AHC: Best Case for the Lebanese Space Programm

[ComradeHuxley]

In the early 1960s, some twenty-something enthusiasts in Lebanon started building remarkably sophisticated rockets. These rockets made it as far up as the International Space Station is today, and even the United States and Soviet Union had to pay attention.

The Lebanese Rocket Society was the brainchild of Manoug Manougian, a 25-year-old math and physics lecturer who in 1960 was teaching at Beirut's Haigazian College. Deeply fascinated with rockets, he enlisted some students who shared his love and together they started building the things. They weren't just playing around with models - using a student's family farm, the newly formed society set up shop and started experimenting with various solid rocket fuels.

The first successful launch came in April 1961. By this point, the Lebanese military was a part of the proceedings, and observers from the "official" competitors in the Space Race, the US and the Soviet Union, were on hand to watch. This initial success reached a maximum altitude of about one kilometer.

The Society then pulled off a bunch of increasingly impressive launches, ultimately reaching roughly 145 kilometers up into the thermosphere, the part of the upper atmosphere where the International Space Station orbits today. That altitude measures up quite respectably to the 187 kilometers reached by Alan Shepherd in Freedom 7, the United States's first manned foray into space. Of course, Lebanon never reached the point of putting astronauts inside its rockets, but that doesn't detract much from the incredible engineering acumen demonstrated by the Lebanese Rocket Society.

Unfortunately, the political climate of the time was not conducive to their rocketry experiments. Lebanon was not disconnected from the various political strifes that affected the reason, and French President Charles De Gaulle reportedly counselled Lebanon President Fouad Chehab to abandon their research into rocketry and missiles, lest it attract unwanted attention from those who feared the military applications of the work. The Rocket Society disbanded in 1966, and the entire project languished forgotten in obscurity.

Lebanon was the forgotten player in the sixties space race
Alasdair Wilkins

What would have been the non ASB best case for their programm? What if they, metaphorically speaking, had consistently thrown sixes?

 

[Workable Goblin]

The best case is probably launching a small payload into orbit, along the lines of Japan's Osumi satellite. That would require government funding and technical support, but given how shoestring Japan's program was, I certainly wouldn't consider an orbital launch impossible for Lebanon, perhaps in the early to mid 1970s. I can't see them doing much more than that, though, for the noted political reasons, the unmentioned reason that the country fell into civil war relatively soon afterwards, and because it would almost certainly be cheaper for them to launch European or American-built satellites on European or American rockets, and those satellites would certainly be of more actual value than anything they could plausibly launch themselves.

That's really unlikely, though. Getting to orbit is a pretty big jump from getting to a high altitude, even if you're sticking strictly to small payloads and simple rockets.

 

[ComradeHuxley]

The best case is probably launching a small payload into orbit, along the lines of Japan's Osumi satellite. That would require government funding and technical support, but given how shoestring Japan's program was, I certainly wouldn't consider an orbital launch impossible for Lebanon, perhaps in the early to mid 1970s.That's really unlikely, though. Getting to orbit is a pretty big ju thmp from getting to a high altitude, even if you're sticking strictly to small payloads and simple rockets.

Thats all I was wondering about. How a possible timeline might look were their little space programm becomes a point of national pride for a more succesfull stable Lebanon. The Japanse example sounds like a good road map. Thanks.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

My first thought is if the program continues to the start of the civil war then Syria might try a 'Operation Paperclip' & secure the engineers and documents for its own program. Alternately the rocketeers end up in Jordan which tries to continue it.

 

[fasquardon]

I wonder if Lebanon avoided civil war (or maybe had a short decisive civil war), it could end up in alliance with Israel and Iran and the 3 could have a joint civil space program?

Certainly Israel and Iran have an interest in space (and IRBMs).

fasquardon

 

[Napoleonrules]

Israel destroys any "bases" this so-called space program works out of, and assassinates the people behind it. Any Arab space program is a threat, not only in having them in space, but also because improvements in rockets means improvements in hitting Israel. The program will rightly not be seen as peaceful and any dissemination to other nations, especially Iran, will be treated as the equivelent of nuclear proliferation as it would give them greater reach on missiles.

 

[Napoleonrules]

In other words- the French fears come true. There's a reason the French told them to quit it.

 

[Napoleonrules]

Oh, and I for the record, the Cedar IV went to 140 km, the ISS is at 400 km. Not even close. Next time use a reliable source, that source is not very accurate on the events.

 

[edgeworthy]

Maybe they could join up with the British Black Arrow project.
Which is an even more tragic story. As of 2017, the United Kingdom is the only country to have successfully developed and then abandoned a satellite launch capability.
A joint development would be harder for the Treasury to cancel?

 

[fasquardon]

Israel destroys any "bases" this so-called space program works out of, and assassinates the people behind it. Any Arab space program is a threat, not only in having them in space, but also because improvements in rockets means improvements in hitting Israel. The program will rightly not be seen as peaceful and any dissemination to other nations, especially Iran, will be treated as the equivelent of nuclear proliferation as it would give them greater reach on missiles.

There's a reason why I can only see Lebanese rockets going anywhere is if Israel and Lebanon are allies.

fasquardon

 

[riggerrob]

WI a major television company started launching communications satellites from Lebanon because they wanted to remain neutral during the Cold War?

Even DeGaulle was trying to keep the French Armed Forces at arm's length from NATO.
P.S. Millions believed that DeGaulle was a few baguettes short of a full load = too arrogant for his own good.

A similar WI has Dr. Gerald Bull continuing his High Altitude Research Program from Southern Quebec. The biggest difference was that Bull used double-length naval guns instead.

 

[Napoleonrules]

WI a major television company started launching communications satellites from Lebanon because they wanted to remain neutral during the Cold War?

Even DeGaulle was trying to keep the French Armed Forces at arm's length from NATO.
P.S. Millions believed that DeGaulle was a few baguettes short of a full load = too arrogant for his own good.

A similar WI has Dr. Gerald Bull continuing his High Altitude Research Program from Southern Quebec. The biggest difference was that Bull used double-length naval guns instead.

The farther from the equator your launch pad is the more expensive it is, France launching from French Guiana as in OTL would be more cost effective.

 

[fasquardon]

The farther from the equator your launch pad is the more expensive it is, France launching from French Guiana as in OTL would be more cost effective.

Lebanon is close enough to the equator that any extra expense caused by its latitude would be counted fractions of a % of the total cost. The problem for Lebanon is that launching things to the East, North and South risks dropping spent rocket stages on foreign countries.

fasquardon

 

[Michel Van]

Lebanon is close enough to the equator that any extra expense caused by its latitude would be counted fractions of a % of the total cost. The problem for Lebanon is that launching things to the East, North and South risks dropping spent rocket stages on foreign countries.

fasquardon

Israel face similar problems so they launch over Mediterranean Sea in west direction and make sure not a piece of hardware falls on arabic soil.
the Libanese could do same, if Israel not bomb there launch pads into stone age for safety policy...