A Sound of Thunder: The Rise of the Soviet Superbooster

[RanulfC]

Why is there so much pushback against the nuclear reactor? Many nations previously flew RTGs powered crafts to orbit and beyond?

Because the Soviet Union has already dropped a radioactive satellite onto someone's head in 1978 and this is a "reactor" rather than an RTG. You can bet the anti-nuclear crowd is going to be screaming that it's a "Three Mile Island" in the sky and going to kill everyone it passes over.

Randy

 

[Garrison]

Yeah sooner or later this is going to end badly for the Soviets, probably when someone decides to do some experimenting with the reactor.

 

[Craig]

To what extent was the anti-nuclear movement another fine product of the KGB? Any objections they would have had to Soviet RORSATS was pro-forma.

 

[Ry01tank]

Why is there so much pushback against the nuclear reactor? Many nations previously flew RTGs powered crafts to orbit and beyond?

Still, there's finally a space station that uses nuclear energy to power itself, not like OTL were for all the funding and research going into them, they all ended stillborn/axed.

Three Mile Island was blown WAY too far out of proportion by the media, as well as the engineers and scientists saying contradictory things (no communication between the different groups), it basically killed US Nuclear power due to the media
Basically the "nerds" (engineers and scientists) didn't know everything and interpret shit differnetly, as a result press confrences and statements were condradictory as hell, not to mention the nerds couldn't explain it simply and spoke technical jargon instead of plain english that the normal Joe could understand. Plus routine operations became national news, the harmless steam was thought to be radioactive, and worse, a guy released the built up radioactive steam without telling the press, a helicopter flying overhead recieved huge radiation spikes and it was thought that this was happening ALL THE TIME and not one specific event

Chernobyl was a huge one after 86, it is credited with partially killing the Soviet Union, do i need to explain how it fucked Nuclear Energy

With orbital nuclear power the issue is disposal of the radioactive parts, the Soviets just left them in orbit, one time a nuclear reactor re-entered and landed in canada's territories. Not to mention the risk of the launcher rocket blowing up. The Atomic Energy Commision would also go ape shit with minor accidents (NERVA), Apollo 13 had to adjust its re-entry location as the 6kg of plutonium was considered a danger, even though it was designed to survive anything and would only hurt somebody if it hit them
Hell, NASA advocated sending an asteroid to Lunar orbit as putting it in earth orbit would be a political shitstorm

The big issue is Education, Cassini was the last major protest for a spacecraft carrying radioactive stuff. nowadays the education level is higher then it was back then, expecially in the US, where most never finished high school until 2008ish, not to mention the fact that there education system is LITERALLY built on Sports

 

[Athelstane]

Because the Soviet Union has already dropped a radioactive satellite onto someone's head in 1978 and this is a "reactor" rather than an RTG. You can bet the anti-nuclear crowd is going to be screaming that it's a "Three Mile Island" in the sky and going to kill everyone it passes over.

Randy

Imagine what the reaction would be if this thing launched after Chernobyl.

 

[Athelstane]

Three Mile Island was blown WAY too far out of proportion by the media, as well as the engineers and scientists saying contradictory things (no communication between the different groups), it basically killed US Nuclear power due to the media

Three Mile Island is nearly forgotten now, which makes it not easy to appreciate how much nervous energy was made out of TMI at the time. (It did not help that The China Syndrome released at almost literally the same time, and made good box office out of it!) Quite unfairly, as you point out; but that was where a big chunk of the zeitgeist was by the late 1970's in parts of the West.

We remember Chernobyl now, even more than we do Fukushima, and at least that is a case that really deserves the nightmare associations.

With orbital nuclear power the issue is disposal of the radioactive parts, the Soviets just left them in orbit, one time a nuclear reactor re-entered and landed in canada's territories.

The worry here is that even if the Soviets DO have some sort of a plan for controlled deorbit when the time comes, the time is probably going to come during or after the collapse stage of the USSR, and the Soviets/Russians simply will not have the ability to do it in a controlled way. And this thing is big enough to make Kosmos 954 look like a day at the playground.

 

[Polish Eagle]

To what extent was the anti-nuclear movement another fine product of the KGB? Any objections they would have had to Soviet RORSATS was pro-forma.

According to the CIA, the USSR's influence on it was rather prominent, though not necessarily originating.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85M00364R001001530019-5.pdf

With that said, the document I cite actually does note that the Soviets were increasingly concerned that the movements were getting away from them and were, despite instructions to the contrary, criticizing the USSR.

 

[Thoresby]

Beautiful

 

[CMDR_HISTINT]

there education system is LITERALLY built on Sports

what?

 

[CMDR_HISTINT]

Hopefully, the USSR or US makes some nuclear rockets for a Mars mission, before the collapse of the USSR, I really want to see this timeline continue until Humanity is spread across the solar system.

Also is the Zubrin drive/nuclear salt water rocket proposed by Zubrin yet? Maybe the Ivans are crazy enough to build on in space and speedrun across the solar system.

