What would the impact be on Spain be if the new world was discovered much later?

[Wr1t3r]

I'm very interested in what Spain's economy would be like, especially during the 16th century, considering in 1500, Spain was above average in terms of economics, but by the time they lost most of their empire (due to napoleon) it was probably the poorest in Europe, due to all that gold & silver causing hyper-inflation and such. I am also curious, since the ottomans would obviously be weaker in TTL it would mean that the Reconquista likely continues past Melilla & Ceuta, where would it stop? How would the Spanish colonization of the new world be different in ttl?
Anyway, this obviously depends a lot on the PoD, so...

The 4th crusade sacks the capital of Egypt instead of Constantinople.

 

[MegaByyte]

How much later are we talking about?

 

[Wr1t3r]

How much later are we talking about?

How much later do you think it would be with my PoD?

 

[MegaByyte]

Not much. Maybe a few decades? Portugal was already doing exploration in early 1400s which was made possible by the new sailing technologies. Even if you remove the 4th Crusade, sailing around Africa would be preferable to paying Muslim middlemen for the Portuguese.
With Portugal sailing around Africa, its only a matter of time before they discover the Americas. One Portuguese ship discovered Brazil by accident in 1500. I don't see how something like it won't happen in this TL.

 

[DJ03]

I think a better pod would be all Columbus' ships being lost at sea and nobody making it back to Europe. The reason for this is that by the 1500s the portuguese and english seem just too likely to stumble into south and north america respectively to prevent the notion of lands beyond the Atlantic from spreading, but not the notion that said land is of any interest

w/o Columbus, we can remove the Caribbean (and by extension Mesoamerica) from the equation, which prevents the short to mid term discovery of large empires and/or gold and silver deposits

it's likely the portuguese still discover Brazil, but see little point in penetrating much further west, thus slowing down their exploration of south america sgnfcntly
if at some point someone other than fishermen were to stumble upon Newfoundland &co, they'd prbbly just report of a cold, lightly populated, forested backwater and not spark any interest in european courts

a funny butterfly of Columbus not making it across the Atlantic would be that, lacking the notion of a central America (even as a collection of islands), the northern and southern landmasses are likely to get two different names

 

[DJ03]

in Spain lack of overseas domains would start mattering around the time of the War of the League of Cognac, as Charles would have to find something other than Venezuela to pawn for loans

In general, lack of wealth from the american conquests would have to be compensated either by raising taxes of by cutting expenses, the latter of which remains hard to do w/ France remaining an active threat until the wars of religion, the dutch being even more likely to revolt due to higher taxes and the English still prbbly supporting the latter

taking a pessimistic approach, the Spanish system seems bound to break at some point, w/ the relationship between the king and Cortes progressively souring over fiscal policy issues

 

[Opunium]

I think the neccessity to split the empire (most importantly the Netherlands) becomes more prominent as without American money flowing in, any potential rebellion within a already hostile Europe (Schmalkaldic war, France) is almost impossible to surpress.

Thus I think Spain overstretches itself. However if the Habsburg branches simply manage to get along, or the Spanish Habsburgs to produce more healthy sons, it is very easy to bestow the wasp's nest called the Burgundian inheritance onto some second son (or as dowry for a Spanish Habsburg princess and Austrian Habsburg prince).

However the long run I think Spain is better off; A Spain merely confined to the Iberian peninsula and Napels (either ex or including Portugal) can solely focus on the Ottoman threat and expanding in Italy and reconquista-ing North Africa. 'Let the HRE and their Lutherans sort out themselves' will be the likely approach. Preventing several bankruptcies. And with American money bound to flow in some time after 1550 (as I cant see Spain not competing in America after its eventual discovery) I think they could be highly succesfull in countering the Ottomans (not losing Tunis, etc.).

