The Anglo/American - Nazi War - The on-going mystery

[Gukpard]

I bet that is an interesting question:

WI: Nazis got nukes?

Do you see, it took twenty years for the USSR to catch up with the number of nukes that the USA had

Assuming the nazis had nukes, they would launch it regardless of how many nukes the allies have, thus the result would be a way shorter, and way more brutal war, Maybe London, Glasgow and other cities on the UK are nuked, and in exange the most populous parts of germany on this TL would be the lesser populated OTL since the rest would be composed of irradiated ruins

 

[Lalli]

Do you see, it took twenty years for the USSR to catch up with the number of nukes that the USA had

Assuming the nazis had nukes, they would launch it regardless of how many nukes the allies have, thus the result would be a way shorter, and way more brutal war, Maybe London, Glasgow and other cities on the UK are nuked, and in exange the most populous parts of germany on this TL would be the lesser populated OTL since the rest would be composed of irradiated ruins

It might be possible that Holiday Bombings would had commited by nukes if Nazis would had developed them already on early 1950's. So New York would be nuked too.

But their nukes probably would are quiet ineffective and not cause much of radiation and cities would are safe to live again in ten years.

 

[Father Maryland]

Do you see, it took twenty years for the USSR to catch up with the number of nukes that the USA had

Assuming the nazis had nukes, they would launch it regardless of how many nukes the allies have, thus the result would be a way shorter, and way more brutal war, Maybe London, Glasgow and other cities on the UK are nuked, and in exange the most populous parts of germany on this TL would be the lesser populated OTL since the rest would be composed of irradiated ruins

Honestly considering the situation after the St. Patricks Day Raid I could see the Allies responding by nuking most of the major German cities, logistical nodes, industrial centers, and a lot of the largest SS/Luftwaffe bases. Followed by amphibious landings and pushing in conquering or destroying the non irradiated bits of the Reich.

Just feels more realistic to me then the TL version where the Allies try going mostly conventional (obviously they do use nuclear air to air missiles in the St. Patricks Day Raid and respond heavily when the Germans break out chemical and biological weapons). Just feels more realistic to me then the Allies accepting the truly vast casualties that trying a mostly conventional (at least at first invasion) would and did result in. What were the casualty figures for Allied troops in TL? I believe they were like three million. Considering the mindset of the A4 if it's a choice of three million gold star mothers or unleashing nuclear hell throughout the central reich (and tactical strikes in the greater reich) I figure the POTUS would go for "Da Bomb".

 

[AK47Productions]

What were the casualty figures for Allied troops in TL? I believe they were like three million.

Casualties mentioned at the end of the TL:

190,000,000 Total dead
155,000,000 Civilian dead (including 62 million from the USSR, 29 million Poles, 21 million Chinese, 13.5 million “German” 9.5 million Japan, 8 million “Southern Resource Area”, 5 Million “Western Europe”)
35,000,000 Military dead (includes 9 million Red Army, 11.5 million Werhmacht/Waffen SS, 6 million Japanese military, 5 million Nationalist Chinese)
71,000,000 Total deaths suffered by Soviet Union (mostly due to forced labor and starvation)
85% Percentage of Pre-war Polish population killed or unaccounted for by war’s end
97.5% Percentage of pre-war European Jewry liquidated by Reich
$3,800,000,000,000 Economic impact (measured in 1960 U.S. Dollars)
$2,175,000,000,000 U.S. share of total Economic Impact
147,000,000 Troops who performed military duties between 1/1/1937 and 3/15/1961
400,000,000 Number of civilians left homeless/displaced for at least seven days due to military action (this amounts to roughly one person in five alive during the war)

 

[Polish Eagle]

I was flipping through the first few pages of the timeline again recently and noticed that the Kwantung Army actually fought on ITTL long after the Home Islands themselves capitulated--how long did this hybrid of the Sino-Japanese War and Chinese Civil War ultimately last?

Also, since the timeline has mention of Allied land forces engaging Japanese troops (and encountering T-34-85s and Panthers in Japanese service), that indicates there were substantial (presumably American and ANZAC) land forces operating in China after 1945. Was there ever any though to invading the USSR to cut off the supply of raw materials and slave labor from Molotov's rump state, using the same logic by which the British planned the Norwegian campaign? Not like there was much Red Army to put up a fight by then. I know there was a massive American buildup in the Soviet Far East, anyway, but was there any thought to pushing all the way to the Urals?

