WI. Japan conquers Hawaii in the 30s

[Alexniko]

Let's say a revolution (and possibly a civil war) breaks out in the US in the 1930s. I don't want to go into the details of this, lets just say there's a workers revolution or parts of the ruling class are openly fighting against each other, or something like that.

Anyway, let's say the Japanese Empire takes advantage of this, and occupies Guam, Wake, Midway and Hawaii (in this situation, thats not only possible but quite likely in my opinion).

Guam, Wake and Midway would be taken easily, Hawaii on the other hand might be a bit more difficult. The United States had a pretty powerfull garrison on O'ahu in the 30s and, regardless of which side the garrison supports in the revolution, it would likely pose stiff resistance to a japanese invasion. However, facing the combined might of the IJA and IJN, and without re-inforcement from the mainland, american forces would be forced to surrender earlier or later. The whole Hawaiian island chain falls into the hands of the Japanese Empire.

Ok, Japan controls the islands ... now what? Would Hawaii be directly annexed into the Empire as a prefecture, or would Tokio install a pupet kingdom in the island chain? What would the cultural and economic consequences be, and how would Hawaii look in the 40s, 50s and 60s?

I actually got the idea for this thread from the Kaiserreich mod, which gives you, as Japan, the possibility to occupy America's Pacific holdings during the second american civil war.

 

[CV(N)-6]

An ACW in the 30's is very difficult to have, and whatever is in the Hawaiian Island's, no matter the faction, will fight the Japanese force at the end of a very long supply chain

 

[Nivek]

An ACW in the 30's is very difficult to have, and whatever is in the Hawaiian Island's, no matter the faction, will fight the Japanese force at the end of a very long supply chain

Yes seems a strech, better would be japan going yolo and loss early

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Fighting in Hawaii would be brutal. The Japanese would have to fight through a large portion of the Pacific Fleet and the Army units stationed there. It's likely that these are all still available since fighting in a SACW wouldn't reach the islands. With the naval resources Japan has in the 1930s, I can't see an invasion being successful. A battle in Hawaii would do unsustainable damage to the IJN.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

Ever read The Falcon Cannot Hear?

 

[CV12Hornet]

An ACW in the 30's is very difficult to have, and whatever is in the Hawaiian Island's, no matter the faction, will fight the Japanese force at the end of a very long supply chain

Fighting in Hawaii would be brutal. The Japanese would have to fight through a large portion of the Pacific Fleet and the Army units stationed there. It's likely that these are all still available since fighting in a SACW wouldn't reach the islands. With the naval resources Japan has in the 1930s, I can't see an invasion being successful. A battle in Hawaii would do unsustainable damage to the IJN.

I'm not so sure about that.

A revolution would be exactly the sort of thing to cut the supply lines between Hawaii and the West Coast, and most of the Pacific Fleet was based out of San Diego rather than Hawaii during this decade anyway. There is a plausible scenario to be constructed where the Japanese fight only the Army garrison there with minimal fleet units and little chance of resupply.

Not that that makes the situation a cakewalk, but it is a potentially winnable scenario for Japan, at least.

 

[Alexniko]

An ACW in the 30's is very difficult to have, and whatever is in the Hawaiian Island's, no matter the faction, will fight the Japanese force at the end of a very long supply chain

Fighting in Hawaii would be brutal. The Japanese would have to fight through a large portion of the Pacific Fleet and the Army units stationed there. It's likely that these are all still available since fighting in a SACW wouldn't reach the islands. With the naval resources Japan has in the 1930s, I can't see an invasion being successful. A battle in Hawaii would do unsustainable damage to the IJN.

I don't know, the 30s were very turbulent times. The US, like the rest of the capitalist world, was in the mids of the great depression. The USSR on the other hand was the only great power seemingly not affected by the crisis, and while the world economy collapsed the first and second five-year plans archieved massive growth rates. The USSR had basically eliminated unemployment, while the same issue was epidemic in the US. If a few things get out of hand and the government commits a series of drastic mistakes, a situation in which a workers uprising could happen doesn't seem all that far fetched to me.

