious little force in the region (assuming something wasn't negotiated in Lend-Lease, another possibility) and that any American force working in the Western Pacific is going to have to come from Hawaii (which would be decimated as in OTL) or from the West Coast. Meaning Britain has a much longer period where they're, for all practical reasons, on their own. The consequences to Australia, naturally, are not good.

 

[The Sandman]

Assuming that the Japanese have a moment of sanity, however, they won't bother attacking those US possessions. The reason why the Philippines had to be neutralized was that they had a sizeable concentration of American military power sitting right across the sea routes between Japan and the Dutch East Indies. Without a need to remove that American presence, the Japanese would simply assume that grabbing the oil fields on Sumatra, Java and Borneo would render the embargo issue moot.

 

[stevep]

In other words, remove all US interest in the area and saddle Great Britain with yet another major defense obligation just before WWII?

While the US might not see things that way at the time, the obligation to defend the Phillipines against an almost assured Japanese attack (If you couldn't see it coming in 1936, you just weren't looking) and stretching the British beyond the breaking point would make things very interesting,

When war came to the Western Pacific, Japan would drive to the gates of India and the SHores of Australia and the USA might never even become involved.

I am sure that the Phillipinos would be estaticlly happy with the results of joining the commonwealth. They'd be overrun by Japanese within 4-5 years and the British might actually be unable to eventually throw the Japanese out!

Actually, from what I read about this a while back that was the basic problem. The Philippines government was interested in membership because they didn't feel they could rely on US to defend them but Britain felt it didn't have the resources to take on extra responsibilities.

Actually trade would not have been a major problem for the US. Not only were British tariffs far lower than the US ones but the terms that the US set for the Philippines independence gave them considerable access to the islands markets and I expect the US would have insisted in maintaining that. The Philippines were pretty upset about the conditions they had to accepted. Actually one of the main forces for the island's independence was various commercial interests in the US who didn't want it competing with their products.

Steve

 

[Wendell]

The Philippines would be interesting as a Commonwealth realm...

but any realistic POD for this, or the initial suggestion starting this thread needs to be in 1898 or ealier unless the Americans are reduced as a factor in the world entirely.

The Philippines jumping to Britain in the 1930's is not only a gross vilation of the Monroe Doctrine, but it also likely butterflies Pearl Harbor into Subic Bay...

 

[David S Poepoe]

The Philippines jumping to Britain in the 1930's is not only a gross vilation of the Monroe Doctrine, but it also likely butterflies Pearl Harbor into Subic Bay...

Monroe Doctrine? That only pertained to Latin America. There was probably some other American 'doctrine' that delt with the Philippines.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Actually, from what I read about this a while back that was the basic problem. The Philippines government was interested in membership because they didn't feel they could rely on US to defend them but Britain felt it didn't have the resources to take on extra responsibilities.

The U.S. not defend the Phillipines from a Japanese attack? That's unthinkable!

 

[Wendell]

Monroe Doctrine? That only pertained to Latin America. There was probably some other American 'doctrine' that delt with the Philippines.

The great thing about the Monroe Doctrine is that its meaning and extension shifts from time to time. That said, we are talking about a U.S. colony here.

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Huey Long
They backed down a few years earlier to Hitler. They will certainly back down against a serious threat (the US), and especially when they are the expansionist. It would be political suicide to try and justify pushing tension against the US or expanding the Empire's defense, which were already stretched.

In 1937 Britain didn't back down to Hitler, unless you count him breaking the military limitations of the Versaille Treaty. And remember, Hitler never demanded anything that belonged to British. They let him all he wanted, because it didn't belong to them. If in 1938 in Munich Hitler demanded some part of former German, later British colonies in Africa, they would flatly refused. But giving away a part of small, Central European country, with no connections to Britain? Why not?
However I agree, if US seriously threatened Britain with war, Lodon would probably back down. British really wanted peace and weren't interested in starting a war.
And if not? British Empire had a strong base much closer to Philippines than US (Australia), Royal Navy could stand against US Navy. It is also interesting to know, what the people of Philippines would do (considering they weren't too fond of Americans). Would they accept being part of British Empire? But US/British war would be fought not only in Pacific area, but also on Atlantic and in Canada. In such clash of the Titans I would put my money on US (but not too much).

