Pan-Turkic union after 1992

[Melvin Loh]

Apparently, after the USSR's dissolution in 1991/92, Turkey was considering expanding its sphere of influence into the former Soviet Central Asian Turkic republics, with discussions held to this end to promote some form of pan-=Turkic union between Ankara and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. However, these discussions eventually came to noguth,s since the Central Asian new successor states were still much tied to Russia in a post-colonial context, and didn't wish to merely swap 1 'big brother' for another. However, WI there had been a greater degree of Pan-Turkish identity during this period ? How would the Turks and Central Asinas have come to develop politically, economicallyu and culturally with each other ? How would they have worked tog on such issues as the proposed trans-Eurasia oil pipeline, international terrorism and drug-running, and regional conflicts like the Tajik civil war (1992-97) ?

 

[Straha]

Well with more of an eastern focus forget about Turkey wanting to get into the EU.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Well with more of an eastern focus forget about Turkey wanting to get into the EU.

Yes, but they can now be the dominant party in a Turkish superpower, which could be the EU's equal.

Perhaps an earlier turn to Islamism (today's mild Islamism in Turkey that is) in Turkish politics might lead to this scenario.

 

[HueyLong]

Well, Islamism in Turkey is actually opposed to the pan-Turks, from what I understand.

And such a union wouldn't be anywhere near the EU in terms of development or importance.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Well, Islamism in Turkey is actually opposed to the pan-Turks, from what I understand.

And such a union wouldn't be anywhere near the EU in terms of development or importance.

Islamism need not be the pan-Turk ideology. All it needs to do is make the EU more leery of admitting Turkey or make the Turks less interested in the EU.

The EU could adopt more Armenian Genocide resolutions, alienating the Turks early on.

They won't equal the EU at once, but once they develop the oil resources, watch the money roll in. I smell future superpower.

 

[Keenir]

Well with more of an eastern focus forget about Turkey wanting to get into the EU.

eh?

Ataturk said to look to the West. End of story.

 

[HueyLong]

Oil does not make a superpower. Far from it.

Not to mention that the Central Asians are going to have more problems with getting their oil resources developed- look at all the pipeline schemes out there. Now, add in a perturbed Russia and Caucasus. Russia has already shown how willing it is to act on even symbolic association with the west in its former states- this would be far more than that. And, Russia has been more than willing to mess with OPEC- now, it would have an opposing oil producer right next door.

 

[MerryPrankster]

eh?

Ataturk said to look to the West. End of story.

But what if the West continually rejects them and they get sick of it?

Perhaps a hybrid ideology of East (their "Turkish brothers" and Islam) and West (European-style government) emerges.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Oil does not make a superpower. Far from it.

Not to mention that the Central Asians are going to have more problems with getting their oil resources developed- look at all the pipeline schemes out there. Now, add in a perturbed Russia and Caucasus. Russia has already shown how willing it is to act on even symbolic association with the west in its former states- this would be far more than that. And, Russia has been more than willing to mess with OPEC- now, it would have an opposing oil producer right next door.

Russia in the early 1990s was too weak to do anything--they were beaten by the Chechens!

If Turkey tried this stunt now there'd be trouble, but pre-Putin would be another matter.

EDIT: Furthermore, if Turkey even tried to extend its influence eastward, that would imply a certain distancing of itself from the West to start with that would make Russia a trifle less paranoid.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Turkey would have it a lot easier to extend its influence in the 'stans if it has the complete cooperation of Azerbaijan. And the best way to do that would be to attack Armenia.

 

[HueyLong]

It wouldn't make the Russians less paranoid about Turkish ambitions- they would simply become "the West" in that area, the power to be feared and to work against. The power trying to take control in the area that is theirs.

The Chechen War is a different matter from their international strong arm approach- heck, Chechnya being in the government mind makes a hardline approach more likely. Nor does meddling have to happen right at the formation- it would dog it the entire time, especially as oil development or more economic cohesion is attempted.

 

[MerryPrankster]

It wouldn't make the Russians less paranoid about Turkish ambitions- they would simply become "the West" in that area, the power to be feared and to work against. The power trying to take control in the area that is theirs.

