Pacific Thalassocracy

[Burton K Wheeler]

No, the Polynesians don't count. Bear with me...

Someone mentioned 1421 the other day and it got me thinking. While China from the Tang dynasty on probably had the capability to visit and trade throughout the Pacific Rim, its tendency to be a large centralized state makes Chinese colonization or sustained trade with the the Americas or any other remote part of the Pacific Rim unlikely (though I'm aware there were sustained Chinese trading networks in Southeast Asia).

Europe, on the other hand, at least from the medieval period on, was very likely to create sustained trade in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Even if superpowers like France had no interest in the Americas, there was always going to be a Netherlands or Portugal, or an English joint stock company, or Genoese or Venetian merchants, or someone who wants to build long-lasting trade networks.

So the challenge is to create a Pacific Rim sea power that trades with China or Southeast Asia and has the capability to trade regularly with the New World or reach Africa and India if they want to.

The technology existed from very early on. Sea Dayaks from Borneo colonized Madagascar in the first centuries AD. Chinese junks were at least the equivalent of European medieval ships. Of course the Polynesians and Micronesians were great navigators, perhaps the best ever. So why wasn't there a Pacific version of Carthage or Venice or some other maritime republic?

Some candidates:

I've already said why China is probably not a good candidate, though an ethnic Chinese merchant republic seems likely.

While the Polynesians were fantastic seafarers, none of their polities except New Zealand had the population for sustained trading, and New Zealand was so big and rich that its people didn't need seafaring and abandoned a lot of it.

Currents are really favorable for Japan to trade with the New World. Japanese fishing boats wrecked in California and the Northwest all the time from the 1700's on, but was Japanese sailing advanced enough before that? I'm aware of the Wako in the medieval era, could they be the impetus for a seafaring culture?

One wild candidate that comes to mind is Aleuts, Aluutiiq, or Haida people reaching Asia.

Southeast Asia seems like the most likely place, given sailing technology, population, and access to trade networks, but I don't know which islands would be the place to start.

 

[Zachariah]

Spoiler: Spoiler Alert

Would what lies in the future of my Papua New Guinea wank TL count?

 

[TRH]

The Majapahit, perhaps? Maybe they'd need to convert to Islam or something to maintain social stability.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Spoiler: Spoiler Alert

Would what lies in the future of my Papua New Guinea wank TL count?

Were Papuans ever seafarers? I thought the high population densities were in the highlands and the coasts were actually settled from Indonesia. Melanesians from New Britain or the Solomons might be a candidate.

The Majapahit, perhaps? Maybe they'd need to convert to Islam or something to maintain social stability.

Java seems unlikely, because like China and France, it has a hugely productive agricultural heartland and no reason to look towards the sea. When we look at European thalassocracies, they were either merchant city-states like Venice or Carthage, or they were countries that relied on the sea. Britain wasn't an agricultural powerhouse until the late 1600's, and before that it relied on fishing and the North Sea wool trade to sustain its economy, so British seafarers were very likely to make an impact in the early Modern era. Early Medieval Norway prior to the Little Ice Age was another middling power with limited agriculture and strong incentive for sea trade. The Netherlands wasn't quite a merchant republic with no hinterland, but it was close. Portugal was a poor country with a strong history of fishing and an incredibly strategic location. Japan looks like the best candidate by these standards, but Japan is geographically isolated enough from the rest of Asia that it can ignore it, which Britain never could.

 

[TRH]

Java seems unlikely, because like China and France, it has a hugely productive agricultural heartland and no reason to look towards the sea. When we look at European thalassocracies, they were either merchant city-states like Venice or Carthage, or they were countries that relied on the sea. Britain wasn't an agricultural powerhouse until the late 1600's, and before that it relied on fishing and the North Sea wool trade to sustain its economy, so British seafarers were very likely to make an impact in the early Modern era. Early Medieval Norway prior to the Little Ice Age was another middling power with limited agriculture and strong incentive for sea trade. The Netherlands wasn't quite a merchant republic with no hinterland, but it was close. Portugal was a poor country with a strong history of fishing and an incredibly strategic location. Japan looks like the best candidate by these standards, but Japan is geographically isolated enough from the rest of Asia that it can ignore it, which Britain never could.

