WI: No Blank Cheque in 1914

[Barbarossa Rotbart]

What would have happened if Germany did not give Austria-Hungary the 'Blank Cheque'? Will that change anything or will there still be a World War I?

 

[Devolved]

What would have happened if Germany did not give Austria-Hungary the 'Blank Cheque'? Will that change anything or will there still be a World War I?

No war in 1914.

 

[benben]

Either AH sends a less outrageous ultimatum to Serbia, or accepts the final Serbia response, and WWI is averted.

 

[Patton]

I argee with Devolved. Austria-Hungry knew that the Russians would support Serbia if they attacked and there was no way Austria-Hungry was going to fight the Serbs and the Russians without German support. As such Austria stands down and WW1 is avoided for the time being.

 

[The Oncoming Storm]

Either AH sends a less outrageous ultimatum to Serbia, or accepts the final Serbia response, and WWI is averted.

Pretty much this, Serbia conceeded something like 95% of the ultimatum, Wilhelm was positively gushing in his praise for them and if I can remember the section in Castles of Steel correctly, he seemed to think this was sufficient to avoid war, but A-H pushed for 100%. Had Willy said "Nein!" at this point then it's doubtful that A-H would have invaded Serbia without the certainty of Germany to protect it from Russia.

 

[Catspoke]

The parts refused by the Serbians were parts 5 and 6, relating to how the investigation of the shooting was to proceed. (below). Of course that was the "meat" of the ultimatum, the rest of the ultimatum largely accepted by Serbia was not so important, so wasn't really a diplomatic victory for Austria.

After receiving the reply Austria (and Germany) could have taken this whole issue to a meeting of the great powers, probably resulting in international representitives from various powers helping do 5 and 6 below. If Germany avoids this and other opportunities to start war (Armenia is the next hot spot) through 1916, she wont be able to start a war because Russia is too strong. Russia will still be fearful of Germany (perhaps the only thing on the outside of Russia she needs to be fearful of) due to Germany's fearsome warlike reputation and thus likely the peace of Europe will be preserved for quite some time.

But sadly at the end of the day, there were certain Austrians and Germans who thought that this might be a good time to push war, combined with just diplomatic bungling (Germans mainly) that made war happen.

A couple of good references I have read that were interesting about that time. The first one is sort of alternate history with scenerios of what might have happened if no OTL assasination.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Lost-History-1914-Reconsidering/dp/0802778119

http://www.amazon.com/Dance-Furies-Europe-Outbreak-World/dp/0674049543/ref=pd_sim_b_13


snips from ultimatium:

Austrians:

(5) To accept the collaboration in Serbia of representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government for the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the territorial integrity of the Monarchy;
(6) To take judicial proceedings against accessories to the plot of the 28th of June who are on Serbian territory; delegates of the Austro-Hungarian Government will take part in the investigation relating thereto;

Serbians:
(5)[The Serbian govt. does] not clearly grasp the meaning or the scope of the demand ... that Serbia shall undertake to accept the collaboration of the representatives of [A-H], but they declare that they will admit such collaboration as agrees with the principle of international law, with criminal procedure, and with good neighbourly relations.

(6)...As regards the participation in this inquiry [which Serbia intends to hold] of Austro-Hungarian agents... [Serbia] cannot accept such an arrangement, as it would be a violation of the Constitution...

 

[Snake Featherston]

WWI is averted as Austria-Hungary will not move without a German assurance of total aid including a general European war.

 

[BlondieBC]

No Blank Cheque means that Germany will still support A-H, but will be involved, so this means Germany will help A-H with the demands. There still will be demands to Serbia, it is just how it is handled. We could still easily see a war in this situation too, but it might take longer to unfold. Or we could see peace.

Russia will still support Serbia, so Serbia will still not be cooperative. France will likely stand by Russia still in this matter. The UK will be the wildcard, if the UK has a plan for "reasonable" punishment, there will be peace. If not, we still get war, it will just unfold a lot differently for these reasons.

