For Want of a Completion (a college football TL)

2009-10

Jasen777

Donor
TV

While the Big 12 South controversy was reaching it peak last season, ESPN took a few headlines away by securing the broadcast rights to the BCS games, other than the Rose which was already under an ABC contract, for four years starting with the 2010-11 season. Media watchers were shocked by their high offer which outbid FOX, who was seeking to keep the games, by over $120 million. In addition, ESPN scooped up the rights to Big East games.


Season

The 2009 season was one marked by revenge. In a rare double revenge game (for OU because they had lost, and Texas because they felt that OU cheated them in the polls in route to their title), Texas prevailed in the Red River Shootout 16-13 after a tough defensive struggle. In the SEC, Florida and Alabama once again entered the conference title game undefeated, but Alabama got their revenge for last year and beat Florida 32-13.

Cincinnati also went undefeated in a major conference (the Big East), and TCU and Boise St went undefeated in the Mt. West and WAC receptively. Even though this left a log jam of 5 undefeated schools, the public was in large support of the Alabama / Texas title game, thought the Big East protested they were being disrespected as a major conference and people claimed it once again showed the bias against the non-major conferences, especially when TCU and Boise St were matched up in a bowl game and thus prevented from having a chance of upsetting a major conference school.

The title game set up another chance for revenge, as Texas had beaten Alabama and last year's Fiesta Bowl, but it was not to be as Colt McCoy threw a go ahead TD pass with under 2 minutes left in the game and Texas hung on to win 28-24.


2009-10 College Football Major Bowls

Title Game: (1) Texas over (2) Alabama 28-24

Fiesta Bowl: (6) Boise St over (3) TCU 17-10
Orange Bowl: (10) Iowa over (9) Georgia Tech 24-14
Rose Bowl: (8) Ohio st over (7) Oregon 26-17
Sugar Bowl: (5) Florida over (4) Cincinnati 51-24


Realignment

In December, after the regular season but before the bowl games, Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney shook the college football world with the announcement that the Big 10 was looking to expand “to at least 12 schools.” Reasons for doing this was to hold a conference title game and to expand into new markets for the sake of their cable network. It was speculated that they had wanted to expand east into the large TV markets there, but the Big East's new TV deal had included a grant of rights to the conference that largely precluded it (the school's rights would stay with the conference even if the school left), for now. It has been speculated that this saved the Big East as a conference.

Shortly after the PAC 10 announced plans to expand, and for the same reasons as the BIG.

Meanwhile the Big 12 was in a full on internal crisis. The northern schools were displeased with the shift in the conference power to the south (both on and off the field) and unequal TV revenue sharing, and of course alarm over the purposed Longhorn Network. Texas A+M was reaching a breaking point with Texas, and the war of words between Texas and Oklahoma threatened a falling out between the conference's most powerful football schools.

As rumors flew around in the 2010 off-season, the Big 12 held meetings to arrange new revenue and TV agreements. They failed. The rumors only intensified. The PAC would swoop in and take 6 schools and when the dust settled there'd four 6-team super conferences. Schools were trying to join the BIG 10, or the SEC, or both. As the calendar turned to June it became semi-confirmed that the PAC was offering invitations to Colorado/OU/OSU/Texas/A+M/Tech and that the Big 10 was in the final stages of offering Nebraska. The PAC deal fell apart among Texas declining over not being able to have the Longhorn Network in that conference, the PAC's reluctance to go to expand past 12 without Texas being in on it and A+M's putting out feelers to the SEC.

However the Big 10 announced Nebraska would be joining and then the PAC went with plan B and invited just Colorado and Utah, both of who quickly accepted. Boise St announced that they would be joining the Mt. West and BYU announced they were planning on becoming independent. All these moves were expected to take place after the 2010-11 season. The Big 12's turmoil continued as Oklahoma's president David Boren stated that OU would be an active player in realignment, that they were not necessarily committed to the Big 12 if it became something other than what it was, and that they would most assuredly not be playing second fiddle to Texas in anything.

Realignment would continue, but there was another season to play first, and the first one under the new plus one plan.