Taking into consideration that this is way outside my wheelhouse of knowledge, I was given to understand that the Majapahit were much more outwardly focused than prior or succeeding Javanese states. They seem to have extended their influence through most of Southeast Asia during this period, which seems like a solid foundation for the kind of empire you're looking for.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Taking into consideration that this is way outside my wheelhouse of knowledge, I was given to understand that the Majapahit were much more outwardly focused than prior or succeeding Javanese states. They seem to have extended their influence through most of Southeast Asia during this period, which seems like a solid foundation for the kind of empire you're looking for.

I know next to nothing about Southeast Asia, so that's very helpful, thank you.

The next question is what would extended Majapahit trade networks look like? I assume they'd trade with India and up the Chinese coast. The east coast of Africa and North Australia seem like a bit of a reach.

Geography makes certain trade networks basically inevitable. Europe needed gold, Prince Henry knew gold came over the Sahara, he sent ships to West Africa. The currents made discovering Brazil inevitable, brazilwood incentivized settlement of the Brazilian coast. The trade with India via overland routes and the Red Sea was well known, rounding the Cape was an obvious next step. In other words, even without Henry the Navigator, given something that looks even vaguely like OTL Renaissance Europe, an Atlantic thalassocracy based in Galicia, Portugal, or Atlantic Morocco will probably do roughly what Portugal did.

What, then, are a Javanese thallassocracy's inevitable trade routes going to be?

 

[galveston bay]

I have always liked the Japanese myself, and in a forum based game even had them explore and then colonize the Pacific Northwest and Alaska in the 1700s (early game events had the non isolationists win the civil war that created the Shoganate)

The draw is the fur trade, which was highly profitable for American and British traders selling pelts to the Chinese for tea etc in OTL. At least until the sea otters were nearly killed off. Toss in whaling, walrus ivory, and a discovery of how wonderful eastern Oregon and Washington state is for farmers and its a viable colonization model. It helps that the Pacific Northwest looks a lot like Japan.

The Japanese in my game got their naval plans from the Dutch and Portuguese and built from there (in the 1600s)

 

[Zachariah]

Were Papuans ever seafarers? I thought the high population densities were in the highlands and the coasts were actually settled from Indonesia. Melanesians from New Britain or the Solomons might be a candidate.

The major POD in my TL, when it comes to the outside world, is that the Sa Huyun extend their own thallasocracy to there by 800 BC, advancing them into the Iron Age roughly 2 centuries before the Koreans did the same in Japan IOTL,

Spoiler

resulting in greater admixture between Austronesians and Melanesians to the extent that there's no discernable difference between the two by the present day ITTL, and where TTL's Polynesians are effectively Papuan.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

The major POD in my TL, when it comes to the outside world, is that the Sa Huyun extend their own thallasocracy to there by 800 BC, advancing them into the Iron Age roughly 2 centuries before the Koreans did the same in Japan IOTL,

Spoiler

resulting in greater admixture between Austronesians and Melanesians to the extent that there's no discernable difference between the two by the present day ITTL, and where TTL's Polynesians are effectively Papuan.

That's really interesting. I'm leaning towards an early POD, and that might help.

I have always liked the Japanese myself, and in a forum based game even had them explore and then colonize the Pacific Northwest and Alaska in the 1700s (early game events had the non isolationists win the civil war that created the Shoganate)

The draw is the fur trade, which was highly profitable for American and British traders selling pelts to the Chinese for tea etc in OTL. At least until the sea otters were nearly killed off. Toss in whaling, walrus ivory, and a discovery of how wonderful eastern Oregon and Washington state is for farmers and its a viable colonization model. It helps that the Pacific Northwest looks a lot like Japan.

