Is there any realistic way that the Eastern Bloc could have spent a lot less on the military after reaching parity in nuclear weapons with the West?

It seems irrational to me that the Eastern Bloc leadership maintained such large conventional forces after around 1970 or so.

Was the Eastern Bloc committed to such high military spending due to inertia, fears of an invasion (however irrational or rational), fear of a military coup, or some other reason I am not grasping?
 
I believe it was David Glantz that said after what happened with WW2 and how horrific that invasion was, USSR was doomed to spend itself out of existence because of paranoia.
 
It seems irrational to me that the Eastern Bloc leadership maintained such large conventional forces after around 1970 or so.

Was the Eastern Bloc committed to such high military spending due to inertia, fears of an invasion (however irrational or rational), fear of a military coup, or some other reason I am not grasping?
Kruschev was originally on track to downsize the army before he was couped/pressured. He might have entrenched a smaller army if his Detente continues long enough.

But after him, a large standing army became necessary. Exercises in the 70s showed that it was required for proper mobilization and cohesion even after taking massed tactical nuclear strikes to the face. NATO never really had the political/popular will to do the same even in the 80s and the goal was to not use nukes/dissuade with smaller forces than required.
 
Kruschev was originally on track to downsize the army before he was couped/pressured. He might have entrenched a smaller army if his Detente continues long enough.

But after him, a large standing army became necessary. Exercises in the 70s showed that it was required for proper mobilization and cohesion even after taking massed tactical nuclear strikes to the face. NATO never really had the political/popular will to do the same even in the 80s and the goal was to not use nukes/dissuade with smaller forces than required.
Indeed Khrushchev wanted to downsize the military as he believed that nuclear weapons were more than enough to deter an attack however this along with the rest of his decisions were extremely unpopular within the Soviet government which led to him being kicked out of the Soviet government.
 
I believe it was David Glantz that said after what happened with WW2 and how horrific that invasion was, USSR was doomed to spend itself out of existence because of paranoia.
Basically this. It turns out when nearly 30 million of your people die along with having most of your major cities reduced to rubble along with having dozens of millions of your people left with mental and physical injuries and having to lose decades of economic growth means that your government will be rather reluctant to downsize the military.
 
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Interesting scenario. Just skipping over various numbers, USSR among others had the largest number of tanks, submarines and warheads/megatons in the latter stages of the CW. So a 10-20% drop in numbers plus a comensurate numbers in manpower it's not going to alter MAD much. Part of the savings could then be used say make the existing weapons better/higher quality and the rest to reinvest in the economy to actually make life better for the people, put food on their goddamn table in the 1970s and 1980s and the communist USSR might very well survive quite well into the 21st century, like PRC China did. But this is with the benefit of hindsight.

How much money would they save with a roughly 20 precent reduction as i outlined above?

I think one of the necessary things for this to work though must be at least a pragmatic rather than overtly hostile China on the border, an ATL on it's own. But said China did prioritize it's economy over the military once Mao was gone, and it worked. Perhaps it will work for USSR and even WP countries too.
 
How much money would they save with a roughly 20 precent reduction as i outlined above
They would fall behind tremendously as they would either have to cut from R&D or from Procurement, and the USSR knew that it was much better to have 1000 T-72s that were pretty good tanks than 250 T-80U tanks that were great but in short supply. The Russians forgot that and dumped everything into R&D and their procurement of all of those highly advanced weapons has slowed to a crawl. Look how well that turned out for them.

The USSR would save a ton of money that would go straight into the Politburo's pockets and not one kopek would reach any other person or industry.
 
The USSR would save a ton of money that would go straight into the Politburo's pockets and not one kopek would reach any other person or industry.
Soviet elite luxury industry was underdeveloped and undercapitalised even compared to the pre 1980s nascent western elite luxury industry.

that capital can’t get soaked up in priceless figurines (pornographic) or falcons (Maltese)

so it’s going to go on poorly planned wasteful mega projects.
 
