A British victory in Cartagena de Indias?

[Vinization]

The Battle of Cartagena de Indias was the biggest engagement of the War of Jenkins' Ear, and it was one of the worst defeats suffered by the British military. Despite outnumbering the Spanish defenders by a huge margin, the British failed to storm Cartagena's fortifications and were decimated by tropical diseases. They were faced with several difficulties, such as the fact they lost their only engineer and that the ladders they had were too short to scale the walls of Fort San Lazaro.

So what if the British were a little bit luckier, and they managed to take Cartagena before they were too weakened by illness? This was one of Spain's largest seaports in the Americas, and IIRC the exit point of the Andes' silver production. I assume Madrid would try to take it back, but, assuming it failed to do so, would it be forced to seek terms with Britain? If so, what could the peace treaty look like? London would definitely retain the right to sell enslaved people to the Spanish colonies, at the very least.

 

[Taunay]

Did Britain have interest in annexing any Spanish colony?
Also, I remember this quote made by the OP:

Juan Santos Atahualpa led a rebellion against the Spanish authorities in Peru, specifically in the jungles east of the Andes, from 1742 until 1756. As his name suggested, he claimed to be Atahualpa's reincarnation, and sought to restore the Inca Empire. Though his forces never entered the Andes, save for a three day stay in Andamarca, the Spanish never defeated them: the rebellion petered out after his death from natural causes.

Given Spain was at war with Britain at the beginning of his rebellion (the War of Jenkins' Ear) it's easy to think of a POD: the British score a major victory during said war (maybe they capture Cartagena or, better yet, follow their original plan, go for Havana and take it) and Madrid is forced to raise taxes. This leads to a surge of discontent among native Peruvians which Juan Santos is able to capitalize on, turning an annoying but small rebellion into an all out war.

- https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ost-opportunities.543010/page-2#post-24285872

 

[unprincipled peter]

I think the British still have to face the foe of tropical disease. It may not be as bad because they're not stuck crowded on ships, but they're still going to suffer. Still, they have achieved a victory. Their ability to further project power is greatly diminished for a while, though.

Would this be enough to knock Spain out of the war?

OTL, this battle marked the end of major operations in the WoJE. Concurrently with the battle, the War of Austrian Succession was flaring up, and both sides switched focus. Spain wanted thrones in Italy for younger infantes. Britain wanted to stop France/Prussia. Does British victory in Cartagena change things? Elizabeth Farnese, de facto ruler in Spain, was pretty intent on Italian objectives. She knew her husband was nearing the end, and the heir to Spain was not her child. I'm thinking OTL switching of focus and results happens TTL.

So, what does the peace treaty look like? Spain has to give up something to get Cartagena back. Spain made minimal gains in Italy, and Britain has nothing to gain by denying them to Spain. Perhaps, in this alt war, Spain has put a little more effort into attempting a colonial gain to use as a bargaining chit. OTL, they failed in Georgia. Maybe with a little more effort, they succeed, and trade it back. I suspect that Spanish victory in Georgia would trigger a British response, and the northerly colonies are a good springboard/support, so I doubt Spain could hold Georgia til the end of the WoAS, and they might even lose Florida in the process. Or maybe Spain manages to take an island. I wouldn't put money on it, so if we assume the war ends with Spain making no territorial gains to trade, they're going to have to give up economic trade concessions.

Overall, I suspect not much would change.

hold on, a thought: Philippe died in '45/46. There were concerns that his successor, Ferdinand, would drop out of the WoAS. He had tepid motivation to put his brother on a throne. In the end, he stayed the course, although didn't really put much effort in. Perhaps here, he agrees to end Spanish efforts in Italy in return for Cartagena. WoAS was mostly over by then, but freeing up Austrian troops might allow for some last minute advantage for Austria and their British ally.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Did Britain have interest in annexing any Spanish colony?
Also, I remember this quote made by the OP:

- https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ost-opportunities.543010/page-2#post-24285872

I'm sure Britain would love to have Cuba or Puerto Rico, with Florida being another possibility. Is Spain desperate enough to give up either of the islands? PR, maybe. Cuba is a tough prize to give up. Florida might be in play. It would push Spain completely away from the British North American colonies. I don't really understand the reasoning, but Spain saw St Augustine as an important protection for their sailing route to/from the Caribbean, but loss of Florida might be the easiest pill to swallow.

