Whenever people talk about Sweden winning the Great Northern War, they talk about either the immediate effects or the fact that unless something changed, Sweden would never remain a true great power long-term. However, I want to look at the medium-term in this thread.
So first off, what is the most plausible way Sweden could have won the war? Would it be Peter getting killed at Narva? Charles taking command at Poltava? Charles going after Russia instead of Saxony after Narva? Brandenburg joining the war and tying down Saxony, allowing Sweden to focus on Russia?
From there, what would a likely peace treaty look like? Poland-Lithuania will probably end up being forcibly alligned with Sweden, for a start. What happens to Norway? Does Sweden take it from Denmark?
With Sweden remaining a great power, does it end up intervening in the War of the Spanish Succession, assuming the GNW ends before it? If so, what effects does that have? I don't think the War of the Polish Succession would happen, but the War of Austrian Succession might. Would Sweden join that war?
If the Seven Years War still breaks out around the same time, I could see Prussia and Russia actually becoming allies, along with Britain, assuming the Diplomatic Revolution still happens. Sweden and Poland-Lithuania would probably join Austria and France, as Sweden already joined in OTL and would be wary of Prussian designs on Poland like Russia was in OTL.
Perhaps most importantly, what is most likely to happen to the American and thus French Revolutions? Would there still be an expansionist French Republic? Napoleon would almost certainly be butterflied away. What does that do for military doctrine? What happens to the Ancien Regime across Europe without Napoleon to bulldoze it down?
So first off, what is the most plausible way Sweden could have won the war? Would it be Peter getting killed at Narva? Charles taking command at Poltava? Charles going after Russia instead of Saxony after Narva? Brandenburg joining the war and tying down Saxony, allowing Sweden to focus on Russia?
From there, what would a likely peace treaty look like? Poland-Lithuania will probably end up being forcibly alligned with Sweden, for a start. What happens to Norway? Does Sweden take it from Denmark?
With Sweden remaining a great power, does it end up intervening in the War of the Spanish Succession, assuming the GNW ends before it? If so, what effects does that have? I don't think the War of the Polish Succession would happen, but the War of Austrian Succession might. Would Sweden join that war?
If the Seven Years War still breaks out around the same time, I could see Prussia and Russia actually becoming allies, along with Britain, assuming the Diplomatic Revolution still happens. Sweden and Poland-Lithuania would probably join Austria and France, as Sweden already joined in OTL and would be wary of Prussian designs on Poland like Russia was in OTL.
Perhaps most importantly, what is most likely to happen to the American and thus French Revolutions? Would there still be an expansionist French Republic? Napoleon would almost certainly be butterflied away. What does that do for military doctrine? What happens to the Ancien Regime across Europe without Napoleon to bulldoze it down?