PC: Philip the Good marries Isabella of Lorraine

[Shnurre]

EDIT: after some delibiration I have decided to make this thread Plausibility Check instead of What If as it originally was. Probably the updated describtion fits much better to what I want this thread to be compared to the original one.

Disclaimer 1: the idea of the PoD does not belong to me, although most of its possible consequences described here are my thoughts (and of course I asked for the PoD’s author permission to post it here). Here is a link to original discussion (which I also participate in) for those interested and willing to read in Russian.

Disclaimer 2: I am interested to explore what events will be plausibly altered as a direct consequence of the PoD and thus will prefer not to consider random butterflies. So, while I will be happy to discuss anything, changing the outcome of Civil War in Grand Duchy of Moscow or butterflying away the Fall of Constantinople because Mehmed Fatih is born after PoD will not be extremely productive for the purpose of this PC.


Sources: my main source for the political part is Richard Vaughan’s tetralogy on the dukes of Burgundy. For military content I mostly rely on recent Alexandr Lobanov’s PhD thesis on Anglo-Burgundian Military Cooperation, 1420-1435 (link, I highly recommend this source: while it is limited in scope, it is amazingly detailed), relevant parts from Juliet Barker’s “Conquest. The English Kingdom of France 1417-1450” as well as a few primary sources (mostly for names of smaller places taken on some of campaigns). I also of course use bits and pieces from various other books and papers clarifying some specific moments.
If anyone could recommend something other that can be relevant, I will be grateful.

Maps: Here is a map of IOTL territorial expansion of Philip the Good
Here is an extremely detailed map of France in 1429-1430 (though the military situation on this map is a bit imprecise, but the feudal holdings are shown really well)


Having said this let’s talk about the possible PoD

Philp the Good’s first wife was Michelle of France. She was a good wife, who loved her husband and was loved by his subjects, but she was not particularly healthy and was able to give birth only to one daughter Agnes who died in infancy. IOTL, she died in 1422.
Apparently, Michelle also was reasonably close to her brother, future dauphin Charles. The murder of her father-in-law on Charles orders hit her particularly hard, but of course she had a lot to stress about during earlier years of Armagnac-Burgundian civil war too.
The PoD is that Michelle dies sometime in 1417 e. g. shortly after hearing that her other brother dauphin John died on April 5th 1417 thus making another round of civil war inevitable.

So, Michelle dies in early 1417 and Philip needs another wife. As you may have guessed from the name of the thread, the proposed wife if Isabella of Lorraine. Let’s try to analyze how plausible her marriage to Philip the Good is.

Isabella of Lorraine is the eldest daughter of Charles of Lorraine and is set to inherit the duchy of Lorraine (by late 1410-s it is unlikely the Charles will have a male heir: his wife is in her forties, but is of good enough health). Lorraine of course is a reasonably wealthy duchy, it borders the county of Burgundy and while its acquisition does not as of late 1410s provide a land connection between north and south territories of Burgundy, it is a very important step in that direction (and both Brabant-Limburg and Luxemburg are while not yet Burgundian territories, are reasonably firmly in the Burgundian sphere of influence by late 1410s).
Moreover, Charles of Lorrain himself is a firm Burgundian partisan: in 1408 he made an agreement with John the Fearless to participate in his military campaigns in return for an annual pension, which he faithfully did at least several times during a period of 1408-1415 thus earning himself a reputation of “perfect Burgundian”. IOTL, he seems to have stopped actively participating in the warfare after 1415 and in late 1410s and 1420s he became much friendlier with Dauphinists (as is evidenced by OTL Isabella’s marriage to Rene the Good and by Charles not participation in Lancastrian campaigns in eastern Champagne), but this was presumably because he wanted to save Lorraine for his descendants and thus from being annexed by Burgundians. But marrying his eldest daughter to Philip allows him both to save Lorraine for his grandchildren and to preserve his close ties with Burgundy. So I don’t see a reason why Philip the Good would be a less desirable groom than Rene of Anjou (who in 1410-1420s is only a count of Guise and future duke of Bar, is almost 10 years younger than Isabella and of the family who are firm Armagnacs i. e. exactly the people who headed by Louis of Orleans tried to conquer the duchy of Lorraine from Charles in 1407).

So, we have established that Philip is a desirable groom for Isabella and Charles. Is Isabella a desirable bride for Charles and John though? While the value of Lorraine is described in previous paragraph, the duke of Lorraine’s daughter is a bit of a mesalliance for Philip. After all his first and third wives were princesses and Charles of Lorrain is almost John the Fearless’s vassal. Moreover, during his reign, John was almost completely preoccupied with improving his chances of effectively ruling France and Isabella is simply not the best bride to improve his standing in that regard (e. g. Philip’s IOTL second wife Bonne of Artois probably fits better for this role as she is half-sister of Charles Bourbon).
However specifically in 1417-1418 John is determined to become a master of France by military means (which he of course successfully accomplished IOTL). Thus, securing help of a successful general (who made himself a name participating in many John’s campaigns before) and his troops can become a priority. Presumably Charles was not ready to do it just for money (I strongly doubt that John didn’t offer him money in 1417-1418 like he did many times before) so securing a marriage alliance could be a way to entice him (Philip IOTL had a similar second marriage to Bonne of Artois which served a purely tactical purpose of securing a truce with Charles Bourbon). Of course, if Isabella was not a reasonably wealthy heiress of duchy bordering Burgundian domains, she would not be considered no matter what, but thankfully she is.
To sum up: overall Isabella is not ideal bride for supporting John the Fearless policy for most of his life. However, specifically in 1417-1418 she becomes much more valuable and thus can be chosen as Philip’s second wife if Michelle dies in this period.



What are the most obvious consequences of PoD? The initial purpose of the PoD was to butterfly away Charles the Bold which coupled with the fact that Lorrain is by 1470 Burgundian for half a century completely alters Burgundian Wars (if they happen at all which is uncertain to put it mildly more than 50 years after the PoD) . As a consequence the House of Valois-Burgundy doesn’t become extinct. However of course there are a lot of important consequences much much earlier, which I will talk about below.



First let’s talk about Isabella herself.
First of all, she was extremely fertile. IOTL she gave birth to 10 children (4 of which survived till adulthood) which is even more impressive considering the fact that effectively her martial life with Rene lasted for 11 years: before 1424 Rene was below 15 and unlikely to sire a child, in 1431-1432 and again in 1434-1437 Rene was in Philip the Good’s captivity (he was captured at the battle of Bulgenville in the summer of 1431, was released in 1432 in exchange for his sons, but requested back in 1434 when Philip got furious with Emperor Sigismund’s decision confirming Rene’s possession of Lorrain), in 1435 Isabella went to Naples and was joined by Rene only in 1438, and finally 1440 Isabella left to France and Rene followed her only in 1442, after which Isabella was well over 40.
With Philip the Good Isabella would have at least twice as much time to bear children (including her years from 18 till 24 which, she effectively missed with Rene because he was too young) and of course Philip himself was extremely virile and fathered at least 20 children himself (this are his children we know by name; some sources say he had at least 50 bastards).
So presumably Isabella and Philip’s marriage would be extremely fruitful with up to 10 surviving children which has two important consequences. First one is that the extinction of Valois-Burgundy House becomes much less probable. The second is that Philip himself would be able to employ the marital policy of his father and grandfather (IOTL after he ran out of sisters, he actively used his nieces and other reasonably close female relatives; but of course having plenty daughters of his own is much better for this purpose).

Another important fact about Isabella is that her style of being consort is much closer to Philip’s grandmother's and especially mother's than that of any of his wives IOTL (which is pretty ironic given the fact that she was a bitter rival of Philip IOTL). The difference is most striking with his third wife Isabella of Portugal. Like Philip’s mother Margaret of Bavaria (and to lesser extent Margaret of Flanders), Isabella of Lorraine firmly ruled by herself large territories over extended periods of time (in case of Margaret, she ruled Flanders for several years after 1405 and the Two Burgundies from 1409 till 1424; in case of Isabella she ruled Lorraine and Bar between 1431 and 1435, Naples from 1435 till 1438 and Lorraine an Bar again from 1440 till 1445 and was involved in their government till her death in 1453). Both ladies were efficient administrators, dealt with unruly vassals and were even involved in military matters (Isabella IOTL was even able to raise and lead feudal levy on least 2 occasions: in 1431-1432 and again in 1441 both times against her cousin Antoine de Vaudemont, her cousin and rival claimant to the duchy of Lorraine; Margaret was similarly responsible for an effective defense of Two Burgundies on several accounts during her long reign). So, the blueprint for the role of Isabella in Burgundy already exists and thus the can basically seamlessly inherit the role of the governor of the Two Burgundies and later Lorrain from her mother-in-law, maybe even immediately after the latter's death.


Isabella of Portugal was of course not without talents of her own. She was an intelligent woman, a patron of arts and a skilled diplomat, but unlike Margaret and Isabella (and even Michelle of France for a short period of time) she did not govern on her own.
Ironically it is her most important talent, that of diplomat, that backfired the most IOTL: she played an extremely important role in the conclusion of Treaty of Arras in 1435, which is considered a massive blunder on Burgundy's part by most historians. Philip the Good had great doubts whether to sign a separate peace with Charles VII, thus betraying his alliance with England and Lancastrian France. His advisors were equally split: while there was a powerful pro-reconciliation faction among his council, pro-war party was also quite strong. It was Isabella of Portugal’s diplomatic skill that shifted the balance in favor of making peace with Charles. Isabella received a yearly pension of 2000 pounds for this from the king of France and while I have little doubt that she sincerely believed the peace of Arras was beneficial for her husband, I also doubt that Isabella of Lorraine would be as suspensible to bribes. And even if she does support the reconciliation with Dauphinists, she may lack diplomatic skill to make her opinion as decisive.
So another important possible consequence down the road is the absence of Treaty of Arras.
I also think that there are other factors that reduce the possibility of betraying the alliance with England:
1. A greater animosity of HRE towards Burgundy and thus a less antagonizing policy towards his English allies in 1430s (ITTL Philip swallows yet another HRE member-state; while this acquisition is more legitimate than any of IOTL Philips acquisitions, all his expansion combined may create a stronger backlash than IOTL; and of course Sigismund was extremely hostile to Burgundy for most of his reign and even declared a HRE war in Philip in 1434, but had to back down because of low enthusiasm of HRE member-states)
2. A better course of war with France. I have a specific possible scenario in mind, but before writing about it in detail, I would like to receive feedback about earlier possible major divergencies and PoD itself. To provide you a little spoiler, while butterflying away Joan of Arc can be done in several a reasonably plausible ways, I would prefer to avoid doing it since it would make the situation too wanky for my liking for Burgundians end Lancastrians.

In my next post I would try to enumerate the most obvious possible divergencies in late 1410s-1420s and provide my arguments why I believe they would not alter the general picture all that much.

But before doing it I’d like to hear what you all think about the plausibility of the PoD itself and about other major points mentioned in this post.

