Thoughts on the Population Reductions in Timeline 191?

A major criticism of TL191 is that the population reductions, the Confederate genocide of the Black Southern population, is implausible. Because conducting the genocide of 30% of your population, a population disproportionately represented among your menial workforce, is implausible.

It’s a criticism that I agreed with until recently, when I started doing research on the Holocaust for my own TL, I’ve come to the conclusion that this criticism is based on a misunderstanding of the text. Whilst the Population Reductions in TL191 may not be plausible they are necessary for the story being told. Simply put there is no other way for Confederate society to go in the TL191 books.

One common dimension to this criticism is that it would make more sense for the Freedomites to advocate for the return of slavery rather than genocide. The problem is that this policy is what the aristocratic conservatives want ITTL. And Jake Featherston was not an aristocrat. Featherston was the son of an impoverished slave overseer. He had no nostalgia for the system of slavery and he considered the aristocracy idiots due to the conduct of his officers during the war.
The Freedom Party are fascists not conservatives. Due to the Marxist uprisings and the conduct of black soldiers he interacts with during the Great War Featherston becomes convinced that black people’s betrayal led the Confederacy being defeated. Much as Hitler’s dislike of Jews was transformed into genocidal hate thanks to the “stab in the back” myth and conspiracy theories about Jews being behind the German Revolution, Featherston’s prejudices were hardened and revolutionised by the war. In his view preventing the loss of the next war requires the extermination of black people. This is the same kind of thinking that motivated the Armenian Genocide and the Holocaust. Turtledove here demonstrates a ready understanding of the mindset behind many real-life genocides.

Why doesn’t Jake the Snake advocate for the return of slavery? Because Featherston’s party program is not reaching back into some mythologised past (you can see this in little details such as the way he despises George Washington for being “too Yankee”) but forwards to a revolutionary future. A future in-which there are no black people in the Confederacy.

The revolutionary nature of fascism demands that the fascist state be racially and culturally homogeneous. From as early as 1919 Hitler was calling for the murder of tens of thousands of Jews. From 1923 onwards Hitler made public his intent to make Germany a state for Germans only. Even “moderate” fascist Bennito Mussolini committed genocide in Libya and complained about the immigration of Libyan labourers to Italy.

Where does this drive for a “racially pure homeland” come from in Our Timeline? As I’ve previously stated Nazism specifically emerged out of the misery and humiliation of the Great War but its ideological roots went further back. German antisemitism was rooted in the völkisch idea that the Germans were tied to the soil of Germany whilst Jews were a city-dwelling foreign force. But most Jews concentrated in the cities due to Medieval antisemitism driving them out of the countryside and preventing them from owning land. The German antisemites were complaining about a state of affairs that were of the Germans’ own making.

Freedomites in TL191 use a similar logic - blaming Black Southerners for a situation White Southerners have caused. The aristocratic planters created a system which shut black people out. Much like Jews in Germany due to the constraints placed upon them Black Southerners can never integrate into White Southern society. The system of apartheid ensures that there is a degree of separation between the two races. Interracial marriage is practically non-existent. Black Southerners live in areas separated from their white counterparts. Black people do not hold political office and most blacks cannot even vote. This is a situation infinitely more dire than the Jews faced in the Weimar Republic where they could vote, hold office, and marry gentiles. Hugo Preuss, a Jewish lawyer, wrote the Weimar constitution. It would be unimaginable for a black man to write such a document in TL191. In-effect a lot of the Freedomites’ work segregating the black population from the white population has already been done for them before they come to power in 1933.

