Kyujo Incident succeeds, likeliness of Soviet Japanese Occupation Zone?

Kibbutznik

The Kyujo Incident was an attempted house arrest on Emperor Hirohito to prevent Japan's surrender after the bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So,

a) What's the likeliness of the coup succeeding, and what variables are necessary for it to succeed?

b) For how long would a successful coup delay Japan's surrender?

c) Would this delay be enough for the Soviet's to invade Japan and occupy a section of the Japanese home islands?
 

jahenders

Banned
Suvareshkin said:
The Kyujo Incident was an attempted house arrest on Emperor Hirohito to prevent Japan's surrender after the bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So,

a) What's the likeliness of the coup succeeding, and what variables are necessary for it to succeed?

b) For how long would a successful coup delay Japan's surrender?

c) Would this delay be enough for the Soviet's to invade Japan and occupy a section of the Japanese home islands?
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I don't think the coup succeeding (and not being overturned soon) was too likely. If it did succeed it would probably delay surrender 5-9 months.

During that time the Soviets would solidify holds in various places in Asia (Korea, Manchuria, etc). By that point, the W Allies would launch Olympic to invade Southern Kyushu (notionally starting in Nov 45).

If that succeeds, that will likely prompt Japanese surrender.

If not, the allies will keep on bombing elsewhere as they solidify their hold there and build/fix airbases. Then they'll launch the larger Coronet invasion in the Spring if the Japanese still haven't surrendered and the annihilation will begin.

The Russians would try to be ready to do a small invasion of Hokkaido when the allies launch Coronet. By Spring of 46, they could probably launch an effective, if limited, invasion there.

So, if the Japanese hold out until mid-1946, the Russians may hold Northern Hokkaido. However, I think it's very likely that the Japanese will surrender before then.
 

m0585

The Soviets did not have the capability to launch an amphibious invasion of Japan in the short term, as jahenders correctly points out. Maybe if the war drags out into the Spring of 1946, the Soviets could land a "small force" (no larger than division size). What's more likely is that Olympic is causing too many casualties amongst U.S. troops, so that U.S. offers to transport Soviet troops for an attack in the north using U.S. amphibious ships. Whether Truman would offer, or Stalin would accept is a matter of debate.
 
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