 

[kasumigenx]

What about Rene marrying Jacquetta of Holland instead.

 

[Shnurre]

Before talking about specific divergencies that could happen in 1410s-1420s, let’s discuss alternative marriages that follow directly from PoD.

1. Let’s start with the lady first: Isabella of Portugal. IOTL she married Philip really late: she was already 30 when she received Philip’s offer in 1428. While Philip was considering her as his second wife, I doubt her father was waiting for Burgundian offer and refused to consider other proposals. So presumably the alternative marital status of Philip in 1420s doesn’t change much for Isabella: if there was an attractive proposal her father would have taken it IOTL instead of waiting for Philip and since she was still single IOTL in 1428 she would also be ITTL. Thus, Isabella is likely to never marry ITTL and will become a nun. Alternatively, she could probably marry some Iberian noble, but the only one I could think about is infante Peter of Aragon, who IOTL died unmarried. Probably though, if Peter would be suitable, she would have married him IOTL (by 1428 he was 22 already and thus had more than enough time to marry her)

2. The more important one is Rene the Good of Anjou who married Isabella of Lorraine IOTL.
In early to mid-1420s (when he probably should be engaged or married) he is count of Guise, he co-rules duchy of Bar with his grand-uncle (and is set to inherit it). He also is first in line for his brother Louis's many titles, but his brother is young and may still have heirs of his own (he didn’t IOTL and barring random butterflies probably won’t ITTL but there is no way to know this in 1420s). Anjou are of course important Armagnac supporters, Rene’s sister Mary will become dauphin Charles’s wife in 1422 (they were betrothed several years before the PoD, so this marriage will definitely happen ITTL), his younger brother Charles is dauphin’s close childhood friend and most importantly his mother is an extremely influential figure in Dauphinist France in 1410s-1430s (arguably the most influential).
So sum up, Rene is an important and well connected prince of blood, but not quite first-tier. I have a few possible brides for him, but no one fits him perfectly:

a. Joan of Valois, daughter of Charles of Orleans is the same age as Rene (IOTL she married John of Alencon and died without issue). She is an extremely desirable bride: her father is first in line of succession of France (according to Dauphinists of course and until future Louis XI is born; but even after that her father is second in succession), while her mother is a daughter of a king and a widow of a king. Joan is Charles’s only daughter (and is likely to remain such for a long time since Charles is in English captivity since the battle of Agincourt) and is set to inherit at least a decent number of his multiple titles in case of her father’s death without another heir (other titles would probably go to her uncles and/or would be restored to crown). In fact, she is so desirable that perhaps she is a bit out of Rene’s league. While arguably the same could be said about her OTL husband John of Alencon, his titles (duke of Alencon, count of Perche) are more prestigious than what Rene is certain to have in 1420s. Also, unlike Rene who in 1420s is not motivated to fight Burgundians even when they conquered his own county of Guise, Alencon is fighting Lancastrians since the first half of 1420s even if not particularly successfully (IOTL he was captured at battle of Verneuil in 1424, spent 5 years in captivity and had to sell basically all his possessions in order to ransom himself).
Thus marrying Joan to Alencon who lost most of his domains to English attack by the time of the marriage serves an important political message: remain faithful and you will be rewarded (and also provides a guarantee that Alencon would not switch his allegiance to Lancastrians in lieu of restoration of some of his titles however unlikely this possible scenario is).
To sum up, while Joan of Orleans marrying Rene instead of Alencon is possible, her OTL marriage seems to look a bit more plausible from my perspective.


b. John of Alencon himself has a sister Charlotte 4 years younger than Rene (who IOTL died unmarried in 1435). John is an important Armagnac prince of blood (and thus marrying his sister would improve both Rene’s and Angevines in general standing among Dauphinists), moreover in mid to late 1420s Charlotte is John's heir, while he himself is in English captivity (and as Agincourt prisoners demonstrate such a captivity can last for decades).
This possible inheritance is not without a caveat: John’s domains are conquered by Lancastrians (and also confiscated by Lancastrian government which Dauphinists naturally did not recognize) and in case of John’s death without an heir a substantial part of his titles would probably be reverted to the crown. Charlotte would still probably receive some part of his inheritance such a scenario (if we look at the fate of John of Berry’s appanage as a precedent, a likely outcome would be Charlotte inheriting either county of Perche or duchy of Alencon while the other one coupled with smaller titles such as Domfront, Fougeres etc. going to the crown) and even such a conditional inheritance is valuable especially considering that both Alencon and Perche border the block of Angevine lands centered around Anjou and Maine. And if John’s lands were not conquered Charlotte probably would once again would be a top-tier bride a bit out of Rene’s league.

c. Isabella of Brittany is 2 years younger than Rene. IOTL, she married Guy de Laval in 1430s, but Rene is a more high-profile groom and thus if Angevines are interested in improving relationship with John of Brittany it is a better match (and Guy de Laval can in such a scenario marry Isabelle’s sister Catherine who IOTL died after 1444 unmarried). The main blocker for such an arrangement is John’s double-faced policy at this stage of Hundred Years’ War (he switched sides at least 4 times). However, in 1425-1427 he is reconciled with the dauphin and this is probably the most appropriate time to wed Rene and Isabella in terms of age.

d. Bonne, daughter of John of Armagnac who IOTL died unmarried in 1430s. However, her father pledged allegiance to king of Castille in 1425 and remained rather hostile to dauphin until late 1440s. Bonne, who was born in 1416 would not be in time to marry Rene before this event: at best she and Rene can be betrothed and I am not sure this betrothal can survive John Armagnac’s political maneuver.

e. Rene can try to engage Philip’s rivals in the HRE.
I don’t really have a good candidate here. A decent variant would be some close relative of Antoine de Vaudemont (IOTL Philip supported Antoine against Isabella and Rene; ITTL Antoine would still claim the duchy of Lorraine and thus become Philip’s rival). ITTL Antoine would presumably be recognized as a duke of Lorraine by Emperor Sigismund (IOTL he supported Isabella to spite Philip, ITTL he can do the same for another candidate). However, Antoine didn’t have daughters until much later and both his sisters are already married at the time of PoD (his sister Margaret would become widow in 1431, but marrying a widowed second daughter of a count is definitely below Rene’s status however important an ally Antione ITTL is)
Another important adversary of Philip in HRE is Frederick the Empty Pockets of Tyrol (who IOTL had quarrels with Philip over county of Ferrette in Upper Alsase which eventually led to war in 1430-1431). But he, once again, had no daughters that survived childhood. He had a number of nieces by Ernest the Iron though and was a regent after his brother’s death, so perhaps Rene can marry one of them.
Philip had other rivals in HRE, but most of them became active after Philip inherited Brabant and Limburg (i. e. after 1430) and by this time Rene should probably at least be betrothed.

I personally think that either option b or option c are the most plausible, but IMHO none of these seem perfect. So I will be really gratefull for other suggestions (or for comments on the suggestions above)

3. The absence of marriage between Rene the Good and Isabella of Lorraine leads to Henry VI not having OTL bride. IOTL Henry married in mid 1440s, so a lot will be changed by that time ITTL.
If Lancastrian-Burgundian alliance stands, one of Philip and Isabella’s daughters is a nice possible option (so to speak an ITTL shadow of Margaret of Anjou), but there are many other possible variants.
The choice of wife for Henry depends too much on how exactly HYW will play out in 1420s and 1430s, so probably finding a specific bride for him is a bit premature at this point. But it will be interesting to see some options.

What about Rene marrying Jacquetta of Holland instead.

Her betrothal to Antoine of Brabant happened almost immediately after the PoD and she remained married until the end of 1420s (married twice over for most of this time period). She will not be able to do her stunt with second marriage while her husband is alive with Rene while he is still a preteen and thus her marriage to Gloucester probably happens as IOTL. After her marriage to Gloucester is definitevely annulled (which finally happens only in 1428), she will not be able to marry Rene for another reason: she is on her last legs in the war against Philip (in 1428 he laid siege to her last major stronghold Gouda). IOTL as soon as she realized that English will definitely not support her, she had no other option than to sign the Reconciliation of Delft (one of the most important conditions of which that she had to obtain Philips permission to another marriage) and I don't really see what can be changed ITTL
So while Rene would probably not mind marrying Jacqueline, I don’t see much chance for that.


This post was entirely devoted to alternative marriages ITTL. I will try enumerate the other possible divergencies in late 1410s-1420s in my next post.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Hope the responses help

 

[Shnurre]

Hope the responses help

This is a very relevant thread yes, shame I was unable to find it via search (I tried searching "Philip the Good" and "Isabella of Lorraine" but didn't use either in the thread title; my bad)


I am not sure I agree with the arguments in that thread though. As I mentioned in my starting post yes, the marriage with Rene was a way for Charles to ensure to make it more difficult for Burgundians to take Lorraine by force and to make it easier for his direct descendants to continue ruling it. In order to achieve it he had to ally himself (however limited in scope) to the same people who tried to conquer Lorraine from him in 1407 and to betray his personal friend and benefactor (IOTL he was an extremely active and successful partisan of Burgundian party until late 1410s and earn himself a nickname "perfect Burgundian").

If the alternative is between Philip the Good eventually conquering and annexing Lorrain (and leaving Charles’s daughter and grandchildren with nothing) and between Lorraine going to the duke of Bar, yes, his choice is entirely understandable. If the alternative is between his grandchildren being dukes of Bar and Lorraine or dukes of Burgundy and Lorraine (and counts of Burgundy, Artois, Flanders etc.) I don’t see a reason for Charles to pick the first option as the second one is both more prestigious and lucrative for his daughter and also keeps his ties with his friends and comrades in arms.
It is not like IOTL he had an animosity to Burgundy or particularly great relationship with Bar or Anjou (on the contrary he had great relationship with Burgundians and terrible with Armagnacs)

As far as the fact that nobody wants Burgundy to inherit Lorraine it is somewhat true. However, inheriting Lorraine wouldn’t change much for Burgundy in terms of rivalries. Both Dauphinists and Emperor Sigismund are Burgundy’s bitter rivals no matter what (Sigismund has his hands tied with Hussites, but IOTL immediately after he concluded peace, he declared HRE war on Philip) and Lancastrians need Burgundy way too much until the treaty of Arras.
Additionally, it is not like John the Fearless and Charles of Lorraine need anyone’s permission to wed their children. I assume in 1431 (when Charles dies and the inheritance happens) Philip would have a stronger backlash from HRE states than Rene had IOTL, but that is about it in the long-term effects.

