AHC: USA loses war to Japan (1868 start point)

Is this achievable for Japan?

  • Achievable

  • Effectively Impossible


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Challenge: with a POD of 1868, the Meiji Restoration, Japan and the USA fight a war where Japan wins a clear-cut victory and America acknowledges defeat.

3 conditions:
- The war starts during or before 1941.
- If Japan wins with allies, Japan must contribute half or more of the war effort.
- no direct changes to the US, but changes in Japan causing butterfly effects in US are OK
 
How big does the “war” have to be? Perhaps a small American raid, punitive expedition, or intervention on Meiji Japanese territory that goes awry? I would think the further into the TL, and the larger the conflict, the worse the odds for Japan.
 
a naval war over Hawaii or the Philippines, maybe?
I think there's a thread about those somewhere
 
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