Notes:

OTL ESPN also won the BCS game rights. Since the Cotton Bowl with the Big East tie-in is part of it ITTL, they were also interested in the Big East rights. OTL they was also interested but they didn't make an offer until a year later, after the R bomb had dropped. The Big East initially accepted the offer but then rejected it because of the PAC's new deal with Fox / their network which paid more (this was ultimately the death blow for the Big East. Here the offer is made before all of that and the Big East accepts it.

The Bowls are OTL, except Colt McCoy doesn't get hurt and Texas wins the game. They were driving late to take the lead before turnovers by the backup QB put the game out of reach, I'm firmly convinced they win that game if McCoy didn't get hurt (which he was early in the game).

Anyways, if fits the theme of this TL, which is a SEC “screw”, compared to OTL's SEC wank. My point was to show how even though the SEC was the best conference during the period, their run of title included a lot of luck (getting into a title game or not getting out of a title game due to one play which might very well have been in a game between non-SEC schools), which then started to give them the benefit of the doubt all the time. I originally was not going to have them win one until the lost one OTL, but now the TL is diverging more with a different title structure and conference makeup (it's coming), so we will see.
 
2010-11

Jasen777

Donor
2010-11

ACC - Virginia Tech stated 0-2 with losses to Boise St and, very embarrassingly, to James Madison. But they rallied to win 11 straight, including 8-0 ACC record a win over Florida St in the conference title game.

Big East – Uconn (7-5) lost in OT to South Florida (8-4) the last week of the season, throwing the conference title to West Virginia (9-3) who won via head to head tie breaker with Pittsburgh (7-5).

Big Ten – Ohio St (11-1), Wisconsin (11-1), and Michigan St (11-1) finished in a 3-way tie for the conference, all at 7-1. Wisconsin was given the Rose Bowl birth however as they were ranked 1 spot higher in the BCS than Ohio St.

Big 12 – In a season of turmoil off the field for the conference, the on field product managed to match it. Texas had quite the hangover after winning the title, failing to develop a QB to take over for McCoy and finished the season 5-7. Just like 2008, the south division finished in a 3 way tie - OU (10-2), OSU (10-2), Texas A+M (9-3)- and once again Oklahoma benefited from the BCS tie breaker and was selected to face Nebraska (10-2) in the title game, who they beat.

PAC 10 – The conference featured 2 very good and different teams, Oregon finished the regular season undefeated and ranked number 1 in the polls, behind Chip Kelly's perfection of the high speed spread option and star running back LaMichael James. Stanford, playing smashmouth pro-style, finished with just 1-loss, to Oregon, with star QB Andrew Luck, who finished a close 2nd in the Heisman to Mississippi St's Cam Newton.

SEC – Star transfer and Heisman winner Cam Newton and Mississippi St. (10-2) stole the show and the highlights, but LSU (11-1) took the loaded SEC West division, which also saw Alabama and Arkansas ranked, and then defeated surprise East winner South Carolina for the SEC title.

Other – TCU won the Mountain West and finished undefeated and ranked #2 in the country, securing the non-AQ spot in the BCS bowls. In the WAC Boise was also posed to run the table, but a loss in the last week due to kicking woes and star QB Colin Kaepernick to Nevada, somewhat controversially, saw them out of the BCS.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (1) Oregon over (4) Wisconsin 27-17

Cotton Bowl: (2) TCU over (16) West Virginia 34-10

Fiesta Bowl: (3) Stanford over (7) Oklahoma 34-27

Sugar Bowl: (6) Ohio St over (5) LSU 24-21

Orange Bowl: (8) Mississippi St. over (12) Virginia Tech - 27-20

LSU's and Wisconsin's losses made it a fairly simply question for the after the bowls poll. Who's #2, TCU or Stanford? Stanford believed they had the better case, a (greatly they would say) tougher schedule than TCU, a much better score against common opponent Oregon St 38-0 to TCU's 31-20 and their only loss was to the #1 ranked team in the country, whereas TCU's toughest opponent had probably been West Virginia (in a quasi home game for TCU at Cowboys Stadium) which after the bowl loss fished ranked 24th. But voters stuck with TCU at #2, and TCU would get to play their third game of the season at Cowboy's Stadium against Oregon for the national title.