EDIT: also the thread linked above is focused on the possibility of Isabella's marriage to Philip (or some other member of House Valois-Burgundy) in mid to late 1420s and even 1430s, which has both drastically different prerequisites to the marriage in 1417-1418 and leads to different outcomes

I invite the participants of the previous discussion to challenge my arguments. @The Professor @Jan Olbracht @Cornelis @jeandebueil @Janprimus @Matthew Metek @Orcot

 

[Janprimus]

I don’t have too much time right now, but if the marriage happens soon enough. Then in true Burgundian fashion the bishop of Chalons-sur-Marne and more importantly duke of Bar can instead be swayed to sell the duchy of Bar (or the right to the succession of the duchy) to the duke of Burgundy and his wife the duchess of Lorraine René of Anjou IIRC only got involved in 1419/1420 so there is a window there).
The house of Burgundy was not averse to marrying heiresses, Philip the Bold has married Margaret of Male (last of the house of Dampierre), heiress to the counties of Flanders, Artois and Nevers and the county palatine of Burgundy.
John the Fearless was married to Margaret of Bavaria-Straubing, potential heiress of the Netherlandic possessions of the house of Bavaria-Straubing (successor of the house of Avesnes), the counties of Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland. Through her, Philip the Good can trace his claim on those.

Isabel of Lorraine, heiress to Lorraine and key to potentially acquire the duchy of Bar, IMHO would not be a misalliance at all. It will also greatly help to bring prince-bishoprics Metz, Toul and Verdun in the Burgundian sphere of influence, like IOTL Liege (Luik), Utrecht and Cambrai.
Also don’t forget, that Philip the Good still hasn’t made his great acquisitions in the Low Countries (the duchies of Lothier, Brabant and Limburg, the counties of Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland etc.) yet in 1417.
So no, Isabel would be a good strategic match, since it brings the duchy of Lorraine.
Besides a house like the house of Bourbon, of royal Capetian descent sure, but not that important yet were also considered (probably as a proxy, but still).

 

[Shnurre]

Thanks for your opinion!

Then in true Burgundian fashion the bishop of Chalons-sur-Marne and more importantly duke of Bar can instead be swayed to sell the duchy of Bar (or the right to the succession of the duchy) to the duke of Burgundy and his wife the duchess of Lorraine.

Do you mind sharing a source on the sale of Bar IOTL (please don't feel offended by me being nitpicky, but this is extremely important for the purpose of the possible consequences)? I have seen the fact mentioned here on ah.com a couple of times, but the literature I have seems to support another version i. e. that Rene was simply the closest relative of Louis of Bar (along with Louis of Anjou of course but supposedly the duke of Bar didn't want his duchy to be managed by an absent duke).
E. g. Margaret Kekewich writes in her The Good King: "Yolande of Aragon’s childless uncle, cardinal Louis, bishop of Châlonssur-Marne, was duke of Bar. The last of his nephews had been killed at Agincourt so the field was clear for Yolande to persuade him to adopt his great-nephew René as his heir. René was already count of Guise, which he had inherited from his father two years previously. It was agreed that the ten-year-old would go and live in Bar where he was made a member of the Order of Fidelity in which forty knights swore to protect him from all dangers.31 In a ceremony on 13 August 1419, the old cardinal formally ceded his duchy and the marquisate of the adjacent lands of Pont-à-Mousson to René. "
However if there is a good source proving that Louis of Bar did indeed sell Bar, this changes the overall situation quite a bit. Philip does defenitely has both the incentive to do it as well as the means (after all, he bought Namur in 1421; presumably the duchy of Bar will be a better purchase). Louis, being a moderate Burgundian supporter wouldn't probably mind too much (that is if in fact he was selling the duchy; if he wanted to leave it to his relatives Philip doesn't work at all) and Bar being firmly Burgundian in 1420s changes the situation quite a bit

Besides a house like the house of Bourbon, of royal Capetian descent sure, but not that important yet were also considered (probably as a proxy, but still).

That is not quite the case. They have inherited Duchy of Auvergne and related titles in 1416 which immediately made House of Bourbon top 4 landholder in France other than king with domains inside the kingdom comparable to that of Dukes of Brittany, Dukes of Burgundy and Dukes of Anjou (and the gap between these 4 and the next one is quite large). Of course, dukes of Bourbon don't have the lands out of kingdom of France unlike Angevins and Burgundians, but still they are really, really important as far as French internal politics go.

The house of Burgundy was not averse to marrying heiresses, Philip the Bold has married Margaret of Male (last of the house of Dampierre), heiress to the counties of Flanders, Artois and Nevers and the county palatine of Burgundy.
John the Fearless was married to Margaret of Bavaria-Straubing, potential heiress of the Netherlandic possessions of the house of Bavaria-Straubing (successor of the house of Avesnes), the counties of Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland. Through her, Philip the Good can trace his claim on those.

Isabel of Lorraine, heiress to Lorraine and key to potentially acquire the duchy of Bar, IMHO would not be a misalliance at all. It will also greatly help to bring prince-bishoprics Metz, Toul and Verdun in the Burgundian sphere of influence, like IOTL Liege (Luik), Utrecht and Cambrai.
Also don’t forget, that Philip the Good still hasn’t made his great acquisitions in the Low Countries (the duchies of Lothier, Brabant and Limburg, the counties of Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland etc.) yet in 1417.
So no, Isabel would be a good strategic match, since it brings the duchy of Lorraine.

Well Isabella is a heiress yes, and yes members of Valois-Burgundy were more than fine marrying a suitable heiresses, but to be fair Isabella is a much poorer heiress than either Margaret of Flandres or even Margaret of Bavaria (Holland that is).
I don't have a good population estimate for duchy of Lorraine, at least not in 1419s borders (that is without Bar and Vaudemont), but I would assume that it should be comparable to the county of Burgundy. The inheritance of Margaret of Flandres brought Philip 5 times more (even if we discount Rethel and Nevers which we really shouldn't), Hainaut, Zeeland and Holland are at least twice as popoulus. In terms of wealth the discrepancy is of course even higher (according to Vaughan's Philip the Good Flandres+Artois gave around 7.5 times more yearly aides than Two Burgundies and Holland+Zeeland+Hainaut gave 5 times the amount; and these are two Burgundies, Lorrain is at best half of that)

Having said that, I don't intend to prove that the marriage between Philip and Isabella is a bad idea, just that it is somewhat of a mesalliance, possible only in specific circumstances (like those of 1417-1418)

 

[Janprimus]

Thanks for your opinion!

Do you mind sharing a source on the sale of Bar IOTL (please don't feel offended by me being nitpicky, but this is extremely important for the purpose of the possible consequences)? I have seen the fact mentioned here on ah.com a couple of times, but the literature I have seems to support another version i. e. that Rene was simply the closest relative of Louis of Bar (along with Louis of Anjou of course but supposedly the duke of Bar didn't want his duchy to be managed by an absent duke).
E. g. Margaret Kekewich writes in her The Good King: "Yolande of Aragon’s childless uncle, cardinal Louis, bishop of Châlonssur-Marne, was duke of Bar. The last of his nephews had been killed at Agincourt so the field was clear for Yolande to persuade him to adopt his great-nephew René as his heir. René was already count of Guise, which he had inherited from his father two years previously. It was agreed that the ten-year-old would go and live in Bar where he was made a member of the Order of Fidelity in which forty knights swore to protect him from all dangers.31 In a ceremony on 13 August 1419, the old cardinal formally ceded his duchy and the marquisate of the adjacent lands of Pont-à-Mousson to René. "
However if there is a good source proving that Louis of Bar did indeed sell Bar, this changes the overall situation quite a bit. Philip does defenitely has both the incentive to do it as well as the means (after all, he bought Namur in 1421; presumably the duchy of Bar will be a better purchase). Louis, being a moderate Burgundian supporter wouldn't probably mind too much (that is if in fact he was selling the duchy; if he wanted to leave it to his relatives Philip doesn't work at all) and Bar being firmly Burgundian in 1420s changes the situation quite a bit

The house of Valois-Burgundy did indeed buy the margraviate of Namur later also the duchy of Luxembourg and eventually most contested the duchy of Gelre (aka Guelders, including the county of Zutphen), in all those cases there were other claimants and distant heirs. Moreover there are several options, buy the duchy directly (unlikely), buy the right of succession more likely; alternatively the duchy of Bar was claimed by duke Adolf of Berg (house Jülich-Berg, he later also became duke of Jülich), but he failed to conquer it (he was invested with the marquisate of Pont-a-Mousson, so Philip could also buy his claim, not to mention the house of Lorraine also had a distant claim. I find some contrasting dates, about the capture of duke Adolf, some it varies from 1417 to 1422, OTOH IOTL duke Louis (also a Prince-Bishop) gave Bar to René of Anjou.
IMHO this narrows that window to 1415 - 1419, also the period in which marrying Isabella of Lorraine is most interesting for duke Philip the Good. Also buying Bar does not exclude Burgundy buying the margraviate of Namur.
Moreover TTL marriage with the heiress of Lorraine, within the right window, is needed to really spark an interest in this region, while Namur already fits in the Burgundian ambitions in the Low Countries.

That is not quite the case. They have inherited Duchy of Auvergne and related titles in 1416 which immediately made House of Bourbon top 4 landholder in France other than king with domains inside the kingdom comparable to that of Dukes of Brittany, Dukes of Burgundy and Dukes of Anjou (and the gap between these 4 and the next one is quite large). Of course, dukes of Bourbon don't have the lands out of kingdom of France unlike Angevins and Burgundians, but still they are really, really important as far as French internal politics go.

It was more a hyperbole, to prove that Valois-Burgundy did not need to marry into royalty as some suggested.

Well Isabella is a heiress yes, and yes members of Valois-Burgundy were more than fine marrying a suitable heiresses, but to be fair Isabella is a much poorer heiress than either Margaret of Flandres or even Margaret of Bavaria (Holland that is).
I don't have a good population estimate for duchy of Lorraine, at least not in 1419s borders (that is without Bar and Vaudemont), but I would assume that it should be comparable to the county of Burgundy. The inheritance of Margaret of Flandres brought Philip 5 times more (even if we discount Rethel and Nevers which we really shouldn't), Hainaut, Zeeland and Holland are at least twice as popoulus. In terms of wealth the discrepancy is of course even higher (according to Vaughan's Philip the Good Flandres+Artois gave around 7.5 times more yearly aides than Two Burgundies and Holland+Zeeland+Hainaut gave 5 times the amount; and these are two Burgundies, Lorrain is at best half of that)

Margaret of Male was an exceptional good catch, not around that often. Margaret of Bavaria-Straubing-Holland/Hainaut wasn't even a guaranteed heiress, that was part of a double marriage, William of Bavaria-Straubing-Holland/Hainaut (her brother) married Margaret of Burgundy (the sister of John the Fearless), in a way they resolved the rivalry between the Dampierres (now Burgundy) and the Avesnes (now Bavaria-Straubing-Holland/Hainaut). The double marriage first was a high price to pay for Philip the Bold, but that was resolved by the ageing childless duchess of Lothier*, Brabant and Limburg (*= highly prestigious, but mostly titular by this point, also the Brabantian chancellery kept using Lower Lotharingia/Lorraine), close to both the dynasties in Flanders and Holland, that Valois-Burgundy would also succeed in Brabant-Limburg.
Even Brabant-Limburg was indirectly, Brabant-Limburg first past to a younger brother of John the Fearless, Anthony, count of Rethel.
Their youngest brother Philip, received the county of Nevers in appanage from John the Fearless (he had been count of Nevers before becoming duke of Burgundy etc.), Anthony would also grant the county of Rethel to Philip, after he succeeded in Brabant-Limburg.
In other words Philip the Good was only duke of Burgundy, count of Flanders and Artois and count palatine of Burgundy by this point, between 1415-1419, far from certain to succeed in the duchies of Brabant & Limburg and the counties of Hainaut, Holland & Zeeland, even when they were within the Burgundian sphere.
Yes, Isabella is no Margaret of Male, but unlike Margaret of Bavaria-Straubing-Holland/Hainaut, she does bring something direct to the table, the succession to the duchy of Lorraine.

