1971 - 1972 - The Embers of an Alliance
This is something that I have been working on assiduously since the last two months. This is my second most serious project after 'When it rains, it pours! A Frederick the sixth ISOT!'
The concept is what would happen if the Bangladesh Liberation war were to occur 14 years later on than OTL? Let's say in 1984 instead of 1971. What if India abandoned Non-Alignment and joined the Warsaw Pact? How would the dominoes fall?
_______________________________
1971 March: West Pakistan launches Operation searchlight, a planned military operation carried out by the Pakistan Army to curb the Bengali nationalist movement in East Pakistan in March 1971 which the Pakistani state retrospectively justifies on the basis of anti-Bihari violence by Bengali's in early March. Ordered by the central government in West Pakistan,The original plan envisions taking control of all of East Pakistan's major cities on 26 March, and then eliminating all Bengali opposition, political or military, within one month.
1971 April: US consulate in Dhaka publishes the famous dissent note, 'The Blood Telegram' voicing protest against US indifference to the ongoing genocide. Instead, Archer Blood is recalled and US indicates indifference emboldening West Pakistan.
1971 June: The scale of the violence horrifies Bengali citizenry both in East Pakistan and India. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the leader of the Bengali diaspora in East Pakistan flees to India under stringent urging from Indian intelligence agencies who warn him of imminent threat to his life.
1971 July: Indian govt begins to consider the possibility of intervening as the flood of refugees into India is beginning to rise and will soon become unmanageable.
1971 September: The Mukti Bahini and Kader Bahini resistance groups are created, and training of cadre begins in earnest. Indian intelligence agency RAW begins training the guerrillas and they are supplied with weapons and resources.
1971 October: The guerrillas begin their operations and soon major skirmishes are held in the border areas of Chittagong. Fierce clashes are held between them and the Pakistani military.
1971 November: Alarmed by the prospect of Indian intervention, which could jeopardize their chances of using West Pakistan as a conduit for rapprochement with China, US decides to intervene on the side of West Pakistan. US National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger bluntly warns India that Indian military intervention will not be tolerated as this is an internal matter for the Pakistan government. One of the most memorable events in world diplomacy is then witnessed when one the envoys for the Indian side, the youngest son of the Indian Prime Minister, Sanjay Gandhi, who is present in an unofficial capacity calls Kissinger a 'worthless son of a bitch'. He goes on to claim that when Kissinger's people were subjected to genocide, the world came through to help them, and yet when another set of people are suffering the same he was willing to do nothing just to achieve his political aims. He was nothing but a Nazi in another color, Gandhi claimed. The infuriated Kissinger and Gandhi then literally come to blows and have to be pulled apart but not before Kissinger suffers a broken jaw. This cements Kissinger's antipathy towards India and emboldens him to take a hard-line stance against the Indian government and its interests.
1971 December: Informed by the CIA that the Indians would intervene militarily, Nixon takes drastic action and sends three carrier groups to the Bay of Bengal. A flight of American jets publicly bomb a camp of Mukti Bahini in an overt show of support to West Pakistan. Alarmed by this, the USSR sends in a flotilla of nuclear attack submarines in a show of support to India. But by then, Operation searchlight has nearly succeeded and has completely wiped out all dissidents in East Pakistan. Only the remnants who fled to India are now surviving.
With the US carrier groups present, the Indian govt decides on whether or not to proceed. While it was given that India would prevail over West Pakistan, US interference was guaranteed, and the Indian's were not certain that the USSR would risk war with the American's for their sake.
Grudgingly, the Indian govt decides not to go ahead and Mujib is informed of the same. Though frustrated, Mujib realizes that India is being forced at nuclear gunpoint to stand down, and Mujib reluctantly declares the formation of the Bangladeshi govt-in-exile. It is agreed to keep the guerrilla war on-going on a permanent basis to ensure that East Pakistan never stabilizes.
At the deepest level, the Indian govt decides that India must become a nuclear power at any cost to avoid being so humiliated again.
*******************************
1972 January: Yahya Khan proudly declares the crushing of the dissident rebellion in East Pakistan. Kangaroo trials are held for the surviving Bengali leaders who were unfortunate enough to be caught and they are summarily executed. West Pakistan revels at the public humiliation of India and celebrations are held all over the country. Yahya Khan's popularity soars to its peak.
The Indian govt takes stock of the situation. The consensus is unanimous. Non-Alignment has failed, and the US has proven itself to be an enemy. Steps must be taken to correct the power balance. The USSR is approached and quietly feelers are sent about the possibility of India joining the Warsaw Pact and Com-econ.
