What would still happen if the central powers won ww1?

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

I think these events would still happen, but might be postponed or play out differently.
1. The austro-hungarian empire collapsing
2. The Ottoman empire collapsing
3. The great depression, or some kind of recession at least. Maybe better, maybe worse.

What about you guys?

 

[Evil Crusader]

When and how changes what happens next.
It's hard to provide opinions when the context has such heavy implications.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

I think these events would still happen, but might be postponed or play out differently.
1. The austro-hungarian empire collapsing
2. The Ottoman empire collapsing
3. The great depression, or some kind of recession at least. Maybe better, maybe worse.

What about you guys?

It depends on when they win. I don’t think Austria-Hungary collapsing is guaranteed. The Ottoman Empire might be harder, but I do think they could have held on to much of their empire too. I really don‘t think either of them needed to expand though. They needed to consolidate what they had. The trialists had a good idea. Expanding the dual monarchy into a triple monarchy under the Hapsburgs was the way forward. They needed to make their minorities feel more included in the imperial project. Give them something to cling to. The Hapsburgs could still remain in charge, but give the other ethnic groups that made up the Empire greater representation and a bit more autonomy.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

It depends on when they win. I don’t think Austria-Hungary collapsing is guaranteed. The Ottoman Empire might be harder, but I do think they could have held on to much of their empire too. I really don‘t think either of them needed to expand though. They needed to consolidate what they had. The trialists had a good idea. Expanding the dual monarchy into a triple monarchy under the Hapsburgs was the way forward. They needed to make their minorities feel more included in the imperial project. Give them something to cling to. The Hapsburgs could still remain in charge, But give the other ethnic groups that made up the Empire greater representation and a bit more autonomy.

Let's say the central powers win in 1918. By some miracle the Kaiserslacht plan succeeds and the Entente surrenders on November 11th, 1918. Alien space bats basically.

 

[Lalli]

1. The austro-hungarian empire collapsing
2. The Ottoman empire collapsing

Possible but I don't see that inevitable. At least A-H would has now better chances since it is victorious. OE would has still some troubles anyway but it could too survive.

3. The great depression, or some kind of recession at least. Maybe better, maybe worse.

Economic is always pretty hard to predict but some depression is indeed very inevitable.

I would say victory of Reds on Russian Civil War would still occur.

And China would has still shitty century.

Fascism would still rise but probably bit differently and definitely not in Germany.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

Possible but I don't see that inevitable. At least A-H would has now better chances since it is victorious. OE would has still some troubles anyway but it could too survive.



Economic is always pretty hard to predict but some depression is indeed very inevitable.

I would say victory of Reds on Russian Civil War would still occur.

And China would has still shitty century.

Fascism would still rise but probably bit differently and definitely not in Germany.

Maybe in the UK and France? The Treaty of Versailles was super harsh on Germany. No reason to think it would less harsh when directed towards the allies. Hell, we could see Oswald Moseley becoming prime minister (oh dear).

 

[von Adler]

I'm a bit weary on the idea that the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary would inevitable collapse even if they won ww1.

The old style Empires that did collapse only did so because their armies were defeated - because their whole state structure depended in the end on the prestige of their army. If that prestige is intact and they have an army to deal with any kind of insurrection, they can and will do that.

Germany also had a vested interest in supporting its allies against any kind of insurgency and/or national revolution or breakaway movement. They hardly wanted more feuding small nations to keep in control - a larger Empire was a much better ally and a much more stable trading and investment partner.

Up to 1918, multi-ethnic Empires were the default way the world was ruled. The age of nationalism really only became the natural state of things because Russia, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire lost the war.

If they win the war, neither the Ottoman Empire nor Austira-Hungary will fly apart.

 

[Lalli]

Maybe in the UK and France? The Treaty of Versailles was super harsh on Germany. No reason to think it would less harsh when directed towards the allies. Hell, we could see Oswald Moseley becoming prime minister (oh dear).

France could indeed go with fascism but Britain is unlikely. Germans are not able to enforce harsh terms to Brits so there is not reason for bitterness.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

I'm a bit weary on the idea that the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary would inevitable collapse even if they won ww1.

The old style Empires that did collapse only did so because their armies were defeated - because their whole state structure depended in the end on the prestige of their army. If that prestige is intact and they have an army to deal with any kind of insurrection, they can and will do that.

Germany also had a vested interest in supporting its allies against any kind of insurgency and/or national revolution or breakaway movement. They hardly wanted more feuding small nations to keep in control - a larger Empire was a much better ally and a much more stable trading and investment partner.

Up to 1918, multi-ethnic Empires were the default way the world was ruled. The age of nationalism really only became the natural state of things because Russia, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire lost the war.

If they win the war, neither the Ottoman Empire nor Austira-Hungary will fly apart.

Yeah you're probably right. Cool name btw.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

1. The austro-hungarian empire collapsing

AH had ethnical problems but most minorities wanted to work inside the system, since you don't have Franz Joseph some reforms will probably happen, I would be more worried about the likely Italian gains in terms of rebelliousness.

2. The Ottoman empire collapsing

The Ottomans were in a tough spot by 1918 but I think that what will happen is that it will end up having similar borders to Turkey since the Entente doesn't want to continue fighting, I don't know if Kemal would manage to come to power but since he is a war hero and he would have support from the reformist parties he definitely isn't unlikely to.