I too have wealth and population figures for the Burgundian Lands (from a number of sources), sadly I lack these for Lorraine too. One nitpick, technically the county of Vaudemont, unlike Bar, was still of fief of Lorraine (for a while they had a conection to Bar, then it passed again to a younger son of the duke of Lorraine, the progenitors of the house of Habsburg-Lorraine).

Having said that, I don't intend to prove that the marriage between Philip and Isabella is a bad idea, just that it is somewhat of a mesalliance, possible only in specific circumstances (like those of 1417-1418)

Here I have a a nuance.IMHO there's a difference between Isabella of Lorraine, heiress to the duchy of Lorraine and Isabella, just the daughter of the duke of Lorraine. IMHO Isabella would only be a misalliance, if she does not bring the duchy of Lorraine to the table. That IMHO changes a lot, and then she will be more valuable than a Bourbon (or Angevin) bride, which do not bring such a direct territorial expansion.
Thing is Margaret of Male’s are rare, Isabella of Lorraine, in a strategic region for Burgundy and next door, besides IOTL Philip ended up marrying Bonne of Artois as a second wife, not the best option either. Without the duchy of Lorraine on the table, Isabella wouldn't be that great either, but that gives her an edge.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

EDIT: after some delibiration I have decided to make this thread Plausibility Check instead of What If as it originally was. Probably the updated describtion fits much better to what I want this thread to be compared to the original one.

Disclaimer 1: the idea of the PoD does not belong to me, although most of its possible consequences described here are my thoughts (and of course I asked for the PoD’s author permission to post it here). Here is a link to original discussion (which I also participate in) for those interested and willing to read in Russian.

Disclaimer 2: I am interested to explore what events will be plausibly altered as a direct consequence of the PoD and thus will prefer not to consider random butterflies. So, while I will be happy to discuss anything, changing the outcome of Civil War in Grand Duchy of Moscow or butterflying away the Fall of Constantinople because Mehmed Fatih is born after PoD will not be extremely productive for the purpose of this PC.


Sources: my main source for the political part is Richard Vaughan’s tetralogy on the dukes of Burgundy. For military content I mostly rely on recent Alexandr Lobanov’s PhD thesis on Anglo-Burgundian Military Cooperation, 1420-1435 (link, I highly recommend this source: while it is limited in scope, it is amazingly detailed), relevant parts from Juliet Barker’s “Conquest. The English Kingdom of France 1417-1450” as well as a few primary sources (mostly for names of smaller places taken on some of campaigns). I also of course use bits and pieces from various other books and papers clarifying some specific moments.
If anyone could recommend something other that can be relevant, I will be grateful.

Maps: Here is a map of IOTL territorial expansion of Philip the Good
Here is an extremely detailed map of France in 1429-1430 (though the military situation on this map is a bit imprecise, but the feudal holdings are shown really well)


Having said this let’s talk about the possible PoD

Philp the Good’s first wife was Michelle of France. She was a good wife, who loved her husband and was loved by his subjects, but she was not particularly healthy and was able to give birth only to one daughter Agnes who died in infancy. IOTL, she died in 1422.
Apparently, Michelle also was reasonably close to her brother, future dauphin Charles. The murder of her father-in-law on Charles orders hit her particularly hard, but of course she had a lot to stress about during earlier years of Armagnac-Burgundian civil war too.
The PoD is that Michelle dies sometime in 1417 e. g. shortly after hearing that her other brother dauphin John died on April 5th 1417 thus making another round of civil war inevitable.

So, Michelle dies in early 1417 and Philip needs another wife. As you may have guessed from the name of the thread, the proposed wife if Isabella of Lorraine. Let’s try to analyze how plausible her marriage to Philip the Good is.

Isabella of Lorraine is the eldest daughter of Charles of Lorraine and is set to inherit the duchy of Lorraine (by late 1410-s it is unlikely the Charles will have a male heir: his wife is in her forties, but is of good enough health). Lorraine of course is a reasonably wealthy duchy, it borders the county of Burgundy and while its acquisition does not as of late 1410s provide a land connection between north and south territories of Burgundy, it is a very important step in that direction (and both Brabant-Limburg and Luxemburg are while not yet Burgundian territories, are reasonably firmly in the Burgundian sphere of influence by late 1410s).
Moreover, Charles of Lorrain himself is a firm Burgundian partisan: in 1408 he made an agreement with John the Fearless to participate in his military campaigns in return for an annual pension, which he faithfully did at least several times during a period of 1408-1415 thus earning himself a reputation of “perfect Burgundian”. IOTL, he seems to have stopped actively participating in the warfare after 1415 and in late 1410s and 1420s he became much friendlier with Dauphinists (as is evidenced by OTL Isabella’s marriage to Rene the Good and by Charles not participation in Lancastrian campaigns in eastern Champagne), but this was presumably because he wanted to save Lorraine for his descendants and thus from being annexed by Burgundians. But marrying his eldest daughter to Philip allows him both to save Lorraine for his grandchildren and to preserve his close ties with Burgundy. So I don’t see a reason why Philip the Good would be a less desirable groom than Rene of Anjou (who in 1410-1420s is only a count of Guise and future duke of Bar, is almost 10 years younger than Isabella and of the family who are firm Armagnacs i. e. exactly the people who headed by Louis of Orleans tried to conquer the duchy of Lorraine from Charles in 1407).

So, we have established that Philip is a desirable groom for Isabella and Charles. Is Isabella a desirable bride for Charles and John though? While the value of Lorraine is described in previous paragraph, the duke of Lorraine’s daughter is a bit of a mesalliance for Philip. After all his first and third wives were princesses and Charles of Lorrain is almost John the Fearless’s vassal. Moreover, during his reign, John was almost completely preoccupied with improving his chances of effectively ruling France and Isabella is simply not the best bride to improve his standing in that regard (e. g. Philip’s IOTL second wife Bonne of Artois probably fits better for this role as she is half-sister of Charles Bourbon).
However specifically in 1417-1418 John is determined to become a master of France by military means (which he of course successfully accomplished IOTL). Thus, securing help of a successful general (who made himself a name participating in many John’s campaigns before) and his troops can become a priority. Presumably Charles was not ready to do it just for money (I strongly doubt that John didn’t offer him money in 1417-1418 like he did many times before) so securing a marriage alliance could be a way to entice him (Philip IOTL had a similar second marriage to Bonne of Artois which served a purely tactical purpose of securing a truce with Charles Bourbon). Of course, if Isabella was not a reasonably wealthy heiress of duchy bordering Burgundian domains, she would not be considered no matter what, but thankfully she is.
To sum up: overall Isabella is not ideal bride for supporting John the Fearless policy for most of his life. However, specifically in 1417-1418 she becomes much more valuable and thus can be chosen as Philip’s second wife if Michelle dies in this period.



What are the most obvious consequences of PoD? The initial purpose of the PoD was to butterfly away Charles the Bold which coupled with the fact that Lorrain is by 1470 Burgundian for half a century completely alters Burgundian Wars (if they happen at all which is uncertain to put it mildly more than 50 years after the PoD) . As a consequence the House of Valois-Burgundy doesn’t become extinct. However of course there are a lot of important consequences much much earlier, which I will talk about below.



First let’s talk about Isabella herself.
First of all, she was extremely fertile. IOTL she gave birth to 10 children (4 of which survived till adulthood) which is even more impressive considering the fact that effectively her martial life with Rene lasted for 11 years: before 1424 Rene was below 15 and unlikely to sire a child, in 1431-1432 and again in 1434-1437 Rene was in Philip the Good’s captivity (he was captured at the battle of Bulgenville in the summer of 1431, was released in 1432 in exchange for his sons, but requested back in 1434 when Philip got furious with Emperor Sigismund’s decision confirming Rene’s possession of Lorrain), in 1435 Isabella went to Naples and was joined by Rene only in 1438, and finally 1440 Isabella left to France and Rene followed her only in 1442, after which Isabella was well over 40.
With Philip the Good Isabella would have at least twice as much time to bear children (including her years from 18 till 24 which, she effectively missed with Rene because he was too young) and of course Philip himself was extremely virile and fathered at least 20 children himself (this are his children we know by name; some sources say he had at least 50 bastards).
So presumably Isabella and Philip’s marriage would be extremely fruitful with up to 10 surviving children which has two important consequences. First one is that the extinction of Valois-Burgundy House becomes much less probable. The second is that Philip himself would be able to employ the marital policy of his father and grandfather (IOTL after he ran out of sisters, he actively used his nieces and other reasonably close female relatives; but of course having plenty daughters of his own is much better for this purpose).

Another important fact about Isabella is that her style of being consort is much closer to Philip’s grandmother's and especially mother's than that of any of his wives IOTL (which is pretty ironic given the fact that she was a bitter rival of Philip IOTL). The difference is most striking with his third wife Isabella of Portugal. Like Philip’s mother Margaret of Bavaria (and to lesser extent Margaret of Flanders), Isabella of Lorraine firmly ruled by herself large territories over extended periods of time (in case of Margaret, she ruled Flanders for several years after 1405 and the Two Burgundies from 1409 till 1424; in case of Isabella she ruled Lorraine and Bar between 1431 and 1435, Naples from 1435 till 1438 and Lorraine an Bar again from 1440 till 1445 and was involved in their government till her death in 1453). Both ladies were efficient administrators, dealt with unruly vassals and were even involved in military matters (Isabella IOTL was even able to raise and lead feudal levy on least 2 occasions: in 1431-1432 and again in 1441 both times against her cousin Antoine de Vaudemont, her cousin and rival claimant to the duchy of Lorraine; Margaret was similarly responsible for an effective defense of Two Burgundies on several accounts during her long reign). So, the blueprint for the role of Isabella in Burgundy already exists and thus the can basically seamlessly inherit the role of the governor of the Two Burgundies and later Lorrain from her mother-in-law, maybe even immediately after the latter's death.