The Japanese in my game got their naval plans from the Dutch and Portuguese and built from there (in the 1600s)

I like that idea, though I'm not sure it works well with a really early POD.

What I find when I look at Indonesian powers is that they have little incentive to do anything but trade between India, China, and the rest of Southeast Asia. There's no reason for Javanese sailors to visit South America, but the Japanese are on the fringes of Asian civilization (like the Portuguese, Norwegians, and British were in Europe), so they have every incentive if they get the right push.

The Ryukyu kingdom also crossed my mind, but seems unlikely before the medieval era.

 

[Mental_Wizard]

How about a Mesoamerican civilization reaching Asia?

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

How about a Mesoamerican civilization reaching Asia?

There was a South American trading culture based at Chincha in Peru that traded with Mexico. They probably used balsa rafts like the Kon-Tiki that Thor Heyerdrahl sailed from Peru to Polynesia in.

The winds and currents would normally take South American ships right through Polynesia towards the Solomon Islands, but if somehow they got blown off course north of the Equator, they'd get carried right towards the Phillipines, then catch the Kurosho Current which would take them past Japan and then back to the Pacific Northwest. Something like the Manila Galleon Route.

Hmm...Mexico is actually looking like a very good place for them, actually. I naysaid someone's suggestion for a Mexico/California sea trade route some time ago, but maybe I just wasn't being ambitious enough.

 

[AnonymousSauce]

There was a South American trading culture based at Chincha in Peru that traded with Mexico. They probably used balsa rafts like the Kon-Tiki that Thor Heyerdrahl sailed from Peru to Polynesia in.

The winds and currents would normally take South American ships right through Polynesia towards the Solomon Islands, but if somehow they got blown off course north of the Equator, they'd get carried right towards the Phillipines, then catch the Kurosho Current which would take them past Japan and then back to the Pacific Northwest. Something like the Manila Galleon Route.

Hmm...Mexico is actually looking like a very good place for them, actually. I naysaid someone's suggestion for a Mexico/California sea trade route some time ago, but maybe I just wasn't being ambitious enough.

On top of the potential for trade between Mexico and Asia, this might also open up the potential for propagation of the potato throughout the New World, which would gave earth-shattering effects for the history of the Americas.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

On top of the potential for trade between Mexico and Asia, this might also open up the potential for propagation of the potato throughout the New World, which would gave earth-shattering effects for the history of the Americas.

Especially the Pacific Northwest as far north as Cook Inlet. That area already supported a high population density with a diverse and high-protein diet, a stable and reliable calorie source that doesn't require intensive cultivation would make the Northwest one of the most densely populated places on the continent.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-polynesians-make-contact-with-mayans.137088/

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

Perhaps we have a POD prior to 1000 BC some obscure south East Asian or Indonesian culture begins to flex their sea muscles and vassalize/conquer the Polynesians.

As for an Amerindian state stretching west-that's more difficult interesting but it would require I think a little more technological development than where they were at. Maybe say in 500 years the inca or an culture inhabiting the same region would have developed sails that weren't just coast worthy.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Perhaps we have a POD prior to 1000 BC some obscure south East Asian or Indonesian culture begins to flex their sea muscles and vassalize/conquer the Polynesians.

As for an Amerindian state stretching west-that's more difficult interesting but it would require I think a little more technological development than where they were at. Maybe say in 500 years the inca or an culture inhabiting the same region would have developed sails that weren't just coast worthy.

The Chincha had cotton lateen sails when the Spanish got to Peru in the early 1500's, but I'm not sure how long they'd had those. The limit on South American ships was hull technology, not sails. Balsa rafts like Kon-Tiki are literally just a bunch of balsa logs lashed together and submerged underwater with the boat structure on top. They couldn't survive more than a couple sea voyages.

