Great Eastern Crisis of 1875-1878 blows up into a general war?

[Jim Smitty]

Like the tin says, could the Great Eastern Crisis of 1875-78 turn into a general European war with a misstep from one of those in this crisis?

The most likely player making a misstep would be Franz Joseph IMO as I honestly looking at his past prior to the Great Eastern Crisis. I honestly don't understand how he didn't decide to flex his muscle and knock around the Ottomans to make up for the defeat in 1866.

Also if it does go up and draw in all the great powers does it become Franco-Prussian War and Crimean War electric boogaloo on both those fronts? Or are the British powerful enough to tell everyone no?

 

[funnyhat]

I think the problem is that not many in Europe wanted to support the Ottomans then. There was general sympathy for the revolts and it would be politically difficult for a European state to support the empire suppressing them. The Ottomans would have to handle the matter very differently, but then, there may have been no crisis in the first place.

 

[Merrick]

This is the 1870s - the Three Emperors' League is a thing, the Franco-Russian alliance is an implausible future, France is still licking her wounds from 1871 and the British are in full-blown Splendid Isolation.

Which is to say that the alliance system that lead to the 1914 crisis simply isn't there. Austria and Russia are formal allies and OTL had cut a deal over the spoils before Russia even declared war. If Franz Joseph wants to gain some military glory by helping the Russians beat up the Turks, then you might see an earlier Austrian occupation of Bosnia-Herzegovina and maybe the Austrian and Russian armies racing for Macedonia, but it's all settled at the Peace Conference anyway.

The only power interested in supporting the Turks are the British, and they care about Constantinople and the Straights and not about the Balkan interior (there was a lot of sympathy for the Bulgarians). OTOH neither Austria nor Germany nor anyone else wants to see the Russians erecting large Slavic client states in the Balkans, still less a Russian Constantinople. So even if the Austrians are formal belligerents, expect the war to fizzle out as OTL once the Russian realise no-one is prepared to support their drive on Constantinople.

The only potential variation is if the Germans decide to go all-in on the Russian alliance and support either Great Bulgaria or a Russian advance to the Straights. But even if that happens and even if the British are prepared to go to war to stop it, the result is the Great Un-War - the British have no army, and cannot threaten Russia or Germany (or Austria) directly, but they can blockade the Straights (and if necessary the Baltic and Trieste) pretty much forever without Russia, Germany and Austria combined being able to do much about it. Cue stalemate and a Peace Conference.

 

[Osman Aga]

Like the tin says, could the Great Eastern Crisis of 1875-78 turn into a general European war with a misstep from one of those in this crisis?

The most likely player making a misstep would be Franz Joseph IMO as I honestly looking at his past prior to the Great Eastern Crisis. I honestly don't understand how he didn't decide to flex his muscle and knock around the Ottomans to make up for the defeat in 1866.

Also if it does go up and draw in all the great powers does it become Franco-Prussian War and Crimean War electric boogaloo on both those fronts? Or are the British powerful enough to tell everyone no?

It can only result in a general war if the Austro-Hungarians intervene in favor of the Ottoman Empire during the Russo-Turkish War, so in 1877. Prior to the war, if the UK or Austria-Hungary backs the Ottoman Empire, Russia will not force the war to happen. Let's say the intervention starts when Russia uses Romania to join the war and requests Serbia to join in as well.

Austria-Hungary not declaring war on the Ottoman Empire makes sense. They agreed about 'influence' in Bosnia with Russia for them without bleeding at all. The Russians (and Romanians) bleed, Austria-Hungary takes their share of the Balkan cake without a drop of blood. Any nation would take such deal if they had to. It didn't really work out for Austria-Hungary in the long term but it was a better alternative than actually fighting the war against the Ottoman Empire. One should note that the last war between the Habsburgs and the Ottomans was fought in 1791.

Austria-Hungary joining Russia in a war means that the Ottoman Empire would have to refuse the terms of the Conference of Constantinople (1876). If the Ottomans looked like war was to be fought against Russia AND Austria-Hungary, probably Serbia and Montenegro (and most likely Greece as well, being opportunistic), they would agree with some terms the Europeans are dead set to enforce. So no general war as you expect. If you want a general war, it has to be Austria-Hungary against Russia, and even then under certain circumstances. The British intervention becomes much more efficient too. You get basically Ottoman Empire, Austria-Hungary, United Kingdom vs Russia, Romania. It can't be any more of a general war than this.

 

[Osman Aga]

I think the problem is that not many in Europe wanted to support the Ottomans then. There was general sympathy for the revolts and it would be politically difficult for a European state to support the empire suppressing them. The Ottomans would have to handle the matter very differently, but then, there may have been no crisis in the first place.

There was a situation in Thessaloniki in 1876, where two European Consuls died in a riot between Muslims and Christians. Very much harming the Public Opinion of the Ottoman Empire. This was tied with the original Herzegovina Rebellion of 1875. The Bulgarian Uprising was just what the situation already was. The Thessaloniki incident made it worse. It is worth to say that the British Public opinion turned sympathetic during the defense of Plevne, probably as the underdog was facing a much stronger power and resisting fairly well.