There’s an urban legend that Turtledove’s original plan for the series was for the Central Powers to lose the Great War. Gordon McSweeney would then take power as a fascist dictator and undertake a genocide of Black Americans after invading the South. On paper the US makes a much more tempting Germany analogue than the Confederacy. Black people in the North were a tiny minority in the TTL 1920s-30s, much as the Jews were in Germany, and would serve as an easy scapegoat since they can be blamed for “dragging” the US into war with the CS for their own gain. The larger percentage of Black people in the United States’ main enemy even serves as an equivalent for the larger percentage of Jews living in Eastern Europe.
On paper. The problem with this theory is that it turns TL-191 into the story of a totalitarian United States being the real enemy of black peoples. What I suspect Turtledove’s intentions were with TL191 was to write a story about challenging conventional portrayals of the Confederacy in alternate history fiction. And you can’t really do that if the villains in the culminating trilogy is the Union.

It’s easy to forget but before TL-191 there was a strong current in alternate history fiction which presented the idea of a Confederate victory in a positive light. Hallie Marshall: A True Daughter of the South by Frank Williams, one of the earliest counterfactuals concerning a Confederate victory, features the South using black soldiers and freeing the slaves on its own without Northern pressure. Winston Churchill himself once wrote a short story which depicts a world in-which Lee wins at Gettysburg, takes New York, frees the slaves, and the victorious Confederacy ushers in a new era of world peace. MacKinlay Kantor’s If the South Had Won the Civil War (which we know was a major influence on Turtledove) sees the Union and Confederacy reconcile soon after the civil war, eventually reunite as a nation to face off against the Soviets in Alaska, and (of course) the Confederacy frees the slaves on its own. GURPS Alternate Earths (a book of role playing settings) features a world where the Confederacy won and by the TTL 1990s has the highest standard of living in Earth. Even Turtledove’s own Guns of the South falls into this trap somewhat by portraying Lee as a wise and generous victor who ultimately pushes the Confederates to abandon slavery over moral concerns.

In writing TL191 I believe Turtledove set out with the goal of showing just how foul a Confederate victory would be for America. In TL191 the manumission of the slaves is forced on the Confederacy by pressure from its allies. Said manumission does not free the slaves. Black southerners become “resident aliens” and replaces slavery with a system of apartheid. Instead of being magnanimous, chivalrous paragons of virtue the Confederate aristocracy are presented as flawed and self-interested. The Confederate government’s expansionism plunges North America into war three separate times. The Confederacy was founded on the principle that black people should be slaves to whites. That black people were inferior to white people. That is a fundamentally evil idea upon which to base the foundation of your nation. And it is an idea which lends itself, inevitably, to genocide.
 
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Where does this drive for a “racially pure homeland” come from in Our Timeline? As I’ve previously stated Nazism specifically emerged out of the misery and humiliation of the Great War but its ideological roots went further back. German antisemitism was rooted in the völkisch idea that the Germans were tied to the soil of Germany whilst Jews were a city-dwelling foreign force. But most Jews concentrated in the cities due to Medieval antisemitism driving them out of the countryside and preventing them from owning land. The German antisemites were complaining about a state of affairs that were of the Germans’ own making.

Freedomites in TL191 use a similar logic - blaming Black Southerners for a situation White Southerners have caused. The aristocratic planters created a system which shut black people out. Much like Jews in Germany due to the constraints placed upon them Black Southerners can never integrate into White Southern society. The system of apartheid ensures that there is a degree of separation between the two races. Interracial marriage and fraternisation is practically non-existent. Black Southerners live in areas separated from their white counterparts. Black people do not hold political office and most blacks cannot even vote. This is a situation infinitely more dire than the Jews faced in the Weimar Republic where they could vote, hold office, and marry gentiles. Hugo Preuss, a Jewish lawyer, wrote the Weimar constitution. It would be unimaginable for a black man to write such a document in TL191. In-effect a lot of the Freedomites’ work segregating the black population from the white population has already been done for them before they come to power in 1933.
Adding to this, one could argue that the Confederate "Population Reduction" has more in common with a hypothetical genocide of Jews committed in a Fascist Russia than with the Holocaust in how German Jews were a fairly well-integrated and assimilated minority hard to distinguish from their gentile neighbors (with the general assimilated nature of Western European Jews a major factor in why they, outside of German and Dutch Jews, had higher survival rates than Eastern European Jews) unlike the Jews of Russia who were largely concentrated in Shtetls in the Pale of Settlement and actively discriminated against by the Tsarist government.
 