But despite a brave effort from QB Andy Dalton and the stingy TCU defense, Oregon Heisman finalist LaMichael James hit a couple long runs in the 4th quarter and Oregon won the title, 33 to 27.


Realignment

The games on the field did nothing to slow down realignment speculation. In September the Big 12 held a meeting to finalize buyout terms by Nebraska and Colorado. Schools such as Kansas St and Baylor pushed for a high fee, hoping that it would help to stabilize the conference. But push-back from A+M, Missouri, and Oklahoma lead to the schools walking with a lower than expected $4 million dollar exit fee. A deal to rework how TV money failed at the meeting also, and just a week later Texas and ESPN came to terms on the Longhorn Network. That was the last straw for Texas A+M who publicly announced they were applying to join the SEC (catching the SEC somewhat off-guard). And although no public announcement was made, it soon became clear from various leaks that Missouri and Oklahoma were seeking to leave the conference, as was probably every Big 12 school save Texas who thought another major conference might take them.

In October SEC Commissioner Slive announced that he expected the SEC to invite Texas A+M (getting a foothold in Texas was a chance too good to pass on), and that the conference was searching for a 14th team in order to balance their divisions. A large number of schools were immediately rumored to be looking to join the SEC, it was probably even true about many of the schools.

This caused BIG commish Jim Delaney to be concerned that SEC could take schools from the ACC that he wanted to add. It soon leaked that Delaney was working on convincing the BIG presidents on adding Maryland and Virginia to the conference. This could get their network on basic cable in the large markets of D.C (7), Baltimore (20), Hampton Roads (36) , and Richmond (45). This may have been what lead David Boren to state in an interview that “the Big 10 was probably Oklahoma's top choice at this point,” so as to try to put pressure on the BIG for an invite (the relationship with Texas was burnt, the PAC had waffled on them without Texas, and the school thought it self too good academically for the SEC).

In December the SEC announced that they would be adding Texas A+M and Virginia Tech. Then the BIG two-upped them by adding Maryland, Virginia, Oklahoma (the lone non AAU school in the group but too good of a football program to pass on), and Missouri. The SEC suddenly found itself with a desire to also have 16 schools to match the BIG. North Carolina was a prime target but hesitated on leaving Tobacco Road. So the SEC violated the gentlemen's agreement and accepted Florida St (which if not a new state for the conference, had a national brand, and 2 schools in Florida is far from the worst thing), and unlike the BIG taking at least a very minor amount of care to consider future divisional alignments, looked west to add another school, decided on taking Kansas.

Notes: So here we have butterflies kicking in a little. Obviously Newton decided to transfer to Miss St, which was on his short list, instead of Auburn. And more than 1 game a year are going different ways. The SEC is not quite the juggernaut it was OTL due to not having it's title run. Mt. West TCU over Stanford (and a few others for that matter) is a decision the playoff committee would never make (thought the Mt. West was getting a fair amount of respect at the time), and this plus one system actually represents the best chance (though not a good one) for non-major conference schools to play for the title that has been used ITTL or OTL.

The BIG and PAC have conference networks, and the SEC is planning on having one, which is why they are going for markets / national draws aggressively (and they also have the money to make it happen), though the PAC ran out of good options when Texas rejected them and they didn't try other Big 12 options passed getting to 12 for a title game. The Big East and ACC do not / aren't planning on networks and with their guaranteed BCS spots have no need to reload with schools just to get to a certain number, it's not worth it for them to expand unless they get a great school to commit.

It's unclear if the gentlemen's agreement (a pact between Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and possibly Kentucky to keep others schools in their states from joining the SEC) was an actual thing or just rumor, in the case it was a thing it's easy to see South Carolina and Georgia betraying Florida so that the last spot was Florida St and not Clemson or Georgia Tech.
 
