AHC/WI The ADQ win in 2007

[CanadianTory]

So there has been a lot of talk about Quebec politics lately, obviously due to a few new TL's on the subject, an infobox series and the fact that the Province is currently in the midst of an election campaign.

So yes, the ADQ is now gone as a political force, absorbed by the CAQ and as of now, still is and probably will remain in third place in the National Assembly.

My question is, could the ADQ surge have kept going? Could they have formed a minority government? If so, would they still remain a political force in the province today? How would that affect the Sovereignty movement and the Parti Quebecois?

Come, sit, let's talk about it

 

[RogueBeaver]

Yes, but it would probably be short-lived. The ADQ was always a personality cult more than anything (basically the UN's nationalist wing under another name IMO) and Dumont didn't have many credible people on his team. Plus once voters got a good look at their socioeconomic policies - very serious trouble. That's what happened in 2002-3, which was also a close 3-way race for a while.

 

[CanadianTory]

Yes, but it would probably be short-lived. The ADQ was always a personality cult more than anything (basically the UN's nationalist wing under another name IMO) and Dumont didn't have many credible people on his team. Plus once voters got a good look at their socioeconomic policies - very serious trouble. That's what happened in 2002-3, which was also a close 3-way race for a while.

So, much like like the Federal NDP they were undermined by the rookie members. So, how long would they last? How would that affect the Liberals and the PQ? Would Charest resign?

 

[RogueBeaver]

So, much like like the Federal NDP they were undermined by the rookie members. So, how long would they last? How would that affect the Liberals and the PQ? Would Charest resign?

Charest stays as leader and beats Dumont the following year. Hell, probably toppled on the '08 budget. Boisclair resigns since he led the PQ to an historic defeat. Marois is acclaimed PQ leader as per OTL. PQ becomes even more determined to secure their right flank on identity than OTL (Marois said upon becoming leader that she would never be outflanked on ID). '08 election looks fairly similar to OTL, depending on the federal coalition crisis. Most believe PQ overperformance was due to anti-Harper backlash over his coalition comments.

 

[CanadianTory]

Charest stays as leader and beats Dumont the following year. Hell, probably toppled on the '08 budget. Boisclair resigns since he led the PQ to an historic defeat. Marois is acclaimed PQ leader as per OTL. PQ becomes even more determined to secure their right flank on identity than OTL (Marois said upon becoming leader that she would never be outflanked on ID). '08 election looks fairly similar to OTL, depending on the federal coalition crisis. Most believe PQ overperformance was due to anti-Harper backlash over his coalition comments.

So the ADQ in power would just be a minor change, and everything else would basically go the same as OTL?

 

[RogueBeaver]

So the ADQ in power would just be a minor change, and everything else would basically go the same as OTL?

I don't see a PQ win at that point. Quite possibly a Liberal minority from ADQ incumbency and another PQ overperformance, which would be quite difficult for Charest once his chickens start roosting. Apart from the PQ revolt Charest was behind for most of that OTL term. If there's a Liberal minority, particularly after late 2009, PQ wins the following election IMO.

 

[CanadianTory]

I don't see a PQ win at that point. Quite possibly a Liberal minority from ADQ incumbency and another PQ overperformance, which would be quite difficult for Charest once his chickens start roosting. Apart from the PQ revolt Charest was behind for most of that OTL term. If there's a Liberal minority, particularly after late 2009, PQ wins the following election IMO.

So the ADQ still collapses or does its time in power grant it legitimacy as a possible alternative?