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bguy

Donor
A major criticism of TL191 is that the population reductions, the Confederate genocide of the Black Southern population, is implausible. Because conducting the genocide of 30% of your population, a population disproportionately represented among your menial workforce, is implausible.

I don't think people think the population reductions are implausible because the Confederates would be unwilling to kill their black population. Rather people think the reductions are implausible because there is just no way the Confederates could conduct a holocaust while also making a credible fight against the United States (a nation that has double the population of the CSA and is much more industrialized.) Realistically the diversion of the resources necessary to support the population reductions would have caused the Confederate war effort to quickly collapse.

On paper. The problem with this theory is that it turns TL-191 into the story of a totalitarian United States being the real enemy of black peoples. What I suspect Turtledove’s intentions were with TL191 was to write a story about challenging conventional portrayals of the Confederacy in alternate history fiction. And you can’t really do that if the villains in the culminating trilogy is the Union.

Even beyond the thematic reasons why it would be a bad idea, the idea of the US losing the First Great War never made any sense. The US population around 1914 in TL-191 should be over 60 million. The Confederate non-black population around that time would be somewhere over 20 million and Canada's population would be around 8 million. The US thus massively outweighs the Confederates and CSA (and that's even before considering what a Red Revolution would mean to the Confederate war effort.) There's just no plausible way to have a US that has actually prepared for the conflict would lose the war when it has such a massive population advantage over the Confederates and Canadians. (Frankly, it was already stretching plausibility to the breaking point that the Confederates and Canadians lasted as long as they did.)

In writing TL191 I believe Turtledove set out with the goal of showing just how foul a Confederate victory would be for America. In TL191 the manumission of the slaves is forced on the Confederacy by pressure from its allies. Said manumission does not free the slaves. Black southerners become “resident aliens” and replaces slavery with a system of apartheid. Instead of being magnanimous, chivalrous paragons of virtue the Confederate aristocracy are presented as flawed and self-interested. The Confederate government’s expansionism plunges North America into war three separate times. The Confederacy was founded on the principle that black people should be slaves to whites. That black people were inferior to white people. That is a fundamentally evil idea upon which to base the foundation of your nation. And it is an idea which lends itself, inevitably, to genocide.

Interesting theory. The one issue I would take with it though is that if Turtledove was trying to show how evil the Confederates were then why did he have them give up slavery so easily in How Few Remain? (Yes, the British did pressure the Confederates to give up slavery in that novel, but Longstreet agreed when the Confederates were under no real military pressure yet and was somehow able to get the Confederate Congress to go along with his proposal with barely any resistance. Having the Confederates agree to abolition so easily seems like a very white washed view of the Confederate States.
 
You hit the nail on the head. Genocide of the blacks was generations in the making for the CSA, even if the CSA's creators may not have intended it literally when enshrining slavery in their constitution. Anyone who believes the CSA would not have ended up that bad is probably a Lost-Causer. The fate of the CSA was either genocide of their non-white populace, or economic/national collapse. We all know that socialism/communism would never arrive in the CSA, it would've been labeled as "negro degeneracy".
 
I've always been curious, and even questioned the role of the Mexicans in all this. They do have a big role in this timeline at first, with the CSA buying their territory and the US getting pissy about it in the Second Mexican War. However, the Mexican people were vehemently anti-slavery (abolishing slavery in 1829 and even having an Afro-Mexican President do it), and even allowing escaped slaves into their borders through the Underground Railroad network.

I feel like the Mexicans in this timeline, living in the CSA, would become a sort of selectively persecuted group, second to the blacks. They're not black, but they're not "white" either. They are fine with black people, hell, they even mixed with them back in their home country, while the whites would rather swallow a knife than look at a black person. There could be a possibility of Mexican (and perhaps Cuban Natives) being assimilated enough into white society, becoming more like our timeline's German Jews, in terms of wealth, job opportunities, political roles, marriage with whites (and even blacks) and standards of living. However, they could possibly be more kinder to the blacks, which may lead to them being selectively ostracized by White Southerners, and they could even be a significant part of the CSA's Radical Liberal Party, which I believed was a party with leftwing ideas and supported giving blacks rights.