Isabella of Portugal was of course not without talents of her own. She was an intelligent woman, a patron of arts and a skilled diplomat, but unlike Margaret and Isabella (and even Michelle of France for a short period of time) she did not govern on her own.
Ironically it is her most important talent, that of diplomat, that backfired the most IOTL: she played an extremely important role in the conclusion of Treaty of Arras in 1435, which is considered a massive blunder on Burgundy's part by most historians. Philip the Good had great doubts whether to sign a separate peace with Charles VII, thus betraying his alliance with England and Lancastrian France. His advisors were equally split: while there was a powerful pro-reconciliation faction among his council, pro-war party was also quite strong. It was Isabella of Portugal’s diplomatic skill that shifted the balance in favor of making peace with Charles. Isabella received a yearly pension of 2000 pounds for this from the king of France and while I have little doubt that she sincerely believed the peace of Arras was beneficial for her husband, I also doubt that Isabella of Lorraine would be as suspensible to bribes. And even if she does support the reconciliation with Dauphinists, she may lack diplomatic skill to make her opinion as decisive.
So another important possible consequence down the road is the absence of Treaty of Arras.
I also think that there are other factors that reduce the possibility of betraying the alliance with England:
1. A greater animosity of HRE towards Burgundy and thus a less antagonizing policy towards his English allies in 1430s (ITTL Philip swallows yet another HRE member-state; while this acquisition is more legitimate than any of IOTL Philips acquisitions, all his expansion combined may create a stronger backlash than IOTL; and of course Sigismund was extremely hostile to Burgundy for most of his reign and even declared a HRE war in Philip in 1434, but had to back down because of low enthusiasm of HRE member-states)
2. A better course of war with France. I have a specific possible scenario in mind, but before writing about it in detail, I would like to receive feedback about earlier possible major divergencies and PoD itself. To provide you a little spoiler, while butterflying away Joan of Arc can be done in several a reasonably plausible ways, I would prefer to avoid doing it since it would make the situation too wanky for my liking for Burgundians end Lancastrians.

In my next post I would try to enumerate the most obvious possible divergencies in late 1410s-1420s and provide my arguments why I believe they would not alter the general picture all that much.

But before doing it I’d like to hear what you all think about the plausibility of the PoD itself and about other major points mentioned in this post.

This marriage would certainly help Philip politically and personally.

 

[Shnurre]

The house of Valois-Burgundy did indeed buy the margraviate of Namur later also the duchy of Luxembourg and eventually most contested the duchy of Gelre (aka Guelders, including the county of Zutphen), in all those cases there were other claimants and distant heirs. Moreover there are several options, buy the duchy directly (unlikely), buy the right of succession more likely; alternatively the duchy of Bar was claimed by duke Adolf of Berg (house Jülich-Berg, he later also became duke of Jülich), but he failed to conquer it (he was invested with the marquisate of Pont-a-Mousson, so Philip could also buy his claim, not to mention the house of Lorraine also had a distant claim. I find some contrasting dates, about the capture of duke Adolf, some it varies from 1417 to 1422, OTOH IOTL duke Louis (also a Prince-Bishop) gave Bar to René of Anjou.
IMHO this narrows that window to 1415 - 1419, also the period in which marrying Isabella of Lorraine is most interesting for duke Philip the Good. Also buying Bar does not exclude Burgundy buying the margraviate of Namur.
Moreover TTL marriage with the heiress of Lorraine, within the right window, is needed to really spark an interest in this region, while Namur already fits in the Burgundian ambitions in the Low Countries.

Did I get you right that there is no evidence that Louis of Bar has IOTL sold his inheritance in Bar to Angevins, but you believe that he could potentially sell it to Burgundians ITTL?
I have a slightly different spin on it:

1. Presumably in 1417-1419 Burgundians have their attention and resources focused on establishing and maintaining their power in Paris (and France in general) and cannot really allow themselves to be distracted from it. Burgundians may have discussions with Louis about selling his claim but they cannot really pressure him: he is a Burgundian party supporter and forcing him to give up his inheritance to John/Philip instead of his relative is not the best move politically (IOTL John did employ heavy-handed tactics to take counties of Macon, Tonnerre and Boulogne but in these cases he acted either against royal domain or against his own vassals who became Armagnac supporters; Louis de Bar is neither Burgundy’s vassal nor Armagnac )

2. In 1419 Louis of Bar finally decides to name Rene his heir. IOTL the ceremony happened in August 1419, less than a month before the assassination of John the Fearless. ITTL this may happen on schedule (and in this case Burgundians will have no time to react before the assassination even if they would like to) or to be a bit delayed (if Louis of Bar is less motivated to name Rene his heir without the perspective of inheriting Lorraine). I think though that the death of John the Fearless should be the final straw for the Louis even if he would have more doubts than IOTL.
Philip might wish to punish Louis, but the duke of Burgundy has a lot on his plate and it is not the smartest tactics to antagonize a man who is neutral in war and may still join Burgundians (IOTL Louis has recognized the treaty of Troyes in 1428 and even participated in that year’s campaign in Eastern Champagne)

3. Duke Adolf of Berg who has a claim to Bar through his wife (younger sister of Louis) tries to take Bar by force as IOTL. IOTL he was captured in 1422 and as a part of ransom he had to renounce his rights to Bar. ITTL however Louis and Rene don’t have Lorraine on their side. While I still don’t believe in Adolf’s victory, his defeat would not be nearly as crushing and he might not be captured.

4. In 1423 a first cousin once removed of Adolf, Reinald of Julich and Guelders dies. Julich and Guelders are much closer to Bar and naturally would be a priority for Adolf. He has to fight Arnold of Egmond for these duchies who is supported by Philip the Good. As per OTL Adolf manages to get Julich, but not Guelders.

5. In 1429 Rene and Louis switch to Dauphinists and in 1430 Rene participates in Armagnac campaigns in Champagne and Duchy of Burgundy. Louis also dies in 1430 so all the reasons to limit Burgundian activity towards Bar is gone.

6. IOTL in 1431 Adolf has signed a treaty where he promised to support Philip’s acquisition of Luxemburg (he and Philip also promised each other mutual defense and security). ITTL Adolf may receive a larger sum of money but also agree to sell his son’s rights to Bar (which he has no realistic way of enforcing given the prominence of Rene in Champagne and Dauphinist France in general), but probably Philip doesn’t need this to claim Bar (see below).
Philip also has another claimant to Bar under his sway: Jeanne of Bar (countess of Soisson, Marle etc. etc.) who is a stepdaughter of John Luxemburg, the most important Philip’s general and a bride of John’s nephew and heir Louis, son of count of Saint-Pol and Brienne (and thus also Philip’s vassal). Jeanne’s claim is much stronger than Adolf’s as she is a daughter of the eldest son of the eldest son of duke of Bar and her father has agreed to cede his claim to Bar only with a clause that in case both his uncles die without male issue (which is exactly what happened) he would get his claim back.
IOTL John of Luxemburg has conquered from Rene the county of Guise but was unable to conquer Bar and in 1433 made a deal with Rene in which Jeanne ceded her claim to Bar in exchange for Guise.
ITTL Philip can buy the rights to Bar from Jeanne (i. e. John). Maybe as part of the deal John’s own county of Ligny can be expanded to include larger part of French Bar (and organize the conquest of this territory), but the title of duke should go to Philip so that Jeanne and her husband Louis can still be Philip’s vassals.
Thus in 1430-1431 Philip has an opportunity to buy the rights to Bar from two sides. He probably only needs Jeanne since her claim stronger (and in the end of 1431 the rights of Adolf to Bar expire since his only son by Yolande of Bar dies without heir)

What do you think about this consequence of events? Does it look plausible or do you still think John the Fearless or Philip will try to push their claim to Bar earlier?

In other words Philip the Good was only duke of Burgundy, count of Flanders and Artois and count palatine of Burgundy by this point, between 1415-1419, far from certain to succeed in the duchies of Brabant & Limburg and the counties of Hainaut, Holland & Zeeland, even when they were within the Burgundian sphere.

A small nitpic: of course Philip had also a bunch of smaller titles including Mechelen (Malines) and Salins. But your main point stands

Here I have a a nuance.IMHO there's a difference between Isabella of Lorraine, heiress to the duchy of Lorraine and Isabella, just the daughter of the duke of Lorraine. IMHO Isabella would only be a misalliance, if she does not bring the duchy of Lorraine to the table. That IMHO changes a lot a would, and then she will be more valuable than a Bourbon (or Angevin) bride, which do not bring such a direct territorial expansion.
Thing is Margaret of Male are rare, Isabella of Lorraine, in a strategic region for Burgundy and next door, besides IOTL Phliop ended up marrying Bonne of Artois as a second wife, not the best option either. Without the duchy of Lorraine on the table, Isabella wouldn't be that great either, but that gives her an edge.

I stand corrected as probably mesalliance is not the most fortunate wording.
What I meant is that for most of John's life Isabella though she is a top-tier bride (as a direct heiress of a reasonably large and prestigious duchy) is not the best choice to advance John’s main agenda (i. e. establish political dominance over France). In 1417-1418 though she will both bring Burgundians an adjacent duchy, but will also serve well to further John’s goals at this juncture (i. e. take Paris by military means).
Thus while e. g. in 1416 or 1419 John may have preferred another bride for Philip (he might still have preferred Isabella but at least there are solid arguments for alternatives), in 1417-1418 she seems optimal both tactically (i. e. getting John what he needs now) and strategically (securing Lorrain for Burgundy).
I don’t think there is much point in debating whether John would have preferred some other bride for his son if he wasn’t resolved to take Paris by force in 1417-1418, if we both agree that at least under specific circumstances Isabella seems a pretty ideal bride for Philip.

