What if: Karl XII stays in Livonia after Düna 1701?

[von Adler]

After the tactical victory at Düna 1701, Sweden seemed rather safe. The Danes had been forced out of the war by a landijng near Copenhagen, the Russian army had been crushed at Narva and the Saxonian-Polish army had been driven away from Livonia and Riga at Düna.

Karl XII, opting to destroy August II (the strong), marched into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to force August off the Polish throne, something that took 6 years. IN the meantime, the Russians rebuilt and started attacking Ingria, Kexholm and Estonia.

While going after August seemed like the obvious choice at the time (Karl XII wanted a friendly Polish King and an alliance with Poland against Russia) since they had the only existing army in the field against Sweden, what if Karl XII opted for strategic defence instead, remaining in Livonia?

Would the Russians be able to rebuild and train their forces in the same way? Fighting small swedish detachements and attacking and taking fortifications did a lot to improve the new Russian army by providing experience, if the main Sweidsh army is in the area, the Russians could be forced to battle and be defeated, or no?

Would the Poles, who were less than thrilled by August's intended reforms - the war was mostly a way for him to regain Polish Livonia and gain the prestige needed for centralising reforms of the Commonwealth, work with him even if the Swedes are not coming down on them?

The Swedish Army was until 1708 or so superior to all it faced in Poland and Russia, without the long attrition in Poland and the devastating defeat at Poltava, could the Swedish army's superiority be maintained?

 

[arctic warrior]

Interesting take, but would it suit Karl?
From the little I've read on him probably not but it does look like the sensible alternative. And with Livonia brought up to Swedish standard socially it may be even harder!

 

[von Adler]

Well, he was content leaving Denmark unravaged when it offered peace. He wanted to end the war, but perhaps if the Poles declared some kind of neutrality - they did not consider themselves at war with Sweden, it was Saxony that was at war with Sweden and even though August was king of Poland, he did not have the right to declare war.

If Karl XII can be convinced it will not further his interests to invade Poland (perhaps the Polish Sejm declares neutrality?) he woudl stay in Livonia and then go for the Russians?

 

[arctic warrior]

Well, he was content leaving Denmark unravaged when it offered peace.

Isn't this about it all?

He wanted to end the war, but perhaps if the Poles declared some kind of neutrality - they did not consider themselves at war with Sweden, it was Saxony that was at war with Sweden and even though August was king of Poland, he did not have the right to declare war.

If Karl XII can be convinced it will not further his interests to invade Poland (perhaps the Polish Sejm declares neutrality?) he woudl stay in Livonia and then go for the Russians?

I take it that if August would offer peace Karl would then not invade Poland - situation vis a vis Denmark.

Karl would then probably go after the Russians for finishing them off.

 

[abas]

Well, he was content leaving Denmark unravaged when it offered peace. He wanted to end the war, but perhaps if the Poles declared some kind of neutrality - they did not consider themselves at war with Sweden, it was Saxony that was at war with Sweden and even though August was king of Poland, he did not have the right to declare war.

If Karl XII can be convinced it will not further his interests to invade Poland (perhaps the Polish Sejm declares neutrality?) he woudl stay in Livonia and then go for the Russians?

But AFAIK they did exactly that.

 

[von Adler]

Lets say someone manages to convince Karl XII that the Polish Sejm neutrality declaration means that he can go after the Russians instead.

What would be the likely next step by August?