AHC: Four-Way Cold War

[Kibbutznik]

During the Cold War, although the primary conflict was between Moscow and Washington, there were several nations which attempted to stand out on their own. The PRC is the most notable example of this, and French attempts to galvanize an Europe independent of American hegemony also deserves a mention.

Your challenge thus is to create a Cold War scenario wherein the United States, the Soviet Union, a European power (or a somewhat-unified Europe, or multiple European powers), and China (Nationalist, Communist, maybe even two Chinas) all vie for power and influence, although not on equal footing.

 

[SiddFinch1]

Not sure if it is what you are looking for but...

during WW II...Nazi Germany doesn't attack USSR and Stalin and Hitler keep their pact....Nazis conqueror Europe...Japan doesn't attack at pearl harbor but stays away from us interests...isolationist US president stays out of wars...20_30 years later you have 4 main powers in an uneasy balance

 

[Matti]

Nazi Germany attacks Poland, with Britain and France responding with war declarations against Germany. Everything continues as planned until Battle of France where the instead Pétain forming a government and asking Germany for armistice terms, the proposed Franco-British Union occurs (not sure what change from OTL would be required for this, maybe greater acceptance for the union by the majority of the French leaders, etc.)

WW2 continues mostly the same with Germany attacking the USSR in June 1941 except for minor changes from OTL as a result of the union. Japan attacks Pearl Harbour in December 1941 resulting in the USA joining the allies. WW2 then continues as OTL, again with minor differences from OTL as a result of the union leading to victory against Germany, Italy and Japan.

The Franco-British Union doesn't break after WW2 due to both Britain and France realising that to maintain a superpower equivalent with the US & USSR, the union would need to continue and strengthen. The union strengthens allowing for stronger post war recovery both economically and militarily, which provides you the European Power. The US remains largely unchanged from OTL.

As a result of the union, the USSR feels threatened due to lack of allies compared to potential combined strength of the US and Union if war breaks out between the Wallies and the USSR. As a result, the USSR provides greater assistance to Communist China in hopes of establishing a friendly communist power which can help 'level the playing field'.

The USSR assistance could lead to Communist China becoming the dominant faction in China and establishing Communist China, or the increased USSR assistance results in the US providing Nationalist China with more assistance (that assistance resulting in less assistance to Europe due to the union maybe?), which results in a split China between the Communists and Nationalists, each side being supported by the USSR and USA respectively, which gives the China part of the request.

 

[Zhou Yu]

Hmm... Four major nations vieing for power, too costly for any direct, hot, war...

Perhaps if WWII were to break out later than OTL in Asia? The later-than-OTL in Asia is needed to make China a superpower, otherwise they'll get the shit kicked out of them by Japan. When Japan invaded, it was now-or-never. China managed to avoid losing in OTL, despite being embroiled in civil war. If China was more united and developed, things would change drastically. As for Europe, I would assume that things should continue as OTL, until Britain. If Hitler can somehow get Britain to back down, or refrain from losing significant amounts of resources fighting them, then they're set. Also, no Barbarossa would be good, for both the Soviets and the Nazis. The USA would've ended up incredibly powerful, either way.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . The PRC is the most notable example of this, . . .

Maybe China could do what it's done OTL, only a lot sooner?

I think China in the last (?) ten years really has done a lot of economic development deals in Africa. If this is done sooner, maybe this four-fold cold war has the virtuous component of competing for economic development in previous third world countries. And you can't just put up a smoke screen, you kind of have to do it for real. That's the virtuous component.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Hmmm...let's see here.

Step one is to avert the Nazis. I'm picturing a right-wing group that's less concerned with expansion and more concerned about stabilizing Germany. Italy still goes fascist, but they don't dare attack anyone the British or French give a damn about, so there's no war, just Italian dominance of North Africa.

Japan ravages east Asia over objections from the West, and eventually they decide to attack Pearl Harbor. America throws itself into war against the Japanese, but they're faced with the possibility of an invasion come 1944. They instead fire-bomb every city they can, turning Japan into a smoldering pile of rubble before the Emperor finally surrenders. No atomic bomb is dropped, but Japan is rebuilt entirely in America's image while the Soviets interfere in China.

China ends up a draw, with a North China and South China; the Soviets influence the North while the Americans get the South and Taiwan. Same with Korea - North and South. Japan is all but an American territory.

So right off, South China and North China try to industrialize, and naturally, there is a LOT of mistrust. Both sides build walls, minefields, fences, blockades, etc. and even terraform the land dividing the two Chinas. Mao in the North urges his people to have lots of babies to outbreed the South.

At first, South China gravitates toward the USA and North China to the USSR. However, Khrushchev and Mao begin to distrust one another, and the Russia-North China border becomes militarized with Mongolia becoming something of a strategic issue for both. So the two sides begin to turn cold, but neither wants a true war.

Meanwhile, the USA's relationship with Japan becomes a problem for South China, as does their nuclear testing. When South China develops nukes, Japan, who is disarmed, feels threatened, and relations between South China and the USA become cold.

 

[Citycat]

Here's my recipe for a four way Cold War, post 1945:

1. The USA follows the same path as OTL, emerging as a superpower after WWII.

2. The USSR follows the same path as OTL, emerging as a superpower after WWI.

3. PRC follows a similar path to OTL, except Mao is either killed or has less power to wreck havoc on his own country in the pursuit of his own ego and power. By avoiding the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution in the 1950s and 1960s, the PRC is stronger than OTL. It clashes with the USSR and the USA, but gravitates towards the US, viewing the Soviets as a bigger threat.

