Of the countries who remained Capitalist during the 20th Century, which ones would be the most likely to have a Communist government installed and why?
Which countries would have been most likely to fall to Communism during the 20th Century?
- Thread starter CanveyFanNumberOne
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Depends on how early you want the Pod to be. A more successful Red Army, or a less successful American one could mean that you have all of Germany, Greece, at least the top half of Italy and maybe even a bit of France behind the Iron Curtain. Turkey in this instance would almost certainly be finlandized, since they are surrounded by Soviet States
As mentioned above, France, Germany and Italy are fairly likely, if you allow a PoD from 1st January 1900 onwards.
When I said the 20th century I meant from 1st January 1900 to the 31st December 1999
As I understand it there was a very real chance Germany could have had its own Red Revolution after the First World War or even if the war had gone on just a few months longer. The chance for revolution OTL was pretty effectively quashed when the government made it clear they were willing to negotiate with hardline militarists on the Right, while negotiations with hardline militarists on the Left was done at range with bullets.
I think Italy was much in the same boat, to where I would make the argument that fears of communist revolt in both countries lead to the reactionary moves that paved the way for fascism/nazism to ultimately take over.
I know less about the French communist party, but I don't recall hearing much more than 'and some communists were also there to yell about unions', so I'm less sure of the chances for a Red France. I think people just like the name "French Commune" based on the very-short lived Paris Commune that popped up during the Franco-Prussian War and just run with it.
Concerning South America: it's my understanding the 'Communist' movements in South America that the CIA so ruthlessly put down were more soft Socialist in outlook (certainly not puppets of Moscow), not that the Americans made much of a distinction. I'll leave it to the thread to decide where socialism ends and communism begins.
Well for Chile you could have Allende not be couped.
But speaking for Argentina (where I'm from) I can tell you that from 1945 on, there's absolutely no chance in hell that the country could have become neither socialist nor communist in any way short of a Soviet conquest or something as ASB. Peronism made it completely impossible as its electorate was composed of the workers that socialists need to have popular support.
Now, when Perón was exiled, the Peronist movement was fractured between a Revolutionary (socialist) wing and a "Base Peronism" (which basically was Peronism as it actually governed). This fracture didn't become evident until Peron came back from exile and crushed the socialist wing.
But back to the point, even 1945 it's almost impossible, as the Socialist Party was never really popular, and even if you got them to win an election, I think they would've been more social democrats than anything.
On another Note, Kaiserreich's Patagonian Workers Front is pretty much ASB.
For Uruguay, I'm not really knowledgeable on its history but I think it's more of the same, the socialists were only a guerrilla group and never had any real chance of taking power.
George Carty
Banned
Are you arguing that Allende (if not couped by Pinochet) would have turned Chile into a communist dictatorship, or are you arguing that he was a Chilean Kerensky who would have been overthrown by the actual communists if Pinochet hadn't got there first?
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Well then,
Indonesia is probably the biggest one, if the mass killings of Communists in 1965 aren't given the tacit go-ahead by DC. Italy of course is where a Communist party could have been elected into office most readily in W.Europe although that would have triggered an instant coup or at least armed insurrection by the whole constellation of Operation Gladio-aligned political forces. If electoral politics go very differently in India there could be Communists in a ruling coalition or even as head of govt. (or establishing poltical hegemony in states beyond West Bengal and Kerala) although I don't think that really qualifies as "going communist." The same goes for the "Chilean path to Socialism" under Allende, had it not been cut short.
I mean, the question is "who is most likely to have a Communist government installed" which sounds like what the OP is saying is "who has a Marxist-Leninist party installed via outside military force, coup, or intervention" - in that case, it's a bit of a different question. Finland? Austria? Maybe Soviet attempts to create a puppet state in northern Iran? If the Sandinistas invade Costa Rica or Honduras they might be able to overrun them and install socialist governments although that would have entailed, as the kids say, fucking around and finding out once XVIII Airborne Corps arrives to backstop either of those countries.
The big split in this conversation is "who could have potentially had pro-Soviet troops occupy their territory" vs "who could have elected Communists into office if the CIA/MI6/local death squads didn't stop them" which is actually a very interesting conversation about the history of Communist politics in the 20th century.
(I'm also only talking about post-1945. If we're talking all of the 20th century then obviously Hungary and Germany could have easily had Communist governments if the chips fell even a little differently and that would mean Poland could have had them installed at the tip of RSFSR Soviet bayonets. 20th century history could have had Japan elect Communists into government although idk enough about there to know if that would mean "a left wing Japanese government during the Taisho democracy era" or "Soviet Japan")
Well, the OP never required the country to become a communist dictatorship, but no, I don't think Allende would've turned Chile into a dictatorship.
Not really, in the election of 1946 and 1948 the entire popular front with the addition of Unità Socialista (social-democratic that really don't get much along with the communist) received 38% of the votes, hardly that close result
Osman Aga
Banned
Greece (1945)
Iran (1979)
Turkey (1945-1980)
Netherlands (1918)
All of Germany (1918)
All of Korea (1950)
Indonesia (1945-1949)
Spain (1931-1939?
Also:
France
Italy
Portugal
Belgium (if Germany and/or France turns communist)
Iraq
Sudan
Syria
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