Italy goes Allied

Magnum

This is sort of a spin-off from an idea I had a while back. Anyway, would be curious to know how you guys see the situation developing:

  1. Mussolini dies in early 1940, just before the invasion of Norway. There is a power struggle within the fascist party for control
  2. Germany screws up in Norway as a large part of the fleet is intercepted and sunk by the RN while the Norwegians mobilize and declar war on the nazis. Invasion cancelled.
  3. The anti-german wing of the fascist party wins out in the power struggle, begins to negotiate with the allies
  4. Airborne landings in Holland and Eben Emael in Belgium turn out to be disasters.
  5. The panzers and vehicles initially slated for Norway are instead allocated for the thrust in the Ardennes. The resulting bottleneck is even bigger, adding 2 extra days of delay.
  6. The initial attempts to cross at Sedan end in partial failure, further adding to the delay
  7. At Gembleux in Belgium (where the allies assumed the German Schwerpunkt would be), the French armoured formations (half of their total number) score a big defensive victory against Hoth's panzers
  8. The allies offer the Italians recognition of their Empire, French Djibouti, British Somaliland, trade concessions in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan, free pass through the Suez, cheap coal agreements and some big almost-free loans, cultural stuff about Malta and vague promises about supporting Italian irredentist claims in Yugoslavia. In return, Italy declares war against Germany.
  9. Later that day, German panzers finally break through at Sedan.
 

CharlesMartell

Magnum said:
This is sort of a spin-off from an idea I had a while back. Anyway, would be curious to know how you guys see the situation developing:

  1. Mussolini dies in early 1940, just before the invasion of Norway. There is a power struggle within the fascist party for control
  2. Germany screws up in Norway as a large part of the fleet is intercepted and sunk by the RN while the Norwegians mobilize and declar war on the nazis. Invasion cancelled.
  3. The anti-german wing of the fascist party wins out in the power struggle, begins to negotiate with the allies
  4. Airborne landings in Holland and Eben Emael in Belgium turn out to be disasters.
  5. The panzers and vehicles initially slated for Norway are instead allocated for the thrust in the Ardennes. The resulting bottleneck is even bigger, adding 2 extra days of delay.
  6. The initial attempts to cross at Sedan end in partial failure, further adding to the delay
  7. At Gembleux in Belgium (where the allies assumed the German Schwerpunkt would be), the French armoured formations (half of their total number) score a big defensive victory against Hoth's panzers
  8. The allies offer the Italians recognition of their Empire, French Djibouti, British Somaliland, trade concessions in Tunisia, Egypt and Sudan, free pass through the Suez, cheap coal agreements and some big almost-free loans, cultural stuff about Malta and vague promises about supporting Italian irredentist claims in Yugoslavia. In return, Italy declares war against Germany.
  9. Later that day, German panzers finally break through at Sedan.
Click to expand...

I could easily imagine Italy deciding to sit out the war, just as Franco did with Spain. Much harder to see any set of circumstances where they would join the Allied side. I don't think anyone in Italy would forget that they basically got screwed at the Versailles conference after joining the Allies in WW1.
 

lukedalton

Well for Italy, if Benny die at this date the situation will be really confusing and in the end it will be the King who will step up and create a goverment as Mussolini was so good in eliminate competion that nobody can immediately take his place. Said that, i doubt that anybody else will try to enter the war at the first stage as the italian armed forces are not ready and all the big wig know that, it's more probable that Italy will take some bribe from the Allies for keep do nothing (and without Benny supporter of Germany are lot less) and will wait till the right moment.
 

Kammada

I personally second Magnum's arguments. The struggle within the Italian ruling elite was not between the pro-Axis and pro-Allied circles, but between the pro-Axis (Starace, Farinacci...) and the neutralist (Balbo, Ciano...) ones. At the best, Italy sits the whole war out, just like Spain did, because the Allies have nothing to offer, save, maybe, turn a blind eye on the Italian conquest of Abyssinia and quasi-annexation of Albania.
 

sendô

I also think they'd likely sit the war out. If anything they're likely to want to wait for the participants to wear each other out and see if they can jump in on the winning side at the end in the hope of getting some new territory (i.e Balkans/Greece perhaps).
 

lukedalton

Kammada said:
I personally second Magnum's arguments. The struggle within the Italian ruling elite was not between the pro-Axis and pro-Allied circles, but between the pro-Axis (Starace, Farinacci...) and the neutralist (Balbo, Ciano...) ones. At the best, Italy sits the whole war out, just like Spain did, because the Allies have nothing to offer, save, maybe, turn a blind eye on the Italian conquest of Abyssinia and quasi-annexation of Albania.
Click to expand...

Sure but both Starace and Farinacci were second stringer comparated to both Balbo (even if in exile) and Ciano, plus in a case like this aka Benny suddenly gone the real poweplayer is the King as the army is behind him so he will have the final word.
IRC the Azouzu strip and basin right on Djibuti, plus the italian as official language in Malta and cheap rate for Suez were the what the allies offered and with the situation of the armed forces plus the political instability due the death of Mussolini i doubt that many will be in the mood of partecipate in a new general war
 

Earling

At the initial level is there any reason to believe an Italian offensive into Austria would be any more effective than the Italian offensive into France?

I don't know how many (if any?) troops Germany had on that border. Presumably though if this is all up in the air as the POD would have changed dispositions.

General thoughts though:

1. Germany has to deploy some proper forces to defend Austria, so she is down a few divisions at the Western Front. Not critical perhaps but it is something.
2. At the same time France could run down her forces on the Alps, potentially releasing three divisions to fight in the north - not quite an army but certainly an enlarged corps.
3. More importantly perhaps is whether Italian divisions could be brought into France. If you could add ten Italian divisions to the three French ones then you have enough to make up 2 armies.

I guess the question has to be raised as to whether these forces could be moved to the front in a few days and weeks though. Still, it would represent something of a strategic reserve which might well change morale, politics and everything else which would have considerable effect. Then again it might not. All in all what happens next is hard to see.
 
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