TCU makes sense only because the BCS people would not want a rematch. If there is an argument available for a non-rematch team, I think they'd possibly take it. Plus, you could argue for an injury in the different bowl game making a difference - the selectors realize it won't be quite the same Stanford team, not quite as good. TCU is this year's 1984 BYU. The good showing they put on might help other smaller conferences even if they didn't win.

Well, there go Kansas' 285 straight Big 12 wins or however many they have in basketball. They and Kentucky will make SEC basketball very interesting.

Nebraska-Oklahoma is back as a rivalry.

Yeah, about that divisional alignment... it's going to look like an abstract painting.
 
2011-12

Jasen777

Donor
2011-12

By March of 2011, 6 of the Big 12 schools (Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas A+M) had announced plans to leave the conference. Colorado would be playing in the PAC for the 2011 season and Nebraska the Big 10 (now with 12 schools). The other 4 schools would have liked to leave immediately and they could have forced it with the mess that was the Big 12, but their new conferences simply weren't ready scheduling wise, so they would have one more season in the Big 12. For 2011 the Big 12 was set with 10 schools, a round-robin schedule, and no title game (due to an NCAA rule that mandated 12 teams for a conference to have a title game).

The problem was of course for the 2012 season when there would only be 6 schools in the Big 12. Texas' insistence on the Longhorn Network and it's split with Oklahoma had put the conference in danger of an outright collapse. However with the guarantee Fiesta Bowl spot, and TV money still willing to approach something similar to what they had before as long as Texas was there, the conference would survive by gaining new schools. TCU, just coming off a title game appearance, was an obvious choice.

Houston was a candidate for a spot, but neither the non-Texas schools (not wanting to be too Texas heavy) nor the Texas schools (not wanting yet another conference competitor besides TCU) were particularly interested and adding another Texas school. BYU and Boise St were considered, but BYU had just became independent and was reluctant to give that up (and Big 12 schools were concerned about scheduling issues with them), and Big 12 school's presidents balked at inviting a school with as lowly an academic reputation as Boise St.

The Big 12 badly wanted to secure that 8th team as quickly as possible however. The previous year, FedEx CEO Fred Smith had made an offer of 10 million a year to any BCS conference that would take Memphis. The Big 12 decided to take the offer. (Technically Memphis will forgo $10 million dollar in conference TV money payout for the next 15 years and expect to make up the difference with a FedEx sponsorship).


The End of a Classic

With all of the realignment a much grieved casualty would be the Texas/Oklahoma Red River Shootout, which had been played yearly in Dallas at the Texas State Fair. With OU's move to the Big 10 they would be playing 9 conference games and it was deemed politically impossible to not play Oklahoma St, which was enough games against how level opponents as it was, without having another one locked in against Texas. As well the relationship between the schools had been burnt, similarly as had happened between Texas and Texas A+M.

The last game promised to be a good one with both schools entering the game 4-0 and with OU ranked #1 and Texas ranked #6. But it was not to be as the Longhorn defense had no answers for OU QB Laundry and wideouts Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills, Oklahoma won going away, 55-17. It was the high point of the season for Oklahoma who would go on to finish a disappointing 9-3, though that was better than Texas' fall to 7-5.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (5) Oregon over (7) Wisconsin, 45-38
Cotton Bowl: (19) West Virginia over (11) TCU, 52-28
Fiesta Bowl: (2) Alabama over (3) Oklahoma St, 34-27
Sugar Bowl: (4) Stanford over (1) LSU, 17-13
Orange Bowl: (12) Michigan over (16) Clemson, 41-17

#8 Arkansas and #10 South Carolina left out due to 2 teams per conference rule.

#6 Boise St, #9 Kansas St, and #11 Virginia Tech passed over by Orange bowl in favor of Michigan (TCU won the Mt West and got the non AQ conference champion spot).

The bowls, by luck of the bowl selection order, produced a de facto 4 team playoff. Some said this showed their was no need for a formal playoff, others argued instead that they should make things so it always worked this way. The title game featured (1) Alabama against (2) Stanford without much national controversy. Saban won a title with his 2nd team, as Alabama prevailed in the title game 17-10.


