During the first Balkan war after the Balkan alliance's victory the only thing between the bulgarians and the Ottoman Capitol were the last deefensive line of the Chataldzha. At that point in most european capitals it was assumed that Constatinople falling to the bulgarians is only a matter of time. As it turned out the Ottomans managed to stop the bulgarians surprising everyone.
During this period Russia was very agitated. The prospect of Bulgaria getting Constantinople was unacceptable for them. Because of this Russia began preparation for an amphibious attack to take the city - either from the turks or the bulgarians. During the whole crisis this possibility remained on the table for Russia though OTL they never went ahead with it.
What if the russians not only try it sometimes early 1913 but also succeed. By creating a fait accompli they would have created a crisis separate from the one already ongoing by the Balkan wars. What would be the reactions?
Please bear in mind that both Russia and Austria had gone very far with their military preparations in the winter of 1913 - Russia by retaining the soldiers who were supposedly done with their military service basically raised to wartime strength some of its western armies. Austria matched this - but Germany did not. So Germany would be caught pants down with this. Lets also add that Russia states that it will only mobilize if its western neighbours do so. The second Balkan war is also still coming.
France: would not be happy about this move but would not abandon Russia. They were too invested and actually Poincaré urged Russia to war at times during the 1913 crisis. Russia was seen (to a much greater extend than it was realistic) as the dominant power of the future - meaning that contrary to the actual situation Russia wasnt going to depend on France for its security and the french alliance might become a liability for Saint Petersburg. Further I dont think that with Poincaré in office France would change track. OTOH France had the most money invested from the great powers in the Ottoman Empire so its disintegration would be a heavy financial blow for Paris.
UK: I thing they might abandon Russia. Public opinion would be very strong against the Russian move. Grey would be placed in a very difficult position and might lose his position if he doesnt do anything against Russia. If a war starts from this London might sit it out or join much later.
Germany: was heavily invested in the continued survival of the Ottoman Empire. However it was far behind Russia in military preparedness at the moment so any rash action is out of the question. Also OTL in 1914 the government managed to sell the war to the people as self defense because Russia started mobilizing first. This time they would need to sell the war they start to reinstall the turks in Constantinople. Thats much harder to do. The absence or a much weaker form of the Burgfrieden would hamper a german wareffort severly.
Austria: It was the only other power militarily prepared. If a war started out of this the Austrians avoid their OTL 1914 botched mobilization and as the serbians ar still fighting in macedonia there is no danger there. They are however the least interested in the fate of Constantinople - they could try to use it as a bargaining chip - they accept the fait accompli in exchange of Russia either dropping Serbia or at least Serbian claims.
Ottomans: even if we assume that at least part of their leaderhip managed to get away during the surprise attack they will be still in huge chaos and turmoil. I dont think they would be able to react in a timely manner. Might the western powers decide on a partition?
During this period Russia was very agitated. The prospect of Bulgaria getting Constantinople was unacceptable for them. Because of this Russia began preparation for an amphibious attack to take the city - either from the turks or the bulgarians. During the whole crisis this possibility remained on the table for Russia though OTL they never went ahead with it.
What if the russians not only try it sometimes early 1913 but also succeed. By creating a fait accompli they would have created a crisis separate from the one already ongoing by the Balkan wars. What would be the reactions?
Please bear in mind that both Russia and Austria had gone very far with their military preparations in the winter of 1913 - Russia by retaining the soldiers who were supposedly done with their military service basically raised to wartime strength some of its western armies. Austria matched this - but Germany did not. So Germany would be caught pants down with this. Lets also add that Russia states that it will only mobilize if its western neighbours do so. The second Balkan war is also still coming.
France: would not be happy about this move but would not abandon Russia. They were too invested and actually Poincaré urged Russia to war at times during the 1913 crisis. Russia was seen (to a much greater extend than it was realistic) as the dominant power of the future - meaning that contrary to the actual situation Russia wasnt going to depend on France for its security and the french alliance might become a liability for Saint Petersburg. Further I dont think that with Poincaré in office France would change track. OTOH France had the most money invested from the great powers in the Ottoman Empire so its disintegration would be a heavy financial blow for Paris.
UK: I thing they might abandon Russia. Public opinion would be very strong against the Russian move. Grey would be placed in a very difficult position and might lose his position if he doesnt do anything against Russia. If a war starts from this London might sit it out or join much later.
Germany: was heavily invested in the continued survival of the Ottoman Empire. However it was far behind Russia in military preparedness at the moment so any rash action is out of the question. Also OTL in 1914 the government managed to sell the war to the people as self defense because Russia started mobilizing first. This time they would need to sell the war they start to reinstall the turks in Constantinople. Thats much harder to do. The absence or a much weaker form of the Burgfrieden would hamper a german wareffort severly.
Austria: It was the only other power militarily prepared. If a war started out of this the Austrians avoid their OTL 1914 botched mobilization and as the serbians ar still fighting in macedonia there is no danger there. They are however the least interested in the fate of Constantinople - they could try to use it as a bargaining chip - they accept the fait accompli in exchange of Russia either dropping Serbia or at least Serbian claims.
Ottomans: even if we assume that at least part of their leaderhip managed to get away during the surprise attack they will be still in huge chaos and turmoil. I dont think they would be able to react in a timely manner. Might the western powers decide on a partition?
