AHC - Allies invade Spain during WW2

[psteinx]

With a PoD after January, 1940, the Allies (UK + USA, etc) launch a major invasion against Spain sometime before the end of WW2.

Could be from any direction (Amphibious Atlantic or Med, or out of Gibraltar, or out of France), either as a prelude to invading/liberating France, or a follow-up.

Franco can be a full-fledged Axis member, or maybe just a stronger sympathizer.

So, what's the lead-up to this, and from what direction do the Allies invade, etc.?

Bonus challenge: How does the invasion go? Italy is seen as an underperformer in combat in WW2. I presume Spain would have been worse, but who knows?

 

[Lalli]

Probably only way to get Allies to invade Spain that Franco gets some strike of stupidity and declares war to France and invaes Gibraltar. So Allies would firstly capture Gibraltar back (necessary to secure route to Mediterranean) and then begin push themselves through Andalucia. Then probably simultaneously with Operation Husky Allies invade Balearic and land to Catalonia assuming that this is not too much for logisics of Allies. If Spain has not fallen yet by 1944 then there might be invasion from north and perhaps later over Pyrenees after France is liberated.

 

[Monk78]

Probably only way to get Allies to invade Spain that Franco gets some strike of stupidity and declares war to France and invaes Gibraltar. So Allies would firstly capture Gibraltar back (necessary to secure route to Mediterranean) and then begin push themselves through Andalucia. Then probably simultaneously with Operation Husky Allies invade Balearic and land to Catalonia assuming that this is not too much for logisics of Allies. If Spain has not fallen yet by 1944 then there might be invasion from north and perhaps later over Pyrenees after France is liberated.

Will xenophobia of Spanish left be awakened by this ? Rather than treating Allies as liberators will they turn against them ?

 

[Garrison]

Probably only way to get Allies to invade Spain that Franco gets some strike of stupidity and declares war to France and invaes Gibraltar. So Allies would firstly capture Gibraltar back (necessary to secure route to Mediterranean) and then begin push themselves through Andalucia. Then probably simultaneously with Operation Husky Allies invade Balearic and land to Catalonia assuming that this is not too much for logisics of Allies. If Spain has not fallen yet by 1944 then there might be invasion from north and perhaps later over Pyrenees after France is liberated.

And as I'm sure you know Franco was never going to join the Axis because that would have destabilized Spain and cut it off from vital food imports that the Germans can't replace.

 

[brunohusker]

Only happens if Franco is an idiot and decides to join the war on the side of the Axis. For all his major issues (and as a practicing Catholic its a very complicated legacy and sucks as he still has fanboys in the church, even if they are just LARPing tradcaths in their mom's basement or still in high school and just read about him) it won't happen. Now if the Soviets somehow get momentum earlier, especially before the US gets involved, maybe they join when the Soviets threaten the German border. Then maybe it becomes more about fighting communism. I'm sure Spain and Franco himself had their anti-semites but they also were a place where POW's and camp refugees escaped IIRC. Maybe at the point the Soviets are at the gates Hitler won't care if Franco doesn't want to fully go along with the Holocaust, or Franco might go along with it on paper but just puts up "No Jew" signs in public places or something like that.

For all my knowledge of World War Two i'm not a detailed expert on battles on any front let alone the Eastern Front, but if there is some early battle where the Soviets push them back earlier, might Hitler encourage the Japanese not to bomb Pearl Harbor (if he knew anything about it at all) so as not to be defeated, or maybe even have a neutral US arbitrate peace that might keep Nazi Germany alive and him in power? I I know its probably impossible as the Soviets struggled early due to a purged military leadership, or at least that's the narrative I've heard, but with all those men, might the Soviets push them back earlier in 1941? I know that's not a lot of time but maybe if the Soviets somehow can push them back or it fails, then that might be the key to get Spain on board.