1) Starts months later, an international summit will take time.

2) Since Germany will be working or months with A-H diplomatically, they will likely have some high level military cooperation so we have a more unified war plan. A couple decades back, the German civilian leaders had greatly limited direct military planning due to the not irrational fear that they joint military leadership might start a war.

3) A-H/Germany will not look so much like an aggressor.

The second Wildcard will be the Tsar. IOTL, he started mobilizing before the reply by Serbia was sent. So even in a best case scenario where the Germans have moderated the demands and the UK has some pre-knowledge of the demands, he still might begin mobilization and blow the situation up. One of the fundamental reasons the war started was both the Tsar and much of the German civilian leadership did not understand their own war plan. If the Tsar had simply understood that mobilization was the same as delivering a declaration of war to the German embassy, the war might have been avoided. The same for France understanding that by the way the German and Russian mobilization plans worked, Russia effective had a signed but undated DoW from France to Germany sitting on its desk.

 

[DerGreif]

A quite recent academic publication I have read seems to indicate that A-H would have gone to war even without the blank cheque, gambling on the assumption that Russia would not risk a war with Germany, which was still considered to support A-H, because they would have no other choice as to do that.

I have to dig that one up again.

@BlondiBC: Re: Russian mobilisation. More time would mean that the British diplomats could do more to prohibit this development. In OTL Germany had urged them to assert their influence to stop the Russian mobilisation, which they tried to do, but IIRC it was already too late. Otherwise there was a good chance for them succeeding.

Kind regards,
G.

 

[Catspoke]

1) Starts months later, an international summit will take time.

That would be an interesting ATL. Germany would have time to load up on strategic supplies, dump supplies and cadres of officers in the colonies, prepare commerce raiders, keep valuable merchants close to Germany, ready close to completion warships, etc... without having to mobilize or do overt war preparations.

Britain could give the Turks her new warships or just keep them until the crisis is over, each with diplomatic/military repercussions.

 

[Snake Featherston]

That would be an interesting ATL. Germany would have time to load up on strategic supplies, dump supplies and cadres of officers in the colonies, prepare commerce raiders, keep valuable merchants close to Germany, ready close to completion warships, etc... without having to mobilize or do overt war preparations.

Britain could give the Turks her new warships or just keep them until the crisis is over, each with diplomatic/military repercussions.

And Russia would also be able to actually give its offensives something approximating the vague form of a plan, which by itself is unlikely to end well for the Germans. Especially when they realize that Schlieffen's notes aren't going to work after two massive Russian armies in East Prussia right out of the starting gate.......

 

[BlondieBC]

@BlondiBC: Re: Russian mobilisation. More time would mean that the British diplomats could do more to prohibit this development. In OTL Germany had urged them to assert their influence to stop the Russian mobilisation, which they tried to do, but IIRC it was already too late. Otherwise there was a good chance for them succeeding.

Kind regards,
G.

yes, peace becomes likely, and there are many ways to make the deal. And with brinksmanship, there is a lot of ways for it to blow up anyway. A peace conference does not mean the leaders have a desire for peace in their hearts.

That would be an interesting ATL. Germany would have time to load up on strategic supplies, dump supplies and cadres of officers in the colonies, prepare commerce raiders, keep valuable merchants close to Germany, ready close to completion warships, etc... without having to mobilize or do overt war preparations.

Britain could give the Turks her new warships or just keep them until the crisis is over, each with diplomatic/military repercussions.

Yes, it would be.

Turkey gets its ships at least in 95% of ATL.

The problem with war anyway is the things you list. For example, Germany or Russia might be tempted to bring up the next class of recruits early for training, and the other side might interpret as mobilization. Or A-H might be doing extensive drills, and it might trigger Russia. I am sure each side will be looking for ways to get as many units active as possible and not trigger the other side reaction. The problem becomes when Russia mobilizing 3 corp is misinterpreted as a full mobilization or simply an series of escalations.

