Next Carrier Battle after Japanese Victory at Midway

[Tom_B]

The long term consequences of a Japanese victory at Midway comes up periodically with their being an overwhelming consensus that Japan still loses. I am not interested in revisiting that per se. Instead I am curious about people's speculation as to when and where the next carrier vs carrier battle in TTL would occur, what carriers and admirals would be involved and the likely outcome.

To be clear the Japanese victory I am postulating has them sinking Enterprise, Yorktown and Hornet but losing Kaga with Akagi badly damaged and heavy aircraft losses. A landing on Midway Atoll fails with severe casualties.

 

[Questerr]

Is there really any way to predict this?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

I'm assuming near the Solomon Islands or New Guinea. The Japanese will probably try to have another go at Port Moresby. But that's only if the US Navy is willing to engage the Japanese navy while having less carriers.

The issue is how long will the American navy wait until deciding to show up for round two. If they decide to wait until they outnumber the Japanese carriers, then they will probably abandon the Southeast Asia offensive campaigns and go straight for the Central Pacific.

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Between Midway and September, 1945 the US Navy commissioned 18 Essex class, 9 Independence class and 70 escort carriers so at some point the Americans would sail out. The question is whether the change of two fewer American and two more Japanese carriers would have caused the Americans to abandon the Guadalcanal landings. It was sort of a then or not for a long time choice as a functioning Japanese airbase would have required probably the equivalent of the Gilbert Island force of 6 fleet carriers, 6 Independence lass carriers and 8 escort carriers. So the delay would have been at least a year. Remember that maintaining the supply line to Australia was the Allies number 1 priority in 1942 so I think that Guadalcanal would have proceeded. You postulate that Sōryū and Hiryū survive Midway but what about their air groups? If the air groups need to be rebuilt I don't see much difference from the actual campaign. Remember it was a lucky submarine shot that got the Wasp. Take that out of the equation in your alternative narrative and the battles still stack up about the same. If one of Sōryū or Hiryū is ready I think the Battle of the Eastern Solomons gets a little more dicey. Both even more chance of a Japanese victory--withdrawal or surrender of Guadalcanal. As to command I would think that either Fitch or Towers would have commanded the Americans. Assuming he was not among the causalities I would see Nagumo still in charge. He survived the loss of four carriers in exchange for one so two in exchange for three would have looked pretty good.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The long term consequences of a Japanese victory at Midway comes up periodically with their being an overwhelming consensus that Japan still loses. I am not interested in revisiting that per se. Instead I am curious about people's speculation as to when and where the next carrier vs carrier battle in TTL would occur, what carriers and admirals would be involved and the likely outcome.

To be clear the Japanese victory I am postulating has them sinking Enterprise, Yorktown and Hornet but losing Kaga with Akagi badly damaged and heavy aircraft losses. A landing on Midway Atoll fails with severe casualties.

The Airgroups will have to be rebuilt and very likely the remaining carriers given some serious TLC as they had been hard used

It would take serveral months at best to incorporate replacements to their airgroups - it took Zuikaku the best part of 3 months or so to rebuild her air group before the Battle of Eastern Solomans due to the IJN method of tying airgroup personnel to a carrier not purely to the Squadron which could move between ships as required.

So its likely that rebuilding additional losses from Midway will take even longer to replace possibly keeping one or 2 of the decks out of action till the last Quarter of 42

So Solomans is unlikley to be fought as OTL given the lack of USN flat tops and the IJN might instead kick back and give their hard worked fleet some serious TLC - but that is not in their DNA - expect some outlandish complex plan to make use (or further misuse) of the IJNs crown jewels as only they could.

 

[CV12Hornet]

The obvious answer is something going on with Operation FS. With Akagi being repaired and Kaga on the bottom, the Japanese can commit Soryu, Hiryu, Shokaku, and Zuikaku as the 1st Air Fleet, as was planned for FS, potentially with Ryujo and Zuiho attached per the OTL post-Midway reorganization.