There aren't really any other scenarios I can think of. There's not much of a reason for Spain to take back Gibraltar and anger the British, and unless the US or Britain is convinced Spain is violating their own neutrality, then there's no reason for an invasion. Heck if anything I'm more interested in a timeline where due to the Anschluss, Germany and Italy go to war and eventually Spain sides with the Italians and the British and French join them. It might especially be terrifyingly funny in Britain as maybe they try to rehabilitate Oswald Mosley or send him to fight but secretly hope he's a casualty. That world might even see much more of a difference between fascism and Nazism as the Spanish/French/Italian versions are more anti-communist and pro Catholic church (on some level) and while Nazism is seen as either Pagan or Protestant and is held up as more racist while other fascists claim they are not.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Of course it is possible. It only requires the Allies to adopt Hitler's mentality that if a country does not immediately side with the Allies, it is tantamount to siding with the Axis and therefore deserves to be invaded. /sarcasm.

More seriously, invading Spain would be a logistical nightmare that would bog down the Allies even if we assume that Portugal decides to violate its own neutrality (why would they?) and give way to the Allied armies in their invasion of Spain.

The landscape of Spain in 1930 includes such charming elements as mountains, clouds filled with mountains, mountains, roads that in many cases are little more than lines on a map, mountains, railways more typical of the 19th century and that use a different gauge of track (so you can't even bring in Anglo-American rolling stock), mountains, lost valleys, mountains, guerrillas who know the terrain and will remind the Allies why Napoleon was kicked out of the country... oh, have I already mentioned the mountains?

And this is only before reaching the Pyrenees, where by then the Wehrmacht will have prepared an extension of the Atlantic Wall while the Allies stupidly wasted resources, men and material trying to invade Spain.

This is forgetting that, of course, unlike what happens with France, the Allies who become so dumb to try to invade Spain will not consider the population as friendly to be won over, but as hostile to those who should be "kept in check" to prevent them from hindering the march towards Germany.

So it is very likely that no effort was made to win over the population, as this predates the "hearts and minds" campaigns, and it is most likely that the troops were told that all Spaniards are Franco bootlickers who worship Hitler and hate the Allies.

Naturally, what this kind of treatment will do is very quickly eliminate any possible relief that the population might feel upon seeing the allied forces arrive...

 

[I want to learn]

Spain sends a token expeditionary force to the Eastern Front much as historical, but as a POD the USSR formally declares war. Spain remains technically neutral to Britain and the USA for most of the war, but it becomes a bone of contention and the Soviets only agree to go to war with Japan on the condition Spain is next. VE and VJ come and go roughly as historic but late 1945 sees a UN coalition invading Spain as an appendix to what we’d recognize as WW2.

Depending on timing, it would be a great opportunity for historic weapon systems which only slightly missed the war to see action, such as HMS Vanguard bombarding the Spanish navy in an environment of total air supremacy, USS Wisconsin and Missouri during Desert Storm style.

 

[TxAggie]

Invading Spain after 1940 is just creating problems where there aren't any.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Spain sends a token expeditionary force to the Eastern Front much as historical, but as a POD the USSR formally declares war. Spain remains technically neutral to Britain and the USA for most of the war, but it becomes a bone of contention and the Soviets only agree to go to war with Japan on the condition Spain is next. VE and VJ come and go roughly as historic but late 1945 sees a UN coalition invading Spain as an appendix to what we’d recognize as WW2.

Depending on timing, it would be a great opportunity for historic weapon systems which only slightly missed the war to see action, such as HMS Vanguard bombarding the Spanish navy in an environment of total air supremacy, USS Wisconsin and Missouri during Desert Storm style.

Considering that by then it was already evident that the USSR was going to be the next major rival, I see no reason why Spain would be invaded just because Stalin asked for it, or would somehow be allowed to deploy troops to Spain AGAIN.

It would be a war of choice, where the Allies would have to do all the dirty work and it would be like "yeah, no, we've done the numbers and this is stupid. We're not going to do this unless them do something stupid like try to to invade Portugal and France at the same time, like in that other TL".

 

[Lawnchair Captain]

I've mentioned this before in other threads but it looks like Spain was very close to join the war in the Axis' side when France was collapsing. To Franco the events that were unfolding seemed to indicate a "divine providence" that wanted Spain to recover its lost empire in America on the African shores, something that was one of Franco's dreams. Always and foremost an "africanista", he considered this continent as Spain's natural expansion zone.