Notes:


So I'm going with minimum butterflies cause it's easier. Though this will increase a little with the different schedules. Bowl games (unless they actually played) decided by their bowl game performance and RNG. Fate wanted this one for Bama.

OTL the FedEx president's offer was real and the Big East probably would have gone for it had they not collapsed. Even if Memphis doesn't get FedEx money their TV payout will be higher with the Big 12 - $10 million than they would get in Conference USA. Their academic reputation isn't great but it's better than Boise's.

Moving to the Big 10 is likely a bad move for OU long term since they rely super heavily on Texas for recruiting. That's why they didn't try harder to leave OTL, here of course their relationship with UT went seriously bad so they left anyways.
 
Interesting, now this make me wonder how things would be if the airplane division or the Eastern Seaborne one have worked...
 
2012 Conferences

Jasen777

Donor
2012 Conferences

AQ Conferences (Champion automatically in a BCS game)

8 schools, round-robin schedule, no title game -

ACC Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. St, Wake Forest

Big East -Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia

Big 8 – Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas St, Memphis, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech


PAC 12 - 12 schools, 2 divisions, 9 conference games, protected crossovers as OTL, title game between division winners

North – California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, Washington, Washington St
South – Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, UCLA, USC, Utah


SEC - 16 schools, 4 divisions, 8 conference games, some protected crossovers which I'm not listing (everyone has 2 or 3 and barely plays anyone out of their division or crossover), title game between 2 highest ranked division winners

East – Georgia, Florida, Florida St, South Carolina
Central – Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South – Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Miss. St.
West – Arkansas, LSU, Kansas, Texas A+M


Big 10 - 16 schools, 4 divisions, 9 conference games, crossovers by matrix, title game between 2 highest ranked division or POD winners

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Non AQ conferences –
top ranked champion makes BCS game, subject to selection criteria rules

Conference USA -

East – East Carolina, Marshall, Southern Miss, Temple, UAB, UCF
West - Houston, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP

MAC -

East – Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent St, Miami (OH), Ohio
West – Ball St, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, N. Illinois, Toledo, W. Michigan

Sunbelt - Arkansas St, FAU, FIU, Lou-Lafayette, Lou-Monroe, N. Texas, Middle Tennessee, Troy, W. Kentucky

Mt. West – Air Force, Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, New Mexico, San Diego, UNLV, Wyoming

WAC – Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico St, San Jose St, Utah St, UTSA


Independents
– Army, BYU, Navy, Notre Dame, UMass


Notes: I assume the Big 12 retains the rights to the Big 8 name, here they bring it back to be accurate troll people. I'm too lazy to work out the SEC crossovers.

Here realignment happens with less stealing of schools from minor conferences (for now) or rather didn't destroy the Big East turn it into the non-AQ AAC (for now), and also there's no seen need to expand past 8 for the major conferences (for now), so the smaller conferences are fairing better (for now) and the WAC looks like it's going to survive (for now). Without the trickle down raiding the Sun Belt (for now), several schools are not moving up to FBS.

Hopefully I didn't screw anything up (for now).
 
Wow, amazing job on the Big Ten! I think that actually makes sense. So the two highest ranked division winners and then if I'm understanding right the pods are somehow used in the crossovers.

Well it was once the Big 8, and a couple teams are left from the original Big 8.

Somewhere Dick Vitale in this timeline is making comments about how the conferences thought the field of 64 was so much fun they would start expanding as much as they could to match.

ACC still has 8 teams. I wonder what happens to it in the future.
 

Jasen777

Donor
Wow, amazing job on the Big Ten! I think that actually makes sense. So the two highest ranked division winners and then if I'm understanding right the pods are somehow used in the crossovers.

Every year a team plays the 3 teams in its division and the 3 in it's pod. So a POD is like crossovers except that every team in a pod is playing every team in that pod so it's also like another division. Since that is the case the Big 10 title game will be between the 2 highest ranked division or pod winners. A team also plays 3 of the 9 teams that aren't in its division or pod every year, which rotates every year so they get to play those teams once every three years.
 