The point here is that I personally believe that the Mexican-Confederates would become a second target of the Black Death (I'm calling it that), basically being the equivalent to the Polish and Soviet peoples (secondary victims of our timeline's Holocaust) of this timeline, due to their history of being more racially tolerant in general, and also having Native American ancestry which will make whites perceive them as "savages", which will work well with Freedom Party propaganda about how the Blacks and Mexicans are brutes that need to be put down. Hell, since Mexicans have wealth and some even having "white"-passing skin color, the Freedomites could come up with an "infiltrator" conspiracy of Mexicans passing as white to pollute the Confederate populace and bring about the "tyranny of negro-mexican race-mixing". Hell, they would be an even smaller portion of the CS population than the blacks. And since the Mexican-Confederates have a possibility of being politically and financially stable pre-Featherston (like the German Jews pre-Hitler), it's possible that it is them that brings awareness to the genocide happening, since the blacks would be too poor and generationally fucked to bring awareness to the US and the world.

The only flipside to this is that Mexico (Empire or Republic) would probably be disturbed by their so-called ally being a racist dick, and would decide to cut relations with them or even join the US against the CS (and perhaps gaining Sonora and Chihuahua as a reward). But that would also further weaken the CSA's numbers and shorten the war. That's probably why Turtledove didn't do much with Mexico in this timeline and left them as a bumbling ally of the CS in both World Wars that didn't do jackshit.
 
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I don't think people think the population reductions are implausible because the Confederates would be unwilling to kill their black population. Rather people think the reductions are implausible because there is just no way the Confederates could conduct a holocaust while also making a credible fight against the United States (a nation that has double the population of the CSA and is much more industrialized.) Realistically the diversion of the resources necessary to support the population reductions would have caused the Confederate war effort to quickly collapse.
Agreed. You can have the Population Reductions or an invasion of the United States. You can’t have both.
Even beyond the thematic reasons why it would be a bad idea, the idea of the US losing the First Great War never made any sense. The US population around 1914 in TL-191 should be over 60 million. The Confederate non-black population around that time would be somewhere over 20 million and Canada's population would be around 8 million. The US thus massively outweighs the Confederates and CSA (and that's even before considering what a Red Revolution would mean to the Confederate war effort.) There's just no plausible way to have a US that has actually prepared for the conflict would lose the war when it has such a massive population advantage over the Confederates and Canadians. (Frankly, it was already stretching plausibility to the breaking point that the Confederates and Canadians lasted as long as they did.)
I think the issue with the First Great War as it was presented in the text is that the consequences of each nation’s actions never really made sense.
There’s no way the Confederacy focusing on narrow stretches of its frontier, such as the Roanoke Front, doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass. Frankly with a frontier that massive there’s no way a whites-only Confederate Army can effectively defend the whole thing.
I also feel, with all the Kaiserreich allusions in TTL Union, that Turtledove was taking a subtle jab at historical determinism. Its a fun red herring which, to judge by the popularity of the McSweeney=Hitler theory, a lot of people fell for hook-line-and-sinker.
Interesting theory. The one issue I would take with it though is that if Turtledove was trying to show how evil the Confederates were then why did he have them give up slavery so easily in How Few Remain? (Yes, the British did pressure the Confederates to give up slavery in that novel, but Longstreet agreed when the Confederates were under no real military pressure yet and was somehow able to get the Confederate Congress to go along with his proposal with barely any resistance. Having the Confederates agree to abolition so easily seems like a very white washed view of the Confederate States.
Thank you. And to your question I’d say - the system they replace it with isn’t much better. Apartheid in the Confederacy implements makes Black Southerners resident aliens in their own country, denies them basic civil rights, and keeps them bound to the plantations. Take Marshlands, Anne Colleton’s plantation, for instance. Most of the workers there live in conditions no better than they did under slavery. The whole reason the Red Rebellions erupt with such ferocity is because black people aren’t being given basic dignities under Apartheid. In-short the manumission of Southern slaves does not change the structure of Confederate society
Most importantly the manumission act is not something the Confederates do out of the goodness of their hearts. President James Longstreet is probably one of the most sympathetic Confederate characters in the series. But this action he takes to “free” the slaves is not done out of a moral obligation. It is undertaken to secure future alliances with Britain and France. These are the actions of a flawed and self-interested man. Should there have been more pushback in the Confederate Congress? Absolutely. But that can be explained as being due to this event coming at the end of an, already very long, novel.
You hit the nail on the head. Genocide of the blacks was generations in the making for the CSA, even if the CSA's creators may not have intended it literally when enshrining slavery in their constitution. Anyone who believes the CSA would not have ended up that bad is probably a Lost-Causer. The fate of the CSA was either genocide of their non-white populace, or economic/national collapse. We all know that socialism/communism would never arrive in the CSA, it would've been labeled as "negro degeneracy".
Bingo. There’s no happy ending to a society that’s so socially stratified. Either revolution, secession, or destruction.
I've always been curious, and even questioned the role of the Mexicans in all this. They do have a big role in this timeline at first, with the CSA buying their territory and the US getting pissy about it in the Second Mexican War. However, the Mexican people were vehemently anti-slavery (abolishing slavery in 1829 and even having an Afro-Mexican President do it), and even allowing escaped slaves into their borders through the Underground Railroad network.

