OTL Election maps resources thread

[Thande]

It's the ones like South Norfolk where the map's already so big/long that I've had to stack them on top of eachother that I'm more worried about.

We'll figure it out when we get to it I guess.

My intention is that we will also have a 2015 map when we eventually start new image files for the next tranches of local elections, and that one can be full-sized so these ones can be small if necessary.

 

[Alex Richards]

We'll figure it out when we get to it I guess.

My intention is that we will also have a 2015 map when we eventually start new image files for the next tranches of local elections, and that one can be full-sized so these ones can be small if necessary.

That makes a lot of sense.

 

[Uhura's Mazda]

Right, as I've now finished Enterprise Episode 4 [/Shameless Plug], I've also updated the Erewash map. The 2015 election map is a bit more difficult to fit in to this more narrow format, so what do people think about that?

As for the results itself, the Conservatives increased their majority on the new seats, picking up a couple of extra seats in Ilkeston (the Hallam fields may be partially from UKIP vote splitting) and sweeping through the more prosperous parts of Long Eaton. A combination of the general election turnout and the UKIP surge mean that in general the majorities were much smaller this year compared to 2011.

As every seat had Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates, and Erewash is a key marginal in the area, I've also done a comparison of Turnout by ward and party voteshare. While caveats obviously apply in terms of how much the council votes match the constituency results, if this is at all indicative it shows a rather concerning pattern for Labour- there is a very strong correlation between the Conservative voteshare and the overall turnout by ward, and while the Labour voteshare/turnout correlation is slightly weaker I think a lot of this is due to the impact of UKIP- Hallam Fields was almost a three-way marginal. Considering that the difference in turnout between Cotmanhay (56.9%) and my own Breaston (75.9%) is a staggering 19%, I can't help but think that the biggest reason why Labour failed to take the seat was due to their voters staying home.

Wow, that is a very clear pattern. I'm proud to live in the Red bastion in the South of that map, but ashamed at how few people walked 2 minutes down the road to the town hall. Do you think the turnout differential is due to complacent canvassing, failures in the air war, or what?

 

[Thande]

Wow, that is a very clear pattern. I'm proud to live in the Red bastion in the South of that map, but ashamed at how few people walked 2 minutes down the road to the town hall. Do you think the turnout differential is due to complacent canvassing, failures in the air war, or what?

It's a fairly general national pattern I think that Labour voting areas correlate to lower turnout, though there will be regional variations.

 

[Arsonist]

Roll up! Roll up! Pin the red rosette on the scouse donkey here, marvel as the actual Liberal Party fail to get a councillor elected, watch on in awe as the vote weighing machine breaks and gasp in shock that the Lib Dems keep a councillor

On a more serious note, the map really does show that there are currently no challengers to Labour in Liverpool, especially when you look back pre-2010.

 

[Thande]

Roll up! Roll up! Pin the red rosette on the scouse donkey here, marvel as the actual Liberal Party fail to get a councillor elected, watch on in awe as the vote weighing machine breaks and gasp in shock that the Lib Dems keep a councillor

On a more serious note, the map really does show that there are currently no challengers to Labour in Liverpool, especially when you look back pre-2010.

Thanks for doing that one. Interesting that the Lib Dems held that one ward this time when they didn't in 2014, though the specific incumbent might have been a factor I guess. The Greens have their one ward of St Michael's but can't expand out of it, and even with a general election turnout I'm slightly surprised the Continuity Liberals didn't keep their seat, as it seems to be a UPLB one usually.

By the way when you edit these can you leave the original names on and then put your name with "-2015" next to/below them, just so the original person who did the earlier maps is still acknowledged - I know I'm already there in the 'format from' but Alex made some of these from scratch as well. Thanks.

 

[Alex Richards]

Wow, that is a very clear pattern. I'm proud to live in the Red bastion in the South of that map, but ashamed at how few people walked 2 minutes down the road to the town hall. Do you think the turnout differential is due to complacent canvassing, failures in the air war, or what?

It's a fairly general national pattern I think that Labour voting areas correlate to lower turnout, though there will be regional variations.

It's certainly something I noticed before in Labour safe seats vs. Conservative ones, but I'm somewhat shocked that it still holds so true in a marginal constituency.

And Liverpool was one of yours anyway, though of course thanks for pointing it out for the future.