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

That's what I said their sailing technology was rather primitive-good for short term coastal trading but not the open pacific.

I like to think had the Indians been given more time to develop independently they might have achieved such technology at some point or another.

 

[Captain Jack]

This region and period isn't one I've studied in detail, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt, but one thing in particular occurs to me: All of the thalassocracies that come to mind were powerful because they controlled the trade in a key product, or products. Whatever that product was, it was so important that people were willing to pay for it, and controlling access to it gave the thalassocracy power. Particularly, I'm thinking of Venetian and later Portuguese domination of the spice trade, Phoenician and Carthaginian control of the trade in tin ore, and Hanseatic control of timber, fur, and other agricultural commodities from the Baltic. I suppose the Delain League would be a counter example, but I would argue it emerged in different circumstances that explain its outlier status.

I'm not aware of any product that could fill that role in the Pacific. Any ideas as to what could fill that role? The things I can think of are jade from Mesoamerica to East Asia or guano from South America to Asia and northern parts of the Americas. Maybe refined metals and/or spices from the Asian side back across to the Americas? Maybe agricultural staples could be shipped to the Peruvian coast from further North or South, if the civilizations/ciy-states of that region are able to grow beyond their local production. That seems more likely as a product of a thalassocracy establishing these trade routes than a cause though.

 

[Puzzle]

I'm not aware of any product that could fill that role in the Pacific. Any ideas as to what could fill that role?

That's what I was going to say on reading this thread. What goods do the various polynesian islands produce that are unique enough to trade for amongst themselves? The islands all seem pretty self sufficient, and in much the same way. Also, thalassocracy is my favorite name for a type of polity.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

That's what I said their sailing technology was rather primitive-good for short term coastal trading but not the open pacific.

I like to think had the Indians been given more time to develop independently they might have achieved such technology at some point or another.

In the TL I'm working on I had sailing technology from an Atlantic thallasocracy crossing the Atlantic at the Isthmus of Tehuantapec, I just was wondering if I was missing any really obvious chance to do Pacific contact too. Besides the Polynesians, who don't have the population for sustained exchange, there wasn't anything close. Seems that other than Ming treasure fleets and lost Japanese fishermen, there aren't a lot of opportunities.

This region and period isn't one I've studied in detail, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt, but one thing in particular occurs to me: All of the thalassocracies that come to mind were powerful because they controlled the trade in a key product, or products. Whatever that product was, it was so important that people were willing to pay for it, and controlling access to it gave the thalassocracy power. Particularly, I'm thinking of Venetian and later Portuguese domination of the spice trade, Phoenician and Carthaginian control of the trade in tin ore, and Hanseatic control of timber, fur, and other agricultural commodities from the Baltic. I suppose the Delain League would be a counter example, but I would argue it emerged in different circumstances that explain its outlier status.

I'm not aware of any product that could fill that role in the Pacific. Any ideas as to what could fill that role? The things I can think of are jade from Mesoamerica to East Asia or guano from South America to Asia and northern parts of the Americas. Maybe refined metals and/or spices from the Asian side back across to the Americas? Maybe agricultural staples could be shipped to the Peruvian coast from further North or South, if the civilizations/ciy-states of that region are able to grow beyond their local production. That seems more likely as a product of a thalassocracy establishing these trade routes than a cause though.

The problem you always have with China trade is that there really isn't anything Asia wants except possibly precious metals. It's possible to have a China-India trade, but neither really has much to import from anywhere else in the world.

That's what I was going to say on reading this thread. What goods do the various polynesian islands produce that are unique enough to trade for amongst themselves? The islands all seem pretty self sufficient, and in much the same way. Also, thalassocracy is my favorite name for a type of polity.

The Polynesian islands are all pretty resource-poor one way or another, but things like shells or parrot feathers work fine as a medium of exchange in the Americas if they're exotic enough. Lack of trade goods isn't the issue with Polynesians, it's population.