Maybe we get to see the long sought after British Argentina!!!!

 

[Taunay]

Maybe we get to see the long sought after British Argentina!!!!

Finally a British Argentina that involves a POD before 1800.
Also, with a possible mass rebellion in South America, there's not much Spain can leverage and many of its troops would be have to be sent to quell the insurgency, making the Spanish position even weaker than IOTL

 

[Vinization]

Also, I remember this quote made by the OP:

- https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ost-opportunities.543010/page-2#post-24285872

😁

Did Britain have interest in annexing any Spanish colony?

I don't think so, other than maybe Florida. Their main concern was trade IIRC.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Britain could also seek to simply keep the port/city. I admit, I'm not all that well versed on New Grenada, so I don't know what this would mean for Spanish South America.

With a more substantial loss to Britain, I wonder how this would affect Ferdinand's pro/neutral British mentality in the 1750s?

 

[Vinization]

Britain could also seek to simply keep the port/city. I admit, I'm not all that well versed on New Grenada, so I don't know what this would mean for Spanish South America.

With a more substantial loss to Britain, I wonder how this would affect Ferdinand's pro/neutral British mentality in the 1750s?

I don't think Cartagena would serve as anything other than a naval base to the British in the Caribbean (and they already have Jamaica for that), since Spain would just export its silver through another port. As for the second question, AFAIK when Spain joined the Seven Years' War everything was over except the shouting, and they got punished for it hard by losing Havana and Manila. Had Madrid intervened earlier, when the war began, things could've been very different.

There's also a chance they stay out of it entirely and focus on solving their various domestic issues, which would be heightened by the inevitable financial losses caused by their defeat in the War of Jenkins' Ear.

 

[unprincipled peter]

AFAIK when Spain joined the Seven Years' War everything was over except the shouting, and they got punished for it hard by losing Havana and Manila. Had Madrid intervened earlier, when the war began, things could've been very different.

There's also a chance they stay out of it entirely and focus on solving their various domestic issues, which would be heightened by the inevitable financial losses caused by their defeat in the War of Jenkins' Ear.

Carlos III, taking the throne in 1759, was pretty gungho to get into the war, and, as you said, stupidly (my view) jumped in after the war was lost. Things have to be pretty bad in Spain for him to stay out of it.

I, too, think things could have been different if Spain had entered the war early. France was looking in good shape for a while, then things went south (an understatement). Spain may have swayed the balance into victory early. This notion is tempered by Spain's military not really being very good. They may have just bumbled around, and Britain could have gone after Spain instead of French North America - good for France, but not so good for Spain. Spain probably doesn't go after Portugal, as Spanish Queen Barbara, who had a lot of influence in Spain, was from Portugal. Maybe Spain attacks British North America from Florida.

 

[GunterW]

Cartagena is traded for something else, I doubt they’ll keep it, the reason for its existence is to ship bullion and goods from the mainland to Spain and bring back supplies, as well as being an important naval base for the Spanish. The British already have Jamaica as a naval base, so I don’t see it being particularly valuable to them as it is surrounded by hostile territory and can only be resupplied by sea. The moment the fleet is drawn somewhere else, the Spanish will starve the garrison and or diseases will start to break out.

What I see here is a sudden change of policy towards Spain’s possessions in the Americas, seeing how vulnerable they are, it might convince the authorities to reform certain aspects, provide more autonomy, fund new fortresses along strategic positions and the most interesting aspect of all, would be if some version of the Aranda plan is implemented at some point during Carlos’ III reign on the precedent that the Viceroyalties are vulnerable.