Immediately the state directed press started a furious campaign against the Allies and demonstrations took place. The army in North Africa was put in a state of high alert even though it is clear that it was lacking in supplies and the most it could do would be a push into France controlled territory before it ran out of steam. Local leaders in French controlled Morocco were contacted in order to provide a casus belli.

Now, Franco's dream was short lived, soon became apparent that things would not happen the same way they had during the Spanish Civil War. Germany was not interested in Spain grabbing territories in North Africa because that would mean that the French would keep fighting to defend them, something more than expected considering how bellicose were some of the French generals in North Africa. Likewise, and unsurprisingly, the French were not interested either and they had been moving units and material to North Africa as the collapse in the Metropolis seemed more and more likely. Soon the military situation was no longer favorable to Spain and the pro war campaign vanished from the newspapers.

Franco being clever or astute may be open to discussion. That he was lucky is beyond doubt. This may well be another case of his famous "baraka". Had an incident happened, or had the orders to attack being send (say that France holds on for longer against Germany) and Spain may have happily joined the Axis. On the other hand, this may well have meant that France would have fought on in North Africa since one of the reasons for France to surrender was the preservation of its empire overseas. So once again Franco dodged a bulled, like when he asked for so much in Hendaye that Hitler could not offer him what he wanted (those who think he was a genius will say that he did that on purpose, others following Preston's take will say that it was delusions of grandeur).

I'm writing from memory so I may make some mistakes. The book I read about the subject, "El imperio que nunca existió", by Alfred Bosch provides much information about this issue.

One thing I believe is clear. If the Allies had landed in Spain they had a very easy way for them to win the hearts and minds of the local population, bring food.

 

[Derek Jackson]

WI Franco were removed by a ore pro nazi leader?

 

[Lalli]

WI Franco were removed by a ore pro nazi leader?

Was there anyone such who could had succeeded on post-SCW Spain? Perhaps better way would be kill Franco already during the civil war or Franco's predecessor José Sanjurjo being bit smarter and not overload his plane with fatal consueqences. But I don't know would he had led Spain to WW2 assuming that he can win the civil war.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

WI Franco were removed by a ore pro nazi leader?

Unlikely. Franco made sure that no one challenged his command, and half of the generals were being paid by the British to convince him that Spain was neutral.

So this hypothetical pro-Nazi successor (who? Millán Astray would only be followed by the Legion, and Serrano Suñer was a bureaucrat whom the military would not have respected) also needs to purge half of the high ranks of the army, what will be "wonderful" for its combat capability.

 

[I want to learn]

Considering that by then it was already evident that the USSR was going to be the next major rival, I see no reason why Spain would be invaded just because Stalin asked for it, or would somehow be allowed to deploy troops to Spain AGAIN.

It would be a war of choice, where the Allies would have to do all the dirty work and it would be like "yeah, no, we've done the numbers and this is stupid. We're not going to do this unless them do something stupid like try to to invade Portugal and France at the same time, like in that other TL".

Britain declared war on Finland and engaged in token hostilities with them in the more desperate times of 1941 despite nearly going to war to defend them the previous calendar year. What are the actual costs of taking down Franco in 1945 anyway? Would Franco's government even survive an ultimatum by the Allies to conduct free and fair election under UN auditors or face invasion? I feel like the trickiest part of my proposal is Franco maintaining enough of a grip on power to direct meaningful resistance to the overwhelming level of force the Allies could deliver, rather than being summarily deposed by the closest general who sees the writing on the wall.

 

[M79]

How much alcohol was involved in this ATL decision to invade Spain?

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Britain declared war on Finland and engaged in token hostilities with them in the more desperate times of 1941 despite nearly going to war to defend them the previous calendar year. What are the actual costs of taking down Franco in 1945 anyway? Would Franco's government even survive an ultimatum by the Allies to conduct free and fair election under UN auditors or face invasion? I feel like the trickiest part of my proposal is Franco maintaining enough of a grip on power to direct meaningful resistance to the overwhelming level of force the Allies could deliver, rather than being summarily deposed by the closest general who sees the writing on the wall.