 

[RanulfC]

According to the CIA, the USSR's influence on it was rather prominent, though not necessarily originating.

https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP85M00364R001001530019-5.pdf

With that said, the document I cite actually does note that the Soviets were increasingly concerned that the movements were getting away from them and were, despite instructions to the contrary, criticizing the USSR.

Many years ago I read a rather scholarly report that noted that the "main body" (if you will) of the 70s/80s "Anti-Nuclear" movement had been gestated and 'trained' during the 60s/70s "Anti-Vietnam War" movement having realized they could use much the same organization and 'grass-roots' strategy to turn what was initially a movement again nuclear weapons to one encompassing "nuclear" in general. It also mentioned Soviet involvement and noted that it should not have been surprising that the movement would also turn against the Soviets, especially in Western Europe which was (rightly) just as worried about Soviet nuclear weapons as those in NATO hands.

TMI was seen as a "god send" by the Western Anti-Nuclear movement and as Ry01tank noted the western governmental and scientific response did not help but despite the hype over Fukushima, one thing it and TMI showed was the superiority of Western safety design as compared to the USSR. That's allowed some more recent work to get done and nuclear power might actually revive in the near future.

Randy

 

[Polish Eagle]

Hopefully, the USSR or US makes some nuclear rockets for a Mars mission, before the collapse of the USSR, I really want to see this timeline continue until Humanity is spread across the solar system.

Also is the Zubrin drive/nuclear salt water rocket proposed by Zubrin yet? Maybe the Ivans are crazy enough to build on in space and speedrun across the solar system.

Ol' Bobby Z at the time is a nuclear engineer working for Martin Marietta, primarily concerned with nuclear-thermal propulsion, Shuttle-derived heavy-lift vehicles, and trying not to talk about his old association with Lyndon LaRouche. Far from important yet, though things are shaping up to give him a lot of job security (Martin Marietta being, of course, most likely to be a prime contract for the heavy cargo rockets for the lunar return).

 

[RanulfC]

The big issue is Education, Cassini was the last major protest for a spacecraft carrying radioactive stuff. nowadays the education level is higher then it was back then, especially in the US, where most never finished high school until 2008ish, not to mention the fact that there education system is LITERALLY built on Sports

Not so sure it's actually 'education' but the ability to access and have explained something complicated like Nuclear power is today a lot easier than in the past. And there are more "science explainers" who can and do actually connect with the average person quite a bit better than in the past. On the other hand, the 'grift' of misinformation is a lot stronger too as you have people who are constantly trying to scare the public with the "next big disaster".
Of course I tend to smack my head on the table when I read how many people "complain" about the "inhuman and demeaning" treatment of the condemned prisoners the "government" must be killing in droves to change the light bulbs on the light poles at the old Jackass Flats test ground, or how anyone who visits the Trinity site dies of radiation poisoning within a week.

I will point out that the Soviets at least 'tried' to be responsible with their orbiting nuclear satellites. The one that crashed in Canada was a rare failure where they could not separate the RTG before reentry due to multiple malfunctions. (Usually they spun the satellite and lofted the RTG into a 'graveyard orbit' but that satellite's controls failed soon after launch)

Randy

 

[Ry01tank]

Three Mile Island is nearly forgotten now, which makes it not easy to appreciate how much nervous energy was made out of TMI at the time. (It did not help that The China Syndrome released at almost literally the same time, and made good box office out of it!) Quite unfairly, as you point out; but that was where a big chunk of the zeitgeist was by the late 1970's in parts of the West.

That movie released like a WEEK before TMI happened and the head of the company that ran TMI said that the movie was impossible to happen in reality
Not to mention the radiation levels around the plant were told everywhere, even though its just slightly higher then the normal radation level at the time, people fliped the absolute fuck out because nobody knew there was normal radiation everywhere

We remember Chernobyl now, even more than we do Fukushima, and at least that is a case that really deserves the nightmare associations.

The US and scientists TOLD the Japs to not build there and they did
Chernobyl was a product of the corrupt soviet system, the fact it operated without being CERTIFIED is insane, not to mention the whole safety drill leading to an explosion

Fukushima was also lumped in with the tsunami and all the other modern news cycle, which made it less visible of a disaster

The worry here is that even if the Soviets DO have some sort of a plan for controlled deorbit when the time comes, the time is probably going to come during or after the collapse stage of the USSR, and the Soviets/Russians simply will not have the ability to do it in a controlled way. And this thing is big enough to make Kosmos 954 look like a day at the playground.

If it has a life span near to Mir, its likely that when it is retired in the 90s the US might step in and fund a deorbit. I remember reading somewhere that a early idea for the ISS was building it and incorperating Mir, but the age showed by Shuttle-Mir so the idea was changed

what?

In the us alot of high schools have televised football and stuff, its not uncommon to see a school in disrepair but their 30k people statium is kept spick and span, alot of the Sports athletes also had easier times with grades and stuff due to the administration giving them leway (you may fail every course but because your the football captain you will pass them)
I do not mean to bash the US of A or insult anybody from there, its just an observation.

