No Hitler & the butterflies

[Dan]

A question has been percolating through m mind recently, what would Germany look like without Hitler?
So assume that Hitler dies in the first was of the 1918 flu epidemic while in Hospital for treatment for his gassing injuries. He's just another dead Gefreiter at this point, one among millions.
There are a number of fixed events that are likely to occur, over which he had no control or influence, such as the Franco Belgian occupation of the Ruhr, German hyperinflation, the Wall Street Crash, The Dawes Plan, the Young Plan, the rise of Mussolini and Stalin, the actions of the Soviets in Ukraine and the Baltic etc. I would expect these to still occur and shape the world as we know it.

There are other events, such as the rebranding and reorientation of the German Workers Party to the NDASP, the Bierhalle Putsche, that book, and the Nazi's rise to power are either solely down to Hitler or were greatly influenced by him to the extent that without him, I don't see them happening.

So how would Germany evolve without Hitler and the Nazis as we know them? How would the Weimar Republic evolve? How would, without the lust for territory of Hitler and the Nazis, the rest of Europe evolve? Do we even have a Second World War at another point in time? If so, in what shape?

 

[thevaliant]

People HAVE done this before, and quite some time back:

The Drowned Baby Timeline

As an aid to those who may be unfamiliar with the Drowned Baby Timeline, I present a brief synopsis and a list of blog posts. The Point-of...

johnnypez9.blogspot.com

(My main problem with DBTL is that its both clearly a bit of a Poland-wank, and pretty much gives up any pretence of being a serious timeline when it has Enoch Powell being the Bionic Man in the 1960s - ie, it belongs in ASB. However, like many SHWI timelines at the time, the author was well liked and basically got a free pass as the timeline slowly decendend into ASB. It also jumps around a lot and often skips over how events might've happened. It goes from 1922 to 1933 to 1936 pretty darn quickly without any detail of how Ernest Rohm manages to take over Germany and how he manages to screw it up badly enough for Poland to single handedly defeat Germany.)

 

[Resurgam]

I know this off-topic but "Hitler & the Butterflies" would be an awesome band name.

 

[Dan]

It goes from 1922 to 1933 to 1936 pretty darn quickly without any detail of how Ernest Rohm manages to take over Germany

Unfortunately, it's the alternative period between 1922 and 1940 that particularly interests me.

 

[Resurgam]

So how would Germany evolve without Hitler and the Nazis as we know them?

Probably into some kind of far-left or far-right dictatorship. My money would be on the far-right, as, just like OTL big business and the upper classes would throw in with whomever is opposed to communism.

How would the Weimar Republic evolve?

It would stagger along until the above happens. There was no great love for Weimar, or democracy itself, among the German people.

How would, without the lust for territory of Hitler and the Nazis, the rest of Europe evolve?

Really tough to say. It would depend on what kind of government arises in Germany and the relationship it decides to have with its neighbors.

Do we even have a Second World War at another point in time?

You'd still have the Pacific War, which considering the territory and nations involved could be called a "world" war.

If so, in what shape?

Could be anything from the Soviets deciding to spread the Revolution to the fascist nations needing elbow room. Without knowing how Germany is, it's hard to say.

 

[Captain Homicide]

The 20th century would almost certainly be unrecognizable.

 

[TonyA]

I know this off-topic but "Hitler & the Butterflies" would be an awesome band name.

My thought, exactly, when I saw the thread name. Probably be "techno", though...

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

The options for Germany are probably:
1: Communist takeover,
2: Descent into Civil War and possible disintegration into constituent states, and
3: Dictatorship that is right-wing but substantially less evil than OTL's Nazis

In any of these scenarios, Germany is going to pursue a less expansionist and militaristic foreign policy than IOTL, so it will be less threatening to its neighbors and the League of Nations system will probably be more successful.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The options for Germany are probably:
1: Communist takeover,
2: Descent into Civil War and possible disintegration into constituent states, and
3: Dictatorship that is right-wing but substantially less evil than OTL's Nazis

In any of these scenarios, Germany is going to pursue a less expansionist and militaristic foreign policy than IOTL...

I wouldn't be sure about that in #1. Communist Germany would be a very powerful state, in the grip of a messianic ideology, and probably allied with the powerful (and resource-rich) USSR. It would be hard to exceed Nazi Germany's expansionism and militarism, but matching it seems distinctly possible.

 

[Socrates]

I wouldn't be sure about that in #1. Communist Germany would be a very powerful state, in the grip of a messianic ideology, and probably allied with the powerful (and resource-rich) USSR. It would be hard to exceed Nazi Germany's expansionism and militarism, but matching it seems distinctly possible.

