WI: A longer-lived Emperor Kōmei and potential effects on the "Meiji" Restoration?

[Emperor Constantine]

I've recently became interested in the Meiji restoration and the events leading up to it, and in doing so learned more about Meiji's father, Emperor Kōmei. Komei was the first politically active Emperor in centuries, mainly thanks to the total political chaos within the Tokugawa Bakufu thanks to the arrival of Commodore Perry and his black ships. During his reign the Japanese political system had started to transition into a duumvirate, with power held by both the Shogunate and the Imperial Court. Yet the Emperor's alliance with the Shogunate may have caused his death, as it was in opposition tot he Satsuma-Choshu alliance that wanted to use Komei as a figurehead to dissolve the Shogunate. In early 1867 the Emperor fell ill with "smallpox" and died soon after. Its quite debatable on whether or not Komei died of illness or was poisoned, as his death was very convenient. Afterward, his 14-year-old son ascended the throne as Emperor Meiji, the relationship between Court and Bakufu deteriorated and the Meiji restoration soon began.

I can't help but wonder how things would have developed if Komei had survived his smallpox/poisoning episode and continued to reign. Would Tokugawa Yoshinobu be able to maintain the Shogunate or was its collapse inevitable by 1867? If the later, would an adult Emperor, whose been politically active for the past decade, be able to rain the Satsuma and Chōshū samurai and take absolute power for himself, rather than being a figurehead of an oligarchy like his son? Would the "Komei" Restoration retain elements of old Japan, rather than copying nearly everything from the west (Komei was quite anti-western)? Or would the oligarchs simply have a different figurehead at the beginning?

 

[Henderson]

Would Tokugawa Yoshinobu be able to maintain the Shogunate or was its collapse inevitable by 1867?

If I am remembering correctly, Komei firmly believed in the Shogunate and disavowed any attempts to over throw it. While he may have disagreed with Yoshinobu's policies on Westerners, he wouldn't support any attempt to remove the Shogunate. He might support the replacement of Yoshinobu with another member of the Tokugawa family more conductive to his anti-Western ideology though. Perhaps Tokugawa Yoshiyori would be a candidate?

If the later, would an adult Emperor, whose been politically active for the past decade, be able to rain the Satsuma and Chōshū samurai and take absolute power for himself, rather than being a figurehead of an oligarchy like his son?

IF the Satsuma and Choshu samurai don't declare for "Western Technology, Japanese Spirit", and instead stick to the more basic Sonno Joi principles that defined their rise in popularity, then I could see Komei siding with them and actively participating in their Government. The whole heart of the movement was to restore power to the Emperor, and now with an adult Emperor the transfer of power will be much more direct. Although with that I assume that Komei will also become much more grating on Japanese politicians than Meiji was OTL, for reasons I'll get into.

Would the "Komei" Restoration retain elements of old Japan, rather than copying nearly everything from the west (Komei was quite anti-western)? Or would the oligarchs simply have a different figurehead at the beginning?

Any "Komei Restoration" would have him fighting tooth and nail to keep Japan closed. There would be no trading with outside nations, no foreign diplomacy, just a simple return to Sakoku, as if Perry's threatening and all the treaties with the West never happened. Now this would clash, both with the reality of the situation and with the views of his ministers. Shogunate or not, pretty much everyone had acknowledged that Westernization was necessary and the period of Sakoku had to end if Japan was to survive the century.

If Komei lived, and ended up at the head of a new Imperial government, I don't see him lasting more than a year or two. He's simply too in the way. His policies and ideas would come into direct conflict with his ministers, and I doubt he could be dissuaded from his warpath. In the end it would be easier for them to either kill/depose Komei rather than have to deal with him as a permanent spanner in their attempts to reform Japan.

 

[kasumigenx]

If I am remembering correctly, Komei firmly believed in the Shogunate and disavowed any attempts to over throw it. While he may have disagreed with Yoshinobu's policies on Westerners, he wouldn't support any attempt to remove the Shogunate. He might support the replacement of Yoshinobu with another member of the Tokugawa family more conductive to his anti-Western ideology though. Perhaps Tokugawa Yoshiyori would be a candidate?