Every year a team plays the 3 teams in its division and the 3 in it's pod. So a POD is like crossovers except that every team in a pod is playing every team in that pod so it's also like another division. Since that is the case the Big 10 title game will be between the 2 highest ranked division or pod winners. A team also plays 3 of the 9 teams that aren't in its division or pod every year, which rotates every year so they get to play those teams once every three years.

I love the pod concept, but I can see some people clamoring for more regionally aligned pods/divisions, if only to save on travel time. Plus the way it's set up, a few rivalry games will only be once every three years like the Lil Brown Jug, Illbuck, etc.
 

Jasen777

Donor
I love the pod concept, but I can see some people clamoring for more regionally aligned pods/divisions, if only to save on travel time. Plus the way it's set up, a few rivalry games will only be once every three years like the Lil Brown Jug, Illbuck, etc.

Travel doesn't matter for football (except for extreme situations like Hawaii) and the matrix is football only. Ohio St had little qualms about dumping a yearly Illbuck OTL. Lil Brown Jug was an over look on my part I tried to keep all the pre Penn St trophy games (except the Illbuck). Could just switch Minnesota and Wisconsin's pods around to fix that (apparently Wisconsin and Michigan is not a top level rivalry).

Even besides that, yes there are issues with the matrix approach but there would be issues with any approach. It is subject to change after 3 years so we will see.
 
2012-3

Jasen777

Donor
2012 season

The Big 10 title situation got weird in it's very first season in the new set up. Ohio St went undefeated but was banned from post season play (and therefore the Big 10 title game) as was Penn St. Oklahoma went 10-2 with a loss to Notre Dame out of conference and a surprise loss at Wisconsin to be 8-1 in conference. They won the West Division and as the highest ranked eligible team made the Big 10 championship game. The only other ranked team was Nebraska at 9-3 and 7-2 in conference (losses to Oklahoma, Penn St, and UCLA). But with Penn St ineligible this technically made Nebraska the winner of the Laureates Pod, and thus they got the rematch with OU in the Big 10 title game, where they lost to them again. This was just as well as if there weren't two ranked eligible teams the 2nd spot in the title game would have to have been resolved by a vote of athletic directors.

The SEC had a very strong year with 7 schools ranked in the final top 20 (including all 4 schools in the east division). Newcomer Texas A+M, behind the electric play of Johnny Football, went 11-1 and took down Alabama, but failed to win the West due to a loss to 11-1 LSU. With the East schools beating each other up the SEC title game was a rematch of Alabama and LSU, which Alabama also won.

The PAC saw the continued dual dominance of Oregon and Stanford with this year Stanford having 2 losses but winning the PAC and Oregon completing the season with one loss.

The (re)-newly named Big 8 saw Kansas St go 11-1 in win the conference, with the only blemish a surprising loss in Waco to Baylor.

Clemson went undefeated in the new 8 team ACC, losing their only game to SEC rival South Carolina.

The Big East saw yet another 3-way tie, with Louisville getting the tie breaker this time.

Notre Dame finished the season undefeated, including wins over conference champs Stanford and Oklahoma. They fished the season ranked #1.

10-2 and 15th ranked Boise St got in as the non-AQ representative, to the great disappointment of the MAC where 16th ranked N. Illinois had gone 12-1.


BCS BOWLS

autobid teams in italics

Rose Bowl: (8) Stanford over (10) Oklahoma, 38-20
Cotton Bowl: (3) Texas A+M over (19) Louisville, 47-34
Fiesta Bowl: (5) Kansas St. over (15) Boise St, 27-24
Sugar Bowl: (2) Alabama over (1) Notre Dame, 42-14
Orange Bowl: (4) Oregon over (7) Clemson, 35-27

Notes: All team selections were in by rule before the selection pool expanded to 12 teams for the first time, the AQ champs, Notre Dame via the Notre Dame rule, A+M and Oregon in by the 3-4 ranked rule, and Boise St in by the non-AQ rule.

