Could Vietnam keep its independence?

[Vinization]

Like it says on the tin. Before its subjugation at the hands of France, Vietnam was an empire that was in the process of expanding its borders southward, in the Mekong Delta and Cambodia.

So, was there any way it could've kept its independence? Is it a matter of not providing the French with a casus belli (the persecution of Christians, in this case), or would they need a strong ally? Could they retake Saigon?

 

[tonsofun]

As long as there are Christians in Vietnam, the French have an excuse to invade. Anytime the Christians are unhappy, they can claim prosecution which brings in the French or any other European power that wants to expand their empire.
You either need to find a way to stop Vietnamese people converting to Christianity or you Vietnam needs to modernize on its own to the point where European powers and local Christians don't feel confident of taking control.

 

[Leonidas]

If the Lê Văn Khôi revolt succeeded, the new dynasty would be more tolerant of Vietnamese Catholics and French missionaries. This wouldn't necessarily protect Vietnam from European imperialism, but the French could treat it as a client state rather than a colony.

 

[Vinization]

I just found out about Nguyen Phuc Canh, who was emperor Gia Long's original heir before his untimely death at the age of 20. Perhaps he'd be less of an isolationist than Minh Mang was, considering he was sent to Paris at the age of seven? He'd definitely not persecute Christians, assuming his wikipedia article is truthful. Of course, there'll be consequences if he goes too far in his support of Catholicism, as Ngo Dinh Diem found out a century later.

 

[Onedotman]

Vietnam had been indebted with France since the 1787 Treaty of Versailles, and IOTL the French made Vietnam pay hell for it. The earliest POD I can come up with is to butterfly away this Franco-Vietnamese alliance, which would likely prevent Gia Long's rise to power. How a surviving Tây Sơn dynasty would deal with Western powers is a whole different issue though. However, if Quang Trung/his descendants could continue their hard line against China, I can see Vietnam being backed by the West against a hostile Qing.

 

[trainvoi]

Vietnam had been indebted with France since the 1787 Treaty of Versailles, and IOTL the French made Vietnam pay hell for it. The earliest POD I can come up with is to butterfly away this Franco-Vietnamese alliance, which would likely prevent Gia Long's rise to power. How a surviving Tây Sơn dynasty would deal with Western powers is a whole different issue though. However, if Quang Trung/his descendants could continue their hard line against China, I can see Vietnam being backed by the West against a hostile Qing.

Personally, I don't think the West would back Vietnam against Qing - the West would have no interest in modernizing an Asian country, especially after the First Opium War.
There is also a good timeline about a surviving Tay Son dynasty: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/lotus-empire-a-tay-son-timeline.410768/ (sadly the thread is dead)

Vietnam could definitely keep its independence even if the Nguen dynasty suppress the Vietnamese Christians - you will be surprised how many times the Vietnamese would be able to dislodge the French beachhead in Saigon if the Vietnamese general have been bold in the first French conquest of Vietnam (1858)
Independence after the 1880s would definitely require the adoption and integration of Western-style military and industrial production.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Any of these places could have kept their independence if they had figured out a way to industrialize without going into debt to the Europeans. The industrialization process brought with it the problem of how much of the native civilization, which had not industrialized, to keep.

Thailand kept its independence. There is no reason Vietnam could have done so and they probably would have just needed better luck.

 

[raharris1973]

...and Thailand's industrialization was quite limited.

For Vietnam, even though it involves a bit too much white savior-ism, here's an idea:
The Vietnamese monarchy, seeing the French Empire that stole the Cochinchina and the Cambodian protectorate get clobbered by the Prussians in 1871 pays top-thaler/top-reichsmark/top-deutschmark for a Prussian/German advisory mission right after the war for military and governmental affairs, much like the Jacob Meckel mission to Japan.

