No Jagiellonian inheritance; alternate division of Habsburg realms

[Fehérvári]

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha.

This is what I settled on so far:

Margaret of Austria, the then Governess of the Netherlands (Burgundy) died in 1530. IOTL she was succeeded in her position by Mary of Hungary, the widow of Louis II. It would be very unlikely for her to be given this same position ITTL, far away from her still living husband. So instead, Charles V would appoint his younger brother, Ferdinand as the Governor of the Netherlands. Considering that Ferdinand wouldn't be burdened by the crowns of Bohemia and Hungary, he would be an ideal candidate for the role.

Since Ferdinand would have to relocate to the Netherlands however, continuing to administer Austria would become difficult. A solution to this would be then Mary getting appointed Governess of Austria by either Ferdinand or by Charles V directly. This would allow Austrian resources to be efficiently directed in concert with those of Bohemia and Hungary against the Ottoman threat. This is bit of a tangent though.

What matters here is that Ferdinand establishes himself as the long-standing governor of Burgundy. His continued governance of the region then creates the incentive to keep the region in the control of his branch of the Habsburg family. As a result, the OTL match of Maximilian (Ferdinand's son) and Maria (Charles' son) ITTL includes the transfer of Burgundy as Maria's dowry.

So my question is: What kind of consequences could the Burgundian inheritance being part of not the Spanish, but of the Austrian Habsburgs' realm have? As a sidenote, let's assume Württemberg also remains in (Austrian) Habsburg hands, while Mary's (and Louis') governance over Austria is a one-off thing that doesn't alter Ferdinand's descendants inheriting the region.

So what do you think?

 

[isabella]

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha.

This is what I settled on so far:

Margaret of Austria, the then Governess of the Netherlands (Burgundy) died in 1530. IOTL she was succeeded in her position by Mary of Hungary, the widow of Louis II. It would be very unlikely for her to be given this same position ITTL, far away from her still living husband. So instead, Charles V would appoint his younger brother, Ferdinand as the Governor of the Netherlands. Considering that Ferdinand wouldn't be burdened by the crowns of Bohemia and Hungary, he would be an ideal candidate for the role.

Since Ferdinand would have to relocate to the Netherlands however, continuing to administer Austria would become difficult. A solution to this would be then Mary getting appointed Governess of Austria by either Ferdinand or by Charles V directly. This would allow Austrian resources to be efficiently directed in concert with those of Bohemia and Hungary against the Ottoman threat. This is bit of a tangent though.

What matters here is that Ferdinand establishes himself as the long-standing governor of Burgundy. His continued governance of the region then creates the incentive to keep the region in the control of his branch of the Habsburg family. As a result, the OTL match of Maximilian (Ferdinand's son) and Maria (Charles' son) ITTL includes the transfer of Burgundy as Maria's dowry.

So my question is: What kind of consequences could the Burgundian inheritance being part of not the Spanish, but of the Austrian Habsburgs' realm have? As a sidenote, let's assume Württemberg also remains in (Austrian) Habsburg hands, while Mary's (and Louis') governance over Austria is a one-off thing that doesn't alter Ferdinand's descendants inheriting the region.

So what do you think?

Ferdinand as Governor of the Netherlands is practically ASB. Charles would have no reason at all for name him to the job and likewise Ferdinand would have no reason for accept, specially if that implied leaving the rulership of his own lands to someone else.
If Charles had not available one sister between Mary, Eleanor and Isabella as replacement for their Aunt, he would name one of his nobles as Governor, not Ferdinand who is neither Burgundian or free to take the role.

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Without Habsburg Bohemia and Hungary, I think Charles might not want to leave Ferdinand as his successor in the empire- even if he continues to rule in Austria, that could be as a minor cadet line that remains non imperial. Especially the idea of depriving his son of burgundy wouldn’t sit right with him, and without Bohemia and Hungary can Ferdinand stand on his own as emperor?

The office of holy Roman emperor and king of spain might continue to be linked for at least another generation, which might spill onto the French wars of religion.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Ferdinand likely gets Württemberg and the Further Austrian realms here. Has a better shot at keeping them, so I don't think he's quite as powerless as @Madhukar_Shah makes out.

