Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank

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So the three of them combined are no better than the Tsar?

Oh, no. They are a lot better, they actually intend to make peace. They just think that they can do better than unconditionally surrendering. The idea is that if they hold out a bit longer (retreating, but defending), they can impress the Germans with the cost of continuing the war. That's not going to work, as they will soon find out, but they have no way of knowing that for sure.

Some time back we had a huge discussion about A-H and if it would make it. What's the situation in Vienna right now?

Enormous relief, even a degree of elation. The Empire has faced its greatest test and passed it. Of course, very soon there will be the issue of an imperial succession to confront.
 
Could appear incredible how both the Russian goverments - the one at the start of the war and the current one - both lack of any common sense, but? After commenting so far, I am not surprised anymore?

I am wondering at this point if the German peace offer will not become a capitulation if the Russians continue to be so inane. As absurd it could sound, isn't better for Russia accepting Germany to redraw the lines of the Empire as their own pleasure?
 

Faeelin

Banned
Enormous relief, even a degree of elation. The Empire has faced its greatest test and passed it. Of course, very soon there will be the issue of an imperial succession to confront.

I forget, did we decide Austria-Hungary will break up? It would be amusing if the Promised Land also ends with a functional Danubian state.
 
And Britain doesn't have a lot of good options to restore the balance by the time Germany is recovered enough to require balancing. They have a Japanese alliance, sure, but that's a regional fix, and a potentially dangerous one. An American alliance really isn't on offer, and France, well... The smart move is to formally federate with the settler dominions on whatever terms London can get, but by 1908, that ship has probably sailed.

Nonetheless, it's still better to be Britain in this timeline in 1910 than it was Britain in OTL in 1920.

if i recall the spoilers earlier, britain will have a different kind of problem ittl.
later on they will have the feeling that they should have dealt with france now.

a anglo-german alliance against the franco-russian axis might be what will be ittl.
alliances aren't written in stone, and with the influx of money, france can become quite a danger for britain ittl, while the war reduces the german danger for a while. france was their traditional enemy.
 
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On a somewhat different topic; the fate of the Czech legion. If they get dumped into the Caucasian meat grinder, one can only wonder what will happen to them (also whether they will pull off a daring escape a la OTL).
 
Oh man, I just found this and it's really long. Can I please have an overview :p?

Kaiser Wilhelm (the one you know) dies young, with his son Wilhelm (who you almost certainly don't) succeeding to the throne; the new kaiser grows to majority with his uncle running things (especially the navy, which is smaller and more Europe-oriented). Young Wilhelm is a huge nerd.

The French rightists launch a coup and discredit themselves; their opponents set out to remake the country as a secular democracy. The Russian right fringe effectively comes to power; it's not good for the country. Russia fights Japan as it did historically, and loses more badly in the East and less badly on the water, unfortunately alienating the French in the process. The young kaiser gets a little too enthusiastic supporting the Japanese, and things go badly wrong for pretty much everybody who lives east of the Rhine.

In theme? Basically, two things. First, events slowly accumulate that will see history go wonderfully right for Germany and the Germans in the long haul, even when that requires things to go terribly wrong for generation or two before that point. Second, the timeline seems to constantly flaunt the fact that it is at once very dark, and much better for everyone than what happened historically.

It's an incredible timeline and you should read it. I include the discussion in the comments when I say that, as therein many obscure hints are made clear.

I was going to add more highlights but it occurs to me rereading AM's capsule he's trying to avoid too many spoilers for you. Of course if you read the latest updates or debates, you'll be getting some of them anyway.

I'll just say now--the manner in which the young Kaiser gets "overenthusiastic" in aiding the Japanese has created another new nation by now, one birthed and baptized in blood--the title refers to it (I think!:eek::p) Oh, and the Kaiser's friends and enemies are not who they were OTL (judging by actions if not always words)--but...well, if you only read canon posts you'll have some surprises ahead; most of us are reading this through a lens that is more about suspense than surprise, thanks to out-of-canon author spoilers aka "Word of God."

And yes, despite the worst that has happened yet, and much worse still to come, we are told, in a later generation's time, it still sucks less than OTL!

At least outside of Russia.:eek:

I forget, did we decide Austria-Hungary will break up? It would be amusing if the Promised Land also ends with a functional Danubian state.