IF the Satsuma and Choshu samurai don't declare for "Western Technology, Japanese Spirit", and instead stick to the more basic Sonno Joi principles that defined their rise in popularity, then I could see Komei siding with them and actively participating in their Government. The whole heart of the movement was to restore power to the Emperor, and now with an adult Emperor the transfer of power will be much more direct. Although with that I assume that Komei will also become much more grating on Japanese politicians than Meiji was OTL, for reasons I'll get into.


Any "Komei Restoration" would have him fighting tooth and nail to keep Japan closed. There would be no trading with outside nations, no foreign diplomacy, just a simple return to Sakoku, as if Perry's threatening and all the treaties with the West never happened. Now this would clash, both with the reality of the situation and with the views of his ministers. Shogunate or not, pretty much everyone had acknowledged that Westernization was necessary and the period of Sakoku had to end if Japan was to survive the century.

If Komei lived, and ended up at the head of a new Imperial government, I don't see him lasting more than a year or two. He's simply too in the way. His policies and ideas would come into direct conflict with his ministers, and I doubt he could be dissuaded from his warpath. In the end it would be easier for them to either kill/depose Komei rather than have to deal with him as a permanent spanner in their attempts to reform Japan.

I think Japan could end up like OTL China under him.

 

[Henderson]

I think Japan could end up like OTL China under him.

If Komei succeeds in repealing the treaties Japan made with the Westerners under the Bakufu, then Japan would totally end up on the wrong end of a Western invasion, and suffer its own century of humiliation.

 

[MageOhki]

What everyone's said is accurate. If the Emperor got his way on the Sakoku even for a year, Japan would be screwed. Can you say, Boxer rebellion, but Japan?

What's more interesting, is the *butterflies it'd have*. No Japanese-Russian war, no Sino-Japanese... wow.

Just... wow.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

If I am remembering correctly, Komei firmly believed in the Shogunate and disavowed any attempts to over throw it. While he may have disagreed with Yoshinobu's policies on Westerners, he wouldn't support any attempt to remove the Shogunate. He might support the replacement of Yoshinobu with another member of the Tokugawa family more conductive to his anti-Western ideology though. Perhaps Tokugawa Yoshiyori would be a candidate?

Did he? I can't seem to find a true source on his opinion of the Shogunate. At the least, it seemed to me that he was angling to gain more power vis a vie the Shogun, either as a duumvirate or by subordinating the Bakufu to the Court. Like the Bakufu acts as the Emperor's ministers and do the governing, but still answer to the Court.

IF the Satsuma and Choshu samurai don't declare for "Western Technology, Japanese Spirit", and instead stick to the more basic Sonno Joi principles that defined their rise in popularity, then I could see Komei siding with them and actively participating in their Government. The whole heart of the movement was to restore power to the Emperor, and now with an adult Emperor the transfer of power will be much more direct. Although with that I assume that Komei will also become much more grating on Japanese politicians than Meiji was OTL, for reasons I'll get into.

That's kinda what I was thinking/aiming for. Make the Meiji restoration into something akin to a successful Kenmu restoration

Any "Komei Restoration" would have him fighting tooth and nail to keep Japan closed. There would be no trading with outside nations, no foreign diplomacy, just a simple return to Sakoku, as if Perry's threatening and all the treaties with the West never happened. Now this would clash, both with the reality of the situation and with the views of his ministers. Shogunate or not, pretty much everyone had acknowledged that Westernization was necessary and the period of Sakoku had to end if Japan was to survive the century.