 

[AK47Productions]

I'm also reading through the TL again and am currently trying to work out who's line took the British throne following the Nazi missile attack on London.

Edit: Wait I think I got it now, it's Princess Margaret, Countess of Snowdon who's line got the throne in TTL 2019 now right?

Princess Margaret, Countess of Snowdon - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Captain Homicide]

Just feels more realistic to me then the Allies accepting the truly vast casualties that trying a mostly conventional (at least at first invasion) would and did result in.

CalBear addressed this.

The idea is that after millions of Japanese were starved to death and Allied forces witnessed the horrors of what Japan turned into due to extended blockade (on top of Allied troops suffering massive cases of PTSD from said horrors) they became a lot more conscious of civilian deaths when the Hot War began.

They already killed millions of innocent civilians in one war and so Allied governments had to be pushed to the extreme (in AANW it was Nazi use of WMDs) before they responded with nuclear weapons and anthrax to win another war.

 

[Bookmark1995]

CalBear addressed this.

The idea is that after millions of Japanese were starved to death and Allied forces witnessed the horrors of what Japan turned into due to extended blockade (on top of Allied troops suffering massive cases of PTSD from said horrors) they became a lot more conscious of civilian deaths when the Hot War began.

They already killed millions of innocent civilians in one war and so Allied governments had to be pushed to the extreme (in AANW it was Nazi use of WMDs) before they responded with nuclear weapons and anthrax to win another war.

When you read about the horrors of the TTL Second World War, you really sympathize (though not justify) with the A4 and why they do the things they did to keep the peace: because the horrors of war made them want to never deal with the same thing again.

 

[Johannes Parisiensis]

When you read about the horrors of the TTL Second World War, you really sympathize (though not justify) with the A4 and why they do the things they did to keep the peace: because the horrors of war made them want to never deal with the same thing again.

As said Calbear: "In the ATL, the worst is simply a much clearer vision, one that is still killing tens of thousands in Europe 30 years after the war ended. "

 

[englerp]

Horrible, horrible things.

I shudder to think how they would test them.

 

[Father Maryland]

I was flipping through the first few pages of the timeline again recently and noticed that the Kwantung Army actually fought on ITTL long after the Home Islands themselves capitulated--how long did this hybrid of the Sino-Japanese War and Chinese Civil War ultimately last?

Also, since the timeline has mention of Allied land forces engaging Japanese troops (and encountering T-34-85s and Panthers in Japanese service), that indicates there were substantial (presumably American and ANZAC) land forces operating in China after 1945. Was there ever any though to invading the USSR to cut off the supply of raw materials and slave labor from Molotov's rump state, using the same logic by which the British planned the Norwegian campaign? Not like there was much Red Army to put up a fight by then. I know there was a massive American buildup in the Soviet Far East, anyway, but was there any thought to pushing all the way to the Urals?

From what I understand allied forces were fighting substantial Japanese "Never Surrender" types for at least a year in China and Manchuria. In order to weaken and distract the Allies the Germans used the Trans Siberian railway to send the Kwangtung army large quantities of captured Soviet armaments/muinitions and some of the Germans own better equipment that they were phasing out themselves (early Panthers, Tiger 1/Tiger 2s, and Stug assault guns).

This caused the Chinese campaign to be substantially more bloody then if the Kwangtung army had been completely cut off. But it had the side effect for the allies of letting them actually fight a lot of the equipment the Germans were still using (and capture working and non working examples) and reform a lot of their own tactics/ revamp their equipment that would prove vital in the European campaign a decade later.

 

[Captain Homicide]

In AANW Beria was killed by his own men leading Molotov to end up as the leader in 1943.

What would have happened if Beria did end up as leader of what was left of the USSR?

Would he have fought on desperately or would he have signed a peace treaty with the Reich like Molotov?