Alabama's impressive win in what in other systems could have been the title game made it a lock to play in the championship game. The 2nd spot was highly debatable. A+M and Oregon were ranked 3 and 4 and won their bowl games, but hadn't even won their divisions. A+M had beaten Alabama in the regular season, but Oregon's bowl opponent was tougher. Kansas St as a one loss champion and bowl winner was barely considered. In the end voters held firm and gave Alabama a chance to avenge their only loss of their season. Which they did as not even Johnny Football could beat Saban twice in a season and Alabama pocketed back to back titles, beating A+M 27-17.

2013 Off-season

Much of the college football power structure reacted poorly to the all SEC title game and it raised discontent with the unseeded plus one plan to new levels, but it was far from the only complaint about the system. To start with the concept was always kinda silly. Having the BCS games be “semi-finals” but with uneven matchups (a 1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 19, 4 vs. 7 as this year) was criticized. And to their credit, the SEC had always pushed for a seeded plan that would be a de facto 4 team playoff. And now ESPN was lobbying for an outright playoff. The SEC also had complaints that the 2 teams per conference rule was keeping their schools out of the major bowl games they deserved and that this would now be worse with their conference at 16 schools.

The Big East, ACC, and Big 8 (now that OU was gone and Texas was struggling) and the PAC to an extent, felt that their conferences were being overlooked and their teams under-ranked and feared the growing financial gap between the SEC and the Big 10 and their conferences. These things would result and more than just a change in the postseason system.

However deciding on a replacement, if indeed the plus one unseeded system was to be replaced ,was not easy. Slive once again proposed his seeded plus one plan, but the AQ conferences that felt slighted by the ratings did not think that would help necessarily, and the non-AQ conferences felt that it wold likely shut them out of any chance at the title game. The Big 10 and the PAC weren't eager to upset their guaranteed Rose Bowl matchup, but might consider it if the right plan emerged. They lead the push for any “playoff,” which the seeded plan was in all but name, to have only conference champions, or at least, greatly favor conference champions. They did not want something like it would have been this year, 2 teams in it that didn't even win their divisions. But of course with 6 major conferences 2 champions would be sure to be left out every year in a 4 team playoff, even if it were all champions. The SEC counter-argued that prioritizing champions would be unfair to them with their 16 schools, compared to the 8 of some conferences, and that besides their conference was stronger anyways....

No decision would be reached in 2013.
 
2018

Jasen777

Donor
So I got bored with going year by year and decided to jump ahead to 2018 and the next wave of realignment and postseason change.


2018


The ACC, Big East, Big 8, and PAC all grew increasingly concerned over the Big 10 and SEC making much more TV money, getting (what they considered anyways) preferential treatment in the rankings and bowl selections, and generally being considered superior because they had 16 schools and most of the highest profile schools. So realignment speculation started up again as they tried to address this. Meanwhile since no decision had been made to amend the unseeded plus one plan, it was renewed for 4 years.

This 2 issues would align when the ACC and the Big East merged into the Seaboard Conference for football, and the PAC added Texas, Texas Tech, OSU, and Iowa St from the Big 8 (this helped solved the issues of the under-performing PAC network and the Longhorn Network that ESPN wanted to ditch), both getting to 16 schools for the 2018 season. This decreased the number of major conferences from 6 to 4, and there was discussion of having a four team playoff limited to conference champions, but the SEC was intent on having it be the four best teams (a position the Big 10 had started to come around on since this might have benefited them in recent years but the PAC and now the Seaboard were opposed), and the non-major conferences threaten lawsuit if they were excluded.

The eventual comprise, objections from traditionalists blotted out by ESPN cash, was an 8 team playoff. The four major conference champions would qualify automatically and host a quarter-final on their home field. The highest ranked non-major conference champion would also automatically qualify (and would even host a quarterfinal if they were in the top 4 at the expense of the lowest ranked major conference champion). The remaining 3 spots would go to the highest ranked teams, with no limit on the number a conference could have. Semi-final and Championship games would be put out for sites to bid on (the highest seeded team reaming after the quarterfinals would have the right to select between the 2 semi-final locations). Bowls would no doubt take a serious prestige hit.