We didn't.

I certainly never agreed it would be likely to. Anyway if it does it will be despite a situation far more favorable than OTL and despite the northern German Reich's best efforts to keep it together.

I've seen speculation about how Germany might want to see the southern Empire fail and pick the pieces up selectively, but I think it is evident it is more in northern Germany's interest if the Empire stays intact, with its claims on all its far-flung territories. It is a question of whether it is possible to manage the centrifugal forces that have already built up, but coming out of this war the Empire is obviously nowhere near as badly bled as OTL; the monarchy is nowhere near as discredited. They are on the winning side, no foreign power has contacted any strong Bohemian independence movements with promises of supporting their secession post-war, and any such words from Russian agents have to be taken with grains of salt since Russia is losing so terribly. As the author just said, the Hapsburg Empire's society and political structure are in flux now, but not the flux of failure and breakdown; so institutions, deals, and political alignments that can support solutions based on retaining the overarching Empire and monarchy are clearly in the cards, and these will be the ones both the wiser heads of the Empire itself and their German allies will be fumbling for, and shoring up.
 
I am not so sure the British French relations will get good. I seem to remember that the French are planning a massive naval programm. Now that the Germans are somewhat out of breath.

The whole TL heavily relies on an ongoing British-French competition, while Germany conducts a rather reconciliatory foreign policy. Part of that is Germany building a small fleet destined against the Russians and implicitly relying on Britain keeping the sea lines open, while France buidls a Hochseeflotte. For Germany to become the "Geloybte Aretz", I think that British-French tensions must stay high.

Directly after this war, there's a good chance that this will indeed be the case. The Germans will be exhausted and will be even more reconciliatory - no more issues needed here! They may build up Mitteleuropa, but it will look weakened, will not be an imperialist zone of German dominance, and will be highly popular even in Britain as a bullwark against those crazy Russians.

France on the other side just sat by the side while its most important ally got heavily beaten, while Germany came up victorious. Unfortunately, a rather typical reaction of politicians to such a situation is foreign policy adventures and doing something for national pride. I'd expect the French to seek some minor confrontations with Britain.

With the Ottomans victorious in a rather short war, I'd expect some problems here. Particularly now that they have even more restive Christian subjects. Maybe the French get their adventure here? Or something about Italy? Or rather Italy vs. Ottomans? In either case, I expect Germany, Russia and AH will try to stay out of international crises for the next years, while Britain will be in the role of the only policeman and France will be in the role of the troublesome bully whose best buddy got beaten up really, really bad.


By the way, what are the demographic consequences for Germany and AH ITTL in comparison to OTL?
 
Directly after this war, there's a good chance that this will indeed be the case. The Germans will be exhausted and will be even more reconciliatory - no more issues needed here! They may build up Mitteleuropa, but it will look weakened, will not be an imperialist zone of German dominance, and will be highly popular even in Britain as a bullwark against those crazy Russians.

Well, all of these new states will be within the German economic sphere, and will really have no choice but to have defensive alliances with Germany as protection against inevitable Russian revanchism. So perhaps it depends on how you define "imperialist" and "zone of dominance."

Certainly it won't look anything like Generalplan Ost. But then no one has that as a basis of comparison.

Of course, if I were an Estonian or Finn or Pole or even a Rumanian I'd much prefer life in this new German Mitteleuropa (effects of the war notwithstanding) over Russian rule and dominance. Wouldn't really be a contest.

With the Ottomans victorious in a rather short war, I'd expect some problems here. Particularly now that they have even more restive Christian subjects.

Can't recall if Carlton has spoken to this, but I have to think that a Balkan War is inevitable before too long. I don't see how the Turks can hold on to much beyond eastern Thrace in the long run.

But that Balkan War (or Wars) may look somewhat different from what happened in OTL. Certainly Berlin is going to have a larger say in any settlement.
 
On a somewhat different topic; the fate of the Czech legion. If they get dumped into the Caucasian meat grinder, one can only wonder what will happen to them (also whether they will pull off a daring escape a la OTL).
I had a sudden vision of the outline of a giant Czechoslovakia superimposed on Siberia, with Prague where Omsk was, and Bratislava over Irkutsk. Then reality reasserted itself.
 
