A perpetual Cold War: An alternate 20th and 21st Century Timeline

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Justinian

Justinian

Banned
So I tried doing this timeline before and I thought it might be fun to actually finish it I was using a style of telling it through excerpts from history books. It was kind of interesting, but it actually made it somewhat difficult to actually describe things and kind of got dry. I also started somewhat too early. I'm writing the timeline but I want to keep it collaborative so if you have ideas, criticism or comments please go ahead. I want to try to be realistic as possible. I want to accelerate everything to 1989 so I would really appreciate input to help me do that. The original divergence begins in 1984/1985.


Romanov Ascendant
"Romanov consolidated his power quickly, effectively and brutally. He demonstrated the totalitarian tendencies of his Czarist namesakes" - Keith Jones, American Historian
It had become clear by the mid 1980's that the Politburo's leadership was woefully incapable of keeping up with Reagan's dynamic and aggressive behavior. The Star Wars project was setting off alarms and many believed that the Soviet Union was stagnating. General Secretary Andropov was effective during his tenure, showing that strong leadership from the center could in fact deal with corruption at least to some extent. But his tenure was a short one, his kidney failed and worsened several of his other health conditions, and he died at the age of 69. Before this, it had become clear that a successor would be needed soon. This had set off a leadership struggle within the Politburo, with Gorbachev backed by reformists and senior figures like Andrei Gromyko. Grigory Romanov was the 2nd youngest member of the Politburo, and realized that if he wanted to step up he would need more support. He became very close to Andropov and who became something of a mentor to him. Whether or not this was a genuine friendship or cynical political maneuvering is a matter of debate. With Andropov's support Romanov courted Viktor Grishin and the conservatives. At the March 1985 meeting of the Central Committee, Grishin nominated Romanov. However Gromyko nominated Gorbachev, creating an extremely tense situation. Gromyko withdrew his bid and Romanov was elected unanimously. Gromyko subsequently "retired" and Gorbachev was later removed.

Now the 6th General Secretary of the Communist Party, Romanov had embarked an ambitious campaign of reform. His (relative) youth gave him the dynamism and energy to see it through, despite the difficulty of dealing with the immense byzantine soviet bureaucracy. One of his first serious actions was making the KGB accountable only to the General Secretary. Andropov had imparted in Romanov his hatred of corruption and his fervent belief in the importance of the KGB in safeguarding Lenin's revolution. These moves created dissent, but the rank and file of the Committee of State Security (KGB) had no problem transferring their loyalty for Andropov to Romanov. He used them to eliminate those enemies wherever they stood, cleaning house on the basis of an "anti corruption effort". Outside of the Soviet Union it was criticized as a return to Stalinist purges and seen as a serious violation of human rights. Several UN resolutions on 'Soviet Union's violations of the UN charter's human rights protections' backed by the US and UK were vetoed in the UNSC, but a non binding resolution was passed in the general assembly. While he did clear out many his own opponents in the party or general society, he did step up efforts against corrupt officials with some noticeable benefits. He also continued the Andropov policy of labour discipline, using party volunteers and students to force workers to actually go back to their jobs, rather than sitting around getting drunk.

As the year of 1985 passed to 1986, Romanov continued his reforms. In his May Day speech a new program was announced. It was built on the premise 'developed socialism' had not yet been established, and had stated in full terms that the country had languished under the lethargy of Breznevisim. Romanov made the caveat that Brezhnev did his best for the fraternal brotherhood of peoples in the Soviet Union, but had allowed revisionism to take hold which was something he vowed to correct. This had led to dissent in some of the conservative factions, but they ultimately choose to get behind the leader who appeared to be dealing with the problems in the country. The overall program was called Uprochneniye (Consolidation). It proscribed economic reforms including stricter administration, consolidation of state industries and some elements of self management. More importantly it envised the development and use of an electronic system to allow for more effective economic planning, the system would later be called EGSVT comparable to the Chilian Cybersyn project. He supported the emerging Soviet computer and electronics industry, something he had taken a personal interest in, he also elevated several younger technology experts in the party on a track to Politburo membership. This system once implemented could help deal with some of the inherent problems of a planned economy.