1972 February: Indian govt also begins preparations for scrapping article 370 of their constitution granting limited autonomy to the state of Kashmir which is the flash-point between Pakistan and India.
Meanwhile the KGB learns of the plans of the US to use West Pakistan as a conduit to begin rapprochement with China. The politburo deems such an outcome unacceptable and begins to plan operations to disrupt this process.
1972 March: Sanjay Gandhi flies covertly to Moscow as an emissary from his mother Indira Gandhi, the PM of India. There the details of Indian membership to Warsaw Pact and Com-econ are discussed. It is agreed that India's membership will be accepted, but at Indian request, this is kept secret. Instead, India then places a huge order of military equipment with USSR. Primarily aircraft carriers. The US show of force had forced the Indian govt to realize that without a true military deterrent they would never be respected. The deal is struck for four aircraft carriers to be built for India and to be handed over in ten years. Since the construction cannot be hidden, the USSR will announce that it is beginning to rethink carrier doctrine after the Bay of Bengal actions by the US Navy. But in reality, once the carriers are completed, they will be sailed to the Bay of Bengal as a show of force and then publicly handed over to India.
In return, India will first announce its accession to Com-econ to facilitate trade and begins trade with raw materials and other goods with the USSR. As a consequence, many educated Indian youngsters will travel to the USSR and gain employment in Russian industries. The recent action of the US has soured the image of US as a friendly place of opportunity and work and this forces talented Indian scientists and engineers to look for other sources of gainful employment. This facilitates a huge surplus of brainpower towards the USSR and scientific co-operation between India and USSR begins in earnest which will reap rich dividends down the line.
1972 May: The KGB decides that US plan for rapprochement with China is fast approaching and could happen within 2 months. RAW is informed and a plan to stop it is proposed. As an added impetus, the KGB informs India that the previous prime minister of India, Lal Bahadur Shastri, was actually assassinated in Tashkent by the CIA to appease Pakistan. Similarly, the preeminent Indian nuclear scientist Homi Bhabha's death too is attributed to the CIA. This inflames the Indian govt, which decides to reciprocate.
1972 June: A Bengali survivor of the genocide in East Pakistan manages to assassinate Yahya Khan with a suicide attack by strapping himself with explosives during a public rally. Yahya Khan, and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto are killed in this attack. CIA suspects that this was orchestrated by India, which is true, though no evidence is found. This seriously hampers US attempt to contact Beijing, as Kissinger was scheduled to visit Beijing secretly in the latter part of June. US Plans are shelved for the moment as the situation is deemed too unstable.
1972 July: Protests erupt in Islamabad over Yahya Khan's assassination and Pakistan blames India. Another round of violence against surviving Bengali's erupts in East Pakistan. By now, the Mukthi Bahini has entrenched itself and conducts secret evacuations of Bengali citizens covertly. India rejects the claims of Pakistan and demands proof.
1972 August: Satisfied by the Indian sincerity to the Warsaw pact and its cause, Yuri Andropov begins to draw up plans to impede American overtures to China as it would seriously undermine the USSR. To that extent, he finally conceives of a brilliant plan. To force a Sino-Indian rapprochement before the Americans have a chance to pull China into their orbit. He conceives a trilateral grouping involving Russia, India and China holding all of Asia and half of humanity under their sway, thereby permanently excluding the US from Asian affairs for all time. He proposes this concept to Brezhnev who is electrified, and signals his assent to the concept.
1972 November: The proposed trilateral is vaguely couched to the Indian's who seem receptive, but evince doubts as they are not sure Mao would accept. The Indians signal that they are ready for a rapprochement with China even if they are on the losing end, as they need to secure their flanks against Pakistan urgently. The Russian foreign minister Gromyko assures that he will begin to work on Mao.
Sanjay Gandhi stumbles upon a brilliant plan wherein he proposes a solution to the Tibetan issue. For the last decade, the Dalai Lama was in India after fleeing China, which was the root cause of bellicosity between India and China. He proposes that the Dalai Lama accept the suzerainty of the Chinese over Tibet and surrender publicly to Mao to appease his ego. In return, the Chinese would install the Dalai Lama as a religious symbol and figurehead for Tibetan Buddhists. The Dalai Lama would cede all political power to China and China would permit the Tibetan's the right to practice Buddhism and maintain their culture in return for their loyalty to China. At the same time, India would accept proper boundary demarcations between India and China, and would suitably address Chinese concerns.
The USSR was requested to felicitate this meeting. Gromyko promises to take this to the highest levels of the Politburo where it was approved and feelers were sent to Mao by the Russians.