 

[Clandango]

What is the level of devolution in the United Kingdom and what is the language policy? While A racist France or even De Gauls would have likely kept working at making everyone speak the French of Paris, I imagine the Germans may have supported the Breton, Norman, Picard, and Flemish speakers to an extent, even if a almost everyone would have been speaking some level of French as well. I do wonder what demographics the Atlantic Wall would have on things and if the people relocated from the coast would have just been moved further inland. But yes, what are the statuses of those languages and French in the UK? And did the decades of occupation by the Germans lead to the. Channel Islands being all Norman Speaking, all German, all depopulated of locals... I suppose I am wondering if they are now semi-independent bailiwicks or if they ended up in England or Normandy. Though, as I read up on Operation Spider, it seems the islands might as well become a nature preserve or a massive graveyard.

 

[CalBear]

What is the level of devolution in the United Kingdom and what is the language policy? While A racist France or even De Gauls would have likely kept working at making everyone speak the French of Paris, I imagine the Germans may have supported the Breton, Norman, Picard, and Flemish speakers to an extent, even if a almost everyone would have been speaking some level of French as well. I do wonder what demographics the Atlantic Wall would have on things and if the people relocated from the coast would have just been moved further inland. But yes, what are the statuses of those languages and French in the UK? And did the decades of occupation by the Germans lead to the. Channel Islands being all Norman Speaking, all German, all depopulated of locals... I suppose I am wondering if they are now semi-independent bailiwicks or if they ended up in England or Normandy. Though, as I read up on Operation Spider, it seems the islands might as well become a nature preserve or a massive graveyard.

The WAllies recaptured Guernsey, along with Herm and Sark, during a diversionary attack in hopes of relieving pressure on the Russians. The effort at Jersey failed, at the cost of the better part of British Para Division, HMS Sheffield, and three destroyers, along with several transports chewed up during the effort to rescue the airborne. Jersey actually came out of the War not much worse than IOTL mainly because it was anything but a plum assignment for an up & coming SS officer. The Island was under the command of a KM officer who expected obedience but was not at the same wound up level common in the Waffen SS

 

[EnglishCanuck]

In AANW Beria was killed by his own men leading Molotov to end up as the leader in 1943.

What would have happened if Beria did end up as leader of what was left of the USSR?

Would he have fought on desperately or would he have signed a peace treaty with the Reich like Molotov?

Considering that Stalin apparently described Beria as "our Himmler" I think much worse. He would probably have had a unified and more intact NKVD apparatus around him, better equipped troops and a more coherent "anti-bandit" policy which probably involves mass executions and depopulation not unlike the SS. He's going to be running a much more effective slave state to help the nazis.

 

[Logothétes]

Yeah, I gotta admit that the way USSR totally imploded and capitulated after its military defeat is a bit OOC. Faltering without Uncle Joe holding it together is not unrealistic, I can even see it going through civil wars and balkanizing China-style (though it's far from a given, seeing how L-L can keep flowing just fine and it's not like the Germans can occupy Vladivostok), but you'd expect at least some warlord states and rogue Red Army units fanatically fighting to the bitter end, resulting in a near endless mid-to-low-intensity insurgency along the A-A line that'd bleed the Germans dry.

Instead we get Molotov gov. sitting on its thumbs in Siberia, exhibiting a bizarre near total passivity and willingess yank out its own spine and feed it to the Germans.

 

[Captain Homicide]

Instead we get Molotov gov. sitting on its thumbs in Siberia, exhibiting a bizarre near total passivity and willingess yank out its own spine and feed it to the Germans.

The treaty Molotov signed with the Reich allowed thousands of German troops and inspectors in the rump USSR so anything he could have done to upset the status quo would have been met with harsh reprisals. Molotov knew that if he attempted to pull a fast one him and his family would be executed and he would replaced by a more amiable Nazi puppet. In AANW towards the end of the Hot War the USSR was late once on their monthly reparations and in response Himmler sent bombers to drop nerve gas on the capital as punishment.

Molotov was much more concerned with his own personal survival and the survival of the Communist Party to support any partisan effort on top of the fact that they were being sucked dry of resources by Germany on a regular basis.

It’s easy for us to say it was a bad decision but in the chaotic conditions that existed during the civil war after Stalin’s death it isn’t unrealistic that many Soviet officials would have acknowledged the facts on the ground and realized resistance was futile. Contrary to popular belief they were human beings, not fanatic robots.