Playoff seeding explanation -

Seed 1 through 4 are reserved for the champions of the AQ conferences. The highest ranked non-AQ conference champ gets a spot and so do the three other highest ranked teams by the Playoff rankings, a renamed BCS formula (still an average of the ranks of the Harris and Coaches polls with ties broken by computer polls), these 4 teams are seeded 5-8 in order of their ranking. An exception is if the non-AQ champ is ranked in the top 4, in which case they are seeded in the top 4 according to ranking and the lowest ranked AQ champ drops to the 5th seed.


2018 Conferences -

AQ Conferences (Champion automatically in Playoffs)


Seaboard Conference – A football only conference (schools are in the ACC and Big East respectively for other sports) with divisions identical to the old ACC / Big East conferences. Teams play the other 7 schools in their division and 2 from the other. Notre Dame is contracted to play 5 games a year against Seaboard schools. The title game is between the 2 division winners, unless Notre Dame has a better or equal winning percentage in their contracted games and is ranked higher than a division winner, in which case Notre Dame take the place of the lowest ranked division winner.

Atlantic - Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. St, Wake Forest
East - Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse, UConn, West Virginia
Other - Notre Dame


PAC 16 – Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

West - California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St
East - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah


SEC - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. 1 of the 2 crossover is a permanent match-up, the other rotates among the remaining 7. Perhaps Alabama/Tennessee, Arkansas/Virginia Tech, Auburn/Georgia, Kansas/Kentucky, LSU/Florida, Mississippi/South Carolina , Miss St/ Vanderbilt , Texas A+M/Florida St for the protected crossovers.

East - Georgia, Florida, Florida St, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
West - Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Miss. St, Texas A+M


Big 10 - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue, Virginia
West – Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Wisconsin


Non-AQ Conferences – (Highest ranked champion automatically in playoffs)


Mt. West - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners. Presumably no protected crossovers.

West - Boise St, BYU, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV
East - Air Force, Baylor, Colorado St, Kansas St, New Mexico, Memphis, TCU, Wyoming


Conference USA - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East – East Carolina, FAU, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Temple, UAB, UCF
West – Houston, Louisiana Tech, N. Texas, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP


MAC - Teams play the 6 in their division and 3 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.


East – Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent St, Miami (OH), Ohio, UMass
West – Ball St, C. Michigan, E. Michigan, N. Illinois, Toledo, W. Kentucky, W. Michigan


Sunbelt - Teams play the 7 in their division and 2 from the other division every year. Title game is between the two division winners.

East - Appalachian St, Charlotte, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia St, Old Dominion, S. Alabama,Troy
West - Arkansas St, Idaho, Lou-Lafayette, Lou-Monroe, New Mexico St, Texas St, Utah St, UTSA


Independents – Army, Liberty, Navy

Notes: After everyone mocked the Big 10 matrix system (especially the POD names) they decided to go with the a simple and neat solution, though at the expense of some rivalries and only playing the other division teams once every four years. This started the trend of 2-8 team divisions instead of possible 4-4 team divisions. The SEC got talked into having a 9 game conference schedule so the other major conferences wouldn't shame them (they're still going to be playing Sunbelt schools in November however).

This TL saw Texas cling to it's network to the bitter end (driving half the conference away), but they finally had to give it up when it wasn't making money for ESPN but also the Big 8's status as a major conference was starting to be in danger. (The network isn't making ESPN money OTL either but the Big 12 is in much better shape than TTL's Big 8).

The PAC took Iowa St over Kansas St because Iowa St is an AAU member and that made it easier for the PAC university presidents to accept the expansion.

Talks from the four remaining Big 8 members to form a conference with the best Mt. West and Conference USA schools in order to make a fifth major conference, or likely failing that to at least dominant the non-AQ spot so that they almost were, failed due to disagreement between the Mt. West and Conference USA schools over who would get in. The Big 8 leftovers joined the Mt. West along with BYU and 3 WAC schools in order to get to 16. They are expected to be the best non-AQ conference but Conference USA will be competitive for that playoff spot.

Conference USA loaded up on Sun Belt schools to get to 16, and the Sun Belt welcomed a wave of new 1-A schools to replace them, along with the remains of the WAC.

I just intend to make one more post next week about how the 2018 season goes.
 
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