You are just choosing the worst case scenario here, that the saved money is wasted. Me i'm reasoning that if in this ATL the soviet leadership is astute enough to reduce military spending then it's astute enough to use the saved money in a somewhat more efficient manner rather than completely waste it. But again to get to this ATL perhaps one of these scenarios in which a different, younger, more reform orientated leader take the power in the seventies at the latest from the "old guard".
 
You are just choosing the worst case scenario here, that the saved money is wasted. Me i'm reasoning that if in this ATL the soviet leadership is astute enough to reduce military spending then it's astute enough to use the saved money in a somewhat more efficient manner rather than completely waste it. But again to get to this ATL perhaps one of these scenarios in which a different, younger, more reform orientated leader take the power in the seventies at the latest from the "old guard".
The Soviet Union was in dire need of some new blood. The Soviets in the 60s, 70s, and 80s were stuck with a bunch of senile old men who probably couldn’t remember what they had for breakfast in the morning.
 

marathag

Banned
Basically this. It turns out when your country has 30 million of your own people killed along with most of your cities being reduced to rubble, dozens of millions of your people being enslaved, and having to lose decades of economic growth due to an invading army who believed that your people were Sub Human, means that your government will be rather reluctant to downsize the military. It didn’t help that the Soviets were invaded by virtually every country on earth during the Russian Civil War, it didn’t help that the Soviets were isolated and were an international pariah, and it most certainly didn’t help that the Soviet Union’s borders were constantly being attacked by the Chinese.
It didn't help that all of their plans were attack plans on the West, not defending against a NATO thrust into Poland.
And their Intelligence agencies were good enough to find that there was no plans to roll back Communism, just containment from spreading further
 
The Soviet Union was in dire need of some new blood. The Soviets in the 60s, 70s, and 80s were stuck with a bunch of senile old men who probably couldn’t remember what they had for breakfast in the morning.
They eventually got some young blood in with the “youngsters” Andropov promoted (Gorby, Legachev, etc) but by then it was probably too late and they overcorrected
 
They eventually got some young blood in with the “youngsters” Andropov promoted (Gorby, Legachev, etc) but by then it was probably too late and they overcorrected
Correct, by the time they got young blood it was already to late. Besides Gorby had his own problems with his sell the Soviet Union to the west plan which eventually led to the Soviet Union Collapsing along with the Russian economy which never recovered and afterwards was run by Yeltsin who was constantly drunk and was an absolute embarrassment.
 
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A Soviet Union that chooses different won’t have Mikoyan lose the vote on tail ending Nagy on November 3. You know? If he gets better when he comes back from the war he won’t be the man who lives in your house who doesn’t drink, he’ll be daddy again.
 
The massive conscript army (and border troops and internal troops, etc) was not just a military precaution

Regime stabilization played a part, but not only just in terms of repression. Rather, as a social institution that carried out political education, acculturation for people often from underdeveloped peasant/transient labour backgrounds, as well as manpower for the more menial aspects of the agricultural and construction sectors, this was not going to be done away with just because militarily there was no urgent need for it. If I could compare it to a modern example, Israel does not need a large conscript army, it's major threats are not Egyptian Tank Divisions trying to seize Ashkelon, but rather are more asymmetric or long range in nature - but Israeli society sees enormous social utility in a conscript army to the point where it's structure is embedded in social life and economic expectations. The Soviet Army is similar in this regard. The Soviet State, and its satellites, existed in an almost permanent state of mobilization, with a state security fetishization that was extreme even for 20th century standards

Even with the massively overgrown military sector, however, it's not as if the Soviet economy couldn't make tangible economic gains from this, as the Americans did from the Sunbelt States Defense R&D sector that sprang up in the 60s and 70s. Rather, the Soviet economic problem came in that their policy of investing constantly in new capital equipment for the purposes of, well, making new capital equipment, made it an economy where there was little capture of value add from either production or consumption, a d this had marginal returns over time. All of the issues with corruption, distribution failures, poor standard of living, bad and inaccurate data for Gosplan, these made bad things worse, but they weren't the massive albatross crushing the economy once the returns of postwar recovery and imperial looting from Eastern Europe were exhausted. The Kosygin reforms may have eventually found a way if pursued adequately to get more out of the inefficient industrial sector, but not enough to fix the core problem.