 

[HARRY]

It wouldn't be to hard to sell the idea to the American people. Hey why are we spending our tax dollars to send our soldiers to some islands full of chinese mexicans when me, uncle Joe and cousin Pete can't find a job darn it. Besides we are Americas, we not some imperial colonial power like the Brits and other european countries.

Congress cuts a deal so American companies have business as usual and the troops go home. The British send a regiment or two from India to train the locals and the Royal Navy flogs off a couple of older ships to start a navy. Other commonwealth navies (Australia, New Zealand & Canada) send ships over to establish ties with last member and familiarise themself with the island.

in 1939 when war breaks out with Germany, Phillipine soldiers fight along side Anzac troops in Greece, Crete and North Africa. As the Japanese army heads south these battle harded troops much like Australians are recalled home. Unlike the Aussies they are not rerouted, as Hong Kong falls it is the Phillipine navy that aids the evacuation of allied troops. These troops along with returned Phillipine soldiers aid the Free French Forces in Indochina hold back the Japanese invading forces.

 

[Earling]

The US couldn't muster the desire to go to war with Japan as that country was running riot through China murdering as they went... but would somehow launch an all out war if the Phillipines decided they really wanted to leave?

I doubt it. If the idea cannot be quashed politically a deal for leaving the place, possibly in exchange for continued US basing rights seems the most likely outcome.

I don't think that Britain would ever fight over the issue but frankly I doubt the US would either.

 

[Chengar Qordath]

The British taking a US colony would not make Americans happy; if it comes off as an aggressive on Britain's part to the US public there would be plenty of support for defending the Phillipines. I suppose a lot of it depends on just how events play out, I doubt things would get to the point of war simply because neither the US nor the UK really wants a war. That said, even a diplomatic clash between the two would probably have an effect on World War II; I could see Lend-Lease being at least somewhat delayed as relations between the US and Britain would be a bit less cordial after such an incident.

Also, if it did come to war a full military mobilization would quite firmly yank the US out of the Depression, as it did historically a few years later. Creating millions of new jobs in the army always helps to counter unemployment.

 

[Agrippa]

I could certainly see the Philippines joining the Commonwealth after independence (which I believe had already been set for July 4th, 1946 in the 1930s). The United States' willingness to grant the Philippines independence was partially driven by the desire to escape its defense committments there. The US had known for decades that the Philippines were utterly undefendable and knew that any garrison there would be destroyed by the Japanese. The necessity of throwing a rescue force across the Pacific had also made the life of USN strategists a living hell since the turn of the century. So, if the British Commonwealth wants to stretch its defenses more and defend the Philippines, good for them. As long as the US can trade with the Philippines on favorable terms, the US won't care.

Now, things might be different if the Philippines became a member of the Commonwealth in the '30s or early '40s, while it was still a colony or at least not fully independent. That would certainly ruffle feathers in the US as a clear breach of American sovereignty. Can you picture Roosevelt's reaction at a British Empire that is not divesting itself of colonies but actually expanding? I doubt we would see war, but FDR might beat the anti-imperialism drum even louder than he did in OTL.

 

[DoleScum]

Now, things might be different if the Philippines became a member of the Commonwealth in the '30s or early '40s, while it was still a colony or at least not fully independent.

What was the constitutional relationship between the US and the Philippines during the period?

I'm assuming that the Philippines was effectively a US protectorate and that the US dictated foreign policy and occupied military bases, but stayed out of domestic politics.

Can anyone fill us in as to whether the Philipinno Government would be able to negotiate with the UK and an independent power?