3. The great depression, or some kind of recession at least. Maybe better, maybe worse.

The Great Depression was caused by the incredible growth of the US in the 20's thanks to the fact that they were the new economic center of the world and an inflationary bubble which is unlikely to happen in Germany, here Germany is the economic center of the world and they wouldn't follow the same path as the US.
Some kind of recession is not unlikely to happen at some point but on the other side it's (almost) always the US who caused them OTL so they probably would be less common, but surely if it happens it's much better than OTL Great Depression.

 

[DUWANG]

France could indeed go with fascism but Britain is unlikely. Germans are not able to enforce harsh terms to Brits so there is not reason for bitterness.

I'd always imagine Fascism could still start in Italy and in this TL spread towards Spain, Greece and Portugal (although semi-fascist) like in OTL, but also in France.
Germany doesn't have a reason to become Fascist. The Habsburg monarchy would literally die if any Fascist took power and the British with their stable history and most probable soft peace deal will also have no reason to resort to either Fascism or Socialism.

Perhaps here Fascism is often seen as a purely Latin/Catholic thing. Kinda like how in popular media everything Slavic is somewhat connected with eastern block Communism.

 

[Lalli]

I'd always imagine Fascism could still start in Italy and in this TL spread towards Spain, Greece and Portugal (although semi-fascist) like in OTL, but also in France.
Germany doesn't have a reason to become Fascist. The Habsburg monarchy would literally die if any Fascist took power and the British with their stable history and most probable soft peace deal will also have no reason to resort to either Fascism or Socialism.

Perhaps here Fascism is often seen as a purely Latin/Catholic thing. Kinda like how in popular media everything Slavic is somewhat connected with eastern block Communism.

Fascism probably resembles Italian fascism before Mussolini felt love with Hitler and nazism. Fascism might has too more clerical and traditionalist outlook.

 

[DUWANG]

Fascism probably resembles Italian fascism before Mussolini felt love with Hitler and nazism. Fascism might has too more clerical and traditionalist outlook.

Mostly probably.
Especially if it spreads west into France and Iberia. Then it would be very connected with the Church.
Might even resemble Austrofascism and National Catholicism.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Regardless of the result (CP victory, Allied/Entente victory, white peace, exhausting stalemate) I feel fairly confident in predicting a second round within a couple of decades, as the loser would seek to reverse their fortunes, or the nations thinking that this time they will get it right.

 

[Xx_Pro_State_Exam_xX]

Regardless of the result (CP victory, Allied/Entente victory, white peace, exhausting stalemate) I feel fairly confident in predicting a second round within a couple of decades, as the loser would seek to reverse their fortunes, or the nations thinking that this time they will get it right.

Oh yeah, definitely. After 4 years of fighting it didn't matter who won, there'd ve a second one. Maybe if ww1 somehow did end by Christmas than ww2 would never have happened. Or maybe some things are simply meant to happen. Who knows. We'll never really know.

 

[Lalli]

Regardless of the result (CP victory, Allied/Entente victory, white peace, exhausting stalemate) I feel fairly confident in predicting a second round within a couple of decades, as the loser would seek to reverse their fortunes, or the nations thinking that this time they will get it right.

WW2 in CP victory TL is pretty unlikely. Not imnpossible but not likely either. France already lost two wars against Germany in 50 years. It has not much will to take round three. Probably even totalitarian dictatorship is not able to pull that. Furthermore France would be so severely punished that it is simply unable to begin anything even if it would want.

Britain wouldn't suffer territorial losses or anything else so it has not reason to start new war.

Soviet Union is far too poor condition to begin war and without Ukraine and Baku oil fields it is even weaker. Furthermore if Stalin still takes power he is not willingful to do that anyway. He would know that him has not chances.

Italy is simply too weak.

Smaller powers has not any chances.

United States is not intrested.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

WW2 in CP victory TL is pretty unlikely. Not imnpossible but not likely either. France already lost two wars against Germany in 50 years. It has not much will to take round three. Probably even totalitarian dictatorship is not able to pull that. Furthermore France would be so severely punished that it is simply unable to begin anything even if it would want.

Britain wouldn't suffer territorial losses or anything else so it has not reason to start new war.

Soviet Union is far too poor condition to begin war and without Ukraine and Baku oil fields it is even weaker. Furthermore if Stalin still takes power he is not willingful to do that anyway. He would know that him has not chances.

Italy is simply too weak.

Smaller powers has not any chances.

United States is not intrested.

Will there be a Soviet Union? Depends upon how the CP win. Too many butterflies. A surviving Tsarist Russia, or even a White Russian government, would be looking to reclaim lost lands.

 

[LoftonHenderson]

I would say victory of Reds on Russian Civil War would still occur.

Would a victorious Imperial Germany allow a Red victory in Russia?

 

[Elfwine]

Would a victorious Imperial Germany be able to prevent a red victory in Russia?

 

[Lalli]

Will there be a Soviet Union? Depends upon how the CP win. Too many butterflies. A surviving Tsarist Russia, or even a White Russian government, would be looking to reclaim lost lands.

Red Russia is still very likely option unless CPs manage to win WW1 very early and even then survival of tsarist regime is pretty unlikely.

Would a victorious Imperial Germany allow a Red victory in Russia?

Germany is not happy surely but not sure if it could do much with that anyway.