No WW2 and Alt Cold War: Political Developments?

[NAF]

Let's create a scenario:

WW1 and the Treaty of Versailles happen as OTL, but the rise of the Nazis to power is avoided, with a sane, "vanilla" right-wing authoritarian government taking hold in Germany instead in the wake of the Great Depression. Through diplomacy, maneuvering, and small-scale conflict this Germany manages to achieve Anschluss and regain Memel, Danzig, and the Polish Corridor (a minor war being necessary for the latter). Let's assume that due to having a saner government and better diplomacy, Germany is able to paint itself as a bulwark against communism, and by the time the 50s come around Germany and other European states (Britain, etc.) have formed a capitalist bloc ala the OTL US-led one in opposition to the USSR in an alt version of the Cold War. Japan is still Japan, the US is staunchly isolationist, Mussolini still leads Italy, and Stalin is still in charge of the USSR.

Now with that in mind, what do political developments look like relative to OTL? A few questions to consider:

• Without a regime as crazy as the Nazis at the helm, could we see Germany liberalize on its own eventually? If so, how long do you expect this process to take and how democratic do you imagine it would be by the modern day?
• Would we see the development of an EU analogue? If so, who do you expect would be a part of it and how centralized would it be compared to OTL?
• How does the USSR develop without the devastation of WW2? Could it survive to the present day? Would it still "soften" as in OTL?
• Who does Italy align with? When would fascism collapse there -- if ever?
• With the US never being "awoken" and remaining largely isolationist, how does it develop differently? Without being at the head of the global anti-communism movement as in OTL, would socialism and leftist policies be more popular/acceptable after the first Red Scare is over?
• How does the alt Cold War affect the development and perception of socialism/socialist parties in the rest of Europe outside of the USSR? Could we still see the development of expansive social safety nets or would anti-communist sentiment see them stunted?
• Would Europe as a whole be more socially conservative? Could we see, in Germany for example, a rise in religiosity as we did in the US due to the OTL Cold War against an atheist USSR?
• What about Japan? Is it still poised to spiral into insanity? Would they align with the Western Bloc against the Soviets?
• What happens to European colonies? Is decolonization messier or more orderly than OTL? Does it take significantly longer?

 

[Lalli]

• Without a regime as crazy as the Nazis at the helm, could we see Germany liberalize on its own eventually? If so, how long do you expect this process to take and how democratic do you imagine it would be by the modern day?

Germany might democratise eventually but not in such scale as in OTL and Germany would remain more authotarian than in OTL.

• Would we see the development of an EU analogue? If so, who do you expect would be a part of it and how centralized would it be compared to OTL?

Probably not altough some cooperative organisation might be still exist. But it wouldn't be that integrated and centralised as OTL European Union.

• How does the USSR develop without the devastation of WW2? Could it survive to the present day? Would it still "soften" as in OTL?

ITTL Stalin probably would live bit longer than in OTL due lack of WW2 era stress. His succession issue would go differently. Soviet Union might be still exist in 2023 but it is not certain. Lot of depends what happens after Stalin's death.

• Who does Italy align with? When would fascism collapse there -- if ever?

Italy might still align with Germany. Fascism wasn't yet in 1920's and 1930's such level madness as nazism was. Another possible is too Spain. Fascism probably lasts about as long as Italy can keep Ethiopia. Losing Ethiopia would be similar disaster for fascist regime as losing African colonies was to Estado Novo.

• With the US never being "awoken" and remaining largely isolationist, how does it develop differently? Without being at the head of the global anti-communism movement as in OTL, would socialism and leftist policies be more popular/acceptable after the first Red Scare is over?

USA would face civil rights movemement much later than in OTL. Socialism would be bit more acceptable but I don't know if very much more than in OTL.

• How does the alt Cold War affect the development and perception of socialism/socialist parties in the rest of Europe outside of the USSR? Could we still see the development of expansive social safety nets or would anti-communist sentiment see them stunted?

I would expect social development being bit slower than in OTL. Europe would be longer more conservative and without devastation of WW2 there is fewer need to make social reforms. Socialist/left-wing parties probably would are still relatively popular.

• Would Europe as a whole be more socially conservative? Could we see, in Germany for example, a rise in religiosity as we did in the US due to the OTL Cold War against an atheist USSR?

Europe would be socially more conservative. And since no Holocaust, antisemitism would remain more acceptable.

• What about Japan? Is it still poised to spiral into insanity? Would they align with the Western Bloc against the Soviets?

It probably try still expand but I am not sure would it go as nuthead as in OTL. No idea how it would align itself regarding Soviet Union.

• What happens to European colonies? Is decolonization messier or more orderly than OTL? Does it take significantly longer?

These would still are decolonised but slower and later. Europeans would be able too keep more colonies than in OTL.