Do you think that a Russian Civil War will happen ITTL? Communism doesn't exist, but I'm thinking it'd be something like Imperials/Monarchists vs Republicans. France is already a Constitutional Monarchy by this point, and any rebellion in the other Bourbon states would be crushed by the French, but Russia is probably either an absolute monarchy or just started the process of reforming (as was the case IOTL), and the loss in the war and humiliation of losing much of their territory could lead to the Czar losing all credibility in the eyes of much of the Russian public.
English Canada/French Carolina: A Timeline
- Thread starter Gabingston
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I feel like we're due for a civil war/revolution somewhere; France has bungled two major wars, barring successes in India, and their monarchy apparently is helpless to stop British inflicted humiliations. Floridie might well try and break away, or otherwise begin a policy of industrializing after their agrarian focused economy led to two smashing defeats in a row.
The Spanish colonies might be a good place as well; New Spain in particular could develop a restiveness identity, after so many attacks by the Anglo-Americans and little help from Spain.
Basically, something has to give.
Also, I'd love to see a Cold War between Monarchists and OTL French Revolutionary-style radical Republicans.
La Floride was doomed to lose to the Commonwealth because of a 6:1 demographic disparity. They can't do a whole lot right now since they're under American occupation, but that's not going to last very long (a decade at most). Post-independence, I could see a rapidly industrializing Florida. There's already some industry around Mons (OTL Birmingham, Alabama) because of the iron reserves, and they still have a ton of oil and natural gas in Texas and Oklahoma.
The Spanish already had their hands tied fighting in Europe, and New Spain has the same problems as La Floride (a massive demographic disadvantage, lack of industry and history of exploitation towards much of their population). They're also under American occupation as of now, and should become independent around the same time as La Floride.
There's the argument made by @Skallagrim that the French Revolution was a lightning in a bottle situation that was unlikely to happen at any other time, but I've heard many others say that an event like that was only a matter of time, and Russia is probably the most fertile ground for a Radical Revolution of any country. It has all of the same problems that Ancien Regime France had (an out of touch aristocracy, a restless urban middle class that had little representation, economic issues, bad harvests etc.). It's no wonder that Russia was the country that went Communist IOTL, albeit not without a nasty civil war, which I think is quite likely ITTL too.
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Skallagrim
Banned
I stand by my view on the French Revolution, although that doesn't imply that all radical revolutions are vanishingly unlikely. OTL (in both the Russian and French cases, as well as other examples) shows that you need the right (or, as it often turns out, the very wrong) combination of 1) certain serious pre-existing tensions, 2) a government that does things the exact wrong way, 3) a direct impetus that allows for matters to get criticial, and 4) certain random decisions that happen to push things over the edge.
France and Russia had (1) and (2) in spades, as you've noted. In both cases, (3) also came about: in France, dramatic crop failures that hit France disproportionally hard because of the Frenxh mercantillist policies, resulting in food shortages that soon escalated into uprisings; in Russia, World War One and the way this totally wrecked the country, compounded by the fact that Russia lost and the government accepted a humiliating peace. I note that in both cases, even a single serious stroke of good luck would have staved off the crisis sufficiently to prevent things from going critical. This wouldn't mean smooth sailing, but there would have been just that little bit more lee-way. And then there is (4), which in France came down to a number of easily avoidable decisions (e.g. the precise circumstances of the way representation of the Estates was handled; the precise wording on one speech that was unintentially inflammatory...); and which in Russia boiled down to the easily-butterflied fact that the Germans sent Lenin over to cause trouble, which went "horribly right", as they say.
My point isn't that revolutions are so unlikely, but that you need the circumstances to be just right for them to actually go through. Saying that conditions (1) and (2) are met isn't sufficient, and even meeting condition (3) is no guarantee; you still need that one random fuck-up that results in condition (4) being met. That being said: it isn't hard to contrive such an eventuality, nor is it implausible. Russia, given a path similar to OTL, does meet the first two conditions, so given the right crisis and the right "horrible variable" occurring, it is a likely candidate for some kind of revolution.