 

[Wr1t3r]

in Spain lack of overseas domains would start mattering around the time of the War of the League of Cognac, as Charles would have to find something other than Venezuela to pawn for loans

In general, lack of wealth from the american conquests would have to be compensated either by raising taxes of by cutting expenses, the latter of which remains hard to do w/ France remaining an active threat until the wars of religion, the dutch being even more likely to revolt due to higher taxes and the English still prbbly supporting the latter

taking a pessimistic approach, the Spanish system seems bound to break at some point, w/ the relationship between the king and Cortes progressively souring over fiscal policy issues

So, would spain have something akin to the french revolution?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

What if they find the New World but decline to invest heavily in its colonization?

reconquista-ing North Africa

Would a re-Christianized North Africa crib its identity from the Vandals, Goths, etc.?

 

[jacob ningen]

I think a better pod would be all Columbus' ships being lost at sea and nobody making it back to Europe. The reason for this is that by the 1500s the portuguese and english seem just too likely to stumble into south and north america respectively to prevent the notion of lands beyond the Atlantic from spreading, but not the notion that said land is of any interest

w/o Columbus, we can remove the Caribbean (and by extension Mesoamerica) from the equation, which prevents the short to mid term discovery of large empires and/or gold and silver deposits

it's likely the portuguese still discover Brazil, but see little point in penetrating much further west, thus slowing down their exploration of south america sgnfcntly
if at some point someone other than fishermen were to stumble upon Newfoundland &co, they'd prbbly just report of a cold, lightly populated, forested backwater and not spark any interest in european courts

a funny butterfly of Columbus not making it across the Atlantic would be that, lacking the notion of a central America (even as a collection of islands), the northern and southern landmasses are likely to get two different na

another thing is that for both the Aztecs and Inca internecine conflict driven in part by smallpox had made the empires weak right when Cortez encountered them. Smallpox did two rounds of killing the actual disease and the second time by altering the balance of power according to Philbrick(how reliable is he?)

 

[Silver01]

I did talked to an actual aztec historian about this premise to quote him

they were trying to conquer the places surrounding the P'urepecha empire to try to encircle them like they were doing Tlaxcallan
And they were expanding southeast into Guatemala to get the cacao sources, they seemed prime to conquer K'umarkaj as the latter's empire was at the time very fragile from internal conflict

tlaxcala would likely get conquered they were cut off by the time cortez arrived and no, the aztecs did not keep them for sacrifices the whole flower war myth is that a myth they were cutting them off to make conquest easier, and K'umarkaj is conquered, they migth try something against the Purepecha

As for the Inca depending how much time they are given expansion could occur to Colombia there is a simply a lot to conquer that is worth it

 

[DJ03]

So, would spain have something akin to the french revolution?

i was thinking more an english civil war, but that's fair too

another thing is that for both the Aztecs and Inca internecine conflict driven in part by smallpox had made the empires weak right when Cortez encountered them. Smallpox did two rounds of killing the actual disease and the second time by altering the balance of power according to Philbrick(how reliable is he?)

idk when the first round of smallpox hit the Aztecs, but I'm not sure it predated Cortez's arrival. No idea about the Inca

 

[jacob ningen]

i was thinking more an english civil war, but that's fair too

idk when the first round of smallpox hit the Aztecs, but I'm not sure it predated Cortez's arrival. No idea about the Inca

I knew that Moctezuma and Atahualpa just came out of civil wars and that in the Inca case it was due to the Inca and his heir suddenly dying. I also know in Massachusetts according to Philbrick the Pilgrims were able to get as far as they did due to internecine conflict driven by a smallpox epidemic caused by Thomas Hunt. I may have mistaken the reason Moctezuma wasnt secure in his rule when Cortez arrived.

 

[raharris1973]

taking a pessimistic approach, the Spanish system seems bound to break at some point, w/ the relationship between the king and Cortes progressively souring over fiscal policy issues

...turning the short-term pessimism into long-turn optimism maybe this trouble over reliably raising money forces the Spanish Crown and Cortes to a settlement that is something like British parliamentarism, so Spain becomes a country known for law and representative government.