The German advisors are unusually fastidious and conscientious about performing their duties for their Vietnamese clients, and their Vietnamese clients and students, still holding sovereignty over Tonkin and Annam, are unusually attentive and malleable. The Vietnamese also wisely pay for lessons and gear on cash, not credit. The French can't really do anything expansive in the 1871-1873 timeframe while metro France is still under occupation/partial occupation. Importantly, while Bismarck is fine with taking Viet money and trade and letting advisors do their job, he is firm that this is a business arrangement, not a colonial relationship or an alliance commitment, and German officer trainers aren't to get involved with Viet forces in the field against French held lands. The German advisory contract, while it's a provocation causing many French in Saigon and Pnomh Penh to urge adventures to the north, functions as a deterrent to the Paris government for another 5 to 10 years, not wanting 'complications', and Paris definitely keeps a leash on its 'men on the spot' because of potential global implications. When France is ready to be more aggressive in the later 1880s with the Boulanger boomlet, the Vietnamese are also much more ready to resist encroachment, and their development has made them an attractive trading partner for multiple foreign powers, not just the Germans, but the British in particular, also the Dutch, the Japanese, the Italians, Russians, and Americans. Internationally supported Vietnamese surveying by this time has also already proven that the Red River and Mekong River upriver country mainly leads to the underdeveloped Yunnan interior, not particular rich Chinese eldorado's the French were hoping for when they OTL got started with the Tonkin and Laos colonies.

 

[raharris1973]

As long as there are Christians in Vietnam, the French have an excuse to invade. Anytime the Christians are unhappy, they can claim prosecution which brings in the French or any other European power that wants to expand their empire.

Probably true. That's why I put more 'trust' in scenarios where European scenarios hobble France's ability to commit to intervention than in scenarios that rely purely on Vietnamese authorities being more kind and tolerant to Vietnamese Christians and western missionaries.

But I think that Vietnamese tolerance and patience, by removing pretexts can head off intervention *at particular moments*. For example, what ifthe Vietnamese Emperor treads lightly on all Christian sects in the 1850s, as much out of fear of attracting the wrathful attention of nearby Chinese Taipings, as westerners? The Taipings remain a concern from the 1850s into the 1860s. Meanwhile, for the French, as 1858 turns to 1859, their attention turns to the Second War of Italian independence and war with Austria, by 1860, they've pretty much wrapped up their military involvement with nearby China in the Arrow War, and by 1861 the fad of the day is getting involved in Mexico.

The Taipings, being crushed, are no longer a fear factor for the Vietnamese by 1866, so maybe the Vietnamese could go medieval on Vietnamese Christians starting from then. Even so, France may not be as prone to intervene while more concerned with Prussia and extricating from Mexico. In any case, it is a narrow window until the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, meaning potentially no Cochinchina foothold protectorate during the life of the 2nd Empire at all.

If the Lê Văn Khôi revolt succeeded, the new dynasty would be more tolerant of Vietnamese Catholics and French missionaries. This wouldn't necessarily protect Vietnam from European imperialism, but the French could treat it as a client state rather than a colony.

So keeping it whole? Not breaking off Cochinchina as a separate protectorate, but exerting heavy influence of the Imperial regime in the capital at Hue or Hanoi? And maybe not a direct French protectorate on Cambodia, but a shared one, expanding at the expense of the Thai controlled zone, a 'Franco-Vietnamese Cambodia' (name inspired by Anglo-Egyptian Sudan) Maybe process repeated with Laos later.

Vietnam had been indebted with France since the 1787 Treaty of Versailles, and IOTL the French made Vietnam pay hell for it. The earliest POD I can come up with is to butterfly away this Franco-Vietnamese alliance, which would likely prevent Gia Long's rise to power. How a surviving Tây Sơn dynasty would deal with Western powers is a whole different issue though. However, if Quang Trung/his descendants could continue their hard line against China, I can see Vietnam being backed by the West against a hostile Qing.

It would be interesting to see that develop.

you will be surprised how many times the Vietnamese would be able to dislodge the French beachhead in Saigon if the Vietnamese general have been bold in the first French conquest of Vietnam (1858)

Really! Would be interesting to see, I wonder if Louis Napoleon would come back for revenge year after year, or if he would let himself get distracted from Vietnam by his other wars and interventions, starting with his intervention against Austria in Italy (1859), and only try after a long break or never get around to it before being deposed.

if they had figured out a way to industrialize without going into debt to the Europeans

What could Vietnam have sold for export year after year to build a surplus for an investment fund, partly to be spent on foreign education, advice, and foreign technology, while using debt in a responsible and limited way?