Oh yeah, my bad! I was thinking in terms of La Floridie. They got smashed twice, if my memory isn't tricking me again.
So I just got done reading this timeline (all 35 pages of it) and woah is the world a different place than OTL. Neither better nor worse, just different. Probably my favorite story on here. Part of it's because of how easy it is to follow and partly because of my low-key interest in studying European colonization. Between this story making the South French, me making it independent and separate from the USA (in 1787), and a third story making it stay with the British during the American Revolution, this MIGHT be the beginning of a trend. Keep up the good work and now I'm watching this.
Part 75: The Flames Of Rebellion
Part 75: The Flames of Rebellion
The Second Global War officially ended with the Treaty of Zurich on the First of May, 1916, but that didn’t mean that the fighting was over. In the victorious countries, the end of the war was met with rapturous celebration and a high that would last for years. In the losing countries, however, the reaction was a mix of humiliation and outrage, especially in those countries that lost territory. Many in France viewed the King as weak because of him signing the humiliating peace (although Paris likely would’ve ended up a giant pile of rubble had he not), and France saw a variety of rebellions in the years to follow, from Republicans to Radicals to Militarists, and while none of them ultimately succeeded (think of OTL’s Paris Commune as a comparison), it did show a wide dissatisfaction with the status quo among the French public. Similar revolts occurred in the other Bourbon states of Spain and Naples, as well as in Cisalpina, although all of them failed too. During the decade following the war, millions emigrated from the losing countries, the largest recipient of these emigres being Brazil, but more on that in a coming update.
However, the country that faced the biggest strife during the postwar years was Russia. The Russian political structure was severely antiquated, and while there was a growing industrialization (as mentioned in a previous update), the economy was overwhelmingly agricultural and feudal(ish). Serfdom had been abolished, but most Russians could accurately be described as peasants. Many Russians, especially in the growing middle and (non-noble) upper class were dissatisfied with the Absolute Monarchy, with the more moderate ones advocating a British-style Constitutional Monarchy, while the radicals advocated getting rid of the Monarchy entirely and establishing a Republic. Combine this with the humiliation that came from the Treaty of Zurich and the loss of the Baltics and Ukraine, and you had a recipe for a long, hard road ahead… But that’s for another update.
The First Global War has no OTL analogue, but the Second Global War is definitely a WW1 analogue, and the losers are VERY bitter about their defeat, so I'm assuming there will be another war. However, there will not be a Holocaust ITTL, as a poll earlier ITTL dictated that there won't be a Nazi-analogue ITTL (and even if there was, France doesn't have nearly as large a Jewish population as Germany/German-occupied territory during WW2). I could see a Right-Wing Authoritarian regime coming to power in France and/or Russia, but it'd be a lot more like Mussolini or Franco. Not good by any means, but not as terrible as Hitler. Also, Communism doesn't exist ITTL (although there still are Far-Left movements), so we're spared the horrors of Stalin and Mao too.
So, here’s what I’m thinking for the New World
- New Spain and La Floride become independent Republics. The Commonwealth would definitely not want the Bourbons back in North America, so that’s why they’re not Monarchies. New Spain probably changes its name to something like Mexico or Aztlan.
- However, one of the former Spanish colonies does end up with a Bourbon monarch, most likely New Granada.
- OTL’s Bolivia and (maybe) Paraguay break away from the rest of La Plata due to cultural differences and geographic distance.
- Chile is either independent or part of La Plata.
- Cuba and OTL’s Dominican Republic become independent.
- I’m not sure about Saint-Domingue/Haiti. On the one hand, the Americans wouldn’t want any significant French colony nearby, but all of the colonial powers might be too racist to allow an independent Black country in the New World.
- The Commonwealth of America keeps the Panama Canal.
I say either Britain gains control of Haiti or maybe Haiti and OTL’s Dominican Republic become a single independent country.
Just my 2¢ though.
Just my 2¢ though.