I feel like the Mexicans in this timeline, living in the CSA, would become a sort of selectively persecuted group, second to the blacks. They're not black, but they're not "white" either. They are fine with black people, hell, they even mixed with them back in their home country, while the whites would rather swallow a knife than look at a black person. There could be a possibility of Mexican (and perhaps Cuban Natives) being assimilated enough into white society, becoming more like our timeline's German Jews, in terms of wealth, job opportunities, political roles, marriage with whites (and even blacks) and standards of living. However, they could possibly be more kinder to the blacks, which may lead to them being selectively ostracized by White Southerners, and they could even be a significant part of the CSA's Radical Liberal Party, which I believed was a party with leftwing ideas and supported giving blacks rights.

The point here is that I personally believe that the Mexican-Confederates would become a second target of the Black Death (I'm calling it that), basically being the equivalent to the Polish and Soviet peoples (secondary victims of our timeline's Holocaust) of this timeline, due to their history of being more racially tolerant in general, and also having Native American ancestry which will make whites perceive them as "savages", which will work well with Freedom Party propaganda about how the Blacks and Mexicans are brutes that need to be put down. Hell, since Mexicans have wealth and some even having "white"-passing skin color, the Freedomites could come up with an "infiltrator" conspiracy of Mexicans passing as white to pollute the Confederate populace and bring about the "tyranny of negro-mexican race-mixing". Hell, they would be an even smaller portion of the CS population than the blacks. And since the Mexican-Confederates have a possibility of being politically and financially stable pre-Featherston (like the German Jews pre-Hitler), it's possible that it is them that brings awareness to the genocide happening, since the blacks would be too poor and generationally fucked to bring awareness to the US and the world.

The only flipside to this is that Mexico (Empire or Republic) would probably be disturbed by their so-called ally being a racist dick, and would decide to cut relations with them or even join the US against the CS (and perhaps gaining Sonora and Chihuahua as a reward). But that would also further weaken the CSA's numbers and shorten the war. That's probably why Turtledove didn't do much with Mexico in this timeline and left them as a bumbling ally of the CS in both World Wars that didn't do jackshit.
I definitely think it’s an oversight how Mexicans are treated as a monolith. There’s no way a lot of the WASP planter elite that run the CSA would allow dark-skinned Mexicans into the halls of power as equal partners. I can see Confederate leaders selectively promoting and protecting the interests of the criollo elite to the detriment of lower-class Mexicans of indigenous descent. I was always disappointed we never got any mention of the Yaqui fighting the Confederates in Sonora.
 