Escalation
The western world had reacted with indignation and fury at the openly defiant General Secretary Romanov. He was compared to Stalin or Hitler, criticized as a totalitarian dictator. The Catholic Church, Amnesty International and other organizations openly criticized them and popular opinion in the United States had decisively turned against the Soviets. As Romanov's new economic program required a vast amount of resources and money, so he choose to back away from several foreign proxy wars. President Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher immediately exploited this, the pro Soviet government in Nicaragua was overthrow by a concerted effort by the Contras. Cuba was also encouraged to withdraw from Angola, resulting in the Afrikaaner regime establishing a puppet government there. They also increased efforts to support and supply Afghan Mujahideen with weapons and support in the form of training. Emboldened by the success in Nicaragua, Reagan increased the level of commitment. Instead of just using American special forces to train the Afghan rebel groups, they were now given free reign to operate in Afghanistan advising and assisting the rebel groups. In what was called the summer of '86, the Soviets suffered extensive losses of men and material. During the climax of the Summer of '86 the CIA-SOG (Special Operations Group) helped a large formation of Afghan rebels storm Kandahar airbase. In the subsequent battle American Special Forces and CIA Operatives directly battled Soviet Soldiers defending the airbase.

"We had spent three days preparing the locals, Kandahar was pretty close to one of our supply tunnels that ran through the Pakistan border. The spooks had paid off the commie Afghans to look the other day when we moved in equipment to heavy to move by tunnel. We had 120mm mortars, light howitzers, recoilless rifles, TOW missiles, Dragon ATGMs and ammo. We also moved a lot of Toyotas and assembled technicals. We had to bring in mercenaries from Pakistan because of our Afghans couldn't read, let alone drive. My older brother died during the Tet Offensive, when the VC stormed the Embassy in Saigon. We were going to make those commie motherfuckers pay...

We let it off from three vectors and created a killzone at the front of the base. I moved up, cover to cover, and knocked out a T55 with a LAW. Saw the fucking turret blow off. We blew the gate open with a car bomb and proceeded into the base. I had my M-14 and started lighting them up. It seemed like they were shocked, they couldn't believe we were attacking them directly. We managed to progress faster than I expected, we brought in our technicals and even more men until they got their shit together. We took a foothold in just 40 minutes. I knew that a counter attack was coming, so I had our men dig in. Let them come to us, waste them, and take the rest of the base. I kept my optics and saw that they had a couple T-55s, a BMP-2 and a T-62. They started approaching, I had some Vietnam vets as marksmen and we picked off some of their infantry. They started hitting us with artillery, we lost men and it couldn't be help. But a mother fucking spook took a piece of shrapnel that took half his face off, square in the middle of the runway. We had to burn him, but the three times we got close we were pushed back. One of the Afghans had a brilliant idea, he fired an RPG and obliterated him. The tanks started approaching so I had the TOW gunner fire a couple missiles at them. We blasted the 62 but missed the T-55, and we lost the TOW when it and its gunner ripped apart by some BMP rounds. My second in command radioed in, they saw Hinds approaching from the north. We waited until they got into shooting distance, and as they started strafing us we let off a Stinger and knocked it out of the sky. It scared the rest of them on the ground and they retreated, and at that moment I radioed in for the technicals to pursue them..." - Colonel Reggie Green, author of Black Ops: Afghan Battles (1997)