The Chechen War is a different matter from their international strong arm approach- heck, Chechnya being in the government mind makes a hardline approach more likely. Nor does meddling have to happen right at the formation- it would dog it the entire time, especially as oil development or more economic cohesion is attempted.

Who said Chechnya would be part of the new Turkic state? The Chechans to my knowledge are not Turks.

I brought up Chechnya b/c it was an example of Russian weakness at the time--the great Russian army was defeated by essentially a bunch of tribal types with small arms.

However, you raise the excellent point that even if Russia isn't able to prevent the integration of the 'stans with Turkey proper by brute force, it could still make lots of trouble. There are probably lots of ethnic minorities in the future Turanic Union that could be given weaponry and cash.

Kazakhstan could be a major sore point, as it is half-Russian population-wise. Russia might not care so much about a small country like Turkmenistan, but if the Turanic Union tries to incorporate Kazakhstan, I would expect mayhem (Russia might insist on the Russian areas being allowed to secede and join Russia, fund Russian-ethnic guerrillas, or even intervene militarily "in defense of minority rights").

 

[HueyLong]

My point was that a domestic situation like Chechnya lends itself to an emphasis on security internationally- if Chechnya is falling apart, they are more likely to view any attempts to step upon their sphere of influence with even more suspicion.

 

[MerryPrankster]

My point was that a domestic situation like Chechnya lends itself to an emphasis on security internationally- if Chechnya is falling apart, they are more likely to view any attempts to step upon their sphere of influence with even more suspicion.

True.

However, if the army cannot defeat a weak foe like the Chechens, it would likely have real problems if it tried to openly move against Turkey and its allies.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Turkey would have it a lot easier to extend its influence in the 'stans if it has the complete cooperation of Azerbaijan. And the best way to do that would be to attack Armenia.

Now that's a situation that could get ugly.

Huey Long is correct in pointing out that the Russians would not appreciate a mega-Turkey forming in the 'stans. The Armenians could find themselves in sudden possession of oodles of Russian hardware and "advisors."

Plus Iran is an ally of Armenia and would likely fear pan-Turkism, since there are many Turkic peoples who live in northern Iran and could represent a possible secession risk.

 

[Keenir]

But what if the West continually rejects them and they get sick of it?

after 75 years under the present governmental system, they've yet to get sick of it.

However, you raise the excellent point that even if Russia isn't able to prevent the integration of the 'stans with Turkey proper by brute force, it could still make lots of trouble. There are probably lots of ethnic minorities in the future Turanic Union that could be given weaponry and cash.

Wouldn't Hungary and Finland/Sweden have to be given membership in any Turanian Union?

Turkey would have it a lot easier to extend its influence in the 'stans if it has the complete cooperation of Azerbaijan. And the best way to do that would be to attack Armenia.

You seem to be fixated on the prospect of a war that can never happen.

 

[MerryPrankster]

after 75 years under the present governmental system, they've yet to get sick of it.

Wouldn't Hungary and Finland/Sweden have to be given membership in any Turanian Union?

You seem to be fixated on the prospect of a war that can never happen.

1. They might not be sick of trying to be a "Western Muslim country" but if Europe continually rejects them, they might go their own way--be a "Western Muslim country" and extend this modernization to their Turkish kin.

2. The Finns and Hungarians are too Europeanized and Christianized.

3. Never say never.

 

[Keenir]

1. They might not be sick of trying to be a "Western Muslim country" but if Europe continually rejects them, they might go their own way--be a "Western Muslim country" and extend this modernization to their Turkish kin.

Europe's been stalling for 75 years. Turkey's still patiently waiting its turn.

2. The Finns and Hungarians are too Europeanzed and Christianized.

And they're from the same stock - Turanism includes them alongside Turks.

3. Never say never.

Turkey's three times Armenia's size, better armed, and they have no reason to go to war.
(they're actually on very good terms with one another)

 

[MerryPrankster]

There's "ideal Turanism" and "practical Turanism."

Ideal Turanism would view Hungarians and Finns as brother Turks, despite the cultural and religious differences.

Practical Turanism, on the other hand, would be more limited to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, etc.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Turkey's three times Armenia's size, better armed, and they have no reason to go to war.
(they're actually on very good terms with one another)

Turkey could intervene to defend Azeris in N-K against Armenian "ethnic cleansing."

Remember, we're talking about the early 1990s, not today.