How does a Great War scenario play out with a larger Canada?

[The Gunslinger]

This is strictly a thought exercise as there would be so many butterflies in a world with a century prior PoD, but we’ll use our Great War as we know exactly how it all went down.

The Canadian Expeditionary Force misses the opening stages of the war and doesn’t show up until 1915 as per OTL. In OTL Canada managed a showing of four divisions and 600,000 serving members from a population of over 7,000,000, or about 8% of the population. So, if we have a severely amped up Canada of about 20,000,000 that adds up to about 1,600,000, I don’t think Canada will reach double digit levels of the population like the Europeans did so we’ll stick with the 8%.

Our OTL Canada put some 600,000 men in uniform for 4 divisions. With 1.6 million that comes to a little over 13 divisions, which we’ll round down to 12 for the purposes of the scenario along with a cavalry division (instead of OTLs cavalry brigade).

In OTL, the divisions arrived in March 15, September 15, December 15 and August 16. A fifth division was preparing in 1917 but was later broken up.

If the Canadians arrive on somewhat the same schedule, but in greater numbers (2+1, 4, 4, 2), what do the British do with them?



I haven’t given much thought to the naval side of things, but I doubt even a powerful Canada has much more than a few light cruisers and with destroyer support off of each coast. Maybe they pony up the cash for another dreadnought for Britain.

 

[alex costa]

More than likely said powered up Canada would include parts of the territory that is OTL US? Even then if we exclude butterflies like you said it's likely the British just add the to there forces. It could actually make a slight difference on the side of the Allies since well they'd have more numbers. We could probably even see a push before 1918?

 

[The Gunslinger]

More than likely said powered up Canada would include parts of the territory that is OTL US?

It would have to be, there would be no conceivable way to get a population that high otherwise at that point in time. If you stretch OTL, I could see maybe a 50% increase without altering borders but that includes a lot of stars aligning

Even then if we exclude butterflies like you said it's likely the British just add the to there forces. It could actually make a slight difference on the side of the Allies since well they'd have more numbers. We could probably even see a push before 1918?

Would an extra nine divisions make that big a difference? I could see an initial Canadian Corps being upgraded to an Army in 1915-16 and managing a section of front which reduces the tempo on the British somewhat.

 

[TRH]

They would have to have the traditional British cultural suspicion of large standing armies, so as you mobilize more troops, I'm guessing the difficulty of training and outfitting them won't increase linearly. Or maybe it still does, my math skills are middling.

 

[Marquis]

Maybe a proper RCN - Atlantic Force and Pacific Force each of a pair of battlecruisers with a half-flotilla of escorting light cruisers (8) and some destroyers (a full flotilla of 16 each?)

 

[Grey Wolf]

A larger Canada is the result of the question, I cannot see how a more populous Canada can even approach those figures otherwise

So, if it has just to say the Red River basin, Alaska, and Oregon (including Washington) due to historical accidents it might still be recognisable as Canada. Anything more and the whole of history has changed since the mid 18th century so it's pointless speculating about WW1

It is definitely going to have a larger navy - this would have more of everything it already had, plus some lead ships, either armoured cruisers or Sverige-style coast defence battleships

The main result of this in any close analogue to OTL's WW1 is that Canada can bring greater force earlier. While the USA has to be dragged into the conflict by a series of outrages, Canada is in it from the start and just ramping up its forces.

I would say that 1916 in any close analogue would see both a Somme type offensive, and a Canada-led one hinged on it. Don't forget OTL the Somme was supposed to have a French offensive tagged onto the bottom end but the French were unable to provide the manpower for that. Here, Canada can do that.

 

[bpbruce]

A smaller British Imperial force in France might have been hammered even more and mutinied faster, so the Canadians might be kept separate from them to prevent infection.

 

[The Gunslinger]

They would have to have the traditional British cultural suspicion of large standing armies, so as you mobilize more troops, I'm guessing the difficulty of training and outfitting them won't increase linearly. Or maybe it still does, my math skills are middling.

It's why I kept the number at 8%. The British manage to get to 13%, but I can't see a Dominion (even a powerful) getting that high with no strong history of standing armies and no history of overseas service on top of just having less skin in the game. It might be even less, but I think that some of this would be offset by a Quebec that's been more drowned out demographically.

So, if it has just to say the Red River basin, Alaska, and Oregon (including Washington) due to historical accidents it might still be recognisable as Canada. Anything more and the whole of history has changed since the mid 18th century so it's pointless speculating about WW1

It would have to include much of the Great Lakes westward, all of Oregon and the California Central Valley. Now, with that big of a PoD obviously nothing remotely the same happens in Europe or the world, but I'm more using our war as a template because we know how the whole thing shook out. Otherwise you're creating an entirely new set of circumstances for a thought exercise.

It is definitely going to have a larger navy - this would have more of everything it already had, plus some lead ships, either armoured cruisers or Sverige-style coast defence battleships

OTL Canada was incredibly reticent about building a navy, and at the start of the conflict only had a pair of protected cruisers, I think at least some modest expansion takes place with a modern set of cruisers as well as some associated destroyers. IN OTL Canada didn't have the capacity for capital ships, or even light ships beyond destroyers so it might not be feasible unless Ottawa spends big dollars on building that capacity.

 

[TRH]

It's why I kept the number at 8%. The British manage to get to 13%, but I can't see a Dominion (even a powerful) getting that high with no strong history of standing armies and no history of overseas service on top of just having less skin in the game. It might be even less, but I think that some of this would be offset by a Quebec that's been more drowned out demographically.

For peak strength, yeah, but I'm thinking about the size of the peacetime army, which I'd guess won't grow at the same rate as the overall population of Canada grows in this scenario, at least so long as US relations are decent. In that case, you have a lower regular-to-conscript ratio, which I assume would slow the training process a bit.

 

[The Gunslinger]

For peak strength, yeah, but I'm thinking about the size of the peacetime army, which I'd guess won't grow at the same rate as the overall population of Canada grows in this scenario, at least so long as US relations are decent. In that case, you have a lower regular-to-conscript ratio, which I assume would slow the training process a bit.

The vast majority of the first Canadian divisions came from the militia, part of the reason why nobody arrived in France until March of 1915, there was a whole lot of supplementary training. Most of the regular army wound up in the Canadian cavalry brigade, which did serve in 1914.