I definitely think it’s an oversight how Mexicans are treated as a monolith. There’s no way a lot of the WASP planter elite that run the CSA would allow dark-skinned Mexicans into the halls of power as equal partners. I can see Confederate leaders selectively promoting and protecting the interests of the criollo elite to the detriment of lower-class Mexicans of indigenous descent. I was always disappointed we never got any mention of the Yaqui fighting the Confederates in Sonora.

One thing that Turtledove just doesn't touch on is the possibility of the Mexican Empire industrializing and modernizing with help of British and French investments. Hell, they would probably industrialize at a desirable rate and better than the Confederates would, since the Confederates were so anti-industry to their own detriment. I personally don't believe that with the Mexican Empire existing for as long as they did, on top of being allies with Britain and France for a good few significant years, that Mexico would stay stagnant with a backwards economy. If Mexico was modernized like I think they would be, they would honestly have lots of economic leverage over the backwards-agrarian Confederacy, which will surely piss off the Confederate aristocracy who are jealous of the majority dark-skinned nation down south being their true masters.
 
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it's been a while since I read the books, but weren't the Mexicans (both immigrants and native born) seen as the 'replacements' for the black population being slaughtered, in that they would take over the menial jobs the latter were doing? Also, weren't the men all allowed to vote? I had the vague idea that the Hispanic population absorbed with the purchase of the two Mexican states were definitely regarded as second class citizens, but not really despised, at least nowhere near as much as the black population was...
 
While I agree with an invasion of the Union and the Population Reduction (at least as it occurred in the books) being mutually exclusive, I don’t think an attempted genocide of the black Confederate population is mutually exclusive with an invasion depending on the means. I think a more likely way of carrying out an attempt would be something akin to the Khmer Rouge or the extermination through labor technique the Nazis attempted to use on the Slavs IOTL (if I recall correctly it was mostly reserved for the Slavs as a means of genocide, correct me if I’m wrong).

Why this method instead of the gas chambers? It would allow for the Confederacy to exploit their black population as cheap or free labor towards the war effort which would allow them to achieve the invasion they desired while also more or less bringing back slavery but in a modern 20th century setting. It would also allow for millions of deaths which Featherston was actively seeking albeit a more realistic number (probably not more than the 6 million Jews killed IOTL’s Holocaust and certainly not the 10 million implied in the Population Reduction in the books).

I think essentially re-legalizing slavery and exploiting in a wartime setting that would allow for millions to die would be a far more unique and realistic way to show how extremely racist and depraved the CSA has become under fascist rule in the Southern Victory series. It would also allow a more successful invasion of the United States with an additional labor pool to tap into. In addition to the African American population being a much larger proportion of the Confederacy than the Jewish population of Europe IOTL, Nazi Germany was far more industrialized than the Confederacy here and thus had far more resources to contribute towards the extermination camps. Even the Nazis IOTL realized that the Slavs would not be as easy to kill off thanks to much more favorable demographics hence starvation and extermination through labor were factored, and I think this would be a much more analogous situation with the black Confederate population based on demographics alone.
 
One thing that Turtledove just doesn't touch on is the possibility of the Mexican Empire industrializing and modernizing with help of British and French investments. Hell, they would probably industrialize at a desirable rate and better than the Confederates would, since the Confederates were so anti-industry to their own detriment. I personally don't believe that with the Mexican Empire existing for as long as they did, on top of being allies with Britain and France for a good few significant years, that Mexico would stay stagnant with a backwards economy. If Mexico was modernized like I think they would be, they would honestly have lots of economic leverage over the backwards-agrarian Confederacy, which will surely piss off the Confederate aristocracy who are jealous of the majority dark-skinned nation down south being their true masters.