On the US navy, before the "Naval Expanison Act" of 1938 and the "Two Ocean Navy Act" of 1940 it was a very different force from the one that fought in WW2. Also, keep in mind that the IJN had naval supremacy in the pacific in 1941/42, before the USA's massive industrial might began to outproduce them. In this scenario the US navy in the Pacific, just as the O'ahu garrison, will only get very few (if any) material and personal re-inforcements. Last but not least, if a second ACW broke out, most of the American Pacific Fleet would likely be needed in their home waters along the west coast.

 

[Alexniko]

Ever read The Falcon Cannot Hear?

No, thanks for telling me. I'll check it out.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Also, keep in mind that the IJN had naval supremacy in the pacific in 1941/42, before the USA's massive industrial might began to outproduce them. In this scenario the US navy in the Pacific, just as the O'ahu garrison, will only get very few (if any) material and personal re-inforcements. Last but not least, if a second ACW broke out, most of the american pacific fleet would be needed in their home waters along the west coast.

The Japanese navy of 1935 didn't have the same capacity as the navy of 1942. Despite the American forces being limited to their pre 1941 size, those would be enough to cause serious damage to a 1930s Japanese invasion force. Furthermore the Japanese wouldn't have the ability to adequately transport large enough numbers of troops to Hawaii in the first place. When they tried to take Midway IOTL 1942 they could only transport 5000 troops.

 

[GDIS Pathe]

I don't know, the 30s were very turbulent times. The US, like the rest of the capitalist world, was in the mids of the great depression. The USSR on the other hand was the only great power seemingly not affected by the crisis, and while the world economy collapsed the first and second five-year plans archieved massive growth rates. The USSR had basically eliminated unemployment, while the same issue was epidemic in the US. If a few things get out of hand and the government commits a series of drastic mistakes, a situation in which a workers uprising could happen doesn't seem all that far fetched to me.

I'm just going quote David T whose post basically summs up the issues with this

The Great Depression may have indirectly caused the second world war, but it certainly didn't cause many civil ones. Except for Spain and China, hardly any nation had a civil war during the 1930's, and those were special circumstances. (China had just barely been unified and that partly on paper, Spain's extreme left-right polarization had historical roots totally absent in the US or the UK and the Commonwealth or northern Europe in general, etc.).

To quote an old post of mine at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...hat-would-it-take.425299/page-2#post-15569269:

***

I once wrote that if the New Deal had failed politically, the most likely alternative for America would not be revolution or civil war, fascism or communism, or even Huey Long or Upton Sinclair. It would probably be Arthur Vandenberg or Alf Landon. I joked that this was the most boring fact in alternate history...

(The point is not that America is unique, and that therefore it "can't happen here." Rather, the point is that *most* well-established democracies--democracy in Germany and Italy and Spain was hardly "well-established"--did in fact muddle through in the 1930's, often under center-right governments like the UK under the National Government, Australia under Lyons, etc. Even France was governed by centrist or conservative governments for most of the 1930's, the Popular Front being a relatively brief interlude.)

On the US navy, before the "Naval Expanison Act" of 1938 and the "Two Ocean Navy Act" of 1940 it was a very different force from the one that fought in WW2. Also, keep in mind that the IJN had naval supremacy in the pacific in 1941/42, before the USA's massive industrial might began to outproduce them. In this scenario the US navy in the Pacific, just as the O'ahu garrison, will only get very few (if any) material and personal re-inforcements. Last but not least, if a second ACW broke out, most of the American Pacific Fleet would likely be needed in their home waters along the west coast.

Also as it happens so is the Japanese Navy which like most of the world's major navies is still experimenting with carrier aviation, has no capability to support prolonged operations in and around the Hawaiian islands, and would likely by the time this hypothetical and supremely unlikely 2nd ACW breaks out is busy supporting Japan's war in China, as a matter of fact, why is Japan even bothering with Hawaii? They're currently fighting a massive war in China soaking up men and material like no tomorrow and an invasion of Hawaii not only requires a massive expansion of the Japanese Fleet Train, but it would also *gasp * require the army to acquiesce the necessary troops for a Navy operation which would serve to distract from the IJA's main focus.