Even if the surviving Soviet leadership tried to fight on beyond the Urals the Reich would have had the advantage and been able to inflict much more damage through bombing than the rump USSR could hope to inflict on the Reich. It wouldn’t be the first time in history that leaders of a country agreed to a crippling peace treaty once they lost a war rather than fight on.

resulting in a near endless mid-to-low-intensity insurgency along the A-A line that'd bleed the Germans dry.

CalBear did make clear there was an ongoing insurgency in the USSR that the Reich met with brutality and horror (over 700,000 partisans were killed by the end of the war).

Due to lack of support from the civilian population (which was exterminated and enslaved) the partisans became little more than bandits but still inflicted thousands of casualties on Axis forces. Any Red Army units that stood and fought rather than surrender were wiped out in 1943.

 

[Logothétes]

The treaty Molotov signed with the Reich allowed thousands of German troops and inspectors in the rump USSR so anything he could have done to upset the status quo would have been met with harsh reprisals. Molotov knew that if he attempted to pull a fast one him and his family would be executed and he would replaced by a more amiable Nazi puppet.

Molotov was much more concerned with his own personal survival and the survival of the Communist Party to support any partisan effort on top of the fact that they were being sucked dry of resources by Germany on a regular basis.

Oh I'm aware of all that. It's just that the reason Molotov (or anyone else, really) chose to sign that deal and folks in Russia decided to go along with it never seemed properly explained, to me.

The Wehrmacht (mid-40s Wehrmacht, no less) should've been, by all means, horribly overstretched and unable to mount anything more than bombing runs and glorified raids beyond the A-A line. And if both the OTL Japanese adventure in China and post Brest-Litovsk situation in Russia taught us anything, is that genocidal attitudes and military supremacy are rarely enough to stop a determined resistance, especially when said resistance still has outside help, a pool to draw manpower from and lots of territory to retreat to.

Yes, any sort of large-scale revolt wouldn't be viable within German-controlled areas but there's no reason the Soviets, or post-Soviet warlords, shouldn't be able to hunker down behind the Urals and refuse to surrender/launch nuisance raids. The WAllied aid from Alaska is still coming over.

 

[Captain Homicide]

It's just that the reason Molotov (or anyone else, really) chose to sign that deal and folks in Russia decided to go along with it never seemed properly explained, to me.

Relevant quote from the author concerning the surviving Soviet leadership’s decisions after Stalin’s death:

Then the leaders like Molotov and the rest of the surviving Politburo members would have gotten killed by some factor until someone surrendered. The Red Army had effectively been decapitated and there was no Front level leadership that was worth a damn.

They made the same mistake that the Poles and the Czechs made IOTL. They thought they were fighting a war, not facing extermination. Surrender, get terms, come back in 10 years, and have another go. The initial Nazi terms were tough, but not that ruinous. The Red Army was mainly dismantled, but there was enough left to control the population, which was all the Molotov government cared about. The reparations were high, running double or triple what they had been supplying pre-war under the 1939 and 1940 Commercial Pacts (and without the Reich providing any compensation), but, again, give it a few years and we can try to get it reduced, they don't want to kill the Golden Goose.

250,000 laborers, well, just divert some of the ones that would go to the Gulag (IOTL, there were 450,000 political prisoners in the Gulag, out of 2.4 million total in the Gulag system). They tend to die off anyway. Not that bad, until that 250K has a 50% loss rate in the first half year and has to be replaced, and replaced again, etc. Berlin also won't let you send people who area already in the West, because they have "plans for them to assist in reconstruction". At some point the light came on. By then, the Reich had the Soviets completely over the barrel and Molotov had no choice but to continue to comply, the Reich have a massive Army, the USSR have a couple infantry divisions and some obsolete light tanks to keep the workers under control.

It was pure survival mode after that and wait for the Fascists' attention to wander. Not that the Reich was ever going to let the USSR up off the canvas.

 

[Whiteshore]

Even if the surviving Soviet leadership tried to fight on beyond the Urals the Reich would have had the advantage and been able to inflict much more damage through bombing than the rump USSR could hope to inflict on the Reich.

I mean, the same could arguably be said of the KMT during the worst days of the Second Sino-Japanese War with regards to Japan considering that China's military abilities, to put things mildly, were not very good.