Russia activates 3 corp. Germany response by bringing up 6 corps. France then responds by matching the 6, the next day Germany goes full.

 

[BlondieBC]

And Russia would also be able to actually give its offensives something approximating the vague form of a plan, which by itself is unlikely to end well for the Germans. Especially when they realize that Schlieffen's notes aren't going to work after two massive Russian armies in East Prussia right out of the starting gate.......

Yes, Russia will get better organized as will all sides. France gets to think about does it really want to attack into A-L fortresses.

And the most likely counter response is a coordinated AH/Germany response where Germany dust off the fairly recent War Plan East. Assuming the UK is applying pressure to both sides to de-escalate, the Germans probably avoid Belgium. There is also more time for all sides to make pitches to Romania, Bulgaria, Ottomans, Sweden, Norway, and Italy. And Wilson likely tries to get glory for making a peace deal, so he will try to attend. With all the combinations, the TL could be written a hundred different ways.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Yes, Russia will get better organized as will all sides. France gets to think about does it really want to attack into A-L fortresses.

And the most likely counter response is a coordinated AH/Germany response where Germany dust off the fairly recent War Plan East. Assuming the UK is applying pressure to both sides to de-escalate, the Germans probably avoid Belgium. There is also more time for all sides to make pitches to Romania, Bulgaria, Ottomans, Sweden, Norway, and Italy. And Wilson likely tries to get glory for making a peace deal, so he will try to attend. With all the combinations, the TL could be written a hundred different ways.

Is that the most likely response? IIRC the Germans still in 1914 didn't comprehend quite how much Russian mobilization had improved. Give Russia time to actually set up some kind of real-for-true co-ordination system and a lot of the circumstances behind OTL Tannenberg are DOA. Germany will in all probability still defeat both armies, don't get me wrong, but defeat will not mean Cannae in OstPreussen.

 

[BlondieBC]

Is that the most likely response? IIRC the Germans still in 1914 didn't comprehend quite how much Russian mobilization had improved. Give Russia time to actually set up some kind of real-for-true co-ordination system and a lot of the circumstances behind OTL Tannenberg are DOA. Germany will in all probability still defeat both armies, don't get me wrong, but defeat will not mean Cannae in OstPreussen.

Yes,

It was too late to change the mobilization plans in the 48 hour window, but with Germany helping A-H write the demands, it gives almost 60 days for the Kaiser and civilian leadership to find the flaws in the plan and adjust the plans. And with a peace conference, it is probably in the 120-180 day range. It is also likely the each side will do partial mobilizations through actions such as not letting class go back to civilian life or calling up classes early.

And with the diplomatic circles cooperation, it is likely the ban on senior military cooperation is reversed. When Conrad and Moltke sit down and review the war plans, they likely spot the problems with differing assumptions, and likely make adjustments.

And it is not even a new plan for Germany, it is merely updating what is a two year old plan for any changes.

As to lining up allies, this is a given. Italy will want to be involved. The Ottomans will too. So will Bulgaria and Greece. And with these parties in or around the talks, both sides will be promising gains to countries that support them. Italy certainly will make a push for more land. Bulgaria can claim giving Macedonia back would be a great compromise way to punish Serbia. Russia probably finds a way to bring the straights into the discussion. Wilson wants a Nobel prize to match TR.

Now to be fair to all sides, France and Russia probably have better war plans. Russia could easily make improvements to their coding systems with French help. Russia will be importing supplies at a feverish pace.

Now a lot of this assumes Germany is courting the UK to stay neutral or help with the crisis. If Germany believes the UK is not "honest enough" broker, it might do the same things as OTL.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Russia will also have the leisure to actually start building a real system of co-ordination. It was the absence of such a system that made the OTL Tannenberg battle possible, as it meant that even if Rennenkampf and Samsonov weren't out to get each other they had no idea who was doing what to whom when. Their issues of terrain and the enemy having interior lines will still exist, but in this case the German tactical results will be IMHO rather far short of the OTL ones.