The Japanese I think sold emergency shipping supplies (coal), probably overpriced, some silver and copper, and later on labor on which they got some remittances. I don't know what the Vietnamese had, but I suppose on the average year they had a rice surplus and they could harvest tropical hardwoods and medicines. Over time they could expand fruit growing operations and other cash crops. I'm not sure what the Siamese exported and how they controlled debt.

 

[Domz]

I think it's possible that Vietnam could have survived as an independent state, albeit smaller. Maybe it keeps the North while losing the South to France. Continuous loses results in the Vietnamese elite reforming and Westernizing, but before being completely colonized, like Burma being confined to Upper Burma between the Second and Third Anglo-Burmese Wars and Westernizing somewhat effectively, albeit too little too late.

 

[Xenophonte]

But I think that Vietnamese tolerance and patience, by removing pretexts can head off intervention *at particular moments*.

The thing, that, IMO, would be that even if the Vietnamese would have been willing to face the foreseeable internal opposition/enmity of the Buddhist purposely adopted a more tolerant policy towards the Christians minority and would have the means and political will to enforce it.
So, I tend to think that it still wouldn't have granted that, challenging the said official policy, wouldn't have happened incidents/attempts against either the missioners, the local Christians or their priests.

 

[trainvoi]

What could Vietnam have sold for export year after year to build a surplus for an investment fund, partly to be spent on foreign education, advice, and foreign technology, while using debt in a responsible and limited way?

The Japanese I think sold emergency shipping supplies (coal), probably overpriced, some silver and copper, and later on labor on which they got some remittances. I don't know what the Vietnamese had, but I suppose on the average year they had a rice surplus and they could harvest tropical hardwoods and medicines. Over time they could expand fruit growing operations and other cash crops. I'm not sure what the Siamese exported and how they controlled debt.

Fruits, rice, tropical wood, Chinaware, silk, tea, saltpeter(?), iron? While the Vietnamese economy was relatively underdeveloped compared to the Korean or Japanese economy in 1830s due to centuries of warfare, Vietnam still had some goods that they could export.

The biggest problem is getting Vietnam to accept that Western technologies are needed in the first place - this could happen either a military defeat from an European power, a Commodore Perry-esque incident, local military officials adopting Western ideas when in contact with European books (perhaps they read some books in Singapore?), local merchants adopting Western industrial techniques/military formation.

 

[Pat the Baker]

Fruits, rice, tropical wood, Chinaware, silk, tea, saltpeter(?), iron? While the Vietnamese economy was relatively underdeveloped compared to the Korean or Japanese economy in 1830s due to centuries of warfare, Vietnam still had some goods that they could export.

The biggest problem is getting Vietnam to accept that Western technologies are needed in the first place - this could happen either a military defeat from an European power, a Commodore Perry-esque incident, local military officials adopting Western ideas when in contact with European books (perhaps they read some books in Singapore?), local merchants adopting Western industrial techniques/military formation.

Could they be convinced to adopt Western tech if some other regional power did?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The thing, that, IMO, would be that even if the Vietnamese would have been willing to face the foreseeable internal opposition/enmity of the Buddhist purposely adopted a more tolerant policy towards the Christians minority and would have the means and political will to enforce it.

It's worth not backwards projecting the 1960s on to the early 1800s. The Nguyễn Dynasty's court religion was Confucianism, and they suppressed Buddhism (the RVNs policies were actually holdovers of this which had been upheld by the French). Their persecution of Catholicism was not a popular reaction against a foreign creed, but a centrally organized crackdown on an ideology that rejected ancestor worship (one the dynasty's pillars of legitimacy).

The biggest problem is getting Vietnam to accept that Western technologies are needed in the first place - this could happen either a military defeat from an European power, a Commodore Perry-esque incident, local military officials adopting Western ideas when in contact with European books (perhaps they read some books in Singapore?), local merchants adopting Western industrial techniques/military formation.

That's not too hard. Especially as the Nguyễn only came to power because they were able to purchase French ships and weapons, they have earlier impetus than most asian states did to develop modern arsenals.