As for the Inca depending how much time they are given expansion could occur to Colombia there is a simply a lot to conquer that is worth it

Very interesting, do you think it takes the Inca all the way up through Colombia, to Panama, and the Caribbean coast?

What about the other direction, do they extend down from the Andes to the Chaco, the Pampas, and the La Plata river to the Atlantic? Or down the Chilean spine to Tierra Del Fuego?

i was thinking more an english civil war, but that's fair too

I was thinking that could be the logical outcome of Crown versus Cortes struggles over revenue, more so than a French revolution system. But maybe Spain would build in too many tax exemptions, and that blows up in their face like France and its revolution. Not sure if it is possible to incorporate the ideas of the philisophes though and get the radical atheism into play down at the urban grassroots however.

 

[DJ03]

...turning the short-term pessimism into long-turn optimism maybe this trouble over reliably raising money forces the Spanish Crown and Cortes to a settlement that is something like British parliamentarism, so Spain becomes a country known for law and representative government.

that's the scenario I had in mind, though I'm wondering whether it would be called cortesismo ittl

I was thinking that could be the logical outcome of Crown versus Cortes struggles over revenue, more so than a French revolution system. But maybe Spain would build in too many tax exemptions, and that blows up in their face like France and its revolution.

possible. although, if ttl's dynastic situation looks similar yo our own, the Cortes may be willing to keep/ reinstate the king as a way to better protect their interests in parts of the empire not under the spanish crown

Not sure if it is possible to incorporate the ideas of the philisophes though and get the radical atheism into play down at the urban grassroots however.

idk. a possibile scenario could be Juan de Valdes staying and preaching his own brand of the Reformation in Spain.
iotl his followers in Italy eventually seem to have moved to some form of spiritual libertinism, so I could see an iberian version of Valdesianism developing into a network of clandestine groups of "free thinkers" that eventually transform in lodges of an alternate freemasonry. If these groups manage to penetrate spanish high society enough, that could be the basis for the spread of radical anticlerical and even antireligious ideas

 

[Silver01]

What about the other direction, do they extend down from the Andes to the Chaco, the Pampas, and the La Plata river to the Atlantic? Or down the Chilean spine to Tierra Del Fuego?

Not likely the was a lot of angry mapuche and nothing really worth the effort Chaco is even worse the guarani had developed a Germanic roman style relationship were many tribes would trade and raid the Incas while with no Portugal the guarani migrations would take longer they were already occuring

 

[Silver01]

up through Colombia, to Panama, and the Caribbean coast?

I think the max is the muisca further up north the Pacific coast is really not that good aside from the shell trade, reaching the Atlantic would also mean crossing a hard terrain so I would think the northern Inca border stops at the muisca but they would learn of the Caribbean

 

[raharris1973]

How much later do you think it would be with my PoD?

Your PoD - the 4th Crusade (1204) is way too long distance in time to make informed predictions. DJO3's is much better IMHO.

It also overplays this idea of Muslim rulership of key places being the motivator of exploration as opposed to the steady development of enabling technology and the desire of Western Europeans to get around the sheer number of middlemen, be they Muslim OR Christian between them and Far Eastern spices and silks. The latter two factors were more important than the first.

Racking up the motive for the Age of Exploration voyages to just the fall of Constantinople, which is what I am thinking is behind your focus on 4th Crusade, 1204, is too reductionist, because fall of Constantinople 1453 just changed ownership hand, and who collected tolls/tariffs at one trade chokepoint, Constantinople, mainly for silks, didn't block trade or necessarily affect prices all that much. The main spice route was under Egyptian, not Ottoman hands until 1517 anyway.

