Let us say, that for some reason Sweden manages to win the Battle of Poltava 1709, Peter is captured, humiliated and forced to sign a pleace, perhaps giving Kola and Far Karelia to Sweden as well as to return all captured forts and provinces.
This leaves Sweden as having defeated all members of the coalition against it. I don't see Denmark re-entering the war nor Prussia declaring war in this situation.
What would the long-time effects of a Swedish victory be? I am guessing Peter still modernises Russia, but St Petersburg is built elsewhere. Will he still end up in war against the Ottoman Empire 1710-1711 and will he still be defeated?
The question comes to the Polish King and the Ukrainian Hetmanate under Mazepa - can they survive long-term. How much will Sweden be drained trying to prop these states up? Will this delay the partitions of Poland, or perhaps make Sweden an active part of them (taking Courland and perhaps Lithuania)?
I am guessing that Russia will be delayed, but not steered away from its ascension, and there will be another Swedo-Russian war. Will Sweden and Prussia perhaps be on the same side in the 7 years war, an alliance against Russia?
My personal opintion is that Sweden would quickly lose control over Poland - the marionette would be over-thrown and Swedish attempts to restore him would cost too much. Sweden will cut its losses and see Poland as a lost cause and instead partake in the partition, going for Courland.
Mazepa's state will survive longer, Ottoman pressure is bound to be low, they'll probably appreciate the buffer against the Russians, the Crimean Kahante is really too weak to actively challenge it and Poland-Lithuania is on decline. It will probably be conquered by Russia after 50-70 years of independence and probably fall right before the Khanate.
How will these events affect the Ottomans? Will the Treaty of Nis be butterflied as the Russians are slightly weaker and itching to fight with Sweden? Will Sweden and the Ottomans form an anti-Russian alliance? Relations had usually been good since the 30 years war when both nations had the Habsburgs as enemies and the Swedes often managed to get the Porte to intervene on behalf of crews taken slaves or for ransom by the Barbaresk Pirates.
How long before a new war between Sweden and Russia? OTL, Sweden maintained an oppurtunist policy against Russia for most of the 1700s, but without lost provices to regain, would it be more focused on being able to defend what they had as 1670-1720?
This leaves Sweden as having defeated all members of the coalition against it. I don't see Denmark re-entering the war nor Prussia declaring war in this situation.
What would the long-time effects of a Swedish victory be? I am guessing Peter still modernises Russia, but St Petersburg is built elsewhere. Will he still end up in war against the Ottoman Empire 1710-1711 and will he still be defeated?
The question comes to the Polish King and the Ukrainian Hetmanate under Mazepa - can they survive long-term. How much will Sweden be drained trying to prop these states up? Will this delay the partitions of Poland, or perhaps make Sweden an active part of them (taking Courland and perhaps Lithuania)?
I am guessing that Russia will be delayed, but not steered away from its ascension, and there will be another Swedo-Russian war. Will Sweden and Prussia perhaps be on the same side in the 7 years war, an alliance against Russia?
My personal opintion is that Sweden would quickly lose control over Poland - the marionette would be over-thrown and Swedish attempts to restore him would cost too much. Sweden will cut its losses and see Poland as a lost cause and instead partake in the partition, going for Courland.
Mazepa's state will survive longer, Ottoman pressure is bound to be low, they'll probably appreciate the buffer against the Russians, the Crimean Kahante is really too weak to actively challenge it and Poland-Lithuania is on decline. It will probably be conquered by Russia after 50-70 years of independence and probably fall right before the Khanate.
How will these events affect the Ottomans? Will the Treaty of Nis be butterflied as the Russians are slightly weaker and itching to fight with Sweden? Will Sweden and the Ottomans form an anti-Russian alliance? Relations had usually been good since the 30 years war when both nations had the Habsburgs as enemies and the Swedes often managed to get the Porte to intervene on behalf of crews taken slaves or for ransom by the Barbaresk Pirates.
How long before a new war between Sweden and Russia? OTL, Sweden maintained an oppurtunist policy against Russia for most of the 1700s, but without lost provices to regain, would it be more focused on being able to defend what they had as 1670-1720?