*******************************
Author's note: This will be a timeline on a two-year basis. The foundations of the trilateral are being laid down and in ten years the Bangladesh war will happen with drastic consequences to the west.
The concept is what would happen if the Bangladesh Liberation war were to occur 14 years later on than OTL? Let's say in 1984 instead of 1971. What if India abandoned Non-Alignment and joined the Warsaw Pact? How would the dominoes fall?
_______________________________
1971 March: West Pakistan launches Operation searchlight, a planned military operation carried out by the Pakistan Army to curb the Bengali nationalist movement in East Pakistan in March 1971 which the Pakistani state retrospectively justifies on the basis of anti-Bihari violence by Bengali's in early March. Ordered by the central government in West Pakistan,The original plan envisions taking control of all of East Pakistan's major cities on 26 March, and then eliminating all Bengali opposition, political or military, within one month.
1971 April: US consulate in Dhaka publishes the famous dissent note, 'The Blood Telegram' voicing protest against US indifference to the ongoing genocide. Instead, Archer Blood is recalled and US indicates indifference emboldening West Pakistan.
1971 June: The scale of the violence horrifies Bengali citizenry both in East Pakistan and India. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the leader of the Bengali diaspora in East Pakistan flees to India under stringent urging from Indian intelligence agencies who warn him of imminent threat to his life.
1971 July: Indian govt begins to consider the possibility of intervening as the flood of refugees into India is beginning to rise and will soon become unmanageable.
1971 September: The Mukti Bahini and Kader Bahini resistance groups are created, and training of cadre begins in earnest. Indian intelligence agency RAW begins training the guerrillas and they are supplied with weapons and resources.
1971 October: The guerrillas begin their operations and soon major skirmishes are held in the border areas of Chittagong. Fierce clashes are held between them and the Pakistani military.
1971 November: Alarmed by the prospect of Indian intervention, which could jeopardize their chances of using West Pakistan as a conduit for rapprochement with China, US decides to intervene on the side of West Pakistan. US National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger bluntly warns India that Indian military intervention will not be tolerated as this is an internal matter for the Pakistan government. One of the most memorable events in world diplomacy is then witnessed when one the envoys for the Indian side, the youngest son of the Indian Prime Minister, Sanjay Gandhi, who is present in an unofficial capacity calls Kissinger a 'worthless son of a bitch'. He goes on to claim that when Kissinger's people were subjected to genocide, the world came through to help them, and yet when another set of people are suffering the same he was willing to do nothing just to achieve his political aims. He was nothing but a Nazi in another color, Gandhi claimed. The infuriated Kissinger and Gandhi then literally come to blows and have to be pulled apart but not before Kissinger suffers a broken jaw. This cements Kissinger's antipathy towards India and emboldens him to take a hard-line stance against the Indian government and its interests.
1971 December: Informed by the CIA that the Indians would intervene militarily, Nixon takes drastic action and sends three carrier groups to the Bay of Bengal. A flight of American jets publicly bomb a camp of Mukti Bahini in an overt show of support to West Pakistan. Alarmed by this, the USSR sends in a flotilla of nuclear attack submarines in a show of support to India. But by then, Operation searchlight has nearly succeeded and has completely wiped out all dissidents in East Pakistan. Only the remnants who fled to India are now surviving.
With the US carrier groups present, the Indian govt decides on whether or not to proceed. While it was given that India would prevail over West Pakistan, US interference was guaranteed, and the Indian's were not certain that the USSR would risk war with the American's for their sake.
Grudgingly, the Indian govt decides not to go ahead and Mujib is informed of the same. Though frustrated, Mujib realizes that India is being forced at nuclear gunpoint to stand down, and Mujib reluctantly declares the formation of the Bangladeshi govt-in-exile. It is agreed to keep the guerrilla war on-going on a permanent basis to ensure that East Pakistan never stabilizes.
At the deepest level, the Indian govt decides that India must become a nuclear power at any cost to avoid being so humiliated again.
*******************************
1972 January: Yahya Khan proudly declares the crushing of the dissident rebellion in East Pakistan. Kangaroo trials are held for the surviving Bengali leaders who were unfortunate enough to be caught and they are summarily executed. West Pakistan revels at the public humiliation of India and celebrations are held all over the country. Yahya Khan's popularity soars to its peak.
The Indian govt takes stock of the situation. The consensus is unanimous. Non-Alignment has failed, and the US has proven itself to be an enemy. Steps must be taken to correct the power balance. The USSR is approached and quietly feelers are sent about the possibility of India joining the Warsaw Pact and Com-econ.
1972 February: Indian govt also begins preparations for scrapping article 370 of their constitution granting limited autonomy to the state of Kashmir which is the flash-point between Pakistan and India.