Not so sure it's actually 'education' but the ability to access and have explained something complicated like Nuclear power is today a lot easier than in the past. And there are more "science explainers" who can and do actually connect with the average person quite a bit better than in the past. On the other hand, the 'grift' of misinformation is a lot stronger too as you have people who are constantly trying to scare the public with the "next big disaster".
Of course I tend to smack my head on the table when I read how many people "complain" about the "inhuman and demeaning" treatment of the condemned prisoners the "government" must be killing in droves to change the light bulbs on the light poles at the old Jackass Flats test ground, or how anyone who visits the Trinity site dies of radiation poisoning within a week.

I will point out that the Soviets at least 'tried' to be responsible with their orbiting nuclear satellites. The one that crashed in Canada was a rare failure where they could not separate the RTG before reentry due to multiple malfunctions. (Usually they spun the satellite and lofted the RTG into a 'graveyard orbit' but that satellite's controls failed soon after launch)

Randy

I had a bigger explination but i cut it down
Back in the 70's and 80s a majority of the us population never finshed high school, literacy was also down and as i said above alot of the schools were built from their sports departments. Nowadays as you said there are "explainers" who can essentially dumb it down for the average joe to understand simply, in TMI these explainers were the engineers and scientists who had an EXTREMELY hard time explaining things in simple ways, it was the same with Apollo and space science, simple things are easy to connect (landing on a comet like Rosetta was huge in the public and captured the students at my school who normally couldn't care less)
Basically modern education figures adds added foundations to the explainers topic, while back in the day a person hearing nuclear thought a nuke going off, and with the poor explaining the public imagination was far worse then it was

The Netflix documentary was hilarious as it essentially was 4 episodes of an accident and people flipping the fuck out over minor things

 

[Ry01tank]

USAF considers itself pretty well covered ITTL's early '80s, with Shuttle, Shuttle-C and the soon-to-be-privatised expendable launhers staying around, so isn't so interested in spending their budget on yet another launch vehicle. Of course, Congress has been known on occassion to override technical considerations when it comes to launcher design...

Gotta love the need for jobs in Congressional Districts
in 79 Lee Iaccoca was able to get 1.5 billion in funds for Chrysler by having the entire infrustructure campaign for the money in local districts (dealerships to factories), since Chrysler was in 533 out of the 535 districts they got the money (if they didn't the democrats would essentially be shooting themselves in the 80 election)

How does the Private expendables figure in with the Shuttle, is the shuttle still going to fly USAF mssions and potentially service spy sats, or is it like OTL with a station and science focus

Also big fan of your work!

 

[Ogrebear]

Great update- nice that things are going well for the Soviets there. All that experience of spaces stations and big rockets will help with their Moon station or base I’m sure.

Lovely pictures too!

 

[Athelstane]

That movie released like a WEEK before TMI happened and the head of the company that ran TMI said that the movie was impossible to happen in reality
Not to mention the radiation levels around the plant were told everywhere, even though its just slightly higher then the normal radation level at the time, people fliped the absolute fuck out because nobody knew there was normal radiation everywhere

Yup

Chernobyl was a product of the corrupt soviet system, the fact it operated without being CERTIFIED is insane, not to mention the whole safety drill leading to an explosion

It's as if RBMK reactors were a giant exercise in game theory, to see how many risks you could get away with while still operating a bunch of nuclear reactors. The wonder, as you say, is that they got away with it for as long as they did.

No one who mattered seems to have appreciated that the downside risk wasn't just a bunch of dead people in a particular locale (the Soviets had plenty of experience with that!), but something so disastrous and costly that it could bring the entire regime down in fairly short order. As Gorbachev himself put it, "The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl this month 20 years ago, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union five years later." [1]

If it has a life span near to Mir, its likely that when it is retired in the 90s the US might step in and fund a deorbit. I remember reading somewhere that a early idea for the ISS was building it and incorperating Mir, but the age showed by Shuttle-Mir so the idea was changed

Yeah, I don't know enough to say from the info Nixonshead provides. I don't know how high its orbit is, or what what its exact orbit boosting capabilities are. I could see it sticking around til the late 90's and the U.S. making some urgent effort to provide, or at least pay for, a re-boost effort (there would be plenty of motivation to do so!). I could also see it going down a lot sooner, before that is possible. I think Nixonshead has maneuvering room for either scenario or anything in between.

If time and resources are available, what really has to happen is to boost the thing up into some legit graveyard orbit, that has centuries before it decays and very low odds of colliding with anything substantial; enough time to leave our great grandchildren the leisure to figure out a viable disposal plan with far greater capabilities than anyone possessed in the 1990's, or even indeed the 2020's.

 

[CountofDooku]

Reguarding news and the propaganda front of TTL, will we see a Thunder Rising/ Thunder in the Sky-like Soviet version of this?

 

[CMDR_HISTINT]

Maybe in the future ISS days the russians will build a nuclear reactor for the ISS, what would the benefits of that be? Will the ISS be cheaper because of the nuclear reactor without the need for kilograms of massive solar panels?

 

[e of pi]

Maybe in the future ISS days the russians will build a nuclear reactor for the ISS, what would the benefits of that be? Will the ISS be cheaper because of the nuclear reactor without the need for kilograms of massive solar panels?

Not really likely to be cheaper, might be more expensive.