Three Ottoman defeats

[von Adler]

It might be slightly ASBish, but what if;

1. Nicopolis 1396 is a victory for the Crusaders, perhaps reversing much of the Ottoman gains after Kosovo 1389, inciting the Bulgarians, Wallachs and Serbs to revolt.

2. Timur Lenk (Tamerlane) wins as historically 1402.

3. The Byzantines go on the (limited) offensive they are capable of, breaking the blockade they are under, perhaps trying to expand in Thrace, going for Thessalonica and Nicea with Genoese support?

I don't imagine this will keep the Ottomans down. Their efficienc administration, tolerance and good leadership made them superior in the long run to any other Balkan or Mid-East state. But how long until they bounce back? What can be the Ottoman worst-case scenario? How long will Constantinople remain in Greek hands in this scenario?

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

It might be slightly ASBish, but what if;

1. Nicopolis 1396 is a victory for the Crusaders, perhaps reversing much of the Ottoman gains after Kosovo 1389, inciting the Bulgarians, Wallachs and Serbs to revolt.

2. Timur Lenk (Tamerlane) wins as historically 1402.

3. The Byzantines go on the (limited) offensive they are capable of, breaking the blockade they are under, perhaps trying to expand in Thrace, going for Thessalonica and Nicea with Genoese support?

I don't imagine this will keep the Ottomans down. Their efficienc administration, tolerance and good leadership made them superior in the long run to any other Balkan or Mid-East state. But how long until they bounce back? What can be the Ottoman worst-case scenario? How long will Constantinople remain in Greek hands in this scenario?

If Beyazid had lost at Nicopolis, assuming he lived, he would have been forced to come to terms with Timur rather than fighting Ankara. In OTL, the Sultan basically said "Bring it" to Timur; in this case I don't see that happening. The Sultan was already powerful in this era, but he would have been stopped by the ruling class.

The Byzantines, on the other hand, are just too weak to do anything constructive in this period. Perhaps control over the Morea can be expanded, but it's not looking good.

Nicopolis would be a bigger blow to the empire than Ankara, in my opinion... if it could be followed up. I'm not sure the Crusader army had the legs to do so.

 

[von Adler]

Had the Ottomans already made the Balkans their main power base? It is only a few decades since they really crossed into Europe (1354, was it not?) and the Bulgarians are vassals rather than incorporated, are they not?

What was Timur's demands on the Ottomans?

Didn't the Byzantines control Philadelphia and Thessaloniki for at least some time during this era? How did they get thier hands on those cities?

 

[BrotherToAll]

if it could be followed up. I'm not sure the Crusader army had the legs to do so.

They didn't have the legs for it, the Crusaders had one good victory in them then they would have been spent and forced to withdraw anyway.

 

[von Adler]

Even if the Serbs and Bulgars rise in revolt? I am aware they wont be carving up a Latin Empire in Ottoman European territory, but if the Ottomans are defeated and up to their neck in revolts, I can imagine the crusader army laying siege to something at least before melting away.

 

[BrotherToAll]

Even if the Serbs and Bulgars rise in revolt? I am aware they wont be carving up a Latin Empire in Ottoman European territory, but if the Ottomans are defeated and up to their neck in revolts, I can imagine the crusader army laying siege to something at least before melting away.

If the Bulgars and Serbs rise up its no consequence to the Crusaders they checked Ottoman power and thats all that mattered to them. The Hungarians will have secured their southern border and maybe taken some border lands that with majority Catholic populations but other than that nothing is really going to really change hands at this point and the Crusaders will go home with their victory content. There really wasn't support for a great crusade at the time and to be honest they would have suffered very heavy casualties as well which would also contribute to their withdrawl.

The Crusaders aren't that stupid if they beat the Ottomans and suddenly the Bulgars and Serbs rise in revolt they won't want to stike around. So for all intense and purposes after securing Hungarys southern borders the Crusaders will haul ass back home as fast as they can.

Or atleast thats how I see it.