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Well, all of these new states will be within the German economic sphere, and will really have no choice but to have defensive alliances with Germany as protection against inevitable Russian revanchism. So perhaps it depends on how you define "imperialist" and "zone of dominance."

Certainly it won't look anything like Generalplan Ost. But then no one has that as a basis of comparison.

Of course, if I were an Estonian or Finn or Pole or even a Rumanian I'd much prefer life in this new German Mitteleuropa (effects of the war notwithstanding) over Russian rule and dominance. Wouldn't really be a contest.



Can't recall if Carlton has spoken to this, but I have to think that a Balkan War is inevitable before too long. I don't see how the Turks can hold on to much beyond eastern Thrace in the long run.

But that Balkan War (or Wars) may look somewhat different from what happened in OTL. Certainly Berlin is going to have a larger say in any settlement.

Balkan wars will be much more difficult for christians ITTL.

OTL the first was Serbia allying Bulgaria, this backed by Russia - to make sure they cant really lose. And finally a separate alliance between Serbia and Greece - Greece and Bulgaria could never agree on who should get Saloniki so no alliance there. This all to fight the Ottomans.

And the second one was the victors fighting over the spoils wich meant everyone ganging up on Bulgaria.

ITTL Serbia is out - a puppet of Austria and i dont think Austria will let it try a war like this. That leaves Bulgaria and Greece against the Ottomans. But for that they will have to agree - which they never managed OTL. Than they need backing from a GP - this could only be France as Italy just fought a war against Ottomans and i dont think it would be enough of a GP supporter. The rest are either the allies of the Ottos or at least interested in maintaining them.

If Bulgaria and Greece manages to agree and get the backing of France, and Germany and Austria wont interfere because they just ended another big war then they might have a chance - but without the Serbs and Montenegro against a stronger Ottoman Empire as OTL it will be hard.

If they still manage to win then the second Balkan war might be much more interesting: without the Serbs Bulgaria will have a chance to win - AFAIK they nearly managed to beat the greeks OTL - but were beaten badly by Serbia and the Ottomans and had no troops between the romanians and Sofia.

The deciding factor might be Romania: if they jump in on the Greek side than i think Greece will win - or better said Bugaria lose. This would give much of today Macedonia to Greece.

But the Romanians were active in the Great war and just got Bessarabia and who knows what else - they might decide to stay out. If Bulgaria wins we will have a Great Bulgaria with Macedonia, Saloniki and Adrianople.

I dont think that in either scenario Albania is changed much: neither Austria nor Italy will let that happen.

Of course there is a chance that after they beat the Ottos they will hold to what they agreed on beforehand - an unlikely scenario IMO. The reason for thi is that whatever they agreed on about Saloniki this treaty would most likely give Greece Albania - which they wont get thanks to Italy and Austria. And they will finish the war earlier - Bulgaria will still be fighting in Thrace while Greece - robbed of Albania will face a very weakly occupied Bulgarian zone - as Bulgaria will have his troops fighting in Thrace. This would be very much like OTL. We know the result of that.
 

Faeelin

Banned
It occurs to me that these Balkan Wars might see an assertive Austrian Empire pushing for Thessalonica. Hrm.
 
It occurs to me that these Balkan Wars might see an assertive Austrian Empire pushing for Thessalonica. Hrm.

That depends on when these wars happen and on how stupid the Austrian leadership is.

i dont think they would get involved if the war breaks out only after a few years of the great war. It may have been a much needed victory but it cost them a lot. Most likely it will be followed by internal turmail - the death of FJ and the national struggle beginning in earnest in Hungary and problems in Bohemia and Galicia.

Before the war Hungary was pretty succesfull in opressing its minorities - no mass demonstrations or anything of the sort. I think this will change after the war. There will be a lot of ex soldiers with training and some weapons, not to mention its hard to imagine they can deny voting rights for veterans. This in itself will destabilize the system - before the war only a really small percentage of the populace could vote - one of the reasons the elit tried so hard to keep this up was that this way the national minorities were nearly without representation in the parlaiment. This will change.

In Bohemia the existence of the Bohemian legion will be hard to forget - this could lead to various results. But im sure there will be a lot of bad blood left.

In Galicia the Poles will be trouble. Some will really want to join Poland while others - the relligious and the well to do elements might not like that idea that much after seeing the new Poland.