 

[Workable Goblin]

I'm not so sure about that.

A revolution would be exactly the sort of thing to cut the supply lines between Hawaii and the West Coast, and most of the Pacific Fleet was based out of San Diego rather than Hawaii during this decade anyway. There is a plausible scenario to be constructed where the Japanese fight only the Army garrison there with minimal fleet units and little chance of resupply.

Not that that makes the situation a cakewalk, but it is a potentially winnable scenario for Japan, at least.

For that matter, the Army garrison itself could plausibly have been reduced in the lead-up to the 2nd ACW. Plus, depending on the situation there may be some ability by the Japanese to marshal support in the islands--not through any paranoid fifth column thinking, of course, but from the actual fact that the islands were at that time basically a colonial regime, with rich white planters dominating the economy and politics while poor Asian workers did most of the, well, work. Tensions mostly simmered instead of boiling over, but in a scenario leading up to a 2nd ACW they're likely to be higher, and Japan might be able to take advantage of that if it approached things properly.

 

[Johnrankins]

I think that a Second American Civil War makes it less, not more, likely for Japan to attack Hawaii. Japan didn't attack Hawaii because of Hawaii but China. The didn't want the Pac Fleet interfering with their plans in SEA and it was in Hawaii. If there is a Second American Civil War I doubt the US will be paying too much attention to China, certainly not enough to interfere in Japan's plans. It is too concerned with say the Battle of Baltimore to be concerned about the Battle of Nanking and it needs cash. I doubt the US would try to cut off trade with Japan under the circumstances and so Japan just ignores the US and concentrates on China. All attacking Hawaii would do is divert effort away from China and put Japan on America's list of "People to settle with after the war."

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I think that a Second American Civil War makes it less, not more, likely for Japan to attack Hawaii. Japan didn't attack Hawaii because of Hawaii but China. The didn't want the Pac Fleet interfering with their plans in SEA and it was in Hawaii. If there is a Second American Civil War I doubt the US will be paying too much attention to China, certainly not enough to interfere in Japan's plans. It is too concerned with say the Battle of Baltimore to be concerned about the Battle of Nanking and it needs cash. I doubt the US would try to cut off trade with Japan under the circumstances and so Japan just ignores the US and concentrates on China. All attacking Hawaii would do is divert effort away from China and put Japan on America's list of "People to settle with after the war."

And had their been a Civil war in the USA can you think of anything better to immediately stop it than a foreign power attacking a US possession?

 

[Garrison]

Let's say a revolution (and possibly a civil war) breaks out in the US in the 1930s. I don't want to go into the details of this, lets just say there's a workers revolution or parts of the ruling class are openly fighting against each other, or something like that.

Sorry but you need to go into the details. You have just utterly changed the political landscape of the 1930's and yet you want people to somehow guess what's going to happen when you haven't offered any sort of framework to work with, especially since as GDS Pathe has pointed out such a civil war is wildly implausible as is the Japanese mounting some sort of transpacific invasion of Hawaii with its 1930's capabilities.

 

[NHBL]

Unless the USA is effectively done as a country by internal troubles, I would say that Japan is DEAD, DEAD, DEAD. That's the sort of thing that unites a country. The depression will be essentially over, as idle production facilities and workers stop being idle. American troops and ships aren't going to Germany, either--the entire industrial might of the United States is pointed at Japan.

Japan may not get invaded, but if Japan doesn't seek terms that include returning everything they took, the United States will just keep coming.

(Oh--S-boat torpedoes tend to work a lot better than later ones.)

Britain gets formal notification that the United States is withdrawing from the various naval limitation treaties.

This will have major effects on any possible European war in the late 30's...the United States has shown what it can do when you wake it up. And in '39, the United States might be demobilizing, but the ships and planes will still be there, the veteran troops will be available for call up, and the usual results of wartime research probably mean that the USA has early 1940's technology in '39. European nations won't want to be the target of millions of men singing "Over There."