 

[Arsonist]

By the way when you edit these can you leave the original names on and then put your name with "-2015" next to/below them, just so the original person who did the earlier maps is still acknowledged - I know I'm already there in the 'format from' but Alex made some of these from scratch as well. Thanks.

Sorry about that, will correct that on both of the previous and any others that I update. Don't want to steal the credit for creating these great maps.

 

[Thande]

Sorry about that, will correct that on both of the previous and any others that I update. Don't want to steal the credit for creating these great maps.

Don't worry, I could tell you hadn't done it on purpose. We appreciate the help in updating them!

And now, as there is an AH.com meetup happening in Birmingham this weekend, I thought this was an opportune time to update England's second city (Manchester looks annoyed). As a reminder a labelled map can be found on Andy Teale's site here: http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/57/

Some of the trends have continued from the last few cycles, especially Labour's noticeable vote concentration in its heartland (a microcosm of the country) but the general election turnout and the lack of recent unpopular Labour council properties (as was the case in 2014) means Labour did rather better, beating the Tories in most of the swing wards (including Kingstanding which the Tories won two seats of in 2014 and a preceding by-election) and battering down the Lib Dems to two wards. (While I'm sure it must have different demographics to the surrounding area, the sheer indefatiguability of Lib Dem Perry Barr ward in the northwest is somehow hilarious to me). As Iain described to us, a UKIP candidate in Shard End almost stumbled into an unexpected victory in 2014 only for the Labour incumbent to barely survive: the result is nowhere near as close in that ward this time but it's still UKIP's strongest ward with a hair under 30% of the vote.

I believe that as with Doncaster this year, next year Birmingham is reducing its councillor numbers (questionably, as they already have the most voters per councillor of any local authority), changing its ward boundaries and switching to all-ups. So the councillors elected here will only serve for one year.

I compared the notional consolidated council votes by constituency to the actual constituency votes on a spreadsheet (Birmingham is convenient that way) and interestingly there was very little vote-splitting here. The Tories have frequently done well in council elections in the south and then failed to translate it to general election success: the numbers show this is primarily a turnout differential rather than people splitting their votes. The Tories and Labour did slightly better for Parliament than the council (which is a common trend in many places), the Greens and especially the Lib Dems did noticeably better for the council than for Parliament, and curiously UKIP did slightly better for Parliament--though that might be because a few wards were missing UKIP candidates.

TUSC managed to put up a candidate in most wards but ended up with less than half a percent of the popular vote for the council, while the Greens broke 5%, just.

I think I may do some voteshare maps of this too...


Birmingham 2015

 

[Utgard96]

Something really should be done about Birmingham council, seeing as how it manages to be both uncomfortably bloated in terms of councillor numbers and in terms of voters per councillor. Borough councils under an upper-tier city council, mayhap?

 

[OwenM]

Second city!? Second city?! Have they ever had a Cleansing Committe Parade?

 

[Thande]

Something really should be done about Birmingham council, seeing as how it manages to be both uncomfortably bloated in terms of councillor numbers and in terms of voters per councillor. Borough councils under an upper-tier city council, mayhap?

That has been proposed, as has been the restoration of an upper-tier authority for the whole West Midlands urban area, but Coventry has a tendency to start stockpiling balaclavas every time the idea is mooted.

 

[Utgard96]

That has been proposed, as has been the restoration of an upper-tier authority for the whole West Midlands urban area, but Coventry has a tendency to start stockpiling balaclavas every time the idea is mooted.

Coventry really shouldn't even be in the West Midlands. They and the Meriden Gap ought to return to Warwickshire (and/or become a unitary) if such an idea goes through.

 

[Alex Richards]

Coventry really shouldn't even be in the West Midlands. They and the Meriden Gap ought to return to Warwickshire (and/or become a unitary) if such an idea goes through.

They're already effectively Unitaries. I rather like the idea of reducing the Ceremonial county to just Burmingham, the Black Country and Solihull town itself. I'd annex the Meriden gap to North Warks as well.

I've also updated Amber Valley. Not much to say here, particularly as half the seats in the Amber Valley constituency weren't up for election this time. The Conservatives swept through the marginal Ripley area (even taking Ripley and Marehay for the first time since 2008), but Alfreton remained solidly Labour.

