Took you long enough to make this thread
The hard part in my mind is getting Tory in to power in 2007. I just don't see McGuinty's first term government going down in defeat. Maybe a minority, but that's it in my opinion. Maybe if McGuinty came to office earlier (either in 1999 or between then and 2003 if Harris won a minority) then I suppose it could work, but otherwise I don't see it happening.
Anyway, onto the butterflies!
For starters, I suspect this wouldn't change much on the federal level. I don't imagine Tory becoming hugely unpopular, so a PC government probably wouldn't hurt the Conservatives at the federal level. In 2008, I suppose if he's popular this could lead to several more seats in Ontario for the Tories, but in my opinion not enough for a majority government.
In 2011, I don't imagine things changing except, again, for a handful of seats to potentially change hands, but given how the Conservatives already did well in areas where Tory would likely increase their support (the GTA) I suspect their wouldn't be much of a change. The Orange Wave and the Liberal collapse both occurred without any relation to provincial politics (at least in Ontario).
Provincially, things get more interesting. Given how rare it is for first-term governments to be defeated, and given that the federal Conservatives would likely have just been re-elected to a majority government, I imagine Tory would win another majority in 2011. In his second term he'd probably face the same problems with the teachers strikes that McGuinty faced, and
possibly (although admittedly unlikely) with the gas plants. The former will hurt Tory more than McGuinty, I'd think, because it would reinforce an expected Liberal narrative that the PCs can't trusted on education matters, especially since McGuinty in this timeline will still be known as the education Premier.
Going into 2015 (i.e. now, really) Tory would probably be in a close race (as I don't see him resigning), likely mirroring that on the national level. Really a flip of the coin as to who would win, in my opinion.
Anyway, the Liberals would be picking a new leader after McGuinty resigns. The frontrunners would probably be Dwight Duncan, Sandra Pupatello, Michael Bryant, and George Smitherman. Duncan's kind of a bore, Smitherman is a bit too much of an attack dog, and I'm skeptical as to the level of support Bryant would guess, so I'm guessing Pupatello would get it.