I agree with @isabella though that Ferdinand is an unlikely successor to Margaret as governor of the Netherlands. Far likelier, IMO, that Karl goes with a surviving Isabella (AFAIK her death was pretty butterfliable, just prevent her travelling through a storm while already ill) or with Eleonore. If neither is available, he might go with his half-uncle, the Bishop of Liege

 

[isabella]

Without Habsburg Bohemia and Hungary, I think Charles might not want to leave Ferdinand as his successor in the empire- even if he continues to rule in Austria, that could be as a minor cadet line that remains non imperial. Especially the idea of depriving his son of burgundy wouldn’t sit right with him, and without Bohemia and Hungary can Ferdinand stand on his own as emperor?

The office of holy Roman emperor and king of spain might continue to be linked for at least another generation, which might spill onto the French wars of religion.

Ferdinand‘s election is likely to happen as the Princes Electors do not wanted Charles‘ Spanish son as his successor and wanted Ferdinand‘s rule over the Empire being based not only on his role as Vicar for his brother but also on Ferdinand‘s status as elected heir of the Emperor.
Still Philip II inheriting the Netherlands is far from guaranteed as Charles V was a Burgundian first and feared who Philip was too Spanish for understanding Burgundy… In OTL Philip inherited them as they were his dowry for the wedding with Mary I of England and destined to Philip’s heirs by Mary (and that meant an union with England and not Spain) but without Philip’s marriage to Mary I is possible who Maria would get them. And that without counting the chance of the survival of a second son of Charles and Isabella as such child would be the natural heir for the Burgundian lands

 

[Fehérvári]

Ferdinand as Governor of the Netherlands is practically ASB.

Oh

Charles would have no reason at all for name him to the job

Wasn't Ferdinand already pretty much Charles' representative in the empire? Pushing the role of Governor of Burgundy on him would make sense from that POV. After all, without Bohemia, Austria by itself might not make him strong enough to be able to keep imperial affairs in check during Charles' absences. Burgundy might be enough though. As for Austria, putting it under Mary's governance just streamlines what would need to be done anyway: the dedication of Austrian resources against the Ottoman threat.

Ferdinand would have no reason for accept, specially if that implied leaving the rulership of his own lands to someone else.

I mean, Ferdinand wasn't particularly attached to Austria. He first set foot there only around 1519/'21. Furthermore, if it is him who appoints his sister (not Charles), then his continued sovereignty over Austria doesn't come into question either.

If Charles had not available one sister between Mary, Eleanor and Isabella as replacement for their Aunt, he would name one of his nobles as Governor, not Ferdinand who is neither Burgundian or free to take the role.

Alright, then Ferdinand stays in Austria and Charles appoints one of his (Dutch?) nobles to govern the Netherlands. Could such "native rule" have any notable effects? And what about Ferdinand? Could he fulfil his role as Charles' Vicar with only Austria and Württemberg to his name?

Without Habsburg Bohemia and Hungary, I think Charles might not want to leave Ferdinand as his successor in the empire- even if he continues to rule in Austria, that could be as a minor cadet line that remains non imperial.

I'm not sure Charles could get his son elected, tbh. For one, the German princes and estates might oppose the election of yet another (mostly) absent monarch. Secondly, Louis (who as King of Bohemia was an Elector) might also prefer to have his sister's husband (so Ferdinand) elected King of the Romans instead of Philip. Hell, if Louis decides to make a go for the Imperial title himself, then the election of Ferdinand could be seen as a compromise solution.

Especially the idea of depriving his son of burgundy wouldn’t sit right with him

I don't remember in which thread I read it, but Charles' supposedly didn't really want to leave the Netherlands in Philip's hand and only did so because of Philip's marriage to Mary of England. Prior to that, the area was supposed to serve as the dowry of Maria (Charles daughter) when she married Maximilian (Ferdinand's son). AFAIK. I might be wrong, but this is what inspired my OP.

and without Bohemia and Hungary can Ferdinand stand on his own as emperor?

His great-grandfather (Frederick III) somehow managed with less, so maybe?

Ferdinand likely gets Württemberg and the Further Austrian realms here.

Yes, that's how I imagined it.