Ultimately the attack was halted and the joint Afghan-American force had to pull out. But not before they destroyed several MiG-23s on the ground and several Hinds in the air. They briefly hoisted an Mujahideen flag from the air traffic control tower, and the entire episode was filmed by the CIA. The attack was a direct escalation and provocation, yet it was also supposed to be presented to the world as the simple actions of freedom fighters against incompetent communist occupiers. Some Afghans were captured by the Spetznaz, as well as some recovered weapons and documents as well as a non burned American body clearly demonstrated to General Secretary Romanov that the Americans were involved in the raid, which had created dissent. The Soviets responded by accusing the Americans of direct involvement, and that this subsequently would justify any and all actions against those who support the Mujahideen. On October 4th 1986, the Soviets launched a massive attack on Pakistani's military and government infrastructure. The Soviets launched ballistic missiles, including OTR-21 Tochkas at Pakistani airbases, radar and command and control facilities. They managed to destroy many Pakistan planes on the ground. The Pakistanis fought back, using their new F-16s and managed to shoot down 19 MiG-23s and 2 MiG-29s, but by the 6th, most of their airforce was destroyed. This also led to an F-16 being recovered by the Soviets when it crashed in Afghanistan. Once the Soviets had air superiority, they systematically targeted and destroyed most of the training camps. Several Guards Armoured Divisions were transported from Germany to Afghanistan to begin systematic clearing operations on the border. Rumors soon emerged of diseases breaking out in the mountain region of Typhus and Scarlet Fever, although little evidence emerged, some Western analysis believe the Soviets may have used biological weapons. General Secretary Romanov's reasoning was that if the Western powers wished to make Afghanistan a wound in which it would bleed the Soviet Union, the only logical move is to close the wound by any means necessary.
 
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Justinian

Banned
Continued
President Reagan was absolutely livid, but many in the world did take the Soviet claims of American involvement seriously. The US promised it would rebuild Pakistan's military and continue its support to Afghan's freedom fighters but other than that it there was little it could do other than starting World War Three. However the US was able to paint the Soviet Union's actions in Pakistan as recklessly aggressive and a demonstration of the danger Communism presented to the free world. It had resulted in an increased popularity in conservative governments in Europe. The American security and military establishment wanted retribution, but couldn't find an avenue for it immediately, but the increased intelligence links and basing in Pakistan led to a new idea in the CIA. The Soviet Union had massive population of Muslims (15% of the total) and many who were especially radicalized by Romanov's leadership style. The CIA was given increased funding to begin development of connections, communications and increased infiltration of Soviet Islamic opposition groups. These efforts would coalesce later.

Domesticity
In 1986, the Soviets both had launched the first module of the MIR Space Station but then also suffered a nuclear disaster in the form of Chernobyl. An RBMK Nuclear reactor exploded due to improper use, and had resulted in a massive leak of radiation. Thousands were affected, and the resulting clean up efforts led to severe economic strain and serious damage. Despite the seriousness of the situation, two individuals named Valery Legasov and Boris Scherbina had managed to limit the scale and oversaw cleaning efforts. They had distinguished themselves and were lauded as heroes. Legasov was given the authority to modernize Soviet Nuclear reactors after the disaster under the Consolidation program, the Soviet Nuclear industry would be unified into one ministry to improve it's adminstrative capabilities.

However, the disaster, Romanov's authoritarian leadership style and the increasing deaths in Afghanistan had led to a wave of dissent in both the Soviet Union and Warsaw pact states. Even the CIA noticed that the level of people being deported to communities in Siberia was increasing. Resistance in Poland was becoming violent, as marshal law was still being enforced. In Gdansk, a particularly violent riot resulted in 10 protestors being killed by security forces. This resulted in even more unrest, and the Soviet Union began moving forces into Poland was a 'friendly' reminder of what may happen if things go to far.

General Secretary Romanov was increasingly paranoid as well as openly ruthless. He also appeared to becoming more narcissistic. Soviet Propaganda began depicting him by the end of 1986 as one of the great socialists and personal defender of the revolution. His likeness was put into school books, and he had no problem accepting pompous statues of him being built by committees eager for his attention. CIA reports suggested that he was a 'degenerate womanizer and functional alcoholic'. He wasn't directly corrupt, choosing to live in apartment that by soviet standards was of high quality, was fairly spartan for leader of a global superpower. He had also began dictating a book which he claimed would continue the literary tradition of Lenin, and would soon be required reading for any "true soviet". He had also massively curtailed the autonomy of many of the constituent republics of the USSR.
 