 

[Shnurre]

2. The more important one is Rene the Good of Anjou who married Isabella of Lorraine IOTL.
In early to mid-1420s (when he probably should be engaged or married) he is count of Guise, he co-rules duchy of Bar with his grand-uncle (and is set to inherit it). He also is first in line for his brother Louis's many titles, but his brother is young and may still have heirs of his own (he didn’t IOTL and barring random butterflies probably won’t ITTL but there is no way to know this in 1420s). Anjou are of course important Armagnac supporters, Rene’s sister Mary will become dauphin Charles’s wife in 1422 (they were betrothed several years before the PoD, so this marriage will definitely happen ITTL), his younger brother Charles is dauphin’s close childhood friend and most importantly his mother is an extremely influential figure in Dauphinist France in 1410s-1430s (arguably the most influential).
So sum up, Rene is an important and well connected prince of blood, but not quite first-tier. I have a few possible brides for him, but no one fits him perfectly:

a. Joan of Valois, daughter of Charles of Orleans is the same age as Rene (IOTL she married John of Alencon and died without issue). She is an extremely desirable bride: her father is first in line of succession of France (according to Dauphinists of course and until future Louis XI is born; but even after that her father is second in succession), while her mother is a daughter of a king and a widow of a king. Joan is Charles’s only daughter (and is likely to remain such for a long time since Charles is in English captivity since the battle of Agincourt) and is set to inherit at least a decent number of his multiple titles in case of her father’s death without another heir (other titles would probably go to her uncles and/or would be restored to crown). In fact, she is so desirable that perhaps she is a bit out of Rene’s league. While arguably the same could be said about her OTL husband John of Alencon, his titles (duke of Alencon, count of Perche) are more prestigious than what Rene is certain to have in 1420s. Also, unlike Rene who in 1420s is not motivated to fight Burgundians even when they conquered his own county of Guise, Alencon is fighting Lancastrians since the first half of 1420s even if not particularly successfully (IOTL he was captured at battle of Verneuil in 1424, spent 5 years in captivity and had to sell basically all his possessions in order to ransom himself).
Thus marrying Joan to Alencon who lost most of his domains to English attack by the time of the marriage serves an important political message: remain faithful and you will be rewarded (and also provides a guarantee that Alencon would not switch his allegiance to Lancastrians in lieu of restoration of some of his titles however unlikely this possible scenario is).
To sum up, while Joan of Orleans marrying Rene instead of Alencon is possible, her OTL marriage seems to look a bit more plausible from my perspective.


b. John of Alencon himself has a sister Charlotte 4 years younger than Rene (who IOTL died unmarried in 1435). John is an important Armagnac prince of blood (and thus marrying his sister would improve both Rene’s and Angevines in general standing among Dauphinists), moreover in mid to late 1420s Charlotte is John's heir, while he himself is in English captivity (and as Agincourt prisoners demonstrate such a captivity can last for decades).
This possible inheritance is not without a caveat: John’s domains are conquered by Lancastrians (and also confiscated by Lancastrian government which Dauphinists naturally did not recognize) and in case of John’s death without an heir a substantial part of his titles would probably be reverted to the crown. Charlotte would still probably receive some part of his inheritance such a scenario (if we look at the fate of John of Berry’s appanage as a precedent, a likely outcome would be Charlotte inheriting either county of Perche or duchy of Alencon while the other one coupled with smaller titles such as Domfront, Fougeres etc. going to the crown) and even such a conditional inheritance is valuable especially considering that both Alencon and Perche border the block of Angevine lands centered around Anjou and Maine. And if John’s lands were not conquered Charlotte probably would once again would be a top-tier bride a bit out of Rene’s league.

c. Isabella of Brittany is 2 years younger than Rene. IOTL, she married Guy de Laval in 1430s, but Rene is a more high-profile groom and thus if Angevines are interested in improving relationship with John of Brittany it is a better match (and Guy de Laval can in such a scenario marry Isabelle’s sister Catherine who IOTL died after 1444 unmarried). The main blocker for such an arrangement is John’s double-faced policy at this stage of Hundred Years’ War (he switched sides at least 4 times). However, in 1425-1427 he is reconciled with the dauphin and this is probably the most appropriate time to wed Rene and Isabella in terms of age.

d. Bonne, daughter of John of Armagnac who IOTL died unmarried in 1430s. However, her father pledged allegiance to king of Castille in 1425 and remained rather hostile to dauphin until late 1440s. Bonne, who was born in 1416 would not be in time to marry Rene before this event: at best she and Rene can be betrothed and I am not sure this betrothal can survive John Armagnac’s political maneuver.

e. Rene can try to engage Philip’s rivals in the HRE.
I don’t really have a good candidate here. A decent variant would be some close relative of Antoine de Vaudemont (IOTL Philip supported Antoine against Isabella and Rene; ITTL Antoine would still claim the duchy of Lorraine and thus become Philip’s rival). ITTL Antoine would presumably be recognized as a duke of Lorraine by Emperor Sigismund (IOTL he supported Isabella to spite Philip, ITTL he can do the same for another candidate). However, Antoine didn’t have daughters until much later and both his sisters are already married at the time of PoD (his sister Margaret would become widow in 1431, but marrying a widowed second daughter of a count is definitely below Rene’s status however important an ally Antione ITTL is)
Another important adversary of Philip in HRE is Frederick the Empty Pockets of Tyrol (who IOTL had quarrels with Philip over county of Ferrette in Upper Alsase which eventually led to war in 1430-1431). But he, once again, had no daughters that survived childhood. He had a number of nieces by Ernest the Iron though and was a regent after his brother’s death, so perhaps Rene can marry one of them.
Philip had other rivals in HRE, but most of them became active after Philip inherited Brabant and Limburg (i. e. after 1430) and by this time Rene should probably at least be betrothed.

I personally think that either option b or option c are the most plausible, but IMHO none of these seem perfect. So I will be really gratefull for other suggestions (or for comments on the suggestions above)

Apparently, Isabella of Brittany (option c in my list) was engaged to Rene's elder brother Louis over an extended period of time until 1430 when the engagement was broken on Charles VII and his favourite (and main Angevine adversary among Dauphinists) Georges de la Trémoille's insistence, so she could marry Guy de Laval. This move on Charles’s part although brought Brittany a bit closer to him, strained the relationship with Angevins quite a bit (Yolande of Aragon was reportedly absolutely furious).

I don’t see the reason why it all could turn up differently ITTL and maybe even try to explore the more permanent split between Angevines and Charles ITTL (especially considering the fact that Arthur de Richemont was both close to Angevines and happily married to Philip’s sister; IOTL during the split Arthur even participated in siege of Pouance in 1432 with his brother and in alliance with English).

But probably ITTL Philip will in 1430s try to grab Bar (see our discussion with @Janprimus above) suggested which should prevent the Angevin-Burgundian alliance from emerging (ITTL Philip had every chance to be magnanimous to Rene after he was captured, but preferred to squeeze every franc from his ransom). And of course, even if Philip for whatever reason is less greedy ITTL and if Burgundy has better relationship with Angevins and Charles VII has worse, I don’t see Angevins fully going over to Lancastrians: Mary of Anjou is still Charles VII’s wife, Charles of Anjou is his childhood friend, Yolande although pissed off is still really important figure at his court and above all Bedford is invested with Anjou and Maine and unlikely to relinquish this claim.

This means that Isabella is definitely not a possible bride for Rene and thus from my perspective Charlotte of Alencon (option b from my list) seems like a clear favorite.

What do you guys think? @isabella , @Valena , @Kellan Sullivan, @Janprimus (sorry if forgot to tag someone). Would also be extremely grateful if you had any comments not related to this specific question.

 

[Janprimus]

Did I get you right that there is no evidence that Louis of Bar has IOTL sold his inheritance in Bar to Angevins, but you believe that he could potentially sell it to Burgundians ITTL?

René of Anjou was IIRC his grand-nephew, but as an ordained bishop, Louis of Bar was pressured to release the rule of the duchy of Bar to someone else.IOTL his niece convinced him to make her son René his heir, so IMHO Burgundy has a change.

I have a slightly different spin on it:

1. Presumably in 1417-1419 Burgundians have their attention and resources focused on establishing and maintaining their power in Paris (and France in general) and cannot really allow themselves to be distracted from it. Burgundians may have discussions with Louis about selling his claim but they cannot really pressure him: he is a Burgundian party supporter and forcing him to give up his inheritance to John/Philip instead of his relative is not the best move politically (IOTL John did employ heavy-handed tactics to take counties of Macon, Tonnerre and Boulogne but in these cases he acted either against royal domain or against his own vassals who became Armagnac supporters; Louis de Bar is neither Burgundy’s vassal nor Armagnac )

IMHO Burgundy could definitely make an offer, during the process, when the niece of Louis, was still convincing her uncle.

2. In 1419 Louis of Bar finally decides to name Rene his heir. IOTL the ceremony happened in August 1419, less than a month before the assassination of John the Fearless. ITTL this may happen on schedule (and in this case Burgundians will have no time to react before the assassination even if they would like to) or to be a bit delayed (if Louis of Bar is less motivated to name Rene his heir without the perspective of inheriting Lorraine). I think though that the death of John the Fearless should be the final straw for the Louis even if he would have more doubts than IOTL.
Philip might wish to punish Louis, but the duke of Burgundy has a lot on his plate and it is not the smartest tactics to antagonize a man who is neutral in war and may still join Burgundians (IOTL Louis has recognized the treaty of Troyes in 1428 and even participated in that year’s campaign in Eastern Champagne)

Depends on the date of TTL marriage between Philip and Isabella , this could be earlier than the assassination, and thus any potential sale of Bar.

3. Duke Adolf of Berg who has a claim to Bar through his wife (younger sister of Louis) tries to take Bar by force as IOTL. IOTL he was captured in 1422 and as a part of ransom he had to renounce his rights to Bar. ITTL however Louis and Rene don’t have Lorraine on their side. While I still don’t believe in Adolf’s victory, his defeat would not be nearly as crushing and he might not be captured.

I agree.

4. In 1423 a first cousin once removed of Adolf, Reinald of Julich and Guelders dies. Julich and Guelders are much closer to Bar and naturally would be a priority for Adolf. He has to fight Arnold of Egmond for these duchies who is supported by Philip the Good. As per OTL Adolf manages to get Julich, but not Guelders.

Deep in their heart Burgundy wasn't really supporting the Van Egmonds, they wanted the duchy of Gelre (and county of Zutphen) for themselves. The duchy of Jülich/Gulik would have surrounded the imperial Imperial Town of Aachen, but more importantly Jülich was the birthright of Adolf.

5. In 1429 Rene and Louis switch to Dauphinists and in 1430 Rene participates in Armagnac campaigns in Champagne and Duchy of Burgundy. Louis also dies in 1430 so all the reasons to limit Burgundian activity towards Bar is gone.

I agree.

6. IOTL in 1431 Adolf has signed a treaty where he promised to support Philip’s acquisition of Luxemburg (he and Philip also promised each other mutual defense and security). ITTL Adolf may receive a larger sum of money but also agree to sell his son’s rights to Bar (which he has no realistic way of enforcing given the prominence of Rene in Champagne and Dauphinist France in general), but probably Philip doesn’t need this to claim Bar (see below).

I again agree.

Philip also has another claimant to Bar under his sway: Jeanne of Bar (countess of Soisson, Marle etc. etc.) who is a stepdaughter of John Luxemburg, the most important Philip’s general and a bride of John’s nephew and heir Louis, son of count of Saint-Pol and Brienne (and thus also Philip’s vassal). Jeanne’s claim is much stronger than Adolf’s as she is a daughter of the eldest son of the eldest son of duke of Bar and her father has agreed to cede his claim to Bar only with a clause that in case both his uncles die without male issue (which is exactly what happened) he would get his claim back.
IOTL John of Luxemburg has conquered from Rene the county of Guise but was unable to conquer Bar and in 1433 made a deal with Rene in which Jeanne ceded her claim to Bar in exchange for Guise.

ITTL it might not be unlikely that Jeanne may keep Guise now as a compensation for Burgundy-Lorraine keeping Bar.

ITTL Philip can buy the rights to Bar from Jeanne (i. e. John). Maybe as part of the deal John’s own county of Ligny can be expanded to include larger part of French Bar (and organize the conquest of this territory), but the title of duke should go to Philip so that Jeanne and her husband Louis can still be Philip’s vassals.
Thus in 1430-1431 Philip has an opportunity to buy the rights to Bar from two sides. He probably only needs Jeanne since her claim stronger (and in the end of 1431 the rights of Adolf to Bar expire since his only son by Yolande of Bar dies without heir)

I wouldn't expand Ligny directly, but give the count of Ligny also a or some additional fiefs in Bar, if needed.

