Your challenge is to have the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979 to somehow spiral into the Third World War, with a POD after 1975 when the Khmer Rouge took over Cambodia of which served as the catalyst for the Vietnamese invasion which led the after mentioned war.
AHC: Sino-Vietnamese War leads to WWIII
- Thread starter KuboCaskett
- Start date
This is not likely, to tell the truth. WW3 would be much more likely caused by the events of the Iranian Revolution, and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan.
Really? If things had gone worst in Iran, such as the hostage getting killed, the US would have invaded, and the USSR would have not let it stand.
The Soviets, fearing their credibility with satellites and client states is being challenged, back the Vietnamese militarily. If it escalates and goes nuclear. After that, all bets are off as any large scale launch against the Chinese by the Soviets might be accompanied by a launch against the US if they fear the US will take advantage of Soviet weakness and launch against them after a Chinese strike.
The biggest issue is Brezhnev's temperament is too conservative. I think you need someone more radical and willing to take a risk in the situation - go big or go home mentality. So I think your POD has to be a different Soviet leader. No idea who among the Soviet elite in the 1970s could have been elevated to GenSec and had that personality. Brezhnev got rid of a lot of them in the late 60s and early 70s and frankly, most of the Soviet leadership by then just wanted to live out their days as they were all pretty old by then. But as WWIII scenarios go, its not the worst one ever proposed.
The biggest issue is Brezhnev's temperament is too conservative. I think you need someone more radical and willing to take a risk in the situation - go big or go home mentality. So I think your POD has to be a different Soviet leader. No idea who among the Soviet elite in the 1970s could have been elevated to GenSec and had that personality. Brezhnev got rid of a lot of them in the late 60s and early 70s and frankly, most of the Soviet leadership by then just wanted to live out their days as they were all pretty old by then. But as WWIII scenarios go, its not the worst one ever proposed.
Me neither, but the challenge is to keep the war mostly conventional (not counting the Sino-Soviet front) of which always have to be nuclear very quickly for some reason and it's not like both sides can use restraint on that part. And come to think of it, there was a TL based on the Twilight game thing which had this premise to make it more realistic but sadly it seemed to have stopped.
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Hostages are one thing. Invading Iran, a nation right under them, and OTL fourth largest of oil, yes, they would very much.
It is much more likely that the US would bomb the forces supporting the Mullahs than invade the country. In 1979 there was still a good chance to topple the Mullahs as no one in the region wanted them in power. Thus if the Iranian Imperial Military had decided to crush the revolution it would have received US support. In 1979 the Soviet seriously considered invading Iran to prevent the chaos from spilling into the Soviet Union.
The United States HATED Iran in 1979 due to the hostage crisis. If the hostages are killed, the US would invaded full force. The USSR would not let that stand at all, things get out of hand, and then you have WW3.
No President Jimmy Carter would not have ordered an invasion of Iran. The time to have acted was when this mess first took place. The Invasion of the US Embassy was an act of war. If it had happen to the Soviet Embassy then they would have invaded. The American People hated the Iranian Mullahs but after the failure of the Hostage rescue nothing was done. Would President Carter have ordered an invasion I tend to doubt it. Despite being a former US Naval officer he was reluctant to use force. The most that might be hoped for was a bombing campaign.
But if he did? If all the hostages are killed, and his hand is forced, what do you think what happen if they a full on invasion?
With a Soviet/Vietnam -China war the US is on a high state of alert. Because of the large numbers of Chinese troops they face in the far east the Soviets are unable to stop a Chinese push into Siberia. With Vladivostock under threat the commander in theater asks for and is given permission to use tactical nuclear weapons on the advancing Chinese forces. China responds by launching a strategic strike aimed at the Soviet command and control centers. The Soviets then use a portion of their nuclear missile forces against the Chinese. This launch is spotted by the US and is at first believed to be a strike against them. The President then believing America is about to be massively damaged authorises a full scale attack on the Soviet Union. The Soviets see this and correctly assume the missiles are aimed at them and launch a full retaliatory strike against the US and NATO. As the first soviet missile leaves its silo President Carter is informed that the initial strike warning was in error and the attack was aimed at the Chinese.
The only possibly is the chief ideologist, He made Brezhnev look like Carter
Suslov? He preferred to operate more behind the scenes. He wasnt going for the top spot. Maybe Shelepin or Podgorny fall in line behind Brezhnev and than take over after Brezhnev has his stroke in 74.
Although unlikely, you could actually get a joint invasion not unlike 1941. USSR gets the north while the US gets the south. Tehran turns into Berlin.
With all this talk about the Soviets invading Iran in the 80's, I can't seem to find a good POD for them to get them to do so.