Does Germany really have the socioeconomic structure for communism to succeed in? Has any society with a large middle class and a diverse business elite gone communist?

 

[Resurgam]

Does Germany really have the socioeconomic structure for communism to succeed in? Has any society with a large middle class and a diverse business elite gone communist?

Half of Germany itself did, of course. Of course, it had... help in this...

 

[Lusitania]

Does Germany really have the socioeconomic structure for communism to succeed in? Has any society with a large middle class and a diverse business elite gone communist?

From what I read it was the support of the upper class and business plus American $ that let Hitler cement his control over Germany from 1932-1938. Any communist attempt would have neither of those factors.

 

[Thomas Jefferson]

I wouldn't be sure about that in #1. Communist Germany would be a very powerful state, in the grip of a messianic ideology, and probably allied with the powerful (and resource-rich) USSR. It would be hard to exceed Nazi Germany's expansionism and militarism, but matching it seems distinctly possible.

I assumed that a Communist Germany would be more of a satellite of the USSR than an ally with equal standing, so the USSR would be seen as the greater threat and the worry among other European states would be about subversion/support for domestic Communist parties more than military aggression.

 

[Lusitania]

I assumed that a Communist Germany would be more of a satellite of the USSR than an ally with equal standing, so the USSR would be seen as the greater threat and the worry among other European states would be about subversion/support for domestic Communist parties more than military aggression.

Yeah I not seeing the communist Germany being a satellite or subordinate of Soviets unless defeated. The Germans and Russians been adversaries way before Hitler. So unless Germany about to be defeated by West they not succumb to soviet domination. Heck many in Germany would prefer west to Soviets regardless of political ideology.

 

[Garrison]

You'd still have the Pacific War, which considering the territory and nations involved could be called a "world" war.

Would you though? If the British aren't pinned down in Europe and France isn't overrun will even the Japanese be that crazy?

On the bigger picture if Hitler is out of the picture and the Great Depression still happens then I figure the Military and the industrialists will find some other right wing authoritarian group to rally around. I don't think the communists stand a chance.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

I assumed that a Communist Germany would be more of a satellite of the USSR than an ally with equal standing, so the USSR would be seen as the greater threat and the worry among other European states would be about subversion/support for domestic Communist parties more than military aggression.

Constantine Fitzgibbon was a prominent British intellectual in the 1950s and 1960s. He wrote When the Kissing Had to Stop, a novel about a hypothetical Soviet occupation of Britain. I have his book Random Thoughts of a Fascist Hyena (as he was labeled in the Communist press). Fitzgibbon spent some time in Germany in the 1930s (studying Marxism, oddly). One night in a corner tavern, he met a young SS officer in a talkative mood. The man had visited the USSR, and been very impressed by Soviet industrial and military achievements. In fact, he said it was a shame Germany had not gone Communist. Fitzgibbon was astonished. But the Nazi said that economic theories were for intellectuals - power was what really mattered. Communist Germany would combine with the USSR, and would naturally be the dominant partner, with all the resources of Russia at its disposal: Morgen die ganze welt. ("Tomorrow, the whole world.")

 

[Coley]

I read long ago a quote from some Soviet provocateur, that the German communists were so uptight and proper in the 20s,30s, that they had membership cards and meticulous records. Don't see a communist Germany being anything more than a chaotic unstable puppet of USSR. Goebbels could spew but didn't have Hitler's flair or cult,maybe another right winger would emerge but everything I've read says the Rohm scared the military and the big shots in business and his SA running wild put off the middle class.

 

[Resurgam]

Would you though? If the British aren't pinned down in Europe and France isn't overrun will even the Japanese be that crazy?

I think the Japanese will eventually go south/empire building. At a certain point, the coiled spring will, well, spring.

On the bigger picture if Hitler is out of the picture and the Great Depression still happens then I figure the Military and the industrialists will find some other right wing authoritarian group to rally around. I don't think the communists stand a chance.

To me, this is the most likely outcome in a nutshell.

 

[Socrates]

Half of Germany itself did, of course. Of course, it had... help in this...

Well, exactly. It takes an invading army to do it. I can't see communists taking over Germany. It seems to mainly happen in countries with a large peasantry and recent industrialization. Neither apply in the German case.

 

[Resurgam]

Well, exactly. It takes an invading army to do it. I can't see communists taking over Germany. It seems to mainly happen in countries with a large peasantry and recent industrialization. Neither apply in the German case.

I think the bigger issue is, as we saw in Germany in the 1930s, there are a lot of people with a vested interest in the dictatorship not being Communist.

So, yeah, Weimar's still toast, likely right-wing again.