If neither is available, he might go with his half-uncle, the Bishop of Liege

His wiki page doesn't really tell much, could his governorship have any unexpected consequences?

 

[isabella]

Oh

Wasn't Ferdinand already pretty much Charles' representative in the empire? Pushing the role of Governor of Burgundy on him would make sense from that POV. After all, without Bohemia, Austria by itself might not make him strong enough to be able to keep imperial affairs in check during Charles' absences. Burgundy might be enough though. As for Austria, putting it under Mary's governance just streamlines what would need to be done anyway: the dedication of Austrian resources against the Ottoman threat.

The Empire is one thing, Burgundy another. OTL Ferdinand WAS able to fulfill his role before getting Bohemia (and he had never truly control over Hungary).

I mean, Ferdinand wasn't particularly attached to Austria. He first set foot there only around 1519/'21. Furthermore, if it is him who appoints his sister (not Charles), then his continued sovereignty over Austria doesn't come into question either.

Austria became pretty much Ferdinand‘s home since his arrival there in 1518 or 1519 and in this years he had made great efforts in germanizing himself with good results.

Alright, then Ferdinand stays in Austria and Charles appoints one of his (Dutch?) nobles to govern the Netherlands. Could such "native rule" have any notable effects?

Yes, he would be a Dutch noble. Mary of Hungary also was a native of Burgundy so things would likely go as OTL until Charles V’s abdication or death

And what about Ferdinand? Could he fulfil his role as Charles' Vicar with only Austria and Württemberg to his name?

Without doubt. Frederick III and Maximilian I were effective Emperors with only Austria as their possession.

I'm not sure Charles could get his son elected, tbh. For one, the German princes and estates might oppose the election of yet another (mostly) absent monarch. Secondly, Louis (who as King of Bohemia was an Elector) might also prefer to have his sister's husband (so Ferdinand) elected King of the Romans instead of Philip. Hell, if Louis decides to make a go for the Imperial title himself, then the election of Ferdinand could be seen as a compromise solution.

Ferdinand would be the Habsburg candidate more acceptable to the Electors, who would still push his election as King of the Romans for preventing an eventual future election of the Spaniard Philip.

I don't remember in which thread I read it, but Charles' supposedly didn't really want to leave the Netherlands in Philip's hand and only did so because of Philip's marriage to Mary of England. Prior to that, the area was supposed to serve as the dowry of Maria (Charles daughter) when she married Maximilian (Ferdinand's son). AFAIK. I might be wrong, but this is what inspired my OP.

Charles V was pretty uncertain if leaving his beloved Netherlands to Philip or Maria (and Mary becoming Queen of England and marrying Philip was determinant in the final decision to give them to Philip) but they were never supposed to be Maria’s dowry to Maximilian (instead they were the proposed dowry of Maria for an eventual match with Charles d’Orleans, but he had chosen Anna and Milan over Maria and the Burgundian inheritance shortly before dying)

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Wasn't Ferdinand already pretty much Charles' representative in the empire? Pushing the role of Governor of Burgundy on him would make sense from that POV. After all, without Bohemia, Austria by itself might not make him strong enough to be able to keep imperial affairs in check during Charles' absences.

As far as I understand it, his establishment in Austria was a result of marriage negotiations- the Hungarians wanted him to have lands of his own in order to be eligible for Anne’s hand.

Had Charles wanted to leave him as representative in the empire, he could have simply made him governor of burgundy as well in 1521- and in fact when initially invested with Austria, Ferdinand wasn’t given the entirety of Habsburg possessions in the region, with half remaining with Charles. It took another year for him to get the rest of the Austrian possessions. His election as king of the Roman’s only happening a number of years after mohacs I think is also significant here- it meant that the fact he had a stronger base in the empire than Charles descendants was pretty much a fait accompli.

His great-grandfather (Frederick III) somehow managed with less, so maybe?

Slightly different political expectations- now it’s very clearly the situation that the emperor is supposed to be supporting themselves and their military capacity primarily through their own resources, and the requirements for that have increased with the empire taking on a more military footing to fight the Turks. Still Austria and burgundy are probably enough for that, even without Bohemia.