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Justinian

Banned
Calm Before the Storm
Following the summer of '86 in Afghanistan, the conflict had begun to wind down. By destroying the Pakistani training camps, most of the routes in which the Mujahideen received supplies and support. They were for the most part regulated to the mountains where some reports suggested that both chemical and biological weapons were used to decimate them. Pakistan had made several complaints to the UN but was ignored. The US increased sanctions against the USSR with little effect. Despite a few close calls, when Soviet and American aircraft had targeted each other the tension began to cool off. The Soviets had generally stopped actively trying to overthrow governments so it could reduce its military budget to support its ambitious twelfth 5 year plan and EGSVT. They had demonstrated that they would not tolerate western meddling in Afghanistan and had managed to generally pacify it's country side despite a continuing low intensity insurgency waged from the aforementioned mountains. The year of 1987 proceeded smoothly, dissent relaxed also as the economic reforms began to see some success. Increased KGB activity was detected in the US and Europe, appearing to be stealing western computer technology to make up the gaps in which the Soviets were behind. However in May, a small aircraft piloted by Mathias Rust was shot down by the 54th Air Defence Corp when it failed to respond to an IFF signal. It was later revealed that it was a West German named Mathias Rust who had piloted his aircraft in Soviet airspace for unknown reasons. This was met by condemnation, but ultimately it was acknowledged that he had illegally flown into restricted airspace.

By 1988, the foundational infrastructure for EGSVT had been finished, and two new manufacturing complexes for electronics and computers were finished, one near Leningrad and the other near Minsk. Two more were slated to be finished by September, one near Vilnius and the other at Vladivostok. The increasing use of computers in administration and economic management as well the increased authoritarian methods had resulted in economic growth. Previously, it was normal for entire trains of produce to be left to rot before it would even begin to be distributed to stores, but the improvements had led to better distribution. Now it was possible to actually procure meat or coffee from a store. Instead of waiting for 10 years to be given a low quality lada, you'd only have to wait 3 or 4 years for a somewhat better lada. Televisions no longer had a tendency to catch on fire or bust from simple normal use. People no longer used prada as toilet paper because they could actually get it from a government store. Because consumer good quality was improving, the Soviets could now export some of it's goods, instead of relying exclusively on oil and natural resource sales.

Despite an increase in quality of life and decrease in overall dissent, those that opposed the regime in the Warsaw Pact states and Soviet Union increasingly radicalized. This was beginning to become a clear problem in Poland and the central Asian republics. In February a bomb destroyed a newspaper office operated by the Polish United Workers Party and wounded two people who were inside cleaning at the time. In Azerbaijan in Sumgait, on the 27th, riots broke out between Azeris and Armenians. Local police initially attempted to quell the riots, but subsequently deserted their posts. Violence escalated as weapons were taken from police and military stores, and possible foreign interference. Armenians were deliberately targeted with murder, rape and vicious beatings. Several armed groups declared this as the beginning of a Jihad against the "satanic atheism" and Soviet State. Communist party officials were also targeted, but most were evacuated immediately. By the 28th it was regulated to General Secretary Romanov, who was in the middle of a "party function" reacted by reportedly throwing a glass against the wall. He couldn't believe that not only would they protest or riot, but actually commit violence against the Soviet Government. The 104th Guards Airborne Division was deployed immediately along with the MVD. They were able to mostly quell the riot and enforce marshal law, but took fire from several sections of the city including the occupied Administration and Police Buildings. Firefights continued into the night with 5 MVD and 1 Soldier killed, and roughly 164 Azeris dead. The Azeri defenders fought to the death, and tanks and BTR-D armoured vehicles had to be brought in to clear them out. By the 29th the city was secure. General Secretary Romanov made a televised address, stating that hooligans had started rioting, and a core group of Islamic terrorists had used ethnic tensions as cover to institute what was in effect a terrorist attack. The Soviet Press however massively downplayed the size of the attack domestically. Western media however labelled them freedom fighters who were rebelling against the Totalitarian Soviet Government.
 
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Justinian

Banned
Western World
The effects of the Soviet Union's resurgence were not initially felt in the domestic sphere of the west, it always existed in the periphery in culture. Romanov's dictatorial policies had actually in effect helped rally political support for anti communist movements in the United States and United Kingdom. President Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher had become even more popular, and had recieved almost near blank checks for military industrial development to deal with the supposed threat. Romanov quickly became a villainized figure in American popular culture, he became a recognizable individual ala Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden. He was parodied in several comedy movies and also a lot more Rock IV and Rambo III esque movies. However people generally became even more fearful of world war three and the possible apocalypse hanging over their heads. American politicians and the public believed that the only way to prevent this was to ensure peace through superior firepower. The US defence budget had reached the highest level expenditure in history, maxing at 700 billion dollars a year. Numerous secret projects were started, including stealth attack helicopters, ramped up mass production of the F-117, B-2 and the YF-23 and YF-22 programs were fast tracked. The American military establishment believe they needed to gain the capability to win a nuclear war with the Soviet Union, and that if they had that leverage they could easily be contained.

