Miscellaneous >1900 (Alternate) History Thread
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AHC: Franco-British Cold War dominates the 20th C? Complete with a nuclear arms race at some point.
ireally want to know what would have happened if the UK gave Hong Kong to the Republic of China?
That would require the British Government to have decided to re-recognize the ROC instead of the PRC as "the real China" so it is likely that the relationship will be lousy to begin with.
So Hong Kong is actually not worth that much anymore because PRC cuts all economic ties with HK. HK's value lay in its position as an intermediary between PRC and the rest of the world. So this no longer exists and HK is impoverished.
Lots of Chinese move from HK to the UK, which is not a happy thing according to the UK's POV at all. Moment when the UK decides to "get rid of the problem" by transferring HK to ROC.
ROC is hesitant to accept this hot potato because they know it will put them on an immediate collision course with PRC even if their relations are improving, and they have no means to defend HK if PRC decides to invade anyway.
The UK alone does not have the means to pressure ROC, so we will assume that the USA pressures ROC to accept this "gift". PRC goes into a rage and demands that Hong Kong be returned to them, but ROC, USA and UK say "No".
PRC then shuts off HK's water taps, causing more immigration out of HK.
The USA tries to make noise and align world public opinion against PRC for "thirsty killing poor Hong Kongers" but it turns out that nobody gives a damn about this issue, so the protests are ignored.
Many countries, including the PRC, call the US bluff and point to the horrendous record of US military interventions to argue why the US is in no position to lecture anyone about anything.
As previously happened in Tibet, no one will go beyond making noise about it, because business with PRC is valued much more than what happens to the people of HK.
The trade previously done by HK moves to Macao (Portugal was easier to convince to give Macao to PRC) and now it is Macao, and not HK, the great commercial city of the region.
Meanwhile HK languishes in poverty and its remaining inhabitants curse the UK and ROC with hate and rage for getting them into such a mess.
I doubt it, because Macao cannot replace Hong Kong and the PRC knows this.
Why not? all PRC have to do is move the business there. Hong Kong is not particularly special and superior. And if that wouldn't work anyway because people would refuse to trade through Macao, then the problem isn't that Hong Kong was particularly suitable.
That's quite simple. Macao has a very bad reputation, is much smaller and has simply not the infrastructure Hong Kong has. Replacing Hong Kong with Macao would not be sensible and profitable. An BTW the PRC was not interesting in Macao in OTL, despite the fact that the people of Macao wanted to join the PRC.
Likely it would be quite similar. I could image that politicly they region likely remains a trustee territory. It would gain more investment from American companies and the US millitary may have a slightly greater presence. It also might insensitive more American tourism to the islands but IOT we already had the compact of free association which makes travel very easy so it is debatable if it would make much of an impact.
Could there have been a chance for the KMT to defeat the CCP, at least forcing a divided country much like Korea and later Vietnam with Manchuria being Communist and the rest of China being KMT and, if not, could a second Chinese Civil War have emerged if, in 1971, Lin Biao succeeded in his coup and was able to get a sizable chunk of the PLA to go to war against the PRC?
The British might move to occupy it with a token force, whilst keeping in communications with the United States to coordinate the time for them to ideally swoop in and take whatever units place so they could be utilized elsewhere in the British Empire.
Any France which retains Haiti would be very different to its OTL counterpart. Petain and De Gaulle are probably not born ITTL. With a major presence in a lucrative Caribbean sugar island they have less impetus to sell Louisiana to the US and abandon their claims in the New World.
As others have pointed out, how exactly are the French retaining Haiti? Successful suppression of the slave uprising? Successful LeClerc expedition? Re-conquest in the 1820s when Boyer digs in his heels over reparations?
I can imagine increased Franco-American tensions in the event of this POD. A highly militarised border on Hispaniola. Maybe continuing and stranger Anti-Catholic sentiment in the US.
With a POD in the 1920s would it be possible for Subhas Chandra Bose to launch a rebellion in India during WWII? I’m thinking perhaps a stronger Japanese thrust towards Imphal coupled with Bose not wasting his time in Europe and instead spending his time in Japan in the period of his exile in the 30s?
Would anyone be down to help me with a TL that has Morgenthau become President on July 1st, 1945 following a heart attack by Truman, leading to President Disney and Vice President William Knowland while Senator William Jenner becomes a major leading figure in the Republican Party, all while a dystopia happens across the world, including Germany and the USSR?
I would say that this means the pod probably has to go back a decade or so, where Germany adopts an East First Strategy instead of a West First. In that scenario, Austria Hungary doesn't need to involve itself as France will only have thousands of losses against Germany and Russia collapsing to Italy while Germany can show Italy the success against the Entente. I can't see the UK being neutral for too long, too many interests in keeping Germany from becoming the top dog of Europe, so they likely get involved as Russia is on the brink of collapse sometime in 1916. Following that, Germany could then schleiffen plan France and probably get Italy in before the UK joins. War likely ends in 1918 still but with an overwhelming CP Victory in Europe and the Colonies being relatively untouched.
How would France turn out in this tml? Would it turn reactionary or socialist?
Would the Turks, Bulgarians, and other Balkan nations join in the fray?
it would likely try to go socialist but Germany, UK, Italy, and USA quashes it before it can become a major problem. The soviets are very much stuck where they are and the Germans have a decent buffer against them but for France, in western europe directly across the rhine, a socialist state is unacceptable. I an see France's colonies outside of Algeria being divided and carved up between Germany, the UK, and Italy and maybe a constitutional monarchy being put in power (not a german one, but perhaps Prince Philippe, great-grandson of Louis Philippe I, could've been put in power as the monarch of France, not as a puppet, but as an active stabilizing force more than the ruined Republic that lost twice to Germany in 40 years.
Would this alt France seek revenge against the Germans who humiliated them?