I tend to concur with Stephen Kotkin in Armageddon Averted when he notes that the 70s allowed the Soviet Union to ignore this massive problem because energy prices covered over a lot of revenue shortfall gaps and therefore they were shocked when they shouldn't have been when that came to a halt. Most countries had a rather nasty adjustment period in the 70s-80s from an industrial mixed market economy to a services based more market dominant economy. The Soviets didn't. Their satellites papered over this problem by just getting extremely indebted.
 
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Correct, by the time they got young blood it was already to late. Besides Gorby had his own problems with his sell the Soviet Union to west plan which eventually led to the Soviet Union Collapsing along with the Russian economy which never recovered and afterwards was run by Yeltsin who was constantly drunk and was an absolute embarrassment.
Gorby was naive, his heart was in the right place but he was much too naive and idealistic to even lead USSR, let alone save it. What did the poor man thought, if he'd just offer his hand to the americans everyone would then sing kumbaya and lived happily ever after. I'm sure he would have made a great PR representative for USSR, but not it's leader.
 

marathag

Banned
if he'd just offer his hand to the americans everyone would then sing kumbaya and lived happily ever after.
He helped end the Cold War, and the USSR as it was.
Good Riddance to that system. All Mankind owes him a debt of gratitude tht he saw the Communist system needed drastic change to provide for the people they misgoverned
See what happens when you get Putin trying to rebuild the Evil Empire?
You get Evil, as on display in Ukraine, right now
 

Ramontxo

Donor
Gorby was naive, his heart was in the right place but he was much too naive and idealistic to even lead USSR, let alone save it. What did the poor man thought, if he'd just offer his hand to the americans everyone would then sing kumbaya and lived happily ever after. I'm sure he would have made a great PR representative for USSR, but not it's leader.
Do you understand that the Soviet Union was an dictatorship?. That the control of most of Eastern Europe was imposed by the occupation of the said countries by the Red Army against the wiĺl of its citizens?
As much as you dont like how the downfall of the said Evil Empire (and yes so it was) was handled (and yes it was quite a disaster) the East of Europe countries (and the people of the Soviet Union itself) had the right of being liberated from Tyranny. And if you are lucky enough to not have lived under one. Thank God for it
 
I see you are trying to turn this into a current political issue and try to claim some kind of moral high ground. Will avoid biting (though if i'm ever in the mood i'll bother to reply to such... statements as above in an appropriate place), i will just tell you that i'm romanian who do remember those times and so would appreciate if you get off that high horse, i assume neither of you are eastern europeans or ever been there, let alone live.
 
Do you understand that the Soviet Union was an dictatorship?. That the control of most of Eastern Europe was imposed by the occupation of the said countries by the Red Army against the wiĺl of its citizens?
As much as you dont like how the downfall of the said Evil Empire (and yes so it was) was handled (and yes it was quite a disaster) the East of Europe countries (and the people of the Soviet Union itself) had the right of being liberated from Tyranny. And if you are lucky enough to not have lived under one. Thank God for it
It most definitely was a good thing for Yeltsin and his goons. Not so much for the millions of Russians who lost their jobs and were forced to live off on subsistence farming. The collapse of the Soviet Union brought down the economies of Russia, Ukraine, and the other former soviet republics with it. It also led to a large amount of ethnic conflicts and hundreds of thousands or possibly even millions of deaths caused by said ethnic conflicts and the collapse of the economy. Life expectancy and living standards collapsed following the fall of the Soviet Union. End Tyranny? Most former Soviet Republics are dictatorships who give their citizens less freedom then the Soviet Union did. At least the Soviets had a functional economy and they weren’t like the former soviet republic of Uzbekistan who following the collapse of the Soviet Union relies on Child Slave Labour to produce cotton. I wouldn’t really call millions of deaths, collapse of living standards and life expectancy, having tens of millions of people lose their jobs, and having a large amounts of ethnic conflicts as a good thing but you do you. Im sure those millions of children in Uzbekistan who are forced to pick cotton instead of going to school, and all those millions of people in Turkmenistan and Belarus who are stuck in an authoritarian dictatorship which would make even Stalin raise his eyebrows would agree with you /s.
 
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