So you don't think Komei would moderate his opinion if Japan gets a swift kick to the teeth? Or takes a hard look at what happened to China when they insisted on challenging the west? I ask because it seemed to me that Komei was either getting very bad advice or was keep purposefully ignorant of the full situation by courtiers who who favored the Sonnō jōi movement. I mean, do we have any sources to the Emperor's thoughts or opinions after his "Expell the Barbarians" order resulted in the Shimonoseki campaign and the Japanese defeat there? Did he have any kind of second thoughts or did he double down? Or is that what led to his renewed support of the Shogunate?

If Komei lived, and ended up at the head of a new Imperial government, I don't see him lasting more than a year or two. He's simply too in the way. His policies and ideas would come into direct conflict with his ministers, and I doubt he could be dissuaded from his warpath. In the end it would be easier for them to either kill/depose Komei rather than have to deal with him as a permanent spanner in their attempts to reform Japan.

Again, I think this depends on how the Emperor acted post 1864. If he did indeed double down on his anti-western sentiments, then 100% agree. But if he started to moderate his views, or at least acknowledge that Japan needed to modernize first before standing up to the west, then he might not be a disaster.

I think Japan could end up like OTL China under him.

So Komei would be the Japanese equivalent of the Xianfeng Emperor, triggering the equivalent of the second Opium war?

If Komei succeeds in repealing the treaties Japan made with the Westerners under the Bakufu, then Japan would totally end up on the wrong end of a Western invasion, and suffer its own century of humiliation.

IDK if it would be that bad or if it would be a more limited situation. Think China after the first opium war, rather than China under Cixi.

What everyone's said is accurate. If the Emperor got his way on the Sakoku even for a year, Japan would be screwed. Can you say, Boxer rebellion, but Japan?

What's more interesting, is the *butterflies it'd have*. No Japanese-Russian war, no Sino-Japanese... wow.

Just... wow.

If he did end up that bad, it would indeed be interesting to see. I mean the Qing might be able to survive and China retain its de-jure hegemony over east Asia.

 

[Henderson]

Did he? I can't seem to find a true source on his opinion of the Shogunate. At the least, it seemed to me that he was angling to gain more power vis a vie the Shogun, either as a duumvirate or by subordinating the Bakufu to the Court. Like the Bakufu acts as the Emperor's ministers and do the governing, but still answer to the Court.

I went off of Emperor of Japan: Meiji and His World by Donald Keene, and IIRC the book states that Komei supported the Shogunate and its continued existence (albeit not the Shogun himself). It's great book, and has a pretty good analysis of the Bakumatsu period leading up to the Boshin War. It was very clear that he wanted the Emperor and Bakufu to work in tandem though, and some sort of duumvirate or other power-sharing agreement was likely what he sought.

So you don't think Komei would moderate his opinion if Japan gets a swift kick to the teeth? Or takes a hard look at what happened to China when they insisted on challenging the west? I ask because it seemed to me that Komei was either getting very bad advice or was keep purposefully ignorant of the full situation by courtiers who who favored the Sonnō jōi movement. I mean, do we have any sources to the Emperor's thoughts or opinions after his "Expell the Barbarians" order resulted in the Shimonoseki campaign and the Japanese defeat there? Did he have any kind of second thoughts or did he double down? Or is that what led to his renewed support of the Shogunate?

I mean maybe? Komei was a pretty headstrong character and seemed dead set on the expulsion of foreigners. The idea that Komei was kept in the dark is honestly an interesting theory that I haven't heard of, and could entirely be possible. However I feel like by the point Komei would see the truth of the matter, the damage would already be done and Japan would be embroiled in some conflict with Western Powers. As for his opinion on the Shimonoseki Campaign, I entirely forgot. I think it might be in Keene's book, but I'll need to find wherever I squirreled it away check it for any reference.

IDK if it would be that bad or if it would be a more limited situation. Think China after the first opium war, rather than China under Cixi.

Honestly it's more whatever happens to Japan after the whole Komei Restoration. It could bounce back (Japan OTL had a raw deal under the Ansei treaties and still managed to make it as far as it did), but it just as easily could follow China into a backslide of consistent humiliation & political failures. Depends on how the die land.