Meanwhile the KGB learns of the plans of the US to use West Pakistan as a conduit to begin rapprochement with China. The politburo deems such an outcome unacceptable and begins to plan operations to disrupt this process.
1972 March: Sanjay Gandhi flies covertly to Moscow as an emissary from his mother Indira Gandhi, the PM of India. There the details of Indian membership to Warsaw Pact and Com-econ are discussed. It is agreed that India's membership will be accepted, but at Indian request, this is kept secret. Instead, India then places a huge order of military equipment with USSR. Primarily aircraft carriers. The US show of force had forced the Indian govt to realize that without a true military deterrent they would never be respected. The deal is struck for four aircraft carriers to be built for India and to be handed over in ten years. Since the construction cannot be hidden, the USSR will announce that it is beginning to rethink carrier doctrine after the Bay of Bengal actions by the US Navy. But in reality, once the carriers are completed, they will be sailed to the Bay of Bengal as a show of force and then publicly handed over to India.
In return, India will first announce its accession to Com-econ to facilitate trade and begins trade with raw materials and other goods with the USSR. As a consequence, many educated Indian youngsters will travel to the USSR and gain employment in Russian industries. The recent action of the US has soured the image of US as a friendly place of opportunity and work and this forces talented Indian scientists and engineers to look for other sources of gainful employment. This facilitates a huge surplus of brainpower towards the USSR and scientific co-operation between India and USSR begins in earnest which will reap rich dividends down the line.
1972 May: The KGB decides that US plan for rapprochement with China is fast approaching and could happen within 2 months. RAW is informed and a plan to stop it is proposed. As an added impetus, the KGB informs India that the previous prime minister of India, Lal Bahadur Shastri, was actually assassinated in Tashkent by the CIA to appease Pakistan. Similarly, the preeminent Indian nuclear scientist Homi Bhabha's death too is attributed to the CIA. This inflames the Indian govt, which decides to reciprocate.
1972 June: A Bengali survivor of the genocide in East Pakistan manages to assassinate Yahya Khan with a suicide attack by strapping himself with explosives during a public rally. Yahya Khan, and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto are killed in this attack. CIA suspects that this was orchestrated by India, which is true, though no evidence is found. This seriously hampers US attempt to contact Beijing, as Kissinger was scheduled to visit Beijing secretly in the latter part of June. US Plans are shelved for the moment as the situation is deemed too unstable.
1972 July: Protests erupt in Islamabad over Yahya Khan's assassination and Pakistan blames India. Another round of violence against surviving Bengali's erupts in East Pakistan. By now, the Mukthi Bahini has entrenched itself and conducts secret evacuations of Bengali citizens covertly. India rejects the claims of Pakistan and demands proof.
1972 August: Satisfied by the Indian sincerity to the Warsaw pact and its cause, Yuri Andropov begins to draw up plans to impede American overtures to China as it would seriously undermine the USSR. To that extent, he finally conceives of a brilliant plan. To force a Sino-Indian rapprochement before the Americans have a chance to pull China into their orbit. He conceives a trilateral grouping involving Russia, India and China holding all of Asia and half of humanity under their sway, thereby permanently excluding the US from Asian affairs for all time. He proposes this concept to Brezhnev who is electrified, and signals his assent to the concept.
1972 November: The proposed trilateral is vaguely couched to the Indian's who seem receptive, but evince doubts as they are not sure Mao would accept. The Indians signal that they are ready for a rapprochement with China even if they are on the losing end, as they need to secure their flanks against Pakistan urgently. The Russian foreign minister Gromyko assures that he will begin to work on Mao.
Sanjay Gandhi stumbles upon a brilliant plan wherein he proposes a solution to the Tibetan issue. For the last decade, the Dalai Lama was in India after fleeing China, which was the root cause of bellicosity between India and China. He proposes that the Dalai Lama accept the suzerainty of the Chinese over Tibet and surrender publicly to Mao to appease his ego. In return, the Chinese would install the Dalai Lama as a religious symbol and figurehead for Tibetan Buddhists. The Dalai Lama would cede all political power to China and China would permit the Tibetan's the right to practice Buddhism and maintain their culture in return for their loyalty to China. At the same time, India would accept proper boundary demarcations between India and China, and would suitably address Chinese concerns.
The USSR was requested to felicitate this meeting. Gromyko promises to take this to the highest levels of the Politburo where it was approved and feelers were sent to Mao by the Russians.
*******************************
Author's note: This will be a timeline on a two-year basis. The foundations of the trilateral are being laid down and in ten years the Bangladesh war will happen with drastic consequences to the west.
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