In France and West Germany, the indigenous communist movements had been bolstered by additional KGB support and the aggressive propaganda produced by the Soviet Union. Although their electoral popularity had only improved by a few percentage points, the increasingly right wing drift in both Europe and America helped them recruit many students and intellectuals.
 

Justinian

Banned
Plague
As the year progressed, things looked as if they may quiet down. Since the uprising in Azerbaijan was brutally crushed by the Soviet Army, most opposition groups regulated their activities to simple organizing. Yet under the surface there was a clear tide of Islamist radicalization backed by the CIA's financing as well as Saudi Arabian and Pakistani support. This was reflected in increased confiscations of contraband by the KGB and Soviet Border Guard. The KGB, did notice the religious fundamentalist nature of much of the literature, but didn't connect the larger pattern. The Soviet Border guard caught smugglers with weapons and literature. They were able to curb most of them but no one within the Soviet security bureaucracy connected the dots. The increasing unrest in Islamic areas of the Soviet Union would be exacerbated by an incident that would occur later in the year.

The benefits of the economic development and increased use of electronics had led to the Soviets managing to actually produce surpluses in goods and food that were transfered to the other member states of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). This actively reduced unrest in the general population in the Warsaw Pact states, yet there were still strong liberal movements operating in East Germany, Poland and to a lesser extent Czechoslovakia. Bulgaria had a stronger and more entrenched population of loyalists, but Romania was increasingly destabilized by the erratic leadership style of Ceausescu. The Soviets gradually assisted in paying the debts incurred by each state with its profits, especially with Poland in near crisis. The Soviets and East Germans, energized by the recent success increasingly pushed for increased economic integration, gladly accepted by all except Romania. When revealed to the population however, only exacerbated resentment in the already radicalizing dissenters who interpreted (perhaps rightfully) of this as eroding sovereignty and independence. It was even opposed by mainstream European politicans, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl described it Soviet Imperialism and the largest threat to democracy in Europe. Kohl met with French President Francois Mitterrand and agreed on a summit meeting to discuss a series expansion to the European Community. European Christian Democrat, Liberal and moderate Social Democrat parties increasingly agreed that European integration was the only defence against Communism.

In October, a few survivors of the Afghan Mujahideen managed to make their way to the Afghan-Pakistani border. They wore filthy rags stained with blood and mud. Managing to cross the border during the dead of night, they were recovered by a Pakistani army patrol and after a captain talked with them were immediately airlifted to a military hospital. The ISI arrived almost immediately. Only two of the men were on their feet, the other was almost completely comatose. His arms, torso and legs had open wounds, leaking fluid and pus. He had swollen armpits and neck, his fingers had turned black from gangrene. It didn't take long for him to identified as a victim of Yersinia pestis.
 

Justinian

Banned
Other developments:
As the stalemate in the Iran-Iraq war increasingly grew to Iran's advantage, the Soviets withheld material support in favour of it's stronger ally Syria. President Saddam Hussein was put under pressure from his Shia majority and his own military when the Iranians began pushing towards Basrah. The Soviets demanded in exchange for their support, reconciliation between Iraq and Syria. Hussein agreed, and a summit in March was planned with him, Syrian president Hafez Al Assad and Romanov. Some weapons were delivered initially to prevent the loss of Basrah.
 
I know the Soviets may not be directly supporting proxy wars but what about arms sales to friendly regimes of surplus equipment. Are they making any trade deals with neutral countries outside the Pact?
 
So, what about China? Under Gorbachev relations were normalised, but they never improved to pre-1958 levels. With Romanov I can see things going either way; successful detente would be helpful to counter Western influence in the area, but he might choose to antagonise the Chinese like the crazy demagogue he is. I can definitely see Xiaoping getting along with him, but it depends what Romanov wants.
 
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