How many countries would be formed from RL Brazil?

[ramones1986]

With a PoD between the middle of 18th century (or even earlier, if it's possible) and first half of the 19th century, how many countries would be formed from the OTL Brazilian territory?

 

[JorgeGG]

My vote was for four countries and the rationale is the following (and shameless lobby also )
Just considering the following major zones (that also happened to have strong regional cultures and resources) from north to south these are:

• Maranhão plus Grão-Pará
  
• Bahia-Pernambuco
• Sao Paulo- Rio de Janeiro - Minas Gerais
• Rio Grande do Sul (that could include Uruguay)

 

[DocJamore]

Agree with the above. However Rio become its own region rather than join the south. If we use Hispanic America as an example, if Brazil balkanized I could see four or five states arising. I voted five.

The geopolitics of a Brazil that has fallen apart would be interesting and you could do a lot different stuff in a timeline with the implications. Argentina will become that much proportionally stronger. Grão Pará interests me out off all those new states because you might have just created an Congo Free State in the Western Hemisphere.

 

[nandalf]

I don't think that Rio would go it Alone though, possible?Yes, but I don't think is probable,so i would say 4.

 

[TruthfulPanda]

I think that the best answer is "many".
"Many" as in "quite a few", but not "lots".

 

[Analytical Engine]

I could see four, or five if you count Uruguay.

 

[Indicus]

Four: Maranhao and Grao-Para, the Northeast, the southern bit close to Uruguay, and the remainder of Brazil.

 

[Monter]

Something like this.

 

[Indicus]

Something like this.

I imagine Pernambuco and Bahia would be a single state similar to the OTL Confederation of the Equator, and Maranhao and Grao-Para would both be part of Portugal.

 

[Monter]

I imagine Pernambuco and Bahia would be a single state similar to the OTL Confederation of the Equator, and Maranhao and Grao-Para would both be part of Portugal.

Bahia wasn't part of the Confederation and Maranhão was separated from Grão-Pará (that would probably remain Portuguese for a while) in the mid 18th century.

 

[Socrates]

This seems to me massively contingent on whether the Portuguese court moves there or not. If they do, one or two is most likely. If they don't, I'd say five or six.