What do you think about this consequence of events? Does it look plausible or do you still think John the Fearless or Philip will try to push their claim to Bar earlier?

IMHO there are two windows an early one and a late one, as you described. I'm very grateful you elaborated on the matter.

A small nitpic: of course Philip had also a bunch of smaller titles including Mechelen (Malines) and Salins. But your main point stands

As a native of the Burgundian Netherlands I plea guilty to oversimplification, but I stand by the remark that it still is a smaller Valois-Burgundy.

I stand corrected as probably mesalliance is not the most fortunate wording.
What I meant is that for most of John's life Isabella though she is a top-tier bride (as a direct heiress of a reasonably large and prestigious duchy) is not the best choice to advance John’s main agenda (i. e. establish political dominance over France). In 1417-1418 though she will both bring Burgundians an adjacent duchy, but will also serve well to further John’s goals at this juncture (i. e. take Paris by military means).
Thus while e. g. in 1416 or 1419 John may have preferred another bride for Philip (he might still have preferred Isabella but at least there are solid arguments for alternatives), in 1417-1418 she seems optimal both tactically (i. e. getting John what he needs now) and strategically (securing Lorrain for Burgundy).

Well John the Fearless also had a couple of daughters, which can and will be used instead, either by him or their brother Philip. IMHO at least one IOTL English match will be axed.

I don’t think there is much point in debating whether John would have preferred some other bride for his son if he wasn’t resolved to take Paris by force in 1417-1418, if we both agree that at least under specific circumstances Isabella seems a pretty ideal bride for Philip.

I agree.

BTW sorry for the late response, I had some busy days.

 

[Valena]

Well John the Fearless also had a couple of daughters, which can and will be used instead, either by him or their brother Philip. IMHO at least one IOTL English match will be axed.

You mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_of_Burgundy (cause she's the only one to marry to England from the list)? In 1418 she's 14 years old, though not too young for dynastic marriage (nobody demands a consummation outright).

 

[Janprimus]

You mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_of_Burgundy (cause she's the only one to marry to England from the list)? In 1418 she's 14 years old, though not too young for dynastic marriage (nobody demands a consummation outright).

The second husband of Margaret of Burgundy was Richard of Richemont, earl of Richmond, later duke of Brittany and count of Montfort, though after reading up on him, he seemed to have forfeited the honour of Richmond, after he joined the French side. So I have mistaken that for an extra English match.
Still with Philip the Good married to Isabel of Lorraine ITTL, this will have effect on the marriages of his sisters, which will have to make up for a bit for relative misalliance of Philip ITTL.
IOTL Marie of Burgundy was married to duke Adolf of Cleves; Margaret of Burgundy was first married to Dauphin Louis of Valois (who died in 1415, she only remarried in 1423), then the mentioned Richard of Richemont; Anne of Burgundy was married to John of Lancaster, duke of Bedford; and Agnes of Burgundy married duke Charles I of Bourbon.
This might mean ITTL Burgundy might be looking for a more advantageous second husband for Margaret of Burgundy.

 

[Valena]

This might mean ITTL Burgundy might be looking for a more advantageous second husband for Margaret of Burgundy.

So she may be on the list?

 

[Janprimus]

So she may be on the list?

IMHO she, Margaret, seems to be the most obvious one to look for a better match ITTL. Cleves, Bedford (as a proxy for England) and Bourbon aren't too bad as marriage alliances. The earldom of Richmond not so much, especially since Richard of Richemont only became duke of Brittany after the OTL death of Margaret.

 

[Shnurre]

IMHO there are two windows an early one and a late one, as you described. I'm very grateful you elaborated on the matter.

Thank you very much for your response.

René of Anjou was IIRC his grand-nephew, but as an ordained bishop, Louis of Bar was pressured to release the rule of the duchy of Bar to someone else.IOTL his niece convinced him to make her son René his heir, so IMHO Burgundy has a change.

IMHO Burgundy could definitely make an offer, during the process, when the niece of Louis, was still convincing her uncle.

Yes, I agree that there are two windows of opportunities for acquisition and I do think John and Philip would probably try to offer to buy out Bar from Louis in 1417-1419. However I don't see many reasons for Louis to accept this offer other than his general alignment closer to Burgundians than to Armagnacs (and perhaps also his desire for ending rivalry with Lorraine) and I don't think John or Philip can realistically pressure Louis.
I can see Louis choosing one of his other close relatives (i. e. either Adolf who is married to Louis younger sister or Jeanne de Bar who is daughter of his eldest brother’s son as opposed to Rene who is a son of Louis's eldest sister's daughter), but probably not someone who has no real connection to Louis.

So I personally think that the later opportunity (via buying of Jeanne with money and or land grants) looks more plausible

Depends on the date of TTL marriage between Philip and Isabella , this could be earlier than the assassination, and thus any potential sale of Bar.

I think about the following timeline: Michelle dies in spring 1417 shortly after her brother John of Touraine. Philip and Isabella are betrothed sometime in the summer and marry probably in 1418 (either before the Paris campaign of John or reasonably soon after that).
Thus the marriage happens quite a while before Louis names his heir, he may even truly consider John and Philip's offer to buy Bar. However I think he will chose Rene either immediately before the bridge of Montereau incident or shortly after it (the assassination may serve as a final push for Louis to pick Angevines)

Deep in their heart Burgundy wasn't really supporting the Van Egmonds, they wanted the duchy of Gelre (and county of Zutphen) for themselves. The duchy of Jülich/Gulik would have surrounded the imperial Imperial Town of Aachen, but more importantly Jülich was the birthright of Adolf.

Sure, but probably above all he didn't want a united duchy Julich-Berg-Guelders as unlike smaller holdings it could become a truly independent player. This strategy even worked: both Guelders and Julich-Berg (as well as Cleves) became highly dependent on Burgundy even ifGuelders while tried to combat this influence (which in the end led to duchy being annexed by Charles the Bold). Presumably making the same with united Julich-Berg-Guelders would be much much more difficult

ITTL it might not be unlikely that Jeanne may keep Guise now as a compensation for Burgundy-Lorraine keeping Bar.

I don't think that would work since under the framework of Lancastrian France John of Luxemburg already was a legitimate count of Guise since 1422 (when Henry V officially confiscated the county from Rene and invested John with it; Henry VI government i. e. Bedford confirmed this grant in 1423).
While IOTL John was willing to negotiate with Rene to remove his claim (in the end it didn’t work as Charles VII confiscated Guise no matter what, he simply didn’t return it to Rene), Philip almost certainly needs something else to buy out his vassal, presumably some combination of money and additional fiefs in Bar.

I wouldn't expand Ligny directly, but give the count of Ligny also a or some additional fiefs in Bar, if needed.

Agreed, giving John/Jeanne additional fiefs in Bar is probably a better legal framework for compensation than expanding the county of Ligny directly.

Well John the Fearless also had a couple of daughters, which can and will be used instead, either by him or their brother Philip. IMHO at least one IOTL English match will be axed.

Sure, and IOTL Philip used his sisters for advancing his political agenda really effectively (and when he ran out sisters, he used his nieces from Cleves and great-nieces from Guelders). But marring younger daughters (later sisters) of duke of Burgundy does not have nearly as powerful effect as marrying the only heir of the duke or the duke himself.

Still with Philip the Good married to Isabel of Lorraine ITTL, this will have effect on the marriages of his sisters, which will have to make up for a bit for relative misalliance of Philip ITTL.
IOTL Marie of Burgundy was married to duke Adolf of Cleves; Margaret of Burgundy was first married to Dauphin Louis of Valois (who died in 1415, she only remarried in 1423), then the mentioned Richard of Richemont; Anne of Burgundy was married to John of Lancaster, duke of Bedford; and Agnes of Burgundy married duke Charles I of Bourbon.
This might mean ITTL Burgundy might be looking for a more advantageous second husband for Margaret of Burgundy.

So she may be on the list?

IMHO she, Margaret, seems to be the most obvious one to look for a better match ITTL. Cleves, Bedford (as a proxy for England) and Bourbon aren't too bad as marriage alliances. The earldom of Richmond not so much, especially since Richard of Richemont only became duke of Brittany after the OTL death of Margaret.

IMHO Philip chose husbands for all his sisters really, really well.
Anne simply has to marry Bedford since this marriage is an important part of Burgundian-English alliance. I we don't butterfly away John's murder and this alliance, the marriage is a must. Also, it could potentially be really profitable since Bedford made Philip his heir in the kingdom of France in case he had no direct descendants (and he didn't have them IOTL)

Agnes who married Charles of Bourbon was a pillar of the truce first with Bourbon and later with Dauphin himself (which Philip absolutely needs in order to combat Humphrey ambitions in Netherlands). Also duke of Bourbon is among top 4 non-royal lanowners in France, so realistically she couldn't do that much better.

I agree that if one marriage has to go, it has to be Margaret’s. However, Arthur de Richemont (his name was Arthur, not Richard) is not an earl of Richmond (it was a titular earldom). He is brother of duke of Brittany though and he was necessary for the triple alliance of Bedford, Philip and John of Brittany (treaty of Amiens of 1423). This treaty is what defined Burgundian-English cooperation in 1420s-1430s and is really important for Philip's policy. Additionally, Arthur was not a peasant himself, he was granted the duchy of Touraine by English which he forfeited after his switching back to Dauphin (so when Margaret was marrying him, he was a duke) and recieved quite a few titles from Dauphin after that as well as the position of Constable of Dauphinist France (which Arthur held for more than 30 years).
Moreover while the whole Arthur switching sides (which he presumably did after asking for advice from Philip) presumably didn’t work for duke of Burgundy all that well (although it was a decent safety net against English which Philip desperately needed in 1424-1425: it did serve as a reminder to Bedford that Philip can go to Dauphin himself and was probably one of the reasons why Bedford continuously supported Philip against his own brother Humphrey), Arthur became the leader of pro-Burgundian party at the court of Charles VII and improved Philip’s relationship with Angevines, who also had good relationship with Arthur (which Philip later screwed with his treatment of Rene in 1430s)
So Arthur is a pretty perfect way for Philip hedge his bets a little bit in regards to Dauphinists and Lancastrians and arguably Philips really needs this in the period when Humphrey is trying to wrestle Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland from Philip.

Having said all that, Margaret herself was not thrilled with the candidature of Arthur for her hand (she was, after all a widow of dauphin and she considered Arthur below her statue). IOTL Philip has convinced Margaret to marry Arthur, but if any one marriage has to go it is this one. However I don’t see a lot of candidates for Margaret of better standing than Arthur.
If anyone has a better groom for Margaret, I'd be happy to hear about it (although I do think that while her OTL marriage had its flaws, he did serve quite a few important purposes really well)

 

[Shnurre]

Here is a first half of a long-promised list of possible divergencies in 1417-1429 (I have decided to split the post in two so that it doesn't become too massive, but the second half is almost ready and should be published soon). For each item I also provide reasons why I think that either divergencies won't happen or will happen, but won't have major lasting consequences.