 

[raharris1973]

I think a better pod would be all Columbus' ships being lost at sea and nobody making it back to Europe. The reason for this is that by the 1500s the portuguese and english seem just too likely to stumble into south and north america respectively to prevent the notion of lands beyond the Atlantic from spreading, but not the notion that said land is of any interest

w/o Columbus, we can remove the Caribbean (and by extension Mesoamerica) from the equation, which prevents the short to mid term discovery of large empires and/or gold and silver deposits

it's likely the portuguese still discover Brazil, but see little point in penetrating much further west, thus slowing down their exploration of south america sgnfcntly
if at some point someone other than fishermen were to stumble upon Newfoundland &co, they'd prbbly just report of a cold, lightly populated, forested backwater and not spark any interest in european courts

a funny butterfly of Columbus not making it across the Atlantic would be that, lacking the notion of a central America (even as a collection of islands), the northern and southern landmasses are likely to get two different names

Looking at the Portuguese and Brazil. Yeah, it won't be all *that* exciting, with them not finding empires of gold and silver, just relatively simple natives, and also at the same time reaching the *real* Indian, China, Indies, and Japan.

But Brazil would not be worthless, and there would be no pesky Papal line of demarcation saying "STOP! at this part of the coast". Brazil would be a station for emergencies on the around Africa route where ships could take on fresh water. The Portuguese would totally set pigs roaming free to be a food source for future intentional voyages and castaways (I think they did this and the Spanish did it all over the Caribbean. They would notice the Brazil wood and its useful red dye and harvest it on stops. They might set goats free for another meat source.

They would probably interact with the natives enough over time to learn about maize, cassava and sweet potato from them, which they can all grow in other places. In any permanent stations on Brazil's coast they would plant cane plants for sugar, the main challenge would be keeping up a labor supply to cut and process it.

Then things become a question of how long after discovery and setting up a few settlements in Brazil do Portuguese captains decide, hey, let's find out the dimensions of this big island and try to circumnavigate it? They may not need to expect a great bg civilization in order to do that. Mostly geographic curiosity could motivate a look pretty far along the coast. If they get far enough to the north, they could find the Muisca in Colombia. Far enough south and around to the west, they could find the Inca. Then it all becomes *very* interesting. Timescales could vary quite a bit.

 

[DJ03]

Looking at the Portuguese and Brazil. Yeah, it won't be all *that* exciting, with them not finding empires of gold and silver, just relatively simple natives, and also at the same time reaching the *real* Indian, China, Indies, and Japan.

But Brazil would not be worthless, and there would be no pesky Papal line of demarcation saying "STOP! at this part of the coast". Brazil would be a station for emergencies on the around Africa route where ships could take on fresh water. The Portuguese would totally set pigs roaming free to be a food source for future intentional voyages and castaways (I think they did this and the Spanish did it all over the Caribbean. They would notice the Brazil wood and its useful red dye and harvest it on stops. They might set goats free for another meat source.

They would probably interact with the natives enough over time to learn about maize, cassava and sweet potato from them, which they can all grow in other places. In any permanent stations on Brazil's coast they would plant cane plants for sugar, the main challenge would be keeping up a labor supply to cut and process it.

Then things become a question of how long after discovery and setting up a few settlements in Brazil do Portuguese captains decide, hey, let's find out the dimensions of this big island and try to circumnavigate it? They may not need to expect a great bg civilization in order to do that. Mostly geographic curiosity could motivate a look pretty far along the coast. If they get far enough to the north, they could find the Muisca in Colombia. Far enough south and around to the west, they could find the Inca. Then it all becomes *very* interesting. Timescales could vary quite a bit.

i agree w/ pretty much everything. imo portuguese exploration of the americas is going to be quite delayed, but not at all avoided
what I think would happen is that a "less glamorous" colonization w/ more trade and exploration rather than outright conquest of fabulously wealthy empires would (over a longer period of time) prbbly attract less attention international attention, less people overall and (maybe) a different kind of people too: more Vespucci than Cortez