Interestingly enough the only parties to put up a full slate were the Conservatives and the Green Party- UKIP missed 5 and Labour 1. This has had the rather pleasing consequence of meaning that South West Parishes had its first contested election in at least a decade.

 

[Thande]

I've also updated Amber Valley. Not much to say here, particularly as half the seats in the Amber Valley constituency weren't up for election this time. The Conservatives swept through the marginal Ripley area (even taking Ripley and Marehay for the first time since 2008), but Alfreton remained solidly Labour.

Interestingly enough the only parties to put up a full slate were the Conservatives and the Green Party- UKIP missed 5 and Labour 1. This has had the rather pleasing consequence of meaning that South West Parishes had its first contested election in at least a decade.

That is interesting, does fit with our general idea of 'Greens challenging Tories in rural areas where no-one else doth tread'.

Shame the cycles worked out so we didn't get a full council election at this point, it would have been fascinating to compare it with the parliamentary vote.

Was your ward up for election this time or not?

 

[Alex Richards]

That is interesting, does fit with our general idea of 'Greens challenging Tories in rural areas where no-one else doth tread'.

Shame the cycles worked out so we didn't get a full council election at this point, it would have been fascinating to compare it with the parliamentary vote.

Was your ward up for election this time or not?

Aye, Breaston ward in Erewash. Funnily enough one of the no-hoper Labour candidates in our ward was a school-friend of my sister's.

We also managed the highest turnout in the constituency, and second highest in the council by about 1%.

I've now also updated Bolsover. Labour ended up with a net gain of one, the Greens and Whitwell Resident's Association lost their seats and there was a sad increase in the number of uncontested elections. Quite a few seats were contested by TUSC (some where they were the only ones to oppose Labour). In fact, they almost got the same voteshare as UKIP.

 

[Thande]

I compared the notional consolidated council votes by constituency to the actual constituency votes on a spreadsheet (Birmingham is convenient that way) and interestingly there was very little vote-splitting here. The Tories have frequently done well in council elections in the south and then failed to translate it to general election success: the numbers show this is primarily a turnout differential rather than people splitting their votes.

Correction to this - I was mainly looking at the Tories' result in their target of Northfield, but in Edgbaston there was noticeable vote splitting: Labour were over five points ahead in the parliamentary vote but in the corresponding council wards grouped together, the Tories pulled ahead of Labour by three votes! Only 500 people appear to have voted in only the parliamentary election and not the council one in that area, so mainly it seems to be deliberate vote splitting.

 

[Thande]

Aye, Breaston ward in Erewash. Funnily enough one of the no-hoper Labour candidates in our ward was a school-friend of my sister's.

We also managed the highest turnout in the constituency, and second highest in the council by about 1%.

I've now also updated Bolsover. Labour ended up with a net gain of one, the Greens and Whitwell Resident's Association lost their seats and there was a sad increase in the number of uncontested elections. Quite a few seats were contested by TUSC (some where they were the only ones to oppose Labour). In fact, they almost got the same voteshare as UKIP.

Interesting that that one ward in the north-east went from having the independent 3rd in 2011 to first in 2015. It's usually the other way around with independents.

Speaking of which, I see from the Beeb's summary table that 125 independents lost their seats across the councils, which I suspect makes up a big part of the Conservative gains (+541) from those councils facing a general election turnout for the first time since 1979 (as we previously predicted on this thread). In fact the Tories gained control of 32 extra councils! And when Labour and the Lib Dems only lost seven between them... (Though NOC confuses this).

 

[Thande]

Here is Tendring, which includes Clacton. UKIP came 1 vote away from winning a plurality of council seats here (the Conservatives won Ramsey and Parkeston by a single vote).

Great work! That was another obvious one on the list of interesting ones to do. Feel free to add your own name at the top right, perhaps under '2015 by...' etc.

Can you also leave the 2010 general election on there and do a smaller one for 2015 - if you don't have the graphics programme to shrink it satisfactorily I can edit it for you?

 

[Thande]

A good 2015 interactive results map I was linked to, as the Beeb couldn't be bothered this year: looks rather blocky and 2005-ish but has a lot of cool options on the sidebar - http://principalfish.co.uk/election2015/

Note that the swing calculation counts from the last by-election result in the relevant seats rather than from 2010 as the Beeb does.

edit: Their site has changed to: http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/