Before diving in, I see several ways to plausibly cancel or significantly alter the fate of Joan of Arc (as I mentioned in my first post), which are listed under items 3, 7, 8 and 9. While I would prefer to avoid Joan of Arc-less France, I don’t want this thread to become implausible, so if you find my arguments on why I believe everything might roughly follow the OTL lines in regards to her, unconvincing I will reconsider.

1. In 1417-1418 Charles of Lorraine presumably should participate in John the Fearless’s campaigns against Paris as I think such a participation should be one of the most important conditions of Philip marrying Isabella (see the discussion in the previous posts). Even if it is not a part of marriage contract, Charles is closer allied to Burgundy and would be more willing to join John for monetary compensation (like he did several times during the period of 1408-1415).
However I don’t think that Charles’s participation would change much. After all John was able to achieve his goal IOTL as well. Maybe the campaigns run a bit more smoothly ITTL, but the only really impactful possible divergence I see here is if John would be able to capture or kill dauphin Charles. And I don’t think the duke of Lorraine participation should have an effect on that.

2. In 1418 John demanded chatellenies Peronne, Roye and Montdidier from Charles VI because Michelle’s dowry was still unpaid.
In late 1419 Henry V promised to cede Philip, Michelle and their descendants lands with annual revenue of 20 thousand livres in lieu of Michelle’s dowry (basically stating that either Peronne, Roye and Montdidier grant would be confirmed as Burgundian or that Philip would be compensated by lands of comparable value). IOTL Michelle died in 1422 without a surviving issue and Bedford confirmed these 3 chatellenies as Burgundian in 1423 (and added Tournai into the mix).
I think that Michelle dying earlier than these events doesn’t really change much. John still controls Charles VI’s government in 1418 and the death of the bride is not an excuse for not paying the agreed upon dowry. Henry V still needs Philip’s alliance and should have no problems confirming the cession considering the fact that Burgundians control these territories (as well as many other towns and castles). If anything, Bedford would now have no reason to confirm the land grant yet again in 1423 as he did IOTL in the treaty of Amiens (IOTL Henry V ceded the chatellenies to Philip, Michelle and their descendants, which was invalidated after Michelle died without issue; ITTL Michelle is already dead by the time Philip and Henry negotiate for alliance and thus Henry would probably cede these territories to Philip directly, so renegotiation with Bedford would be unnecessary). Thus Philip may gain some additional territories for his support from Bedford (presumably it should be some other territories in Picardy under Burgundian control e. g. bailliage of Amiens; formal session to Burgundy would somewhat increase Burgundian control over it, but overall won’t change much).
Even if Philip doesn’t receive these 3 chatellenies in 1418 and 1419 or in 1423 he almost certainly would receive them in 1424 (when he also formally received counties of Macon and Auxerre and chatellenie of Bar-sur-Seine that were conquered by John in 1410s) to motivate Philip to recognize of session of Anjou and Maine to Bedford.
So overall this divergence shouldn’t have a lot of lasting consequences

3. Charles of Lorraine IOTL didn’t participate in the warfare in France from 1415 to 1431 (his death) although he was constable of (Burgundian) France in 1418-1425. ITTL there are two time periods for him when he can potentially take part in the war.
The first one, which is discussed in this item, is 1420-1424 i. e. between the treaty of Troyes and the truce of Chambery (that Philip concluded with dauphin in October 1424 and which was prolonged several times until it finally ended in November 1428). Although the truce didn’t prevent Philip’s subjects from participating in the war on the orders on Lancastrian king of France (which they actively did) and Charles of Lorraine is not even a vassal of Philip (so no truce Philip concludes shall bind him), I don’t think the duke of Lorraine would fight on his own volition (after all he didn’t IOTL). Thus, when his son-in-law Philip is at peace the probability of Charles waging war by himself is slim to none.
On the other hand, the potential involvement of Charles in the war could potentially be extremely impactful since the Vaucoulears that played such an important role in the fate of Joan of Arc is the closest point to Lorraine under the control of Dauphinists and thus probably would be the Charles’s first target. Half of Joan’s native village Domremy is part of chatellenie of Vaucoulears (the other half is part of duchy of Bar) and any warfare in the area could potentially butterfly away the Maid of Orleans (either by directly killing her or e. g. by butterflying away some major formative events in her life such as sack of her village in 1425).
Having said all that, I don’t think that Charles really has a lot of motivation to participate in the war himself. He is reasonably old and he doesn’t have much to gain from the war personally. IOTL he was a constable of Burgundian France and this fact didn’t urge him to fight the Dauphinists. ITTL he is closer aligned with Burgundy, yes, but on the other hand he doesn’t have an alliance with Bar and thus has to be on a lookout for a potential attack from Rene and Louis (Lorraine and Bar had been rivals until the OTL marriage of Rene and Isabella), who could either attack Lorraine directly or join the Dauphinist forces (IOTL Bar didn’t participate in the war even while the county of Guise that also belonged to Rene was being conquered by John of Luxemburg and I have very little doubt the same would happen ITTL; but Charles has no way to be sure of it). As a consequence, it is probably not the smartest idea for Charles to be seriously involved in the warfare in France even if he wants to, which is doubtful as well.


The only divergence that will almost certainly happen is the recognition by Charles the treaty if Troyes immediately in 1420 (perhaps even with Charles himself being present in Troyes) instead of in 1422 like it happened IOTL. But such a formal recognition two years earlier than IOTL should not have any lasting consequences on its own.

4. The next divergence will definitely happen ITTL: namely Philip the Good will not marry Bonne of Artois which happened IOTL in 1424 and lasted for about a year. IOTL the purpose of marriage was twofold: firstly, to secure the truce with Charles of Bourbon (Bonne of Artois is his half-sister) and secondly to increase Philip’s already considerable influence over his underage cousins of Nevers.
However ITTL both these goals can probably be achieved without marrying Bonne. The truce with Bourbon can be secured by Charles of Bourbon’s marriage to Philip’s sister Agnes (IOTL there had been a double marriage, but while a single marriage ITTL looks less impressive, it would presumably do the job just as fine). The second one is not achieved immediately (although Philip had a massive influence over Nevers irregardless of the fact that Bonne was its regent, not him). But in 1425 Bonne dies as per OTL and Philip becomes the regent of Nevers even without marrying her, simply because he is closest relative of his Nevers cousins.
A minor change that Philip ITTL would not have to secure a Papal dispensation to marry Bonne (she was a widow of his uncle and thus was considered his close relative). However ITTL Philip enjoyed a powerful sway over
So this change definitely will happen, but probably won’t alter much if anything at all.



5. 1420s are the years of rapid expansion by Philip in the Netherlands. I don’t see many reasons why events here should diverge from OTL. But to be on the safe side, I will describe what happened IOTL in this item.
Thus, in 1419 Philip as per OTL tries to mediate between his cousin Jaqueline and his (and her) uncle John of Bavaria (bishop of Liege) and basically favors John in this dispute despite the fact that Jaqueline was married to another Philip’s cousin John of Brabant (presumably because John of Bavaria was the weaker party and Philip wanted to prevent further warfare; also, probably support of John by mercantile Cods that had extensive trade relations with Flanders was an important factor).
John of Brabant, being who he both IOTL and ITTL, still mortgages Holland and Zeeland to John of Bavaria and consequently Jaqueline as per OTL flees her husband’s court in Brussels. Soon enough she arrives to England where she with support of Henry V declares her marriage to duke of Brabant invalid because they failed to obtain a Papal dispensation for it (John was her first cousin) and “marries” Humphrey of Gloucester instead (in the end Pope would declare the second marriage invalid, but it will definitively happen only in 1428). In 1424 Jaqueline and Humphrey travel to Hainaut in late 1424 with Humphrey’s retinue thus making Philip’s and dauphine’s truce of Chambery almost inevitable.
In 1425 John of Bavaria dies, leaving to Philip’s his considerable appanage in Holland and Zeeland (for which Philip was made an heir in 1424) as well as his political position as a leader of Cods and administrator of the three counties (Philip persuaded John of Brabant to share administration of Hainaut and to transfer the administration of Holland and Zeeland to him for 12 years). Humphrey as per OTL leaves Hainaut for England abandoning Jaqueline, but she manages to flee to Holland and starts her rebellion, which lasts until 1428 (although Philip controls all of Hainaut and most of Zeeland and Holland, including almost all the important ports and large cities the entire time).
Thus the truce with daupine in late 1424, the cooling down of relationship with English and the Philip’s preoccupation with Jaqueline’s lands during 1424-1428 should happen as per OTL.
I also see no reason to change anything in regards to Namur (and thus its count in 1421 sells the right to inherit the county to Philip, which the latter does in 1429).

6. Philip IOTL made attempts to gain Luxemburg in this time period. In 1427 he bought claims to the duchy from his cousin Philip of St. Paul (who inherited Brabant and Limburg from his brother John in 1427 and had rights to Luxemburg because their father Antoine was duke of Luxemburg jus uxoris) and made deal with his aunt twice over Elizabeth of Gorlitz, by which she agreed to cede large part of the Luxemburg’s administration to Philip as well as promised to make him her heir. IOTL Luxemburg estates were opposed to Philip’s rule and with Emperor Sigismund’s support they were able to resist his attempts in taking power in duchy
ITTL this may be more of a priority for Philip since he is already set to inherit both Lorraine and Namur and controls Hainaut and thus Luxemburg would unlike IOTL link all his domains via his or ecclesiastical territories. However, I don’t see the way for Philip to force his way without the support of Luxemburg estates and with an active opposition from emperor. Perhaps troops from Lorraine could potentially help to claim Luxemburg two decades earlier than IOTL. However Chalres of Lorraine is presumably occupied with Antoine de Vaudemont’s rebellion (see item 7) and Philip has enough trouble with Holy Roman Empire as it is: his inheritance of Lorraine is contested by a strong claimant which would certainly gain recognition from Sigismund (IOTL Sigismund did everything to stop and possibly revert Burgundian expansion) and Philip’s acquisition of Hainaut, Holland and Zeeland, fight for which is still ongoing in 1427-1428, has very little legitimacy. Adding another debatable acquisition of HRE state to the mix could potentially lead to a strong backlash. After all Philip’s means as well as his circumstances are not that much different from OTL and if IOTL he had an opportunity to take Luxemburg in 1427, he would probably have made a stronger attempt.


What do you guys think? Do you agree with my argumentation for each item why the divergencies described should not have a major lasting impact? Did I miss something major in the first half of 1420s (the possible alterations of the second half of 1420s will come in the second half of the post)
@Janprimus , I would especially appriciate your input for items 5 and 6 (although of course would be grateful for your comments in relation to anything in this post or discussed previously)