AHC: Transvaal OR Orange but not both

[Iserlohn]

IOTL two prominent Boer states were established in modern South Africa, the South African Republic (sometimes referred to as Transvaal, primarily by British sources) and the Orange Free State, established in 1852 and 1854 respectively. Now with a POD after 1840, how can one prevent one of these Boer republics to be permanently established and recognized? Which of the two states is more likely to emerge and survive? Please note that whichever republic survives, it cannot expand beyond the other side of the Vaal river.

Thoughts?

 

[Opunium]

There were more than two IOTL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boer_Republics Just have one Boer state annex all other, thus creating a unified Boer country.

 

[Iserlohn]

There were more than two IOTL. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boer_Republics Just have one Boer state annex all other, thus creating a unified Boer country.

But they were all tiny and mostly short-lived (and I've explicitly mentioned "prominent Boer republics". And again: I'd want the Vaal river to be the border.

 

[Germania09]

Well Tansvaal was pretty much there. Just a shitty luck of the draw that the Brits wanted that mountain of resources under their soil.