Mexico on TL-191 is indeed bit oddball. Emperor Maximilian was fairly liberal man and he would had wanted make the country liberal and modern nation. Yes, he died pretty early ITTL but still him should had been enough of time to do lot of things. And would CSA really been able to keep Mexico as puppet state? Perhaps yet during FGW but not really sure that it could had anymore been possible during SGW. Did CSA even promised to Mexico anything if they would win either First or Second Great War? At least during SGW it would had made more sense that Mexico would had turned its guns against CSA and would had taken Sonora and Chihuahua.

While I agree with an invasion of the Union and the Population Reduction (at least as it occurred in the books) being mutually exclusive, I don’t think an attempted genocide of the black Confederate population is mutually exclusive with an invasion depending on the means. I think a more likely way of carrying out an attempt would be something akin to the Khmer Rouge or the extermination through labor technique the Nazis attempted to use on the Slavs IOTL (if I recall correctly it was mostly reserved for the Slavs as a means of genocide, correct me if I’m wrong).

Why this method instead of the gas chambers? It would allow for the Confederacy to exploit their black population as cheap or free labor towards the war effort which would allow them to achieve the invasion they desired while also more or less bringing back slavery but in a modern 20th century setting. It would also allow for millions of deaths which Featherston was actively seeking albeit a more realistic number (probably not more than the 6 million Jews killed IOTL’s Holocaust and certainly not the 10 million implied in the Population Reduction in the books).

I think essentially re-legalizing slavery and exploiting in a wartime setting that would allow for millions to die would be a far more unique and realistic way to show how extremely racist and depraved the CSA has become under fascist rule in the Southern Victory series. It would also allow a more successful invasion of the United States with an additional labor pool to tap into. In addition to the African American population being a much larger proportion of the Confederacy than the Jewish population of Europe IOTL, Nazi Germany was far more industrialized than the Confederacy here and thus had far more resources to contribute towards the extermination camps. Even the Nazis IOTL realized that the Slavs would not be as easy to kill off thanks to much more favorable demographics hence starvation and extermination through labor were factored, and I think this would be a much more analogous situation with the black Confederate population based on demographics alone.

Agree. This would had made more sense for CSA.
 
it's been a while since I read the books, but weren't the Mexicans (both immigrants and native born) seen as the 'replacements' for the black population being slaughtered, in that they would take over the menial jobs the latter were doing? Also, weren't the men all allowed to vote? I had the vague idea that the Hispanic population absorbed with the purchase of the two Mexican states were definitely regarded as second class citizens, but not really despised, at least nowhere near as much as the black population was...
I think that a big issue with that is that in 1940, Mexico had a population of 20 million or so people. Without Chihuahua and Sonora this would definitely be less. If 10 million African Confederates were killed and were all replaced by Mexican, I don’t think Mexico would be able to survive that sort of population shift.
 
I think that a big issue with that is that in 1940, Mexico had a population of 20 million or so people. Without Chihuahua and Sonora this would definitely be less. If 10 million African Confederates were killed and were all replaced by Mexican, I don’t think Mexico would be able to survive that sort of population shift.
well, don't forget that a lot of what the CSA black population did was agricultural work, running small farms, working on big white owned farms, and a lot of those jobs went away with mechanization. And I'd think that even if the Freedomites knew about the ramifications of their genocidal policy, they'd do it anyway...
 
I think that a big issue with that is that in 1940, Mexico had a population of 20 million or so people. Without Chihuahua and Sonora this would definitely be less. If 10 million African Confederates were killed and were all replaced by Mexican, I don’t think Mexico would be able to survive that sort of population shift.