Remember that this "well, someone will overthrow Franco and surrender in his place" plan requires that there be someone who can challenge Franco to that extent in the first place. In that case the hypothetical pro-Nazi successor would have had it easier.

And this is assuming that the rest of the troops and commanders simply surrender instead of deciding that the one who has surrendered is a coward who can and should be ignored before returning to the guerrillas...

 

[NedStark]

This is forgetting that, of course, unlike what happens with France, the Allies who become so dumb to try to invade Spain will not consider the population as friendly to be won over, but as hostile to those who should be "kept in check" to prevent them from hindering the march towards Germany.

So it is very likely that no effort was made to win over the population, as this predates the "hearts and minds" campaigns, and it is most likely that the troops were told that all Spaniards are Franco bootlickers who worship Hitler and hate the Allies.

Naturally, what this kind of treatment will do is very quickly eliminate any possible relief that the population might feel upon seeing the allied forces arrive.

Except that the Allies would have absolutely made common cause with the remaining Spanish republicans and resistance if they ever decide to invade.

Remember that this "well, someone will overthrow Franco and surrender in his place" plan requires that there be someone who can challenge Franco to that extent in the first place. In that case the hypothetical pro-Nazi successor would have had it easier.

And this is assuming that the rest of the troops and commanders simply surrender instead of deciding that the one who has surrendered is a coward who can and should be ignored before returning to the guerrillas...

Or, the Right managed to nail a cleaner victory in the Spanish Civil War, bonus with someone more pro-Nazi than Franco as leader. Then they decide to try their lucks (and seal their fate).

 

[CaptainCalvert]

The problem with invading Spain is that you can't get anywhere. Well, Andorra, and very mountainous France. So if you want to get to France, it makes more sense to go directly to somewhere useful like French North Africa, which gives access to France and Italy, and weakens both Vichy and Italy. Spain doesn't weaken the axis or free up additional French troops.

OTL, Franco was more or less bribed by the allies to stay neutral in return for food and some other supplies. That's far better all round as Spain has a disincentive to misbehave, and it's much cheaper and easier to ship food than to ship people, food, equipment, military supplies etc. and then fight someone who is currently neutral and unlikely to join your enemies.

 

[NedStark]

The problem with invading Spain is that you can't get anywhere. Well, Andorra, and very mountainous France. So if you want to get to France, it makes more sense to go directly to somewhere useful like French North Africa, which gives access to France and Italy, and weakens both Vichy and Italy. Spain doesn't weaken the axis or free up additional French troops.

OTL, Franco was more or less bribed by the allies to stay neutral in return for food and some other supplies. That's far better all round as Spain has a disincentive to misbehave, and it's much cheaper and easier to ship food than to ship people, food, equipment, military supplies etc. and then fight someone who is currently neutral and unlikely to join your enemies.

Well, the fundamental reason why Franco stayed neutral was the fact that Spain was thoroughly wrecked by the SCW - had the Nats won a cleaner victory, especially with a different leader, they might have tried their luck. And there you go, the Allies would not leave such a sizable active Axis member alone, period.

And this is assuming that the rest of the troops and commanders simply surrender instead of deciding that the one who has surrendered is a coward who can and should be ignored before returning to the guerrillas...

Unfortunately, there would be no shortage of collaborators for the Allies to employ.

 

[Mitridates the Great]

Why would the Spanish Left, many of whom fought as members of the Allied militaries during OTL WW2, turn against the Allies? Especially since the Allies are fighting Franco’s regime, the Spanish Left’s greatest enemy?

I think the operative assumption there is that the Spanish are inherently racist and stupid and of course they would turn against the Allies en masse because they hate democracy and freedom.

This is what I was referring to when I said that the Allied troops will be told that all Spaniards are Franco's bootlickers who worship Hitler.

I think we would get something in between "an American GI raises his flag and people take to the streets to cheer the Allies as their liberators" and "the resistance of the Imperial Japanese Army is mild compared to what the Spanish will organize."