On the Allied side, Saratoga and Wasp remain on hand for the US, and they'll be fairly howling for a British carrier to help out. Indomitable gets bombed in August during Operation Pedestal, which means she would be unavailable to any attempt to counter FS. Victorious and Formidable need to remain in Atlantic waters, both to support Torch and then to support British forces in home waters. Illustrious, however, is in the Eastern Fleet and it shouldn't be hard to convince the Brits that her presence in the Pacific would do more good for keeping the Indian Ocean safe than remaining in Ceylon.

While it'll take time to get Illustrious to the front and up to speed, the Japanese as noted need to rebuild the air groups for Soryu and Hiryu and do some refits. OTL they delayed FS until September and are likely to do so again. They'll also want to get the Guadalcanal airfield up and running.

This situation holds the potential for Saratoga, Wasp, and Illustrious to do battle with the aforementioned Japanese carriers, likely during the Fiji section of the operation.

~o~
​

The other option is for the Japanese to cancel FS and for the US to wait until they have sufficient Essex and Independence-class carriers to go on a general offensive. As IOTL this is going to be in November 1943 - Saratoga, Wasp, and four Essex-class and six Independence-class for the US, the Shokaku, Soryu, and Hiyo classes along with Akagi and light carriers Ryuho, Ryujo, and Zuiho. 12 to 10, and 659 aircraft to 528. Given the better force ratio and much fewer losses with no Guadalcanal campaign I expect the Japanese to contest the US wherever the offensive lands.

 

[Tom_B]

You postulate that Sōryū and Hiryū survive Midway but what about their air groups? If the air groups need to be rebuilt I don't see much difference from the actual campaign. Remember it was a lucky submarine shot that got the Wasp. Take that out of the equation in your alternative narrative and the battles still stack up about the same. If one of Sōryū or Hiryū is ready I think the Battle of the Eastern Solomons gets a little more dicey. Both even more chance of a Japanese victory--withdrawal or surrender of Guadalcanal. As to command I would think that either Fitch or Towers would have commanded the Americans. Assuming he was not among the causalities I would see Nagumo still in charge. He survived the loss of four carriers in exchange for one so two in exchange for three would have looked pretty good.

I did postulate "heavy aircraft losses" However Nimitz would have only a rough guess as to their extent. Furthermore he cannot completely rule out the Japanese reassigning aircraft to a different carrier.

 

[Tom_B]

Some interesting replies. Is there general agreement that Ranger remains in Atlantic Fleet?

 

[Spencersj345.346]

I still don't get how the Japanese even sink Hornet or Enterprise since ya know they never spotted them at all in otl and their scouting sucked so them getting out alive is something I'd give good odds on

 

[Airborne2001]

Well, assuming that the Guadalcanal landings still proceed, both Wasp and Saratoga took hits. Wasp was sunk, but remember that Saratoga was damaged and could not return until late 1942. This means that Japan can win Guadalcanal with no battle of the Santa Cruz to cause Japan to not send those vital supplies in late 1942. A carrier battle would come, (with the help of the Illustrious when Saratoga was ready) during early 1943. This would most likely be during Operation FS.

 

[Dorknought]

Probably 'the 2nd battle of Midway' sometime in August 1942 when Shokaku is back in service and assuming that Akagi could also be put back in service at this time. After the Doolittle Raid, the IJN had IJA backing to target Hawaii as carriers based there were a threat to the heart of the empire. They will keep trying on 'Eastern Operation' and the need to push south will go in the face of mounting USN losses being able to contest the area and that the IJN/IJA can't do both FS and Hawaii.

For the IJN to have won at '1st Midway' they would have to have done things radically different, ie, full KB (all 6 carriers), not be late, Main Body in close support, no Aleutians, better scouting etc.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Probably 'the 2nd battle of Midway' sometime in August 1942 when Shokaku is back in service and assuming that Akagi could also be put back in service at this time.