4. Britain falls out with the US after the Suez Canal Crisis in 1956, and switches to supporting the French with European integration. A Franco-British led EEC emerges, with significantly increased European military integration. This new EU superpower emerges as a heavyweight on the world stage. It clashes with the USSR in Europe, who feel its Eastern European empire is threatened with European integration. It also has disputes with the US over decolonisation.

Of the four superpowers, I'd say the USSR is the most screwed, with a superpower rivalry with the US, and a hostile PRC and EU on each side of its borders. The other three powers will have the odd dispute, but rarely will step on each others toes after the 1960s, while the USSR is encircled and will try in vain to build better relations with one of the other superpowers to achieve a balance of power.

 

[Alexander the Average]

Here are some ideas:

During the Chinese Civil War the Communists accept the defection of the 19th Route Army. With a much stronger base things snowball with the Communists, the left-wing of the KMT, and the left-leaning warlords forming an alliance against the right-wing of the KMT. THis results in a bloodier Chinese Civil War. The US throws their support behind the Rightists, although that support is limited due to the prevailing isolationism within US politics at the time. When Japan invades China they form an alliance with the Rightists (instead of IOTL where they formed an alliance with the marginalised leftists under Wang Jingway), and when Pearl Harbour happens the US drops their support for the rightists, but they have thoroughly burned their bridges with the Chinese government.

The FBU is formed after the German invasion of France. After the war ends, largely as IOTL, the Union persists and a Churchill/de Gaulle coalition is elected that is committed to preserving the position of Britain and France on the world stage, as well as maintaining their empires. Indian independence is shot down. Mass uprisings soon occur in India and Indochina, with the Chinese and Soviets pouring fuel on the fire, which results in a violent crackdown.

In the US Roosevelt is able to keep Henry Wallace on as VP in 1944, resulting in him coming to power in 1945. His attempts to cooperate with the Soviets, and his opposition to the violent crackdown by the colonial powers, which leads to him cutting off Marshal Aid, alienates the US from the European Empires, who rally around the FBU. Concerns over the rise of Communism result in him losing the 1952 Election to Harry Stassen, ending cooperation with the Soviet Union. Wallace's more cooperative stance with the Soviets also results in the US helping them to develop a nuclear deterrent, along with the Europeans.

In China, the leftist KMT turns on their Communist partners and violently purges them, although not before regaining Manchuria thanks to the then allied Soviets. This angers the Soviets who proceed to move troops into Xinjiang under the pretext of defending the Republic of East Turkestan, which is subsequently turned into a satellite, whilst arms and support are given to the Tibetans to "enact their right to national self-determination". In North Korea pro-Chinese forces are able to usurp control.

In Japan a four-way occupation is set up, with the Americans, Soviets, Chinese, and Franco-British all receiving occupation zones. As relations between the powers deteriorates, Japan ends up partitioned into four states: the pro-Soviet Peoples Republic of Japan in Hokkaido and Northern Honshu (with the Soviets giving them the Kuril Islands and Southern Sakhalin to bolster their nationalist legitimacy), the pro-Chinese Japanese Peoples Republic in Kyushu and the Ryukyu Islands, the pro-Franco-British Kingdom of Japan in Shikoku and Southern Honshu, and the pro-American Japanese Republic in Central Honshu.

In Germany the American occupation zone is merged with the OTL allied occupation zones in Austria, forming the South German Republic. The French annex the Saarland, and establish a Rheinland Protectorate. The FBU reorganise the OTL British occupation zone into the Kingdom of Greater Hanover. The Dutch are allowed to implement plan A of the Bakker-Schut Plan. Berlin ends up divided three ways. The Soviet zone becomes the DDR as IOTL, and the Soviets also establish the Austrian Free State in their Austrian occupation zone.

In South Africa the National Party wins and begins implementing apartheid. Seeing the growing rift between the US and the European Powers, the Nationalist government breaks their ties to the FBU and forges a closer relationship with the US, which further strains said relations.

The Korean War breaks out when the pro-Chinese North Koreans invade the pro-American South Koreans. The Soviets condemn Chinese aggression, but stay out of it, whilst the Franco-British, too busy dealing with their anti-colonial uprisings, leave the Americans to fight their own battles.

In Greece the Communists and Monarchists fight to a stand-still, with the Americans agreeing to arbitrate peace talks. This results in Greece being divided between a pro-Soviet republic in the north, and a pro-FBU kingdom in the south, with the Soviets and FBU feeling that the Americans were unfairly biased towards the other side.

In Italy, because the right was divided between pro-FBU and pro-American factions the Communist led Popular Front were able to secure a plurality and form a government. This eventually leads to a short civil war, which ends with the country divided between a pro-American Sicilian Republic in the south, a pro-Soviet Workers Republic of Venice and Milan in the north-west, a pro-FBU revived Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont in the North East, and a revived Papal State serving as a neutral buffer between them.

Over the course of the Cold War the European Powers, led by the Franco-British Union desperately try to hold onto their colonies, becoming increasingly authoritarian in the process, China and the Soviets compete to become the leaders of the anti-Colonial movement, with the Chinese generally winning out and the Soviets more willing to work with the Americans. The Americans attempt to establish a Liberal Capitalist anti-colonial movement, but their attempts are undermined by their support of apartheid South Africa and legacy of supporting right-wing military juntas.

 

[Napoleonrules]

1984