Surely they would launch some agricultural industrialisation. Probably there was already industrialisation on-going. It just was necessity in 20th century and even bigger when you want to wage wars. So it wouldn't be too big issue for Mexico. And even it would be, Freedomites hardly care about that.
 
well, don't forget that a lot of what the CSA black population did was agricultural work, running small farms, working on big white owned farms, and a lot of those jobs went away with mechanization. And I'd think that even if the Freedomites knew about the ramifications of their genocidal policy, they'd do it anyway...
Surely they would launch some agricultural industrialisation. Probably there was already industrialisation on-going. It just was necessity in 20th century and even bigger when you want to wage wars. So it wouldn't be too big issue for Mexico. And even it would be, Freedomites hardly care about that.
Even if industrialization and mechanization effectively replaced half those jobs, there would still be a population shift in Mexico by about 5 million people which would be over 20% of its population. That would still be a big issue for the Mexican government.
 
Mexico on TL-191 is indeed bit oddball. Emperor Maximilian was fairly liberal man and he would had wanted make the country liberal and modern nation. Yes, he died pretty early ITTL but still him should had been enough of time to do lot of things. And would CSA really been able to keep Mexico as puppet state? Perhaps yet during FGW but not really sure that it could had anymore been possible during SGW. Did CSA even promised to Mexico anything if they would win either First or Second Great War? At least during SGW it would had made more sense that Mexico would had turned its guns against CSA and would had taken Sonora and Chihuahua.
Given the dire straits in which the US finds itself after 1882 and the existing relationship between Mexico and France/Britain, I think it's more appropriate to speak of Mexico as Britain's client than the CSA's until 1917. Most industrial investment from London and Paris, debts held by British banks, etc. And, IIRC, they don't do much more in the FGW than other minor Entente allies did IOTL (Portugal and Siam both sent troops to the trenches, as Mexico might send troops to shore up the CS's lines).

One has to wonder if the Mexicans might have been tempted to stab the CS in the back in 1917. With US troops rushing through Texas in the end, and Britain also on the ropes, the Emperor might have ordered his forces in Sonora and Chihuahua to turn their guns on their erstwhile allies and reclaim two (or more? Maybe at least push the Texan border back a touch...) states while getting on the winning side. Maybe there's a TTL Zimmerman telegram to that effect.
 
One has to wonder if the Mexicans might have been tempted to stab the CS in the back in 1917. With US troops rushing through Texas in the end, and Britain also on the ropes, the Emperor might have ordered his forces in Sonora and Chihuahua to turn their guns on their erstwhile allies and reclaim two (or more? Maybe at least push the Texan border back a touch...) states while getting on the winning side. Maybe there's a TTL Zimmerman telegram to that effect.

Perhaps. Or at least Mexico would had done that during SGW when it was clear that CSA won't survive from the war.

Or perhaps relationships between Mexico and CSA begin already to become worse during 1930's. I have even thought on my head TL where Mexican PM is saved by some heroic black guy and he begin turn against ultra-racist Freedomite CSA and finally ends to war with CSA. What? What FOM vibes?
 
Perhaps. Or at least Mexico would had done that during SGW when it was clear that CSA won't survive from the war.

Or perhaps relationships between Mexico and CSA begin already to become worse during 1930's. I have even thought on my head TL where Mexican PM is saved by some heroic black guy and he begin turn against ultra-racist Freedomite CSA and finally ends to war with CSA. What? What FOM vibes?
Mexico's civil war in the 1920s is the reason it went for the CS.

If the civil war goes the other way (meaning, if the Socialists don't piss away a golden opportunity), a Mexico friendly to the US is highly likely.
 
Mexico's civil war in the 1920s is the reason it went for the CS.

If the civil war goes the other way (meaning, if the Socialists don't piss away a golden opportunity), a Mexico friendly to the US is highly likely.

Speaking of that, how on god's Earth did the war-damaged CSA successfully support the Mexican Imperials? Now, I can understand the US deciding to do not prioritize geopolitics after WW1, but the CSA should not have been in the position to properly support the monarchists in Mexico due to the damaged state they were in.
 
I know it's a minor plot-point but the Socialists not supporting the Mexican Rebels is frankly ASB.

The Confederates shouldn't have been able to support the Monarchists either. Their economy and stability was too shit for them to care about foreign affairs. But you know, Turtledove needed his Spanish Civil War parallel.
 
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