A complete internal reorganisation of the Empire may happen in the near future.

Anyway, my conclusion is that Austria will be in no shape to fight another big war and would be pretty stupid to annex all the territory down to Saloniki - it would bring far too much new trouble to an already very troubled Empire. But i dont question the fact that there will be some in the Austrian leadership/elit who will want an expansion like this.

If the Balkan war/wars happen a few decades later they might get involved. But i still think it would be pretty stupid for them to do so.
 

abc123

Banned
The Honour of the Nation demands a victory...

I wonder, did Grand Prince Nikolay decided to resume with paying of Russian debt to France and other foreign investors? It seems as pretty normal thing to do...


Also, in Russia, what will happen to PU? It seems to me that regents will not discard them ( and ideology of Integralism ) so easily, they will only change the leading people there...
 
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17 April 1908, Taganrog

The station was full of soldiers. Guardsmen stood almost shoulder to shoulder, barring access to the platform and blocking the view of any accidental passers-by. The Ismailovsky Regiment had drawn on its last reserves to provide enough manpower for this operation, and Lieutenant-Colonel Kutekov had been in service long enough to appreciate how much that meant at a time when men, uniforms, rifles, machine guns and horses were all in short supply. The train now waiting along the platform under the walls of the old fortress was fully manned. Ten freight cars for the infantry – that made two hundred men – four for the machine gun sections, bristling with Maxim barrels in boiler-plated sponsons, two passenger cars for the officers and officials, and the ones in the middle. A second train would travel ahead of them, with soldiers to secure the route and supplies to ensure nobody went hungry on the long journey. It was an insane amount of effort to go through, but the country required it.

Ahead, Dr Shimenovski stepped out of the middle car, accompanied by a cadet, the commander of Taganrog fortress, and his secretary. He seemed content with what he had seen, nodding and signing off on the papers the young man held out.

“We may depart, colonel.” He indicated. “The cargo is complete.”

Nobody had ever mentioned it by name. Seventy tonnes of gold, ingots and coins, loaded into the train over the course of ten hours by hand-picked, reliable soldiers and counted by representatives of the finance ministry, the bank, and the military. This, it had been decided, was the only compromise the French would accept. Now, it would be the task of Kutekov and his detail to bring it across the country to Astrakhan and thence to Abushehr, where it would be taken on board a French vessel. On arrival in Paris, the banks would once again consider Russia a solvent partner,. Or so it was said – whether anyone would buy Russian debt again was uncertain. The regency council insisted on the transfer to secure its international standing as much as its fragile supply of war materials from neutral powers.

“Shall we go, then, Dr Shimenoski?” Kutekov suiggested.

The official nodded, steadying his pince-nez. Rings under his eyes betrayed the fatigue of standing on guard over the cargo for interminable hours.

“I could use some strong tea en route.” He pointed out.

A sentry opened the carriage door for the two men, saluting smartly. He, too, must have been on duty for a while. Kutekov closed and bolted the door from the inside, motioning him away.

“Tea will not be a problem.” The colonel pointed out. “We will not be living as well as in Moscow, but far better than we did at the front. Now, since we will be spending many days together – do you play cards?”

The train shuddered as it slowly gathered speed, making its way out of the station. Four days east, then the river steamers and the Caspian liner… the only secure link to friendly powers. Kutekov shook his head. This was not a place he wanted his mind to go. Carefully, he opened a cupboard and too up two tea glasses. The samovar in the corner was humming, unobtrusively served by an attentive batman. Hot, strong, black and sweet – a soldier’s tea. Shimenovski would have to get used to it.
 
17 April 1908, Taganrog

Is it really worth it to throw away all that gold to recover a tiny sliver of financial respectability? Lenders and investors aren't going to trust them anyway.

I think default might actually be better for Russia in the long run. They are terminally screwed anyway, might as well keep the gold and invest it in the industry after the storm blows over.
 
Is it really worth it to throw away all that gold to recover a tiny sliver of financial respectability? Lenders and investors aren't going to trust them anyway.

I think default might actually be better for Russia in the long run. They are terminally screwed anyway, might as well keep the gold and invest it in the industry after the storm blows over.

It is not, but the regency council have - convictions. A gentleman pays his debts while he can. Gold is just about the only thing Russia still has enough of.
 
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