No Waterloo, Battle of Nations/Leipzig is Complete Coalition Victory

[Darth_Kiryan]

As we all know, Napoleon abdicated and was exiled to the Isle of Elba after the Battle of Leipzig, and returned for the Waterloo Campaign, and then lost before being exiled again and sent to St Heleana.

What if the Battle of Nations/Battle of Leipzig was a far more complete victory for the Coalition, perhaps more akin to the Battle of Sedan 60 years later with Napoleon III, complete destruction of the French Army, or just the capture of Napoleon and his army.

No 100 Days, no Waterloo Campaign.

The Battle of Leipzig is the end of everything.

Given the situation a year earlier, you still have the Congress of Vienna, but I would assume that the Continental powers or Austria, Russia and Prussia have more leeway, compared to the British and even Wellington a year earlier.
Would you still have Napoleon II? Or a Bourbon restoration?
Maybe an earlier unified Germany, if possible?

 

[Curtain Jerker]

If you still get Louis XVIII and especially Charles X in power post Nappy I can see it ending just as poorly for the Bourbons ITTL as OTL.

 

[funnyhat]

As we all know, Napoleon abdicated and was exiled to the Isle of Elba after the Battle of Leipzig,

Not right after. There was still the 1814 campaign.

 

[OxSpace]

Napoleon abdicated and was exiled to the Isle of Elba after the Battle of Leipzig

6 months after*

What if the Battle of Nations/Battle of Leipzig was a far more complete victory for the Coalition, perhaps more akin to the Battle of Sedan 60 years later with Napoleon III, complete destruction of the French Army, or just the capture of Napoleon and his army.

Possibility of the Frankfurt proposal going through. I'm not really a fan of the FP because Britain would never accept it, but Britain wasn't involved in Leipzig and if they capture/kill Napoleon then the French government would likely accept it. After all, it was Napoleon's determination that kept on fighting and the marshall's loyalties quickly dwindled as time went on and some grand triumph against the coalition was not happening. If the continental coalition agrees and so do the French of the FP, it leaves Britain in a very precarious position: do they continue the war to kick the French out of Belgium or reluctantly agree.

Given the situation a year earlier, you still have the Congress of Vienna, but I would assume that the Continental powers or Austria, Russia and Prussia have more leeway, compared to the British and even Wellington a year earlier.

Leeway? In what way? (no pun intended)

Would you still have Napoleon II? Or a Bourbon restoration?

Hard to say, before Fontainebleau, there were serious considerations of a regency for Napoleon II--but the presence of Napoleon was too much of a problem for it to be considered seriously. If Napoleon gets killed in battle, then Nappy II might be the next Emperor. It was really Talleyrand who heavily pushed for Bourbon restoration.

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

Not right after. There was still the 1814 campaign.

6 months after*

Ok, slight bit of semantics i suppose.
slight delay, but that was because Napoleon was fighting for another six months, here he is not.

Leeway? In what way? (no pun intended)

Leipzig is the end, Sorry, i'd guess they would be more decisive, maybe, in what happens next.

 

[OxSpace]

Leipzig is the end, Sorry, i'd guess they would be more decisive, maybe, in what happens next.

I meant like, what exactly do the Continental coalition have more leeway in what? Peace terms?

 

[Doctor Proctor]

Given the situation a year earlier, you still have the Congress of Vienna, but I would assume that the Continental powers or Austria, Russia and Prussia have more leeway, compared to the British and even Wellington a year earlier.

I'd assume that just like OTL that France would still be on equal footing with the other great powers even if their whole army got smashed. Shrewd Negotiators like Tallyrand were still around after all, no reason to assume they wouldn't be involved in the peace after the wars.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

Given that Metternich was hopeful that a lenient solution was possible-out of concern for both Russian expansionism and Prussian aggrandizement, I could surmise that the Frankfurt Proposals could be accepted if the French people were made aware of the terms before Napoleon was. Given the extortions, conscriptions and censorships they were subjected to, any peace which left France its 'natural frontiers' and only demanded modest reparations would be welcomed. If Napoleon still rejected the terms, then it would be on the French people (with Coalition assistance) to turn him out.

Napoleon II was already in the care of the Austrians by this point, so it would be plausible to establish a regency in which Marie Louise, as N II's mother, would hold court until her son came of age. Talleyrand would act as prime minister as he more or less did IOTL. Britain, while fuming over the fact the Belgian lands would be retained by France, would be unwilling to provoke a potential Continental backlash by going rogue in an attempt to liberate Belgium. They might try for a Belgium which is stripped of fortifications and otherwise demilitarized but as the rest of Europe would likely see this as yet another attempt by "Perfidious Albion" to spark a conflict, they'd just as likely reject the idea.

Given this, its doubtful that later Britain would willing join with Austria and France to oppose the Saxon designs of Prussia and Polish designs of Russia as IOTL. So in any event Britain could either remain neutral in the dispute, or see in it a chance to forcibly revise the French borders by aligning with Prussia and Russia.

EDIT: Metternich despied Napoleon I's recticence to peace. BUT, he feared the potential of the Russian hegemony replacing the French one as he already knew about Tsar Alexander I's plans for Poland. So by making the Proposals, Metternich hoped to create a balance on the Continent between French hegemony in the West (ignoring Britain, obviously), Hapsburg hegemony in Central Europe and Italy (likely even including Poland and the Balkans) and a Russian hegemony in the East.