In the case that Ferdinand doesn’t get burgundy, it’s probably down to Philip or Louis of Hungary. At the time of pod, Philip hasn’t been born yet, so Charles might have him raised in burgundy and Spain to groom him for both or focus on an imperial role for him, leaving spain more in the hands of its Cortes.

 

[Fehérvári]

Made a new thread:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/no-jagiellonian-inheritance-effects-in-the-empire-and-beyond.548819/

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Just had a brainwave (or a brainfart). When Karl sent Ferdinand from Spain, he sent him back via Burgundy and the court of their aunt Margaret. Apparently Marge was struck by the resemblance between Ferdi and his late father. If she were to "keep" her nephew around to train him, or to have a "soft spot", is it possible that she could vouch for Ferdi being appointed by Karl? Even his further Austrian/Württemberg possessions were close enough to the Low Countries that it's not impossible for him to "commute" between the two.

 

[Nuraghe]

Just had a brainwave (or a brainfart). When Karl sent Ferdinand from Spain, he sent him back via Burgundy and the court of their aunt Margaret. Apparently Marge was struck by the resemblance between Ferdi and his late father. If she were to "keep" her nephew around to train him, or to have a "soft spot", is it possible that she could vouch for Ferdi being appointed by Karl? Even his further Austrian/Württemberg possessions were close enough to the Low Countries that it's not impossible for him to "commute" between the two.

actually it can work, given that the ability to keep Wurttemberg in Habsburg hands creates a second useful route to connect Italy to Burgundy, this was also one of the reasons why Otl Ferdinand was very dissatisfied that Charles had not given him back control of duchy post First Smalkandick war, Charles had certainly stated that the immense human and economic material that Ferdinand was forced to divert to the border with the Turks compromised his future ability to maintain the place, in the event of a new war with the Protestant party, but if Louis II survives, the resources that will be diverted to the East will be quantitatively reduced compared to Otl, so it is possible that in the long run Wurttemberg will be incorporated into the Archduchy of Austria, furthermore, this allows for firmer control over the Swabian circle, as well as greater influence on Trier, making it easier to quickly and jointly defend the 3 episcopal electorates in the event of conflict, Now that I think about it, a stronger Ferdinand in his early years might be able to exploit the Peasants' War of 1524 - 1526 to his advantage ( but which had already unofficially started after the Diet of Worms ), as well as trying to create divisions in the Protestant front, as OTL wanted to do during the Peace of Augsburg, using the possibility of recognizing the Calvinists and inviting them to the negotiating table, but this plan could not be effectively implemented for two reasons, the hostility of the Lutheran princes ( who threatened further conflict, which the Habsburgs could not afford ) and an unlikely agreement with their Catholic counterparts ( cleverly mediated by Saxony ), agreement which forced the Habsburgs to further compromise with the Lutheran faction ( which none of them wanted, neither Charles nor Ferdinand, since they believed that the princes would take advantage of this to make demands that would bind the Emperor's power in the future, which which actually happened ) this might have been different if Charles had again beaten the princes in battle, allowing to Ferdi to be in a better position to negotiate, but given that in this scenario it is proposed that the tragic conditions ( Mohacs ) that led to the Little War ( 1530 - 1552 ) do not exist, this means freeing up men who can be used elsewhere, then everything can still be at stake

 

[raharris1973]

What was the real size of Habsburg Wurttemburg at this time? I always thought that the Wurttemburg of the classic size that got merged into the 2nd Reich of 1871 was a pretty new creation of the CoV at that particular size and shape, assembled from various much smaller parts.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

What was the real size of Habsburg Wurttemburg at this time? I always thought that the Wurttemburg of the classic size that got merged into the 2nd Reich of 1871 was a pretty new creation of the CoV at that particular size and shape, assembled from various much smaller parts.

the entire duchy/county as it then existed. It had been the estates that had sold it to the Habsburgs. So that was the county of Württemberg more the counties of Calw, Tübingen, Urach and Vaihingen, the baronies of Teck and Heidenheim. Plus the lands that the house of Württemberg had picked up on the other side of the Rhine, like the county of Mömpelgard (Montbéliard) and Frankenberg (Franquemont)

^and here's the Further Austrian Possessions that Ferdinand would've had^