There won't be a "2nd battle of Midway", unless Japan has captured some of the refineries in the DEI intact. The first battle blew a massive hole in their fuel stockpiles, and if they physically have enough to pull a second attempt off, which is not a sure thing, they certainly can't do that and then follow it up with anything meaningful.
(I gave some numbers in this post a little while ago: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/could-japan-have-maltad-midway.496602/#post-21049970 )

If the IJN moves their carriers south shortly after Midway, they can potentially cause trouble in the Solomons or New Guinea, although I'm not sure the long term impact of this would be very significant - the USN suffered losses throughout the OTL Guadalcanal campaign that are probably no worse than anything they could realistically lose at Midway - if Watchtower gets chopped those battles won't happen, but the troops will doubtless get landed somewhere else before long.

FS will be messy if it gets attempted at all - the Japanese had very little serious planning written up for the operation, and a lot of what they did simply wasn't physically possible given the logistic constraints they were operating under (hence in my TL about it, a three month gap between invading the New Hebrides and New Caledonia - in the plans they were supposed to be almost simultaneous!). The troops also, were insufficient (9000 men - half of which was the force used at Midway OTL, and ITTL has been killed off!). If FS starts in July (a best-case if they start planning for it immediately after Coral Sea), some of the islands they want to take won't yet be properly garrisoned. Starting in September, which is the earliest they can do if they only commit to it after June 4, means every potential target has 15-25k Americans and Allies waiting to chop the invaders to pieces. Could they win a naval battle there, with the KB intact? Sure. Wouldn't matter much in the long run.

Alternatively, the fleet waits in port until 1944. Then you get Philippine Sea, and we know how that turned out...

- BNC

 

[Puzzle]

Would the US change to a more asymmetric strategy and just flood the pacific with subs? The carrier battles are dramatic, but mining and torpedoing everything flying the Japanese flag might be seen as a more certain strategy in the wake of disastrous defeat.

 

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Would the US change to a more asymmetric strategy and just flood the pacific with subs? The carrier battles are dramatic, but mining and torpedoing everything flying the Japanese flag might be seen as a more certain strategy in the wake of disastrous defeat.

Nah, several Essexes were already part way through construction by the time of Midway, and there's not really a good reason to cancel them. Also, to actually defeat Japan, you're going to have to occupy at least some of the islands it captured. Carriers are useful for that task, subs not so much.

Edit: might add here that "more" subs is certainly possible, but the US had plenty of them already (and we can look to the U-boats to see how effective a pure "starve them out" strategy is). Wouldn't matter in any meaningful way.

- BNC

 

[Bob in Pittsburgh]

Would the US change to a more asymmetric strategy and just flood the pacific with subs? The carrier battles are dramatic, but mining and torpedoing everything flying the Japanese flag might be seen as a more certain strategy in the wake of disastrous defeat.

Remember that the US submarine offensive was very ineffective during 1942.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Nah, several Essexes were already part way through construction by the time of Midway, and there's not really a good reason to cancel them. Also, to actually defeat Japan, you're going to have to occupy at least some of the islands it captured. Carriers are useful for that task, subs not so much.

Edit: might add here that "more" subs is certainly possible, but the US had plenty of them already (and we can look to the U-boats to see how effective a pure "starve them out" strategy is). Wouldn't matter in any meaningful way.

- BNC

1943 sees 4 Essex and 9 Independence class light carriers and god knows how many escort carriers commissioned along with more planes than Japan builds in the entire war!

I don't think that the Japanese commission any carriers during this time - so whatever advantage they might enjoy for the rest of 1942 and early 43 is rapidly lost.

 

[CV12Hornet]

1943 sees 4 Essex and 9 Independence class light carriers and god knows how many escort carriers commissioned along with more planes than Japan builds in the entire war!

I don't think that the Japanese commission any carriers during this time - so whatever advantage they might enjoy for the rest of 1942 and early 43 is rapidly lost.

Ryuho in late '42, Chiyoda and Chitose in November and December, respectively. Taiho only arrives in March '44.