 

[Catspoke]

If Germany can convince herself that war plan east can work then she can be a lot more patient about Russian mobilization, which might keep the peace (easier to beat the mobilized Russian armies close to the frontier instead of marching in and trying to beat them as they mobilize in the interior vs, OTL: we have to DOW everybody now so we can beat France before the Russians mobilize).

If Germany/Austria wins a diplomatic victory I can see Tirpitz crowing about how his risk fleet kept the British neutral and "broke the encirclement" etc... Pushing the Reichstag to spend more money on ships.

If Germany/Austria is seen to have "lost" diplomatically this crisis. I can see Tirpitz crowing that the English has held us back again, pushing the Reichstag to build more ships to break the encirclement.

Tirpitz was a politician before his time, nothing like a crisis, any crisis to advance a political agenda.

 

[ivanotter]

It could have ended up as just another "incident" in this volatile world.

We have to have a more global outlook, I think. AH and to some extent Germany were convinced that a war with Russia had to come before Russia would become too strong. 1917 was like last call.

Would AH have attacked Russia alone? maybe. So with no blank cheque, they would have had to find another way of getting Germany into it. Conrad would have managed to cook something up.

The thing is AH was in no position to act fast. half the army was on harvest leave!

If anything, AH as also Grmany told them, should have invaded and occupied Belgrade (only) as a hostage. No further. If it had been done within hours, Russia could hardly have done anything.

Ivan

 

[Snake Featherston]

If Germany can convince herself that war plan east can work then she can be a lot more patient about Russian mobilization, which might keep the peace (easier to beat the mobilized Russian armies close to the frontier instead of marching in and trying to beat them as they mobilize in the interior vs, OTL: we have to DOW everybody now so we can beat France before the Russians mobilize).

If Germany/Austria wins a diplomatic victory I can see Tirpitz crowing about how his risk fleet kept the British neutral and "broke the encirclement" etc... Pushing the Reichstag to spend more money on ships.

If Germany/Austria is seen to have "lost" diplomatically this crisis. I can see Tirpitz crowing that the English has held us back again, pushing the Reichstag to build more ships to break the encirclement.

Tirpitz was a politician before his time, nothing like a crisis, any crisis to advance a political agenda.

Why would Germany do that in a 1914 context without our advantage of hindsight and realizing how fragile 1914 Russia actually was?

 

[Catspoke]

Why would Germany do that in a 1914 context without our advantage of hindsight and realizing how fragile 1914 Russia actually was?

If OTL the Kaiser at least wavered with the thought of war with Britain, asking Moltke about the possibility of going east. Then if during the slower build up to this crisis it become obvious that Britain doesn't consider Serbia as a critical interest to her, then the Germans with time to think about all this might take a look at a situation where they could fight France and Russia alone and win a limited victory (perhaps no fighting at all is required then for a diplomatic victory).

Now if Germany is convinced that Russia is becoming a increasingly powerful steamroller that will undoubtably roll over her at some future date then the OTL west first, do it now plan sort of makes some sense. I can see career military insiders obsessing about Russia, but reasonable people with a month to think about will realize that Germany is an country with an ever more prosperous future and that even a strong Russia wouldn't attack a war like country like Germany unprovoked without a great deal of risk (sort of like Tirpitz risk theory but with land forces). And really Russia and Germany have no direct quarrels (no Alscase-Lorraine like territorial disputes, both reactionary monarchys and such)

People like Tirpitz and Ballin had the Kaisers ear and could convice him with enough time that a real shooting war with Britain, France, Russia, Belgium and Serbia with only Austria as an ally was a bad idea (Tirpitz if only for his fleet interests, Ballin for his merchant interests)